The (only!) official ES all things Kirk Cousins should we shouldn't we off-season thread.

[Tsailand]

2 hours ago, NewCliche21 said:

There is no difference whatsoever between this and a holdout over a demand for a new contract.  

 

There's a huge difference.  The holdout is a game of chicken where, if neither side compromises, the player doesn't play and doesn't get paid -- an outcome neither side truly wants.

 

In this case, Kirk is going to play for us and get paid by us in 2017, only question is if his future is here or elsewhere. He's made it clear that he plans to walk once we stop tagging him. The long term deal he'll end up signing on the open market in 2018 or 2019 is likely more than he's even asking so far, so he has little incentive to do a deal unless we blow him away with our offer.

 

We don't have any real leverage here except benching O-line starters to try to get him hurt, like Gruden allegedly did to RG3 in the 2015 preseason.

[WelshSkinsFan]

I think the issue of leverage is given far more relevance than it really deserves in this discussion.  Money is the only lever either side is truly concerned with, all of the other side issues and scenarios are just window dressing.  In an ideal world Kirk may want to be reunited with Kyle in San Francisco, he might even want to go full Chris Simms and get Kyle's initials tattooed on his leg but he is enough of a realist to understand that there is only a very slim shot of everything aligning the way he wants.

 

Kirk and his agent have a contract value in mind that is acceptable to them and when that offer is placed in front of them they are not going to turn it down just in case something better comes along in 2018 or 2019.  The NFL is a year to year business and if Kirk can hit the jackpot now you can bet he will floor the pedal in that minivan on his way to the signing.  I cannot be certain that Bruce will give him what he wants but if I was betting I would say he will.  Many other posters have expressed far more eloquently than I can the fact that finding another Kirk could be a 20 year crapshoot of frustration and failure, whilst I don't think Bruce is executive of the year he is an NFL lifer and surely understands this as well as we do. 

[SamMills51]

Ian Rapoport says on twitter that LB Trent Murphy is suspended for 4 games per violation of PEDs.

[Morneblade]

47 minutes ago, SamMills51 said:

Ian Rapoport says on twitter that LB Trent Murphy is suspended for 4 games per violation of PEDs.

 

Wrong thread

[Taylor 36]

3 hours ago, Tsailand said:

He's made it clear that he plans to walk once we stop tagging him.

When and where did he make it clear that he is going to leave once we stop tagging him?

[Gibbit]

On ‎1‎/‎2‎/‎2017 at 9:36 AM, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

 

Lol yep fans run players out of town.

 

How the **** did Jason Campbell play here so long??? 

 

And then you arbitrarily throw out a time frame to become elite based on nothing. Ok

 

 

the guy wants 25M without even winning a ****ing playoff game. You guys are acting like we ready to run Tom Brady out of town. This isn't unreasonable 

Its not unreasonable, its not illogical, but its really dumb.

The guy is playing the position at a really high level. Hes been running a one-sided offense, a one-dimensional team at a really high level.

 

Mabye we should let him test the market, I don't know....but if he walks over 5mil or less and goes on to do great things for some other team, it will be rock bottom.

 

A flacco situation is just the lesser of the "blow my brains out" extremes that I could imagine here

[wit33]

Oh this make believe "market" every one feels they know about

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

9 hours ago, wit33 said:

this make believe "market" every one feels they know about

 

 

 

Maybe people/national media/local media are off on what Kirk's market is but even if so what makes this one wild is teams rarely let their quarterbacks test the market period unless they feel that QB is disposable.   The Redskins at the moment are potentially working uncharted waters.  And speaking for myself, its tough for me to trust the instincts of a team that has botched the QB position for over two decades plus where its become almost comical the number of draft picks wasted and money spent on failure. The same franchise let two good QBs out of their grasp that enjoyed success elsewhere. 

 

The Jason Campbell references that some make are about as apples to oranges as it gets -- JC's numbers weren't in the ball park of Kirk's.  When we let JC go, much talk already of him being a bust or at best mediocre.

 

I still think this gets done before the July 15th deadline.  Though I admit I hate reading all the pessimism on it from the locals and national media-- so I don't blame anyone who is worried about it happening.  For example, Mike Jones has veered from being one of the more optimistic guys about a deal getting done to being very pessimistic.

[Taylor 36]

11 hours ago, wit33 said:

Oh this make believe "market" every one feels they know about

 

 

Make believe market?  Is this a serious post?  The market is as real as the keyboard you are using to type your post.  I guess every person with the simplest clue about football that works in the league, covers the league in the media, is a fan of the league is living in the land of make believe and only you are in reality where there is no market?  Come on, man!  You have to stop thinking everyone else is lost except for you, or put down the pipe and needle.

[Morneblade]

17 hours ago, Tsailand said:

 

There's a huge difference.  The holdout is a game of chicken where, if neither side compromises, the player doesn't play and doesn't get paid -- an outcome neither side truly wants.

 

In this case, Kirk is going to play for us and get paid by us in 2017, only question is if his future is here or elsewhere. He's made it clear that he plans to walk once we stop tagging him. The long term deal he'll end up signing on the open market in 2018 or 2019 is likely more than he's even asking so far, so he has little incentive to do a deal unless we blow him away with our offer.

 

We don't have any real leverage here except benching O-line starters to try to get him hurt, like Gruden allegedly did to RG3 in the 2015 preseason.

 

Dude, did you forget you tinfoil hat? This post is nuts.....

[Rskins06]

No one really knows KCs true market value.  Everyone knows what his value is under the franchise tag, but that is not a "real market value".  We don't know what his true market value is, he has never tested the market.  They wouldn't even negotiate a LTD until they tagged him, which is smart but does not indicate his value.  On the open market, he may only get an $16-$20m offer and not the $24m he is apparently asking for.  

 

But honestly, who cares at this point.  Just get a LTD done or trade him and get something in return for him, as next yr, if he walks, you get nothing.  If the FO is unwilling  to meet or if KC is unwilling to meet somewhere in middle, move on.  

[petedaddy]

i think the best judge of market right now is that the organization decided to use the exclusive franchise tag.  I don't think there is anyway they would have done that if they didn't expect kirk to receive some pretty major offers that they were unwilling to match

 

the exclusive tag gave them some control of the situation, and guaranteed at least one more year to try and get this figured out

[mistertim]

45 minutes ago, petedaddy said:

i think the best judge of market right now is that the organization decided to use the exclusive franchise tag.  I don't think there is anyway they would have done that if they didn't expect kirk to receive some pretty major offers that they were unwilling to match

 

the exclusive tag gave them some control of the situation, and guaranteed at least one more year to try and get this figured out

 

Unless they talked to other GMs and coaches from other teams about what they would pay for Kirk if he hit the market then they don't know what his actual market value is, and neither do we. The tag amount is what it is and it could mean a few things. Could just be a placeholder until we get a LTD done and they do think he's worth somewhere around that much but are squabbling on the details. Could be that we're simply stuck at the moment because we don't want to pay what he wants as far as guaranteed money and per year money but also don't want to let him walk for nothing and didn't think anyone would give up multiple high round picks and a huge contract for him (probably right). Could be that the Skins are simply incompetent when it comes to this stuff. 

 

There seems to be an assumption here by most that he would hit the market and immediately get a gargantuan contract offer from multiple teams but we don't know that. Maybe some teams study his film and like him but don't think he'd be a great fit in their systems. Maybe some teams watch that film and say they like him but they see some issues in his game that worry them. Maybe some teams have too many other holes to fill before they are anywhere close to contending for a SB and don't think they should blow their load right now on a QB who will probably be 33 or so and at or close to the end of his contract by the time they have the other pieces in place to be legit contenders. Maybe a team would rather draft their own guy this year or next and have him grow with the team they're planning to built up.

 

Or who knows. Maybe there WOULD be some teams who think he's elite and will give him a ginormous contract. But all NFL fans tend to overvalue their players so the assumption that out there on the market he'd also be viewed as worth becoming the highest paid QB in the NFL might not necessarily be true at all.

[petedaddy]

36 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Unless they talked to other GMs and coaches from other teams about what they would pay for Kirk if he hit the market then they don't know what his actual market value is

 

If they didn't do that, then they aren't doing their jobs which may be giving them too much credit, but you have to at least believe they had an idea of what the offers were going to be.

 

The franchise tag amount can't be completely discounted as a basis for market value either... Yes, the Redskins may view part of it as insurance that he doesn't get away but they certainly wouldn't agree to pay colt McCoy 24 million this year, so there has to be some ballpark of market value there for the Redskins to agree to pay it

 

They may be thinking that if they buy 5 dozen eggs they should get a discount per dozen but Kirk isn't offering volume discounts at this time

[mistertim]

37 minutes ago, petedaddy said:

 

If they didn't do that, then they aren't doing their jobs which may be giving them too much credit, but you have to at least believe they had an idea of what the offers were going to be.

 

The franchise tag amount can't be completely discounted as a basis for market value either... Yes, the Redskins may view part of it as insurance that he doesn't get away but they certainly wouldn't agree to pay colt McCoy 24 million this year, so there has to be some ballpark of market value there for the Redskins to agree to pay it

 

They may be thinking that if they buy 5 dozen eggs they should get a discount per dozen but Kirk isn't offering volume discounts at this time

 

Then if they DID talk to other teams behind the scenes to see what they thought he was worth on the open market (or in draft picks in a trade), maybe the numbers they got from said teams are the reason they apparently aren't looking to pay Kirk as much as he wants? And I'm not "completely discounting" the franchise tag. I'm just saying that the tag amount doesn't automatically mean that's how much he would actually be offered or worth in the open market for some of the possible reasons I posted above. 

[wit33]

@Skinsinparadise

 

Not acknowledging Kirk's participation in the current situation isn't right. Some appear to be willing to pay Kirk whatever due to last 20 years of perceived suffering as a fan-- business doesn't work that way. 

 

Kirks situation is extremely unique, in regards to the timing of him playing well as it related to his rookie deal. 

 

3 hours ago, Taylor 36 said:

Make believe market?  Is this a serious post?  The market is as real as the keyboard you are using to type your post.  I guess every person with the simplest clue about football that works in the league, covers the league in the media, is a fan of the league is living in the land of make believe and only you are in reality where there is no market?  Come on, man!  You have to stop thinking everyone else is lost except for you, or put down the pipe and needle.

 

I'm practicing the exact opposite kind of thinking, in that I recognize I have zero idea of what the "market" is for Kirk and what dollar amount he'd be given. 

 

No team has offered 2 Firsts though. 

 

 

[petedaddy]

4 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Then if they DID talk to other teams behind the scenes to see what they thought he was worth on the open market (or in draft picks in a trade), maybe the numbers they got from said teams are the reason they apparently aren't looking to pay Kirk as much as he wants? And I'm not "completely discounting" the franchise tag. I'm just saying that the tag amount doesn't automatically mean that's how much he would actually be offered or worth in the open market for some of the possible reasons I posted above. 

 

that is surely a possibility, but if they talked to other teams and he wasn't going to get that much on the open market, then you don't even franchise tag him at all

 

if i know that a store is selling eggs for $1 per dozen, then i surely don't come in with an offer of $1.50 per dozen (i must really be hungry for eggs today - maybe it's the Easter thing)

 

in my opinion, the more likely scenario is that the Redskins felt Kirk would get a fairly massive offer that they aren't ready to pay now

 

that's based off of nothing other than my opinion, and trying to read the tea leaves of why they have made the moves they have made

 

but your basic point is taken, no one knows 100% for sure what his market value is...some "in the know" have speculated he would be the highest paid player in the league if he were to have tested the market this year, but that is their speculation too and nothing is known until the contract is signed

[mistertim]

And it's also a complete possibility that the Skins FO is simply incompetent, unfortunately, and have simply misplayed this thing the whole way and screwed themselves. 

[petedaddy]

5 minutes ago, mistertim said:

And it's also a complete possibility that the Skins FO is simply incompetent, unfortunately, and have simply misplayed this thing the whole way and screwed themselves. 

 

That's a very likely scenario too

[wit33]

Just an example of a few guys who'd say  $@@&&@&$&& to your MARKET: Hankins, Pryor, Brown, Powe etc. 

[mistertim]

2 minutes ago, wit33 said:

Just an example of a few guys who'd say  $@@&&@&$&& to your MARKET: Hankins, Pryor, Brown, Powe etc. 

 

Well, to be fair, my friends on the other side of this debate do have a valid point when they say that QB is, especially in today's NFL, almost always going to be valued more than almost any other position outside of maybe an elite pass rusher like Von Miller.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, wit33 said:

@Skinsinparadise

 

Not acknowledging Kirk's participation in the current situation isn't right. Some appear to be willing to pay Kirk whatever due to last 20 years of perceived suffering as a fan-- business doesn't work that way. 

 

Kirks situation is extremely unique, in regards to the timing of him playing well as it related to his rookie deal. 

 

 

Kirk played well at the tail end of his contract, that's true.   But regardless of how we got here -- the fact that a team two years in a row franchised their QB is unprecedented unless I am missing an instance.   I can't recall so much buzz about an existing starting QB on one team being talked about bolting to another team which allegedly is willing to pay that QB what he wants.

 

I agree with the notion that if Bruce gets it done by July 15th and gets Kirk at a decent price, then its a job well done.  But if instead they transition Kirk next year and end up paying Kirk 72 million in guaranteed dollars for 3 seasons or they let him hit FA and at best get third round compensation -- its an epically misplayed hand by Bruce.  We won't know though until it plays out.  

[wit33]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Kirk played well at the tail end of his contract, that's true.   But regardless of how we got here -- the fact that a team two years in a row franchised their QB is unprecedented unless I am missing an instance.   I can't recall so much buzz about an existing starting QB on one team being talked about bolting to another team which allegedly is willing to pay that QB what he wants.

 

I agree with the notion that if Bruce gets it done by July 15th and gets Kirk at a decent price, then its a job well done.  But if instead they transition Kirk next year and end up paying Kirk 72 million in guaranteed dollars for 3 seasons or they let him hit FA and at best get third round compensation -- its an epically misplayed hand by Bruce.  We won't know though until it plays out.  

 

Im somewhat in the middle with all this, but will always see each sides position from a business standpoint.

 

Could you not say it's unprecedented for a QB to openly be okay with playing under the franchise tag? It's shrewd business by Kirks camp... good for them, I guess. I'll always side with wanting to get the best deal for a player. 

 

Who knows, 10 years from now Kirk could be lauded as the one who started these kind of tactics and it becomes the norm for QBs, but it sucks as a Skins fan. QBs generally are above all this, due to the ridiculous money they get, but of course, not with "our" guy. 

 

[elkabong82]

4 hours ago, petedaddy said:

 

That's a very likely scenario too

 

But not that likely given the team is good with contracts and securing players long-term.

 

The most likely scenario is the team wanted more than half a season of good play to justify a large ivestment, so they tagged Kirk. Then, Kirk had a good 2nd season, so they exclusive tagged him that way no teams can match because they want him, and now they're negotiating and following the same schedule as most star players on tags working towards LTDs. 

 

I get the panic and concern, most everyone wants Kirk back long-term and FO many people doubt. In the end I believe the deal gets done. There's too much pressure for them not to do so, especially since such failure would be fresh in everyone's minds at the start of camp and through the season, and fan-FO relations are already strained. 

 

Kirk has a lot of incentive to stay here, which too many on here overlook. But even still, the team is going to have to concede and come closer to what Kirk wants than what they want.

[Morneblade]

I think there are a couple things that people are either forgetting or not really understanding with this. Kirk's guaranteed salary in a LTD is 98% going to be LESS than it is right now, and we were still able to go out and resign our players we wanted and bring in others. Our track record on getting talent has not been great, but our track record on getting team friendly contracts has been very good. The first numbers that come out will seem very high. And I think the guaranteed money will be a bigger % of the contracts we have done this year.

 

But Kirk is not going to put us in the poor house. We're still going to have the ability to sign people.

 

The other thing I would like to put out there is something that someone (I can't remember who) brought up about market price, and why Kirk should not be make more than someone like Rodgers.

 

If EVERYONE played on one year contracts, this might be the case. Andrew Luck has no business making more either, but he does. Why? He contract was negotiated more recently. The cap was larger then it was when Rodgers last did his contract.  And this will all be forgotten when the next QB gets a new deal that is bigger than everyone elses, which might even happen this year.

 

When Rodgers, or Ryan, or Brees, (ect) is up for a new contract, it will dwarf what Cousins gets this year. The cap will be bigger, and QB's still get paid more than anyone else. Heck, you might see another Oswieler type signing, a unproven guy that gets a bigger contract than Cousins does, and he flames out. Or a guy Andy Dalton or Ryan Tannehill get a much bigger contract next time he is up. It's going to happen.