Combo Thread: Redskins Flex Scheduling Updates/Playoff Positioning Updates

[TK]

Week 12 (November 27) Schedule Change

WEEK 12 (NOVEMBER 27) SCHEDULE CHANGE: PATRIOTS-JETS MOVES TO 4:25 PM ET ON CBS CHIEFS-BRONCOS MOVES TO 8:30 PM ET ON NBC The NFL announced today scheduling changes for Week 12 on Sunday, November 27.  The New England Patriots at New York Jets game will be played at 4:25 PM ET on CBS and the Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos game moves to 8:30 PM ET on NBC.  Following is the final Week 12 NFL schedule (all times ET):  THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 24           MINNESOTA AT DETROIT 12:30 PM  CBS WASHINGTON AT DALLAS 4:30 PM  FOX PITTSBURGH AT INDIANAPOLIS 8:30 PM  NBC                                                    SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 27           ARIZONA AT ATLANTA 1:00 PM  FOX CINCINNATI AT BALTIMORE  1:00 PM  CBS JACKSONVILLE AT BUFFALO 1:00 PM  CBS TENNESSEE AT CHICAGO 1:00 PM  CBS NEW YORK GIANTS AT CLEVELAND 1:00 PM  FOX SAN DIEGO AT HOUSTON 1:00 PM  CBS SAN FRANCISCO AT MIAMI 1:00 PM  FOX LOS ANGELES AT NEW ORLEANS  1:00 PM  FOX SEATTLE AT TAMPA BAY  4:05 PM FOX NEW ENGLAND AT NEW YORK JETS 4:25 PM  CBS CAROLINA AT OAKLAND 4:25 PM  CBS KANSAS CITY AT DENVER 8:30 PM NBC              MONDAY, NOVEMBER 28           GREEN BAY AT PHILADELPHIA 8:30 PM  ESPN

[Yeen80]

Works for me. I can watch all the games on Sunday stress free (Even more so if we win in Dallas)

[kleese]

11-15-16 Update: 

It was a decent week for the Redskins in terms of outcomes with one big exception. 

Losses from the Panthers, Saints, and Packers was nice. That battle for th last wild card is going to stay wide open and I definitely think we could earn it even just finishing 3-4 down the stretch. 

Rams and Bucs won, but I consider both of them way outside fringe contenders-- probably 8-8 teams at absolute best so I'm not fretting them much. 

The big one was the Giants win. We could have used the Bengals to hang on there. Now New York gets two bye weeks before ending with a tough five game stretch. They should be 8-3 after their Bears/Browns party. After that, it gets tough for them with road games with the Steelers, Eagles, and us. They host the Boys and Lions. A bad finish for them wouldn't be out of the question at all. What we want to do is stay one Win behind them-- that woild keep us on control of our own destiny in regards to the Giants week 17. 

Of course, we don't HAVE to pass the Giants-- if they pull away for the 5 seed, the 6 is still open. We currently own the 6 seed and I don't see any surrounded teams making any sort of big run. As long as we don't tank these next few weeks (and by that I mean losing our next three) we will find ourselves in the thick of the hunt over the last quarter of the season. 

I wanted 2-2 over the third quarter and we got one already-- now, just don't tank. Beat the Pack, Cowboys, OR Cardinals and we are ok. Win two and we will be in great shape. Win three and the East is likely back in play. 

Onviously beating Green Bay accomplishes two things, much like beating Minn this week. 

Gamea to watch this week: 

Saints at Panthers: Technically, I guess you pull Carolina so that both would be 4-6 afterwards. But I also see some merit in wanting to COMPLETELY eliminate the Panthers and not let them have any life. I don't think this is a game we really need to sweat one way or the other. 

Eagles at Seahawks: This one is easy... counting on a Philly loss here, it's a game changer if they win. 

Bears at Giants: Don't hold your breath but obviously root for Chicago. 

Cardinals at Vikings: This one is interesting. Cards are below Minnesota in the standings so I guess you say pull Arizona. But kind of like the Panthers, it might be nice to see Arizona just go away. On the other hand, due to their tie and due to the fact that we play them, the Cardinals are one team we can win a tie-breaker against. So I'd say a slight lean here to Arizona and make that North look totally like a one-playoff team division.

Jaguars at Lions: I give Jax a puncher's chance. Again, we want the North to turn ugly. 

Ravens at Cowboys: I have totally accepted Dallas is winning the East. Thereofore I actually want them to win this game. I'd rather them be 10-1 and riding high than coming off a loss when we play them on Thanksgiving. 

Bucs at Chiefs: Again, not worried about Bucs but might as well pull Chiefs.

Dolphins at Rams: See above and substitute Dolphins for Chiefs 

Scheduling Updates: 

--This week and next set in stone. The NFL did flex out Pats/Jets in exchange for Chiefs/Broncos the SNF game after Thanksgiving for those that didn't know. 

--Still think there is a small chance our game at Arizona gets flexed. But it's pretty slim. Currently it's Panthers at Seahawks. Determination on that game has to be made after this weeks games. If Panthers lose to NO I think their game gets dropped for sure. If they beat the Saints I'm 50/50 on whether it stays. There are two possible replacements: 

Chiefs at Falcons

Redakins at Cardinals 

The Chiefs game looks more likely, but neither KC or ATL are huge draws and the Chiefs play SNF the week prior as well. No rule against that but not sure KC is a team the NFL is going to want to feature in their prime spot two weeks in a row. If we beat GB and Arizona beats Minn I think are game is very much in play. If either or both lose I think it's either Falcons game or no change. 

--I REALLY think our game vs Eagles could be on the move to 4:25 that day. Seahawks at Packers is the current feature and I'm not sure that is a big enough game at this point to go virtually nationally-- especially if you have a competitive NFC East game to either replace or run alongside it. That decision needs to be made after we play Dallas. Keep an eye on that. 

[Cooleyfan1993]

^ Dallas wouldn't be 10-1 with a win on Sunday. They are 8-1 now. A win against the Ravens makes them 9-1. Don't be giving them an extra win for that!!! ??

[Yeen80]

Say the Eagles fall flat on their face and loses their next three games which is completely possible at Seattle, vs Green Bay, and at Cincinnati. Do you think theyd move our game with a 5-7 Eagles team?

[Suffolk_Skins]

How can you say you want Dallas to beat an AFC team when our game is a two game swing against them on thanksgiving? I love you as a poster but come on! Do you think they won't be amped up against the Redskins on TG whatever the scenario? We want them to lose of course!  What if we win our next three and they drop two.....

[kleese]

2 hours ago, Yeen80 said:

Say the Eagles fall flat on their face and loses their next three games which is completely possible at Seattle, vs Green Bay, and at Cincinnati. Do you think theyd move our game with a 5-7 Eagles team?

They have to make the decision on that after the Thanksgiving games. So worst case the Eagles would be at the time is 5-6. Worst we'd be at decision time is 5-5-1. If that was the case, then yes, our game would be less attractive to move, but would likely still get consideration. 

[kleese]

Sunday results were a mixed bag for Redskins.

On the "bad" side, we saw wins from:

Giants, Bucs, Lions, Vikings

On the "good" side, we saw losses from:

Packers (duh), Eagles, Cardinals, Saints, Rams

For now, I like to look the playoffs from a worst-case angle--- what is going to take to earn the six seed at a minimum? We are looking really good there. For the sake of the exercise, let's concede the division to Dallas and the #5 seed to the Giants. That leaves us currently at the 6, leading the way. And actually, unless I'm missing something there is NO way we could fall out of the 6 seed this week even if we lose.

Redskins 6-3-1

Lions (6-4), Vikings (6-4), Bucs (5-5), Eagles (5-5), Cardinals (4-5-1), Saints (4-6), Panthers (4-6), Rams(4-6), Packers (4-6)

Those are the teams we are competing with for the 6 seed. You must note that either the Vikings or Lions (or Packers still I suppose) will win the North and thus be taken out of the equation. We are essentially competing with the 2nd/3rd place teams in the North.

So even if we lose this week and all of these teams win (someone has to lose in the Det-Min game) we'd still be the 6 seed after this week which puts on display what a good position we are in currently. And yes, even if the Lions and Vikings were to tie, we'd still get the nod, because Det would win a division tie break over Minn and we'd then win a head to head with Vikings.

So, everyone that thinks that we "need" to win 10 games in order to get to get in-- let me ask you this- which of those teams above do you think is going to go 10-6 this year? If your answer is the same as mine ("none of them") then 9-6-1 will do it for us. And honestly, we'd have an OK shot if we go 8-7-1 because I wouldn't be stunned if all of those teams finish at 8-8 or worse.

Game this week:

Vikings at Lions: It's a big game, but doesn't necessarily matter who wins. It all comes down to this-- who do you think is more likely to finish strong over the last five games? Whatever the answer to that question is, then THAT is the team to root for. Then, whoever loses, they clearly become an enemy the rest of the way.

Seahawks at Bucs: If Tampa wins this one, then they become a bit of problem. You'd have to take the seriously. Root for Seattle.

Packers at Eagles: Unless you fear a monster Packer uprising if they win, pull for the Pack.

Cardinals at Falcons: Cards have looked very "meh" all year, but I still fear them at least a little bit and would prefer they go away. If they beat Atlanta this week and us the next week, they'd pass us (assuming we lose to Dallas).

Rams at Saints: I think both of these teams are done, but kind of like Vikings-Lions just root for whoever you think is less of a threat.

Panthers at Raiders: Very obvious you root Oakland here and get rid of Carolina for good this year.

Scheduling Notes:

I am now 95% sure our game with the Cardinals stays right where it is--- had Arizona won yesterday, I think Redskins-Cardinals had at least a little bit of a chance to replace Panthers-Seahawks on SNF. As it stands now, and with the Chiefs losing and Panthers winning, I'll predict that Panthers-Seahawks stays put. We will know for sure within 24 hours.

The next possible schedule change would be on the 12-10 at the Eagles. Seahawks at Packers is the national late afternoon FOX  game and that looks shaky right now-- not sure they want that to be the only real attraction at that time that day. Redskins at Eagles could slide late quite easily--- but it might come down to that MNF game in Philly-- if the Eagles beat the Pack, I'm predicting close to 100% that our game moves to the late slot either to replace the Seahawks-Packers or run alongside it. If GB wins, then our game with Philly becomes less attractive and the Pack game with Seattle becomes more attractive so maybe they leave it as is. The decision has to be made after this week's slate of games.

[kleese]

The one "good" thing about our loss is that it does streamline and make clear our goals and enemies moving forward. The East is now out of the question so our only focus will be on getting one of the two wild cards. Whether you prefer the 5 or 6 seed really just depends on who you want to play in round one and a potential second round game. For me, I don't care. Just get in. 

For now, let's concede one seed to the Giants. They should be 8-3 after tomorrow and even with a tough ending schedule they should be able to work their way in. I don't think it's impossible they tank down the stretch, but they don't matter all that much to me. I'll root against them for now of course but I'm not sweating them much. Fairly immaterial to us. 

So here is where we stand. 

If we go 5-0 we make the playoffs with a 100% probability. It's a fact. We would almost certainly be the 5 seed in that case. 

If we go 4-1, I'd put our chances in the upper 90th percentile. Only way we'd miss is if Tampa went 6-0 or Minnesota went 5-0 while Detroit ALSO finished 4-1 or better. 

The big number is what happens if we go 3-2? That would seem to be the most logical/realistic ending to our season. I think our chances would be great-- 75% or better. 

If we finish 3-2 to go 9-6-1, we simply need all of the teams around us to get to 7 losses. 

So teams like the Panthers, Rams, Saints, and Packers (who already have 6 losses) would have to finish 6-0. 

The Bucs and Eagles would have to finish 5-1 to avoid a 7th loss. Vikings have to go 4-1 to avoid a 7th loss. Lions have to go 3-2 to avoid a 7th loss. Cardinals have to 5-1 to avoid 7th loss. 

So odds are REALLY in our favor to make it in if we finish 3-2. Really in our favor. Even better if any of those three come against the Eagles or Cards. 

If we go 2-3? Still have a chance and probably a better chance than most think, but it gets real dicey at that point. 

If we go 1-4 we'd need a borderline miracle to get in and if we go 0-5 obviously forget about it. 

So it's just super simple-- keep rooting for losses from all of those teams listed above. And yes, root for the Cowboys.... the play ONLY wild card contenders from here on out. And depending on how it falls, might even be pulling for the Giants to beat the Lions and Eagles when they play. 

[Suffolk_Skins]

2 hours ago, kleese said:

The one "good" thing about our loss is that it does streamline and make clear our goals and enemies moving forward. The East is now out of the question so our only focus will be on getting one of the two wild cards. Whether you prefer the 5 or 6 seed really just depends on who you want to play in round one and a potential second round game. For me, I don't care. Just get in. 

For now, let's concede one seed to the Giants. They should be 8-3 after tomorrow and even with a tough ending schedule they should be able to work their way in. I don't think it's impossible they tank down the stretch, but they don't matter all that much to me. I'll root against them for now of course but I'm not sweating them much. Fairly immaterial to us. 

So here is where we stand. 

If we go 5-0 we make the playoffs with a 100% probability. It's a fact. We would almost certainly be the 5 seed in that case. 

If we go 4-1, I'd put our chances in the upper 90th percentile. Only way we'd miss is if Tampa went 6-0 or Minnesota went 5-0 while Detroit ALSO finished 4-1 or better. 

The big number is what happens if we go 3-2? That would seem to be the most logical/realistic ending to our season. I think our chances would be great-- 75% or better. 

If we finish 3-2 to go 9-6-1, we simply need all of the teams around us to get to 7 losses. 

So teams like the Panthers, Rams, Saints, and Packers (who already have 6 losses) would have to finish 6-0. 

The Bucs and Eagles would have to finish 5-1 to avoid a 7th loss. Vikings have to go 4-1 to avoid a 7th loss. Lions have to go 3-2 to avoid a 7th loss. Cardinals have to 5-1 to avoid 7th loss. 

So odds are REALLY in our favor to make it in if we finish 3-2. Really in our favor. Even better if any of those three come against the Eagles or Cards. 

If we go 2-3? Still have a chance and probably a better chance than most think, but it gets real dicey at that point. 

If we go 1-4 we'd need a borderline miracle to get in and if we go 0-5 obviously forget about it. 

So it's just super simple-- keep rooting for losses from all of those teams listed above. And yes, root for the Cowboys.... the play ONLY wild card contenders from here on out. And depending on how it falls, might even be pulling for the Giants to beat the Lions and Eagles when they play. 

Thanks for doing such a good job on this thread I appreciate it. Biggest game for us tomorrow is Atlanta Cards. If Cards pull that out then next week becomes absolutely huge. If Falcons do their thing although arizona would still have a fighting chance they can't overtake us and would be coming into the game a lot flatter.

I do the math and I think even 2-3 is 50 per cent chance of we beat Eagles and Cards.

[kleese]

3 hours ago, Suffolk_Skins said:

Thanks for doing such a good job on this thread I appreciate it. Biggest game for us tomorrow is Atlanta Cards. If Cards pull that out then next week becomes absolutely huge. If Falcons do their thing although arizona would still have a fighting chance they can't overtake us and would be coming into the game a lot flatter.

I do the math and I think even 2-3 is 50 per cent chance of we beat Eagles and Cards.

Yes in the odd situation we go 2-3 with the wins being Philly and Zona we would probably still have a decent chance. 

 

[Cooleyfan1993]

If philly wins Monday night, they'd be 6-5. Any chance our matchup against them in 2 weeks then gets moved to either 4:30 or 8:30? 

They'd have to decide by Tuesday or Wednesday of this week either way 

[kleese]

1 minute ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

If philly wins Monday night, they'd be 6-5. Any chance our matchup against them in 2 weeks then gets moved to either 4:30 or 8:30? 

They'd have to decide by Tuesday or Wednesday of this week either way 

I said above that I think the Phi/GB Monday night is basically a "play in" game for the 4:25 in two weeks. I would be very, very surprised if Philly wins that game and our game with them DOESN'T get moved. If Philly loses I still think there is a slight chance our game gets moved, but much less likely at that point.

[Cooleyfan1993]

1 minute ago, kleese said:

I said above that I think the Phi/GB Monday night is basically a "play in" game for the 4:25 in two weeks. I would be very, very surprised if Philly wins that game and our game with them DOESN'T get moved. If Philly loses I still think there is a slight chance our game gets moved, but much less likely at that point.

Yeah I forgot Dallas vs giants is the Sunday night game that week, no way they move that Sunday night game ??

switching Seahawks vs packers for us vs Eagles would be the move. 

Although if they change Seahawks @ packers to the 1 PM slot, that would be a 12 PM game in Green Bay and with the time change that would be like Seattle having a 9 AM game. I doubt the league would wanna put Seattle in that situation. 

[illone]

Green Bay has to stop the bleeding eventually.  Gotta think they beat Philly as Philly doesnt have the offensive firepower to keep up.  I've got the skins at 10 wins and playing on the road vs Detroit to avenge the earlier loss.  Then get to play in Dallas to settle THAT score.

[Warhead36]

For the final five weeks of the regular season...

Lets go Cowboys!

(I just threw up)

[Commander -JB-]

Scheduling gods show now mercy this season...

Monday night vs Carolina followed by Saturday 1PM game @ Bears.  Ouch.

[Warhead36]

8 minutes ago, -JB- said:

Scheduling gods show now mercy this season...

Monday night vs Carolina followed by Saturday 1PM game @ Bears.  Ouch.

The Bears are awful. We'll still beat them by 4 TDs.

[Cooleyfan1993]

39 minutes ago, -JB- said:

Scheduling gods show now mercy this season...

Monday night vs Carolina followed by Saturday 1PM game @ Bears.  Ouch.

Eh. Just 1 less day than everyone else. 

[Commander -JB-]

39 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

The Bears are awful. We'll still beat them by 4 TDs.

Should win both honestly.

But we're the Redskins.  We never beat anybody by 4 TDs lol

[Cooleyfan1993]

16 minutes ago, -JB- said:

Should win both honestly.

But we're the Redskins.  We never beat anybody by 4 TDs lol

Once in a while we do, like against the Jaguars in 2014 and against the saints last year  

so like, 98% of the time we don't. Cause we're the redskins 

[Commander -JB-]

2 minutes ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

Once in a while we do, like against the Jaguars in 2014 and against the saints last year  

so like, 98% of the time we don't. Cause we're the redskins 

Touché. 

[Yeen80]

Giants arent a real contender. They are 8-3 and are going to make the playoffs but certainly don't deserve it. All of their 8 wins have come against teams that are .500 or below. If you want to get real picky they beat Dallas when they were 0-0 and Dak and Zeke had no idea what was going on yet.

Wins vs the Cowboys (see point above), Saints, Rams, Ravens, Eagles, Bengals, Bears , and Browns. Congrats. Some impressive stuff.

[Suffolk_Skins]

The Atlanta result is a very nice one for us. A win for the cardinals would have been huge going into next week. Need Seattle to get the win today as well.

[Stefanskins]

This weeks games for WC position -Bold Teams we won HtoH)
Minnesota now (6-5)
Tampa Bay (5-5) winning in 2nd qtr. vs Seattle 
Arizona  now (4-6-1) loss to ATL
New Orleans now (5-6) won agnst LA now (4-7)
Carolina (4-6) tied in the 1rst w/ Raiders 
Green Bay (4-6) vs Philidelphia (5-5) - Mon. Night

 

Minn. remaining games:
vs Cowboys - L
at Jags - W
vs Colts - W
at GB - toss up (Beat Pack in Wk 2)
vs Bears - W

so I see the Vikes either being 10-6 or 9-7...I'm leaning towards a loss in GB so 9-7

Green Bay remaining games:

at Eagles (Las Vegas has them as 4pt dogs) so L (?)

vs Texans - L

vs Seattle - L

at Bears - W

vs Vikes - W

at Lions - L

Eagles remaining games:

vs Packers - W
at Cinci - L
vs Skins - L
at Ravens - W
vs Giants - W
vs Cowboys - L but could be a win if Cowboys have wrapped up HF adv. by then

so I see the Eagles 8-8 or 9-7...which could make our trip to Philly very interesting if we falter against Arz.

Tampa's remainin games:

vs Seahawks - L
at Chargers - L (west coast traveling)
vs Saints - W
at Cowboys - L
at Saints - L
vs Panthers - W - who may have packed it in by then

so I see the Bucs going 7-9 or 8-8 depending on todays Seattle game.

Cards remaining games:

vs Skins - L
at Dolphins - L (west coast traveling)
vs Saints - W
at Seattle - L
at Rams - W
so I see the Cards going 6-9-1 but if they can beat us next week I could see them going 8-8-1

Saints remaining games:

vs Lions - W
at Bucs- L 
at Cards - W
vs Bucs - W
at Falcons - L
so I see the Saints going  8-8. They would really have to impress to go 9-7

so I think we need GB to win tomorrow....Bucs to lose today...and Vikes to stumble for at least one game down the stretch...and we can get in at 9-6-1...we should be able to go 3-2 in our last 5 games...heck...if we don't, then we don't deserve to be in the playoffs...that means the Cards game this Sunday is paramount to our season...give us a lil' cushion going into the final 4 games. HTTR!!!