Jump to content
Washington Football Team Logo
Extremeskins

Three stats matter for QB play


Lombardi's_kid_brother

Recommended Posts

I don't think completion percentage is all that important:

 

Fun fact:  Mark Rypien's completion percentage during the 1991 Superbowl season:  59.1%.  That's right, less than 60%.

 

 

 

Wow....What were Sammy Baugh's numbers?

 

Football in 1991 is, like, the Dark Ages. One team threw for over 4000 yards that year - the Oilers. 12 teams threw for over 4000 yards last season.

 

Last year the league-wide completion percentage was 63 percent. In 1991, it was 57 percent.

 

In other words, Rypien was above average in 1991 when it came to that stat. Today, he'd be behind Geno Smith.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This isn't 1985 any longer. The best teams score points.

 

New England is #1 in third down percentage, but they are #1 in everything. New Orleans, Cleveland, Oakland, Chicago, and your Washington Fighting Snyders are in the top ten.

Green Bay is #19.

 

As a team, we have one more first down than Green Bay. They have 47 more points.

 

Are you enjoying our third down efficiency? Do you think the Packers watch tape of Cousins and say, "Aaron...why can't you be more like him?"

NFL stats are probably important in terms of baselines.

 

Third down percentage is pretty meaningless....unless you are truly terrible at it.

 

Rushing yards are pretty meaningless.....unless you are truly terrible at it. (Denver is so bad in every offensive category that I fully expect them to go 0-1 in the playoffs).

Washington Fighting Snyders  , love it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That'd be something Larry Michael would say on his "skintangibles" segment:

 

"Skins gotta convert on 3rd down"

 

<STAFF EDIT, RULE 11 DON'T QUOTE PICS, MEMBER WARNED>

 

I miss Jimmy the Greek's realllly long comparison columns from the late 70's, back when "NFL Today" had sports' best theme song.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wonder if there's a way to make TD-INT more useful.

 

It, as a metric, seemingly measures good QB drives vs. bad QB drives, but the obvious holes keep it from being a true "net positive score" metric.

 

Maybe adding in sacks, where the % of drives that a sack ends up being the pivotal drive sealing play, on the INT side (% of drive ending sack times # of sacks).  And then adding in field goals where the QB was instrumental in the drive on the TD side (3/7 * # of FGs * % of field goals QB was instrumental in).

 

That might give a better "Positive QB drives VS. Negative QB drives" perspective than just TD-INT.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think its fair to say Cousins can't stretch the field. Last year he and Jackson played four games together start to finish, and Jackson got 100 yards in three of them. There just aren't any other explosive receivers on the team, and the offensive coaching staff can't seem to scheme guys open.

 

I will agree his accuracy has been alarmingly bad the last couple of games, and I'm not really sure why, because the last couple of years his accuracy wasn't really that much of an issue. Maybe the pressure of having to make perfect throws every time because none of our receivers can get separation is getting to him. I'll stick with my theory that he's got some competition anxiety.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Would completion percentage be redundant if you are measuring yards per attempt?  Because Yards Per Attempt would account for Comp %.  If you were measuring yards per completion, I think Comp % would then become relevant.  But you're not, so its not.  Right?

 

Also, I think there needs to be a baseline number of throws.  And I also think that baseline should be relatively high, but not too high.

 

For instance, you'd need a baseline that would allow you to throw out Peyton Manning's 2 first seasons, but would allow you to establish that Matt Stafford is a turd by year 3.  

 

Finally, I think TD throws is the most arbitrary stat in existence.  I would rather see INT's measured against, say, yards.

 

 

How about this.   (Yards / Attempts) / INT's.  So 1 or fewer interceptions is essentially thrown out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What is amazing is that we spent a lot of last year saying Robert needed to be more like Russell and not take so many sacks/hits. Pretty telling how when the team struggles the QB as playmaker takes more hits in trying to make something happen. At least, that is what the numbers suggest.

I posted this in the Cousins is the Man Thread:http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/2580572-jay-grudens-commitment-to-kirk-cousins-will-get-him-fired

Wow! That is brutal. The graphic with accuracy marks. According to that he has thrown 16 passes over 20 yards and 15 of them have been inaccurate. Confirms the eye test.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Would completion percentage be redundant if you are measuring yards per attempt?  Because Yards Per Attempt would account for Comp %.  If you were measuring yards per completion, I think Comp % would then become relevant.  But you're not, so its not.  Right?

 

 

 

They aren't redundant.

 

QB A is 1-10 for 90 yards.

 

QB B is 9-10 for 90 yards.

 

Same yards per attempt, but you aren't getting the whole story obviously.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wonder if there's a way to make TD-INT more useful.

 

 

It's better to look at TD and INT separately because we also need to know TD and INT per game.  Let's say a QB finishes with 3 times as many TDs as INTs, which as a ratio is great... unless it's only 9 touchdowns a season.  I haven't looked up stats but I'm guessing QBs averaging 2TD per game versus less than 1INT per game would be good. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow....What were Sammy Baugh's numbers?

 

Football in 1991 is, like, the Dark Ages. One team threw for over 4000 yards that year - the Oilers. 12 teams threw for over 4000 yards last season.

 

Last year the league-wide completion percentage was 63 percent. In 1991, it was 57 percent.

 

In other words, Rypien was above average in 1991 when it came to that stat. Today, he'd be behind Geno Smith.

 

Sammy Baugh's completion percentages included years of 62.7, 70.3 and 60.6.  And the year after Rypien, Aikman had 63.8 and had 69.1 the year after that, so Rypien's completion percentage wasn't great, the era has littleto do with it (which is why I mentioned other SuperBowl winning QBs with low completion percentages closer to the present).  The only difference is there are now a lot more bubble screens and short passes which artificially inflate modern completion percentages.  Perhaps you should look at completion percentages for passes over 10 yards in the air.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's better to look at TD and INT separately because we also need to know TD and INT per game.  Let's say a QB finishes with 3 times as many TDs as INTs, which as a ratio is great... unless it's only 9 touchdowns a season.  I haven't looked up stats but I'm guessing QBs averaging 2TD per game versus less than 1INT per game would be good. 

 

Right.  TDs/game and/or TDs/Attempts are definitely important.  Ultimately there's no "silver bullet" stat.  I still like the idea of TD+FG/INT+Sack as a sort of "positive drives versus negative drives" thing, though I was trying to start compile QB data and that's a lot to sift through.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With Kirk. Let's call it what it is.  He seems to be choking.  He can only blame himself.  He has been given all the chances in the world to take this job and for whatever reason, just can't seem to sieve it.   For his sake, he needs to win Sunday.  He needs to call off the dogs.  Cuz the mo is building.

 

I think Colt is mentally stronger and is a more resourceful and resliant player.  He seems to be tougher minded than Kirk.  Kirk doesn't seem to have an edge about him.  

 

Personally, I think he needs to have his best game against Tampa.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

what a middle of the road, say something we didn't know, topic.

There is only one stat that matters.. win percent.

Payton manning is last in the league in most of ops stats, but he is still the starter because of the win percent,...

 

1. You really dropped the "wins is all that matters" hot take into this? Because that's awesome.

2. "Payton" probably should be benched at some point because that team is awesome and he is going to absolutely murder them at some point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

played behind a line as good as our starters are this year. 

 

 

Scherff and Moses were busts in August, if memory serves.    The correct protection and hot route are called, the ball comes out.  The ball comes out, the line doesn't have to block as long.

 

It's a give and take. 

 

Just like when the running game is effective (and the clock is ticking), the secondary looks amazing (because they aren't on the field).

 

We're really in a rabbit hole over a lot of things with a team that has given you every excuse to take a big picture approach to this season.

 

Try to enjoy improvements.

 

LKB, great thread and great OP.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We're really in a rabbit hole over a lot of things with a team that has given you every excuse to take a big picture approach to this season.

 

Try to enjoy improvements.

I am stoked over the improvements occurring this season.  The oline is blossoming right in front of our eyes.  Young guys are getting playing time, mid-level draft picks are showing that they deserve some playing time and will at the least be strong backups in the years to come. 

 

Our young WRs are also getting playing time and looking like they deserve to be on the field.  I expect, like many here do, for us to pick up another #1 type WR this offseason.  Our OLB have a lot of promise and our safeties are respectable.  Our RBs look pretty good and of course we have the new GM. 

 

With all that said, I hope that all players that are playing poorly pretty much every week are benched so that we can see what the next man up can do.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am stoked over the improvements occurring this season.  The oline is blossoming right in front of our eyes.  Young guys are getting playing time, mid-level draft picks are showing that they deserve some playing time and will at the least be strong backups in the years to come. 

 

Our young WRs are also getting playing time and looking like they deserve to be on the field.  I expect, like many here do, for us to pick up another #1 type WR this offseason.  Our OLB have a lot of promise and our safeties are respectable.  Our RBs look pretty good and of course we have the new GM. 

 

With all that said, I hope that all players that are playing poorly pretty much every week are benched so that we can see what the next man up can do.

 

Re-read my first sentence in the previous response.

 

Does the o-line (which was heavily criticized in the preseason) "blossom" or do they go back to being heavily criticized?

 

Do the WRs look like they have grown if they aren't getting the ball (albeit inaccurately)?

 

These are big picture things that a professional team might look at weighing at the expense of other things.  Especially when you are being honest about where you are as a franchise.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What's baffling to me is the accuracy issue.  Has it really been this bad before?

 

In my opinion, he has had trouble with hitting crossing receivers in stride since day 1.  It has always been my biggest knock on him.  Not sure if he simply has trouble adjusting to the speed of pro receivers.  Whatever it is, Gruden needs to recognize it and devise a way to fix it.  Spend entire practices throwing crossing routes, hynopsis,witchdoctor.  Something...........

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They aren't redundant.

 

QB A is 1-10 for 90 yards.

 

QB B is 9-10 for 90 yards.

 

Same yards per attempt, but you aren't getting the whole story obviously.

 

It seems like you tried to find an extreme hypothetical to prove your point, but it still boils down to two QBs who threw the same number of passes and produced the same amount of offense.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...