Three stats matter for QB play

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

I want

 

 

I want warning points.  How do you get warning points?

 

Being an ass helps.

[The Dude]

But standing there waiting for a guy to come open before you throw is why neither were successful. Game is too fast for that

 

I immediately thought of Aaron Rodgers throwing receivers open vs. Kirk waiting for the open pass.  

 

Interesting exercise: swap Cousins and Rodgers. Garcon would be starting in every fantasy league.  Jamison Crowder converts every 3rd and short.  

 

On the flipside, Green Bay probably has the exact same record as Washington.  Eddie Lacy collapses from overuse.  Fans start beating the drum for Brett Hundley to start.  People finally realize Mike McCarthy is a mediocre coach (that should happen anyway).  

 

James Jones is currently on pace for 1,100 yards and 16 TDs.  Does he even break 500 yards with Cousins as his QB?  

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

You have a weird way of agreeing with people.

Pre and post snap is what I said. Defenses disguise in the NFL and you see the great QBs adjust to the presnap look but when players start moving they recognize it. Kirk struggles there. He also has a tendency to throw weaker passes off his back foot when he starts to feel pressure.

 

I listened to Cooley and Portis this morning and thought they made an interesting point: Sometimes, the play isn't there. And that's when you have to improvise.

 

Kirk has two yards rushing this year.

 

If the play doesn't happen as designed, he's pretty much dead in the water.

 

I'm not sure this is a learned skill.

 

This may be an unfair comparison, but I've read that in his rookie year, the Steelers basically gave Roethlisberger one read on every pass play. If that read wasn't there, it was up to him to make something up. (It may have actually been that he only bothered to learn the first read, but I could be wrong).

 

Even Eli - who is probably a better model for Kirk to follow since he's not an athletic or genetic freak - has always been capable of occasionally pulling a rabbit out of his hat.

 

This is totally unfair, but my favorite play in football right now is "Defense jumps offside, giving Aaron Rodgers a free play." If he faced a defense that jumped offsides five times in a game, he'd throw for 700 yards, I think. On those plays. Which is not mathematically possible but still.

I immediately thought of Aaron Rodgers throwing receivers open vs. Kirk waiting for the open pass.  

 

Interesting exercise: swap Cousins and Rodgers. Garcon would be starting in every fantasy league.  Jamison Crowder converts every 3rd and short.  

 

On the flipside, Green Bay probably has the exact same record as Washington.  Eddie Lacy collapses from overuse.  Fans start beating the drum for Brett Hundley to start.  People finally realize Mike McCarthy is a mediocre coach (that should happen anyway).  

 

James Jones is currently on pace for 1,100 yards and 16 TDs.  Does he even break 500 yards with Cousins as his QB?  

 

Oh, I think Green Bay is winless in that scenario.

 

They are bad.

 

Without Rodgers, James Jones is not on the Packers. He has some kind of weird mind meld with Rodgers where they can make plays even though James Jones is NEVER open. Never. Watch him sometime. Unless it's a totally broken play, he always has a defender on his back.

[Thirtyfive2seven]

So when RGIII is playing, it's all about poor RGIII and how the offensive line purposefully doesn't block for him and they suck.

Enter Kirk Cousins with 2 starting offensive linemen and 3 guys no one has ever heard of before... And it's all Kirk Cousins and he's a turnover machine.  Meanwhile, the running game is abandoned after 14:48 in the first quarter and 1 run.  Yup.

[Skins Wingman]

I listened to Cooley and Portis this morning and thought they made an interesting point: Sometimes, the play isn't there. And that's when you have to improvise.

 

Kirk has two yards rushing this year.

 

If the play doesn't happen as designed, he's pretty much dead in the water.

 

I'm not sure this is a learned skill.

i brought this up in the cousins thread. i said he is like a robot. drops back, 1-2-3 and if nothing there he checks down. he doesnt know when to run, or improvise, or wait for something to happen. the game doesnt seem to come natural to him and all he thinks about is making his reads and getting the ball out.

[Destino]

Interesting exercise: swap Cousins and Rodgers.

James Jones is currently on pace for 1,100 yards and 16 TDs. Does he even break 500 yards with Cousins as his QB?

No one is holding out hope that Cousins is the next amazing hall of fame dominating QB, those are extremely rare. So rare in fact that of the four "elite" QBs in the league (Brady, Manning, Rodgers, and Brees) Rodgers is the most recent and he was drafted 10 years ago. I think the closet realistic hope is that he develops into a Trent Green, good enough, type of QB. A guy that can win in the right system with a good team around him.

[gortiz]

i brought this up in the cousins thread. i said he is like a robot. drops back, 1-2-3 and if nothing there he checks down. he doesnt know when to run, or improvise, or wait for something to happen. the game doesnt seem to come natural to him and all he thinks about is making his reads and getting the ball out.

 

true man.  you are never going to see him pump fake and get a defender off his feet, or do a improv shovel play, or throw the ball side arm to get the best angle. 

 

dude has TWO rushing yards this year. 

 

Two. 

 

that's dos for Spanish speakers. 

 

wtf 

[StephenDavis]

true man.  you are never going to see him pump fake and get a defender off his feet, or do a improv shovel play, or throw the ball side arm to get the best angle. 

 

dude has TWO rushing yards this year. 

 

Two. 

 

that's dos for Spanish speakers. 

 

wtf 

Kirk Cousins made Ryan Fitzpatrick look like Aaron Rodgers out there. As conservative as Kirk and the offensive play calling is it's dumbfounding that he still turns the ball over. 23 picks in 15 starts. RGIII had the same amount in 35 starts. Time to see what Colt can do.

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

Kirk Cousins made Ryan Fitzpatrick look like Aaron Rodgers out there. As conservative as Kirk and the offensive play calling is it's dumbfounding that he still turns the ball over. 23 picks in 15 starts. RGIII had the same amount in 35 starts. Time to see what Colt can do.

 

Oh, we know what Colt can do. He's an ex-Browns QB. You never get that Browns off you.

[Sticksboi05]

Kirk Cousins made Ryan Fitzpatrick look like Aaron Rodgers out there. As conservative as Kirk and the offensive play calling is it's dumbfounding that he still turns the ball over. 23 picks in 15 starts. RGIII had the same amount in 35 starts. Time to see what Colt can do.

 

This didn't make sense 6 weeks ago and won't make sense in Week 16.

[The Rook]

Stats are stats, but the eye test does bring something to the table.

Some of the things I look for in QB:

Not just accuracy, but the back shoulder or in stride or thrown before the receiver has turned pass.

Not just read the defense, but deceive the defense - do not watch your primary!

Happy feet? Off balance throw? Off leg kicking sideways because of poor throwing posture.

Game awareness.

The Rook

[William Barbour]

This isn't 1985 any longer. The best teams score points.

 

New England is #1 in third down percentage, but they are #1 in everything. New Orleans, Cleveland, Oakland, Chicago, and your Washington Fighting Snyders are in the top ten.

Green Bay is #19.

 

As a team, we have one more first down than Green Bay. They have 47 more points.

 

Are you enjoying our third down efficiency? Do you think the Packers watch tape of Cousins and say, "Aaron...why can't you be more like him?"

NFL stats are probably important in terms of baselines.

 

Third down percentage is pretty meaningless....unless you are truly terrible at it.

 

Rushing yards are pretty meaningless.....unless you are truly terrible at it. (Denver is so bad in every offensive category that I fully expect them to go 0-1 in the playoffs).

You make valid points outside the way you present them, but to you basically said I was right in a sarcastic point of view.

[clskinsfan]

I dont know how you can discount TD to interception ratio so easily. Especially in the modern NFL with passing such an emphasis. I feel it is one of  the true measures of a QB's ability. Both directly effect scoring and maybe more importantly field position. It's not surprising the Patriots lead the league in point differential by a wide margin. Brady doesnt throw picks. ANd he throws a **** ton of TD's.

[TSO]

Pre and post snap is what I said. Defenses disguise in the NFL and you see the great QBs adjust to the presnap look but when players start moving they recognize it. Kirk struggles there. He also has a tendency to throw weaker passes off his back foot when he starts to feel pressure.

Honestly, I think he's improved in a huge way on the first issue this year. I don't see him just automatically going to his pre-snap read no matter what. I've seen him want to, hesitate, look elsewhere, and either throw the ball to someone else or the floor. And sometimes just take the sack. I'd argue he should even be willing to do that more. Or even use his legs, break contain. He's more athletic than you'd think.

He's actually done this a few times this year, to my delight. I remember he did it against the Eagles on that last drive but then there were those offsetting penalties so it didn't count. But he inexplicably got out of a total collapse of the pocket with the Eagles blitzing everyone and ran for the first down.

The second issue you mentioned is what is killing him right now, at least from what I can tell. Against the Jets he was almost always rushing his mechanics/footwork or just throwing off his back foot. He was expecting pressure too much. I think he let the Oline injuries get to him mentally too much, they held up better than assumed.

But, more than anything else, he needs to be willing to step into a throw knowing he's going to get hit. That's a pretty big deal if you're going to be a good QB in this league. You've got to be willing to get hit to make a big throw. Most deep balls, in fact, end with a QB taking a hit, just by virtue of how long the routes take to develop and how good some of these pass rushers are.

This is all tied to what people claim is his weak arm (which also leads to his inaccuracy). His arm isn't weak, it's just not strong enough when he throws off balance or on his heels. He needs his legs to drive the ball, as most QBs do (hence, the importance attributed to footwork). And since he's losing a lot of that "drive", the ball is ending up "short" of his intention (behind the receiver, too low, not enough zip, etc...)

This was always one of his biggest weaknesses and it looks like it's come back in a big way. He needs to snap out of it, or things are just going to keep getting worse. Step into the throw, Kirk. Just do it. Don't be scared.

[Skinsinparadise]

I listened to Cooley and Portis this morning and thought they made an interesting point: Sometimes, the play isn't there. And that's when you have to improvise.

 

Kirk has two yards rushing this year.

 

 

 

The funny thing is his 40 time is just about the same as Ryan Fitzpatrick's 40 combine time and that's back when Ryan was younger.   Kirk's not super athletic but he is average -- athletic enough.  Ryan looked like A. Peterson against us when he saw daylight to run.   Colt ran a 4.8, Kirk ran a 4.9 but watching them play, you'd think that Colt thinks of himself as one of the faster QBs in the league and Kirk like he's the slowest QB in the league.

 

Run Kirk, run! 

[TheCoach22]

I'm not sure it's all that important to be honest, because normally I think that's on the line.

RGIII is a unique animal here. We went from 10 percent with RGIII to 2 percent with Cousins. Cousins doesn't get sacked. It's a skill he has but I'm not sure it's that important because it probably ties into how confined the passing game is with him. With RGIII, it's so out of line that it draws attention. I also think it got worse with RGIII over time.

If you want to make an RGIII defense, it's that maybe this is one thing he can learn how to do better.

The guy worth watching at the moment is Russell Wilson. That celibate **** is getting sacked on 13 freaking percent of his dropbacks this year. And he was pretty high last year. Maybe it's the line, but that dude is going to turn to dust if this keeps up.

Anyway, I've looked at the sack percentage and there is no way to draw conclusions from it except in really weird scenarios like, well, the Redskins dropping 8 points thanks to a QB change.

By the way, I'm an RGIII agnostic. I'm not sure if he's done in professional football or if he is going to go to Dallas next year, take over for romoSUCKS and win three titles. Nothing would totally shock me.

The raw numbers I like are decent for him. But it hasn't really translated into anything on the field.

He's a puzzle.

What is amazing is that we spent a lot of last year saying Robert needed to be more like Russell and not take so many sacks/hits. Pretty telling how when the team struggles the QB as playmaker takes more hits in trying to make something happen. At least, that is what the numbers suggest.

I would have liked to have seen Robert behind the Skins new line and with Matt Jones, Chris Thinpson and Crowder in the fold. Personally, I would take 1-2 more sacks a game for one more score per game. I understand history suggest it is unlikely Robert or Colt survive 16 games in that scenario but the trade off for fewer sacks has been bubble screens on 3rd and Goal from the 8 in Atlanta and some pre-snap read pics from Cousins. We are also scoring 17 PPG on offense and we have six points in the third quarter this season.

I posted this in the Cousins is the Man Thread:

http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/2580572-jay-grudens-commitment-to-kirk-cousins-will-get-him-fired

Ignore the RG3 stuff that has been argued all over this board... Look at the missed chances in the game against the Jets. Cousins is too erratic and that makes it real hard to sustain drives if your running game isn't firing on all cylinders, score TDs in the Redzone, hit for a big play (because late throws mean targets slow down, etc), or really do any of the things that translate to winning football games.

I don't know if I can pick three stats that matter most because so many are tied to one another, but I don't think it is a coincidence that the winningest QBs today throw a lot of TDs, lead a lot of fourth quarter comebacks and tend to have a lot of 300+ yard days. Those are three things we rarely see in Burgundy and Gold... But if you have those three stats on your side you are probably converting on third down, minimizing interceptions or mistakes in general on drives you have to make it happen, etc.

Cousins stats are historically bad... If he is even having an Alex Smith type of stat line right now this team is 4-2 at worst. But stats aside, watching the missed chances in games is frustrating. At MetLife alone this season I can think of four missed TD chances because of poor throws.

[Redskin Diehard]

I'm not sure it's all that important to be honest, because normally I think that's on the line.

 

RGIII is a unique animal here. We went from 10 percent with RGIII down to 2 percent with Cousins. Cousins doesn't get sacked. 

 

Some football scholars would argue... Throwing picks empowers a QB to avoid sacks. (six of one/half dozen of the other) An artist's painting can be interpreted multiple ways. Just a thought... 

[Warhead36]

I'd like to see Cousins run more too. He has athleticism. Remember that run against Philly a couple weeks ago? If the D gives you an entire field to run through then just take off.

 

I agree with the people who say KC tends to be too robotic. When everything goes according to play he plays well but he can't seem to create out of nothing. That's something you definitely need to be able to.

[China]

Hello, dum dums.

 

I'm going to try to keep this from being a long wordy post even though you love them and need them and I'm awesome.

 

But over the years as a high level football analyst, I've determined that three stats really matter for a QB. I once tried to create a math formula to calculate how this should work but I then remembered what my calculus grade was and stopped.

 

Anyway, the three numbers that matter are:

 

1. Completion percentage

2. Yards per attempt

3. TD:Int ratio (though this is probably a distant third to be honest)

 

 

This was longer than I intended, but you are smarter now. You're welcome.

 

I don't think completion percentage is all that important:

 

Fun fact:  Mark Rypien's completion percentage during the 1991 Superbowl season:  59.1%.  That's right, less than 60%.

 

And there have been several other Superbowl winning QBs since then that have had completion percentages less than 60%:

 

Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Trent Dilfer, John Elway, and Brett Favre,

 

I do agree that the YPA matters (Rypien's was 8.5 in the Superbowl season).  If teams crowd the box so you can't run but you're only dinking the ball, then all those defenders are still close by to make the tackle.  You definitely need more deep passes.

 

And the turnover thing is obvious.

 

And I was smarter before.

[skinfan2k]

We really need to see how Kirk plays with a plymaker like Jackson.  He will stretch the defense and open up a lot of things underneath.  I expect big things from him this week. 

[RedskinsFTW Next Year]

Someone posted it over a month ago and forgot the exact numbers, but the difference between Cousins completion % and QB rating when holds the ball longer than 2.5 seconds (?) is staggering. Which pretty much tells me he has trouble throwing down field. He's money on short passes. But it's hard to win consistently when you can't stretch the field with big plays.

[Conn]

Someone posted it over a month ago and forgot the exact numbers, but the difference between Cousins completion % and QB rating when holds the ball longer than 2.5 seconds (?) is staggering. Which pretty much tells me he has trouble throwing down field. He's money on short passes. But it's hard to win consistently when you can't stretch the field with big plays.

Let's be real--we aren't really running routes downfield without Desean, and when we do it's obvious because Ross gets about 3 snaps per game and at least one of them is probably nullified by holding. I'm exaggerating here, but LKB's got it and it's contagious.

I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm saying this offense doesn't have much of a down-field component unless it's Desean deep, Ross deep once a game at most in place of Desean, or Reed down the seam.

[RedskinsFTW Next Year]

Let's be real--we aren't really running routes downfield without Desean, and when we do it's obvious because Ross gets about 3 snaps per game and at least one of them is probably nullified by holding. I'm exaggerating here, but LKB's got it and it's contagious.

I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm saying this offense doesn't have much of a down-field component unless it's Desean deep, Ross deep once a game at most in place of Desean, or Reed down the seam.

 

Down field doesn't need to be flys by speedy receivers. Gronkowski, Witten, Amendola, anyone on the Packers... are not faster than any corners out there but they get plays downfield all the time. Every game I have seen, outside of the Rams game, we have had chances to hit receivers downfield that were open. Cousins simply just hasn't hit them. Even when Reed was playing. He's probably miss 5-6 passes to Reed this season that would be a 30+ yard gain if he threw it accurately. We are 1-2 big plays a game from being 4-2 even without Djax. 

[GhostofSparta]

Down field doesn't need to be flys by speedy receivers. 

To build on to this, how many times have we seen Thompson open on a wheel route 10-15 yards down the sidelines with nobody in front of him? Cousins missed at least 2 of those throws on Sunday, and on one of them Chris hurt himself (temporarily, thank God) trying to contort for a circus catch when he had 2 steps on the guy covering him.

 

You don't need 5 bombs to DJax a game to deep a defense honest. You just need to scare them with a QB who can hit a guy in stride where a 10 yard catch turns into 30+ because the WR didn't have to stop or turn back to catch the ball with nobody in front of him.

[TheCoach22]

Someone posted it over a month ago and forgot the exact numbers, but the difference between Cousins completion % and QB rating when holds the ball longer than 2.5 seconds (?) is staggering. Which pretty much tells me he has trouble throwing down field. He's money on short passes. But it's hard to win consistently when you can't stretch the field with big plays.

He is not money...throws are constantly behind receivers and off target, which is why our YAC is down this season. This is an important piece in the offense and another reason why we need 12-15 plays to get down the field for points and why those points are usually the 3-Pt variety instead of 7-pt.