Combo Thread: Redskins Flex Scheduling Updates/Playoff Positioning Updates

[Warhead36]

Think I read/heard somewhere that Peterson is hurt. Also one CB can't really lockdown our offense with how many weapons we have. And playing in Arizona will mean great weather condition for Cousins to throw.

I also expect our pass rush to feast this week. Cards OL is atrocious and Palmer is literally a statue back there. David Johnson worries me though.

[London Kev]

5 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Think I read/heard somewhere that Peterson is hurt. Also one CB can't really lockdown our offense with how many weapons we have. And playing in Arizona will mean great weather condition for Cousins to throw.

I also expect our pass rush to feast this week. Cards OL is atrocious and Palmer is literally a statue back there. David Johnson worries me though.

Somebody better buy Hopkins a visor.

[TheGoodBits]

5 games left. One we absolutely should win (Chicago), one I'd feel bad about losing (Eagles), and three that I view as basically toss ups (Arizona, Carolina, Giants). If we take care of business against the Bears and Eagles, we just need one win against AZ, Car, NYG. Alternatively if we drop one of the games against CHI or PHI we have other winnable games we can make up for them with.

On the flip side, the relatively easy task of winning 3 out of 5 becomes a much more menacing need to win 3 out of 4 if we lose to AZ this weekend.

Overall I'm feeling pretty good about where we sit with 5 weeks left, but will be feeling a lot better if we beat the Cardinals this week.

[campbellcooleyconnection]

We all know these guys aren't going to make it easy for themselves or us right?When is the last time that's ever happened? I would LOVE it just not expecting it based on Skins recent history.

[kleese]

The GB win wraps up week 12. I'm not quite as thrilled about it as everyone else-- I still view GB as a mild threat to win out so I was kind of hoping to get them eliminated. But for the here and now an Eagles loss does help. 

So here is where we sit... 

Teams that have 7+ losses and have been "eliminated" from contention with Redskins:

Bears, Panthers, 49ers, Rams. Those teams can only help us now. 

Teams with exactly 6 losses that are one loss away from elimination:

Eagles, Packers, Saints, Cardinals. Of these four teams I only view GB as being a threat to possibly finish out 5-0. Their toughest remaining game is Seattle in Lambeau. 

Teams with exactly 5 losses that are two losses away from elimination:

Vikings, Bucs. Currently, these are our two most obvious enemies. 

Three other teams to watch:

Giants, Lions, Falcons. While at this moment they all might seem irrelevant, they could all wind up going head to head with us depending on circumstances. 

There are only two teams that can potentially pass us this week: Vikings and Bucs. We would need to lose and one or both of them would have to win. 

 

[Yeen80]

Looks like the NFL moved New Orleans at Tampa Bay on December 11 to 4:25pm. Now they have 3 games at that time so I'm pretty sure were are staying put at 1pm

Update: NFL.com has it at 4:25....espn still has it at 1:00pm so who knows

[kleese]

5 hours ago, Yeen80 said:

Looks like the NFL moved New Orleans at Tampa Bay on December 11 to 4:25pm. Now they have 3 games at that time so I'm pretty sure were are staying put at 1pm

Update: NFL.com has it at 4:25....espn still has it at 1:00pm so who knows

Yes that's an official change. We are staying put at 1pm that day and thus continues our streak of not playing an east coast 4pm game (regular season). That's a bummer, I prefer the 4:25 slot. 

This also means our only other flex possibility is week 17 at this point. Panthers and Bears games will not move. 

[Yeen80]

3 hours ago, kleese said:

Yes that's an official change. We are staying put at 1pm that day and thus continues our streak of not playing an east coast 4pm game (regular season). That's a bummer, I prefer the 4:25 slot. 

This also means our only other flex possibility is week 17 at this point. Panthers and Bears games will not move. 

My personal opinion is that FOX moved NO @ TB and kept us at 1pm was to have some sort of "lead" game at 1pm on FOX. If you look at the potential matchups at 1pm...they are pretty weak. Losing NO @ TB in the early window doesnt exactly hurt because that game would probably only be seen in the southeastern part of the US.

If FOX moved our game to 4:25 it would really only be seen in the Philly/DC area since Seattle/Green Bay is the lead game and is sure to generate nationwide interest regardless of record. Atlanta/LA will only be seen in Georgia and Southern California

Kleese- Just curious, why do you prefer the 4:25pm games? I actually prefer the 1pm games for the simple fact that if we win I can enjoy the rest of my day and be productive.

[kleese]

8 minutes ago, Yeen80 said:

My personal opinion is that FOX moved NO @ TB and kept us at 1pm was to have some sort of "lead" game at 1pm on FOX. If you look at the potential matchups at 1pm...they are pretty weak. Losing NO @ TB in the early window doesnt exactly hurt because that game would probably only be seen in the southeastern part of the US.

If FOX moved our game to 4:25 it would really only be seen in the Philly/DC area since Seattle/Green Bay is the lead game and is sure to generate nationwide interest regardless of record. Atlanta/LA will only be seen in Georgia and Southern California

Kleese- Just curious, why do you prefer the 4:25pm games? I actually prefer the 1pm games for the simple fact that if we win I can enjoy the rest of my day and be productive.

I've always been a "save for the best for last" kind of guy. I like the build up. 1pm games always have a "JV" feel to me. 4:25 always feels more legit. Sunday Night is my favorite because you get to enjoy an entire Sunday of football with no chance of it being ruined early. When the Skins lose a 1pm it takes so much luster off the rest of the day. I like to make an event out of the day with the Redskins game being the crescendo. Hard to do that when we play at 1pm (noon where I live). Monday Nights are cool too, but then you have to wait a full day....so SNF is my favorite time slot, followed by 4:25.

I hated the London kickoff. Our day was over before everyone else's was started.

For playoffs, I PRAY for NOT being one of the Saturday games-- and certainly not the first game on Saturday. Last two times we made it I got my wish and we were the 4:25 Sunday game...in both instances at least I enjoyed the weekend fully before we got eliminated.

[Cooleyfan1993]

@kleese, if we make it to the playoffs and face either the Falcons or Lions, which day/timeslot do you think the league would have us in? Saturday or Sunday game? Early game or late game?

[kleese]

27 minutes ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

@kleese, if we make it to the playoffs and face either the Falcons or Lions, which day/timeslot do you think the league would have us in? Saturday or Sunday game? Early game or late game?

Way too early because so much is predicated on the other teams that make it. The league mixed it up last year, throwing everyone for a loop by cross-flexing games on wild card weekend. In the past it was always one AFC and one NFC game on each day--- but last year the two NFC games were on Sunday. Typically speaking, the network that carries the Saturday primetime game is given some priority. The least attractive game almost always gets buried in that early Saturday slot.

If the playoffs ended today, the match-ups are somewhat shockingly unattractive from a network standpoint.

Redskins at Lions

Giants at Falcons

Dolphins at Ravens

Chiefs at Texans 

Only the Giants-Falcons game would be one the networks would fight over. By default, I think our game would be the second most compelling/sought after. If things stayed exactly like this for the next five weeks (highly unlikely) my prediction would be:

Early Saturday (Chiefs at Texans)

Primetime Saturday (Giants at Falcons)

Early Sunday (Dolphins at Ravens)

Late Afternoon Sunday (Redskins at Lions)

If a team like Green Bay or Pittsburgh winds up hosting, it changes things for sure. If a team like Denver or Oakland winds up hosting a wild card round it also changes things because they can't play in the early Sunday slot.

 

[kleese]

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

If you want to waste away (who doesn't) by getting lost in scenarios the above link is great. You can project every remaining game to see what the playoff picture would look like. With five weeks to go this is still pretty premature, but it's fun. I did my test run with the Redskins finishing 3-2 (splitting the next two and then losing one of last three) and here is what I came up with in terms of playoff picture.  

AFC 1. Patriots 2. Raiders 3. Steelers 4. Colts 5. Chiefs 6. Broncos

NFC 1. Cowboys 2. Seahawks 3. Falcons 4. Packers 5. Giants 6. Redskins

Opening round would be: Redskins at Falcons, Giants at Packers, Chiefs at Colts, and Broncos at Steelers

In that case, you can write down Chiefs at Colts in Sharpie for the first Saturday game. I think you can then bet money that Sat primetime would be Giants at Packers. Although it could be Broncos at Steelers. I would be 90% certain we'd play at Atlanta noon on Sunday with whatever game between Giants and Steelers wasn't on Saturday being the late Sunday game.

[kleese]

Your viewing/rooting guide for this week (games listed in my perceived order of importance to the Redskins):

1. Redskins at Cardinals: Duh, but it does make even more sense considering the Cardinals are one of those teams we want to get their 7th loss. They are currently one away--- if we win this game, we help ourselves while effectively eliminating Arizona from the picture.

2. Cowboys at Vikings: The Bucs have a tougher schedule down the stretch than Minnesota, so the Vikings getting an L here is pretty big for us. We need Minnesota to go 3-2 or worse-- if they win this game, it becomes a little harder to find two more losses for them. They'd pretty much have to lose at Green Bay and then one other to the Jags, Bears, or Colts (with the way Minn has played though, it might be unlikely they win all of those games). Vikings are a popular Vegas pick this week from the boards I'm seeing and many think this is prime letdown spot for Dallas. I'm not sure I believe that, but with Seattle losing last week this isn't a very important game to Dallas at all. Let's hope they are just better and get out of there with a W.

3. Bucs at Chargers: Everyone has their antenna up on the Bucs and it with back to back wins over the Chiefs and Seahawks it makes sense. Tampa has come out of nowhere and we need them to finish 3-2 or worse. Their schedule is pretty tough-- they get the Saints twice and have a road game at Dallas. They finish with the Panthers who could potentially be playing spoiler. If they lose this week, it will be an uphill battle for Tampa, but if they win, they are very much a threat to all NFC wild card contenders, most notably, us. Chargers installed as 3.5 point favorite was interesting to me-- I would have guessed closer to a pick em-- I have a feeling the money will be on the Bucs this Sunday.

4. Giants at Steelers: We need the Giants to finish 1-4 or 0-5 so this might be a long shot now, but their schedule is tough. And if you figure that we play them week 17, what we really need for them to do is to lose 3 of their next four. If they beat Pittsburgh this week, it's all over-- I think you can pencil the Giants in for sure and if Dallas loses to Minnesota, then they suddenly have a shot at the East.

5. Texans at Packers: I said it last night when everyone was happy the Eagles lost-- watch out for Green Bay. I have them making the playoffs now and if they run the table it could hurt us badly. Luckily we only need them to lose one more, but the schedule works well for GB. I give Houston very little chance this Sunday, I think GB rolls.

6. Lions at Saints: Well, this al depends on your thought process. If Minnesota beats Dallas then we FOR SURE want the Saints to beat the Lions. If the Vikings lose, it becomes a little less important, but my thinking here is that no matter what, we want the Saints to win this game. Yes, we need NO to lose one more somewhere along the way, but if Detroit finishes 2-3 or worse (very possible) then they finish behind us-- and it protects us against the Vikings or Packers ending strong. So if Detroit wins, we can cross the Saints off the list, but I'd prefer the Lions lose this one and we deal with the Saints down the road.

6. Eagles at Bengals: This one doesn't register much for me. We only need Philly to lose one more and we play them head to head. They also play the Giants, Cowboys, and at the Ravens. No way do I see them running the table. Not a real threat to me at this point. That's why I'd almost prefer them WIN at Cincy this week. I'd rather not play them when they are down and out.... I know that sounds weird, but if they lose this week, the pressure is pretty much off for them-- they can play loose. If they win they are still in it and the game against us matters to them. Two schools of thought I guess, but I really don't care about this one either way. I won't be watching closely.

7. Chiefs at Falcons: I think it's a long shot that Atlanta would finish 2-3 or worse with their finishing schedule, but if they lose this week it isn't totally far-fetched that they finish 2-2. So I'll say I'm quietly pulling for the Chiefs-- an Atlanta fade would protect us against a Tampa surge.

[Stefanskins]

22 minutes ago, kleese said:

Your viewing/rooting guide for this week (games listed in my perceived order of importance to the Redskins):

 

man o' man, if all of that panned out this week we'd be settin' per-teee

[SkinsPassion4Life]

Big win for the Skins tonight....Vikes lose.

[kleese]

Cowboys help us out... Minnesota now at 6 losses... Only Tampa left at 5. This means the only way we could lose the grip on the 6 seed this week is if we lose and Tampa wins. 

 

Now that Minnesota has lost I'm more indifferent on that Lions-Saints game. Still might be nice for Lions to lose to be a back up in case Minn or GB wins out, but we also need Saints to lose one more so I don't really care either way. 

 

This is also means that as long as we go 3-2, Minn and GB can't both finish ahead of us. They play each other one more time and one of them has to lose. 

 

 

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

Vikings are just running bad right now.  That fumble on the punt return was inexcusable.

 

We gotta find a way to get it done this week in Zona.  Back to back trips to the paloffs would mean a lot to all of us.  

 

Thanks for putting this thread together kleese and keeping it updated.  Kudos.  

[kleese]

3 minutes ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

Vikings are just running bad right now.  That fumble on the punt return was inexcusable.

 

We gotta find a way to get it done this week in Zona.  Back to back trips to the paloffs would mean a lot to all of us.  

 

Thanks for putting this thread together kleese and keeping it updated.  Kudos.  

 

I love this stuff, hopefully it helps to clarify things. For me, winning one of the next two is key. I don't think either individually is a "must" win-- we just don't want to lose them both. And a Bucs loss at SD would certainly help. 

[SkinsPassion4Life]

I really think 8-7-1 has a decent chance to get us in.

 

 

[PartyPosse]

16 minutes ago, SkinsPassion4Life said:

I really think 8-7-1 has a decent chance to get us in.

 

 

I don't. TB is playing strong and has a fairly weak schedule as does Minnesota (Indy, Jax, Chi and GB). 

[Tsailand]

11 minutes ago, SkinsPassion4Life said:

I really think 8-7-1 has a decent chance to get us in.

 

 

The sites I've looked at give us a 10%-20% chance of making playoffs with that record.

 

The good news is that 9-6-1 has about a 70-90% chance of playoffs.

[Nfcbeasts4721]

On 11/28/2016 at 7:25 PM, skinsfan_1215 said:

5 games left. One we absolutely should win (Chicago), one I'd feel bad about losing (Eagles), and three that I view as basically toss ups (Arizona, Carolina, Giants). If we take care of business against the Bears and Eagles, we just need one win against AZ, Car, NYG. Alternatively if we drop one of the games against CHI or PHI we have other winnable games we can make up for them with.

On the flip side, the relatively easy task of winning 3 out of 5 becomes a much more menacing need to win 3 out of 4 if we lose to AZ this weekend.

Overall I'm feeling pretty good about where we sit with 5 weeks left, but will be feeling a lot better if we beat the Cardinals this week.

We won't lose the rest of the year.

38 minutes ago, SkinsPassion4Life said:

Big win for the Skins tonight....Vikes lose.

Wait...****..ya mean I was rooting for the wrong team all night?

[SkinsPassion4Life]

57 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

I don't. TB is playing strong and has a fairly weak schedule as does Minnesota (Indy, Jax, Chi and GB). 

 

TB has a tough schedule...I think they lose at Chargers, at Cowgirls, at Saints....that puts them at 8 losses.

 

Vikings will struggle to win 3 out of 4...they will lose at Packers and at least one other game.

[PartyPosse]

2 hours ago, SkinsPassion4Life said:

 

TB has a tough schedule...I think they lose at Chargers, at Cowgirls, at Saints....that puts them at 8 losses.

 

Vikings will struggle to win 3 out of 4...they will lose at Packers and at least one other game.

4 of the bucs 5 games are against teams under 500.

 

i would also be shocked if Minny DIDN'T win 3 of 4. Indy has no defense and their offensive line won't last against the vikes pass rush. Jacksonville and Chicago are two of the worst teams in football. They too don't face a team above .500.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

I definitely don't see the Packers running on a 6-game winning streak (which is what it would be since they won last weekend). Their defense sucks too much for that to happen and they're 1-4 over their last 5 games. But Rodgers is still a great QB and can get them some wins here and there along the way.

 

As for the Lions and Vikings, I think it's basically which team would you want the Redskins to play in the wildcard?...Whichever team you choose, root for them the rest of the way lol...No guarantee the Skins will end up playing them, but at least there's a realistic chance (this is assuming the Seahawks don't fall completely apart and end up as the #3 seed in the playoffs).

 

The goal from here on out (besides the Redskins winning out, of course) should be to want as many teams to reach 7 losses as possible. If the Bucs lose to the Chargers and the Skins beat the Cardinals, that means every team fighting the Redskins for that last playoff spot only has to lose once to basically wrap up at least the #6 seed for the Skins. And I'm pretty sure each of those teams below the Skins will lose at least once. In that scenario, the Skins only need to go 2-2 over their last 4 games...and if they put together a 3-game winning streak starting this weekend, they could wrap up a playoff spot with 2 games left. I don't think the Redskins have done that since 1991.