zCommander Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 The way I look at it is that if you have a team that NEVER has to convert on 3rd down doesn't mean they are not capable of converting on 3rd downs. It just means they are moving the chains within 1st and 2nd downs. So to me 3rd down conversion is not a good stat to measure a QB by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lombardi's_kid_brother Posted October 19, 2015 Author Share Posted October 19, 2015 1.63.9% (61.6%) 2. 7.4 (7.0) 3. 1.74 (0.89) The number in brackets is KC's career, the first number belongs to our third stringer. Just sayin'. RGIII is almost unmeasurable at this point because of the sacks. Dude loves to get sacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
s0crates Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 RGIII is almost unmeasurable at this point because of the sacks. Dude loves to get sacked. Better add sack percentage to your list of the only stats that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fearlessNelms Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Why do we call professional athletes "kid?" It's so weird. Cousins is 27 and has a wife. Anyway, I think the third down conversion thing mattered more a decade ago before the NFL became Arena Football. Ah, it's a N.Y. Italian thing ya know? it's not disrespectful, it's just how we do things...Cabeesh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lombardi's_kid_brother Posted October 19, 2015 Author Share Posted October 19, 2015 The way I look at it is that if you have a team that NEVER has to convert on 3rd down doesn't mean they are not capable of converting on 3rd downs. It just means they are moving the chains within 1st and 2nd downs. So to me 3rd down conversion is not a good stat to measure a QB by. That's kind of the argument. First downs are a type of fool's gold. New England and Detroit have the exact same number of first downs this year. Houston (Houston!!!!) has the most first downs in football. I think you would rather be good at third down conversions than bad at them. But the goal should be to be league average on third down and find ways to make explosive plays That Cardinal-Steelers game yesterday is interesting. Cardinals had 7 more first downs. They held the Steelers to a ludicrous 25 percent on third down. They outgained them by 150 yards. They turned the ball over and gave up an 88 yard TD pass. That's basically what this discussion is about. Getting big plays and not turning the ball over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lombardi's_kid_brother Posted October 19, 2015 Author Share Posted October 19, 2015 Better add sack percentage to your list of the only stats that matter. I'm not sure it's all that important to be honest, because normally I think that's on the line. RGIII is a unique animal here. We went from 10 percent with RGIII to 2 percent with Cousins. Cousins doesn't get sacked. It's a skill he has but I'm not sure it's that important because it probably ties into how confined the passing game is with him. With RGIII, it's so out of line that it draws attention. I also think it got worse with RGIII over time. If you want to make an RGIII defense, it's that maybe this is one thing he can learn how to do better. The guy worth watching at the moment is Russell Wilson. That celibate **** is getting sacked on 13 freaking percent of his dropbacks this year. And he was pretty high last year. Maybe it's the line, but that dude is going to turn to dust if this keeps up. Anyway, I've looked at the sack percentage and there is no way to draw conclusions from it except in really weird scenarios like, well, the Redskins dropping 8 points thanks to a QB change. By the way, I'm an RGIII agnostic. I'm not sure if he's done in professional football or if he is going to go to Dallas next year, take over for Romo and win three titles. Nothing would totally shock me. The raw numbers I like are decent for him. But it hasn't really translated into anything on the field. He's a puzzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILikeBilly Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 RGIII is almost unmeasurable at this point because of the sacks. Dude loves to get sacked. Dude is healthy, knows this system and has never played behind a line as good as our starters are this year. If Kirk can't get it done, Robert should be the starter after the bye. And please - stop it with the 16mil. penalty. He has to be hurt this year and still be unable to play come Dec. 2016. Even an ACL injury in December this season doesn't keep him out for the end of next season. Please don't mention the date for the start of next season. He does not need to be health at that point. We just need to cut him by that date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lombardi's_kid_brother Posted October 19, 2015 Author Share Posted October 19, 2015 Dude is healthy, knows this system and has never played behind a line as good as our starters are this year. If Kirk can't get it done, Robert should be the starter after the bye. And please - stop it with the 16mil. penalty. He has to be hurt this year and still be unable to play come Dec. 2016. Even an ACL injury in December this season doesn't keep him out for the end of next season. Please don't mention the date for the start of next season. He does not need to be health at that point. We just need to cut him by that date. And, we're off on an RGIII v Cousins thread. That's a discussion we need to have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILikeBilly Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 And, we're off on an RGIII v Cousins thread. That's a discussion we need to have. In prepping, if you have one, you have none. If you have two, you have one. In football, if you have one, you have one, if you have two, you have none. Until we can find one, there will continue to be a QB debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superozman Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 YPA in the game vs. the jets was about 4.3 or something...quick math? Anywho. it's awful. And he's gone "Deep" twice in the last two games i can recall. 1 a pass interference 1 the interception. You re begging for people to sit on the routes! Just frustrated at this point, thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartinC Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 The way I look at it is that if you have a team that NEVER has to convert on 3rd down doesn't mean they are not capable of converting on 3rd downs. It just means they are moving the chains within 1st and 2nd downs. So to me 3rd down conversion is not a good stat to measure a QB by. Strangely (its not really strange at all that was an attempt at humor) teams that are good on 1st and 2nd down on offense also tend to be good on 3rd down. Partly thats because if you are successful on 1st and 2nd down you either stay out of 3rd down altogether or you get 3rd and short or manageable and have much better opportunity to convert. Partly its because you have a good ofeense! Teams that are bad on 1st and 2nd down tend to see more 3rd and long which are tough sledding for just about anyone. Again though a high 3rd down conversion percentage does have a high correlation to winning. Its just that, as with many stats, its a product of other factors. Overall then teams with good offenses tend to be good and teams with bad offenses tend to be bad!! Who would have thought it ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lombardi's_kid_brother Posted October 19, 2015 Author Share Posted October 19, 2015 Strangely (its not really strange at all that was an attempt at humor) teams that are good on 1st and 2nd down on offense also tend to be good on 3rd down. Partly thats because if you are successful on 1st and 2nd down you either stay out of 3rd down altogether or you get 3rd and short or manageable and have much better opportunity to convert. Teams that are bad on 1st and 2nd down tend to see more 3rd and long which are tough sledding for just about anyone. Again though a high 3rd down conversion percentage does have a high correlation to winning. Its just that, as with many stats, its a product of other factors. Overall then teams with good offenses tend to be good and teams with bad offenses tend to be bad!! Who would have thought it ... This isn't really the case. The best team on third down in 2014 was the 7-9 Saints. 6-10 Atlanta was tied for 6th with the Patriots. Seattle was just slightly better than Carolina. Again, what matters is being above a baseline. If you were above 40 percent, you at least had a fighting chance for a playoff spot. The only team below 40 that made the playoffs was Detroit. San Diego was the best at it in 2013. They went 9-7. San Diego, Atlanta and New Orleans always seem to be in the top five in third down percentages. For some reason, Detroit made the top ten 2013 even though they missed the playoffs. They fell off a cliff the next year and made the playoffs. You have to be looking at the history of the league when looking at the importance of third down percentage. In the 80s and even well into the 90s, it probably mattered a lot. It just doesn't now. (Actually, my suspicion is that pace of play probably accelerates your third down conversion rate. But I don't care enough to actually try to graph this). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartinC Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 It just doesn't now. Again, thats not what the academic studies show. The one I read a while ago was done I think based on the 2010 season. Edit. Although to be clear I am aware that 3rd down success is a result of many other factors and is not something that happens in a vacum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSO Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 I stick by my assertion that nothing is more important when evaluating a QB's talent than pocket presence and accuracy. Kirk's accuracy has inexplicably went to crap the last two games, and we're seeing the damage. Lot of intermediate routes missed that would've upped his YPA stat. Hope he bounces back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJHJR86 Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 What's baffling to me is the accuracy issue. Has it really been this bad before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zoony Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 I stick by my assertion that nothing is more important when evaluating a QB's talent than pocket presence and accuracy. Kirk's accuracy has inexplicably went to crap the last two games, and we're seeing the damage. Lot of intermediate routes missed that would've upped his YPA stat. Hope he bounces back. Agreed to an extent. But accuracy within context matters You have to know where to go with the ball. You have to read the safety and know where the weakness of the D will be before it happens. Get the ball to the right spot first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSO Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Agreed to an extent. But accuracy within context matters You have to know where to go with the ball. You have to read the safety and know where the weakness of the D will be before it happens. Get the ball to the right spot first Yup, and Kirk is doing that part better than most Skins QBs in forever. Which makes it all the more frustrating that this issue has become one for him. He gets it fixed and he'll immediately improve in a big way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Audible_Red40 Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Hello, dum dums. Kirk is 33 freaking third in the league at 6.23. The only person behind him is Ryan Mallette. Fun fact: I am actually Ryan Mallette. I bet you didn't know that. You're the dumb dumb. It's dumb, not dum, but I know you know that. Also if you were really Ryan "Mallette", you would know how to spell your name as Mallett. But I know you know that too. Good breakdown and I have never really disagree with these formulas. I used to be in a complex fantasy pool that used YPC rather then YPA, but made you really look at both. Also had a category of TD's per completion. Interesting none the less. I also agree with the others. And although not meaning he would be a "better" QB, but his completion percentage could easily be 70% or more if he didn't constantly throw behind his receivers and some of the drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lombardi's_kid_brother Posted October 20, 2015 Author Share Posted October 20, 2015 You're the dumb dumb. It's dumb, not dum, but I know you know that. Also if you were really Ryan "Mallette", you would know how to spell your name as Mallett. But I know you know that too. Good breakdown and I have never really disagree with these formulas. I used to be in a complex fantasy pool that used YPC rather then YPA, but made you really look at both. Also had a category of TD's per completion. Interesting none the less. I also agree with the others. And although not meaning he would be a "better" QB, but his completion percentage could easily be 70% or more if he didn't constantly throw behind his receivers and some of the drops. The Great Gazoo said "dum dum," and I wish I didn't already have a gazillion warning points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan T. Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 I want The Great Gazoo said "dum dum," and I wish I didn't already have a gazillion warning points. I want warning points. How do you get warning points? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Destino Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 I think the most important indicators of great QB at are reading defenses pre and post snap, accuracy under pressure, and knowing how to answer questions in the most generic harmless ways possible. I think most NFL QBs can throw an accurate pass to an open receiver given time and space to step into a throw. Anyone know where I can find stats that track these things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zoony Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 I want I want warning points. How do you get warning points? Be a general arrogant pain in the ass know it all. They come easily to some. Not naming any names though. LKB I think the most important indicators of great QB at are reading defenses pre and post snap, accuracy under pressure, and knowing how to answer questions in the most generic harmless ways possible. I think most NFL QBs can throw an accurate pass to an open receiver given time and space to step into a throw. False in the sense that the great ones start their throwing motion before the WR is open Arm strength and accuracy simply do not matter if you cannot read the D and know where to go with the ball. Jason Campvell was accurate and had good arm strength. So did the other QB that shall remain nameless. But standing there waiting for a guy to come open before you throw is why neither were successful. Game is too fast for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Califan007 The Constipated Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Be a general arrogant pain in the ass know it all. They come easily to some. Not naming any names though. LKB I'm surprised I only have one, then lol... Thank yewwww... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lombardi's_kid_brother Posted October 20, 2015 Author Share Posted October 20, 2015 I think the most important indicators of great QB at are reading defenses pre and post snap, accuracy under pressure, and knowing how to answer questions in the most generic harmless ways possible. I think most NFL QBs can throw an accurate pass to an open receiver given time and space to step into a throw. Anyone know where I can find stats that track these things? I think Kirk is actually pretty good at reading defenses. I mean, the guy is accurate for the most part. I think (and I have no one of proving this) that he sometimes decides where the ball is going pre-snap and any QB will get fooled if they do that too much. Part of the problem is the way that he plays means that mistakes are especially costly. That final drive against the Eagles actually exposes a little bit of this: That thing took 17 plays. A 17 play drive gives you all kinds of opportunities to get a hold or a sack or a misread or a tipped ball or something along those lines. That didn't happen in this one instance, but I don't want to count on a lot of 17 play drives to victory in a season. (It may have been 16 plays). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Destino Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 False in the sense that the great ones start their throwing motion before the WR is open Arm strength and accuracy simply do not matter if you cannot read the D and know where to go with the ball. Jason Campvell was accurate and had good arm strength. So did the other QB that shall remain nameless. But standing there waiting for a guy to come open before you throw is why neither were successful. Game is too fast for that You have a weird way of agreeing with people. I think Kirk is actually pretty good at reading defenses. I mean, the guy is accurate for the most part. I think (and I have no one of proving this) that he sometimes decides where the ball is going pre-snap and any QB will get fooled if they do that too much.Pre and post snap is what I said. Defenses disguise in the NFL and you see the great QBs adjust to the presnap look but when players start moving they recognize it. Kirk struggles there. He also has a tendency to throw weaker passes off his back foot when he starts to feel pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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