twa Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 So, if the Russians actually make a move on Ukraine, how is the EU going to react? Are we going to see some kind of coalition of European troops go into Ukraine and start doing battle with the Russians? do any of them remember how to fight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartinC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 So, if the Russians actually make a move on Ukraine, how is the EU going to react? Are we going to see some kind of coalition of European troops go into Ukraine and start doing battle with the Russians?In real terms the EU can do absolutely nothing. We (the UK) and France have some military assets but nothing that's going to deter Russia and there is no political will to see armed conflict between the EU and Russia over the Ukraine. NATO (read the US) would need to be part of any credible military response from the West and I doubt there is any political will in the US to go to war with Russia over this.Economic and diplomatic pressure is all we can realistically offer and I doubt that's going to deter Putin. do any of them remember how to fight?Yes we do - we (the UK) have been fighting pretty much continually since 1991 alongside US troops in the Middle East. My brother among them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I thought the UK left the EU?....bit early am I? Yes ya'll are still pretty handy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartinC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I thought the UK left the EU?....bit early am I? Yes ya'll are still pretty handy. Watch this space on the EU :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Watch this space on the EU :-) I will my son just left for Romania Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Pro-Russia protesters in Kharkiv earlier beat and dragged pro-Ukraine protesters. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8S0fFw08thA&feature=youtu.be http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2014/03/vladimir_putin_s_crimean_mistake_the_russian_president_is_miscalculating.html Crimea and Punishment With events in Ukraine changing so quickly, it is impossible to predict what will happen next. But now that the Russian parliament has rubber-stamped Russian President Vladimir Putin’s request to invade the country, a few observations are already in order. What seems to have happened in the Crimea this week is a grotesque imitation of the Maidan protests that ousted former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych from office. Under the cover of some street protesters, masked self-defense forces with the help of Ukrainian Berket—evidently including units responsible for the crackdown in Kiev—captured government buildings to force a political decision to recognize Yanukovych as the president of Ukraine. Armed gunmen without identifying insignia captured two airports (as well as a center for investigative journalism), disrupted communications with the mainland, and are blocking some Ukrainian military bases on the peninsula. Early Saturday morning, the Crimean government then requested Russia’s help, as did Yanukovych, who is now obviously Putin’s puppet. That then let Putin plausibly deny his actions as an invasion, casting it instead as an internal Ukrainian affair. No shots have been fired, yet. If the plan is to install Yanukovych in a Russian-controlled Crimean mini-state, it might work, for a while. But that does not mean it will be easy. Putin’s imperialist gambit may turn out to be his Waterloo. To see why, just open a map. That narrow strip of land tethering northern Crimea to the Ukrainian mainland, called the Perokop Isthmus, is the peninsula’s lifeline. What’s left out of most Western analyses of Putin’s brazen military intervention is the Crimea’s complete economic dependence on the mainland, which provides nearly all of its electricity and water and about 70 percent of its food. That’s why the Crimea is even a part of Ukraine. Don’t believe that myth about the peninsula being a “gift” from Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev to what was then the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1954. For laughs, people often add that he did it when he was drunk. That story was actually concocted during the early 1990s, when Russia first started making mischief with pro-Russian separatism. Then, the movement had genuine public support because the collapse of the Soviet Union left a disgruntled Russian majority on the peninsula, including many military retirees for whom Crimea was like a Soviet Florida. But the only reason that Crimea had a Russian majority was because Josef Stalin deported the native Crimean Tatars en masse to Central Asia after World War II and resettled Russians to replace them. https://twitter.com/mpoppel REU: Canada says recalling ambassador from Russia for consultations, suspends engagement in preparations for G8 summit 7:30 PM Kerry: "The U.S. condemns the Russian Federation's invasion and occupation of Ukrainian territory" http://bnowire.com/inbox/?id=2211 7:42 PM Kerry: "[Russia's] action is a threat to the peace and security of Ukraine, and the wider region" 7:43 PM Kerry says, unless immediate steps taken by Russia, situation will have "profound" effect on U.S.-Russian relations 7:44 PM http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/02/world/europe/crimean-tatars-ponder-the-return-of-russian-rule.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-nytimesworld Crimean Tatars Ponder the Return of Russian Rule In a narrow convenience store here in Khoshkeldi, a village of about 1,000 ethnic Tatars just outside the Crimean capital, shoppers came in one after another on Saturday, heads drooping, asking the disconsolate clerk if she had heard the latest. “Who needs a war?” said one, Seit-Umerob Murat, 58, echoing a sentiment expressed by several other shoppers as Russian troops surged into the Crimean Peninsula. “We all have children, grandchildren, families to care for.” He continued: “There’s no real chance of war; at least there shouldn’t be. It’s all being manufactured from above, where the big politics happens. We, people, don’t need war.” With the Kremlin’s seizure of Crimea on Saturday, villagers anxiously considered the prospect of a return of Russian rule, recalling Stalin’s forced deportation of the Muslim Tatars five decades ago. Like most residents, Mr. Murat returned to Crimea from exile in Central Asia in the early 1990s, and Crimean Tatars have lived in relative peace among their ethnic Russian and Ukrainian neighbors since then. “Our people are peaceful, but if they threaten us, our men will defend the community,” Mr. Murat said. “It is better to die here than leave again.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sacase Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I know I am concerned about this. Putin seems dead set on starting another cold war. Edit: Now that I think about it, if Putin proceeds, we might have to stop plans to reduce the Army by 100,000 troops and plus up our heavy brigades again. I seriously hope this is not the beginning of the next cold war. But I got the feeling this is exactly what Putin wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartinC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Probably worth mentioning that parts of the EU - notably Germany - are very dependant on supplies of gas and oil from Russia for their energy supplies (mainly gas). Something to bear in mind when it comes to talk of economic sanctions against Russia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daveakl Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 BBC reporting that the Russians are digging trenches and Ukraine has called up all reservists. This in addition to all three Ukrainian bases in Crimea being surrounded by troops calling on them to surrender. So far Ukrainian troops are holding out. Interim Ukrainian prime minister calls move by Russian forces to surround military bases in Crimea "a declaration of war." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGoodBits Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 So is it pretty much assumed that Russia was behind the poisoning of pro-Western PM candidate Viktor Yushchenko in 2004? He was running for PM against pro-Russia Yanukovych, who was just ousted... There were also widespread allegations of voter fraud in favor of Yanukovych in that election. Seems that Russia has been desperately struggling to maintain influence in that country for over a decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Other than sanctions there is nothing the US or EU can or will do. Putin knows this. If he wants all of Ukraine, he will get it. Even it it means he has to extreminate the Ukrainian population to do it, he will do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 http://www.politico.com/story/2014/03/john-kerry-russia-ukraine-104140.html John Kerry invokes, rejects notion of new Cold War Secretary of State John Kerry took great pains to say Sunday that the Ukrainian crisis isn’t a replay of the Cold War even as he offered up a series of modern-day implications for Russia’s actions against its neighbor. Kerry mentioned a series of sanctions the U.S. and Western allies could take against Russia, the most significant being removing the country from the Group of Eight major democracies. During appearances on each of the three major network’ Sunday shows, Kerry accused Russia of “19th century behavior in the 21st century” while laying out potential penalties for Russia’s actions. “We’re not trying to make this a battle between East and West, we’re not trying to make this a Cold War,” Kerry said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “We hope that this can be resolved according to the standards of the 21st century. And frankly to the standards of the G8. If Russia wants to be a G8 country, it needs to behave like a G8 country.” President Barack Obama, Kerry said, has a “broad array” of economic and diplomatic options the U.S. and its allies can use to punish Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin, for the military foray into Ukrainian territory. “Russia has engaged in a military act of aggression against another country and it has huge risks,” Kerry said. “It’s a 19th century act in the 21st century that really puts at question Russia’s capacity to be within the G8.” Among those options, Kerry said on CBS, include bans on Russian visas to the West, freezing assets of Russian companies and “American businesses may well want to start thinking twice about whether they want to do business with a country that behaves like this.” http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26410431 New head of Ukraine's navy 'defects' in Crimea The newly appointed head of Ukraine's navy has sworn allegiance to the Crimea region, in the presence of its unrecognised pro-Russian leader. Rear Admiral Denis Berezovsky was only made head of the navy on Saturday, as the government in Kiev reacted to the threat of Russian invasion. http://www.kyivpost.com/multimedia/photo/ukrainian-volunteers-prepare-for-war-as-military-on-high-alert-338111.html Ukrainian volunteers prepare for war as military on high alert Andriy Huk, an attorney in Kyiv, received a phone call at 11:15 p.m. March 1 instructing him to come to a recruiting office in the city’s Obolon district the next morning in preparation for national mobilization of the military to o****er Russia's invasion of Crimea. “I have no experience in the army. But if there is mobilization, I will go and fight. People will be ready.” On March 2, the Ukrainian National Security and Defesne Council put the country’s armed forces on high alert in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s takeover of Crimea, which began on Feb. 27, ostensibly to ensure the safety of ethnic Russian minorities on the peninsula of 2.2 million people, most of whom are Russians. “Ukraine’s troops are on the highest alert,” Ukraine’s acting Defense Minister Ihor Teniukh said during a briefing late on March 1. Men from throughout Ukraine were called to military recruitment centers to prepare for the mobilization, bringing them two steps from war -- first, mobilization, secondly, deployment. They were given assignments and told to prepare for deployment, should the Ukrainian government decide to confront the Russian troops that have invaded Ukraine’s Autonomous Republic of Crimea. Men between the age of 18 and 40 have been called into service, and men up to age 55 will be eligible to receive commissions as officers. On March 2, men from Kyiv flooded the city’s 10 district recruitment centers, eagerly waiting in line to receive their orders. Many, like Andriy, were called late at night and instructed to appear the next day. Others however, volunteered to enlist. A representative from the recruitment office in Kyiv’s Pechersk district said that more than 500 men enlisted at his office on March 2. Over half were volunteers. http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/russias-invasion-of-crimea-live-updates-338096.html Russians storm border guard post in Simferopol March 2, 7:27 p.m. Earlier today, a group of civilians and armed Russian soldiers arriving in trucks broke into a border guard detachment in Crima's Simferopol. “The attackers broke down all the doors, destroyed workstations and communication equipment,” Ukraine’s state border guard service said in the report. But Ukraine’s border guard didn’t allow the attackers to take guns. -- Oksana Grytsenko https://twitter.com/sikorskiradek Foreign Minister for Poland I have asked UN SecGen Ban Ki-moon to intervene to protect Ukraine's territorial integrity and prevent escalation of conflict. 10:16 AM https://twitter.com/sanwaldinjo Lviv Mayor addresses Russian-speaking Ukr citizens: Don't believe propaganda,we r different, but we have to stand unitd 11:47 AM http://youtu.be/4_RpRbPaOSM https://twitter.com/grajewski_luk Big (10 000 people) anti-kremlin protest in Odessa: http://bit.ly/NjQO7H via @StasSecrieru pic.twitter.com/R8Nyhp5pci12:05 PM https://twitter.com/Kateryna_Kruk 10s of 1000s march in Odessa today to protest against Russian invasion http://www.reporter.com.ua/news/jao/ pic.twitter.com/g4yWzH3Gx4 12:15 PM https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak David Cameron says because of the "serious situation in Ukraine" he believes it would be wrong for UK ministers to attend Sochi Paralympics 12:24 PM https://twitter.com/MaximEristavi Anti-Putin demo in Dnipropetrovsk today (Eastern Ukraine). Watch the crowd signing Ukrainian national anthem 12:26 PM http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7R_O-XRZLis https://twitter.com/emilynussbaum Strangest payback yet: The state-run Russian network, First Station, has cancelled their airing of The Oscars: http://lenta.ru/news/2014/03/02/nooscar/ 11:56 AM https://twitter.com/ANTDIL Today many protests against Putin in the main cities of Ukraine. Also in that ones "pro russian". Dnepropetrovsk pic.twitter.com/cdmxtWSQ75 12:46 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/03/01/who-are-the-crimean-tatars-and-why-are-they-important/ Who are the Crimean Tatars, and why are they important? Joshua Tucker: As events in Crimea continue to develop on almost an hour-by hour basis, the following is a guest post from Tufts University political scientist Oxana Shevel on the Crimean Tatars, who make up more than 10 percent of the Crimean population. Links to previous Monkey Cage posts regarding developments in Ukraine can be found at the bottom of this post. Russia may be planning to take over Crimea, but several factors make it harder to believe that Russia will be able to establish control and to effectively annex Crimea as it did with South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Transnistria. For one, the Ukrainian side so far has not made any moves that Russia can credibly present as a provocation that necessitates armed response by the Russian side to “protect” its military or its citizens, as was the case in Georgia in 2008. The new Ukrainian government leaders have called for calm, the far right Right Sector said it will not be sending its men to Crimea, and in a conciliatory gesture to Russian-speakers, acting president Turchynov today vetoed the law the Ukrainian parliament adopted several days earlier repealing the 2012 law elevating the status of the Russian language. With the Security Council in session to discuss events in Crimea and Western leaders urging restraint and warning Russia that violations of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity are unacceptable, there is hope that a diplomatic solution to the crisis could be found. But even if diplomacy fails and the Russian military seizes Crimean territory with the intention of controlling it permanently, it will be much harder for Russia to establish control of Crimea than it was in South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Transnistria. The main reason for this is the Crimean Tatars. The Tatars — a Muslim group that was deported en masse from Crimea by Stalin in 1944 and that for decades has waged a peaceful struggle for the right to return — have been coming back in droves since 1989. According to the latest Ukrainian census, from 2001, 243,433 Crimean Tatars account for 12.1 percent of the Crimean population of 2,033,700. They represent a highly mobilized and unified constituency that has consistently been pro-Ukrainian and opposed to pro-Russian separatism on the peninsula. Going back to the 1991 independence referendum, the narrow vote in favor of Ukrainian state independence in Crimea may have been thanks to the vote of the Crimean Tatars. Since then, the Crimean Tatars and their representative organ, the Mejlis, have cooperated with the pro-Ukrainian political parties. Leaders of the Mejlis such as Mustafa Dzhemilev and Refat Chubarov have been members of the Ukrainian parliament elected on the party list of Ukrainian nationalist parties such as Rukh in the 1990s and later from Our Ukraine party. On Feb. 26, the day before the Crimean parliament was taken over by the armed men, Crimean Tatars held a large rally near the parliament that was larger than a simultaneous pro-Russian rally. There has been no comparable local mobilized group opposed to Russian takeover in any other of the breakaway regions. https://twitter.com/MaxRTucker Look familiar? Not Ukraine, Russia. Putin cracks down on protesters against Crimea invasion. via @EastOfBrussels pic.twitter.com/kl51FSTCE0 1:09 PM https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa Serhiy Haiduk replaces Denis Berezovsky as Ukraine's Navy chief. Berezovsky to face treason charges 1:09 PM https://twitter.com/BSpringnote Officers & cadets of Nahimov Military academy in Sevastopol refuse to surrender arms or allow Russians onto their territory 1:05 PM https://twitter.com/MaxRTucker Turkey: We stand with our Tatar brothers against Russia's aggression in Crimea. Turkish FM met Tatar leaders yesterday in Ukraine 1:21 PM http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-liveblog-day-13-beatings-in-kharkiv-defections-in-crimea/#1827 1827 GMT: Tough words from Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk (translated by The Interpreter): Poland’s PM Donald Tusk called for “strong pressure” on Russia. The world shall not leave its eyes of the crisis in Ukraine. “This conflict all signs of the type of conflict that can escalate into a war…. a war which would effect all countries of the world.” A war that would effect “all countries”? A lot of people are wondering if this is hyperbole, or a sage warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMS Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I don't need my president to bluster in front of the world. However, he needs to be ready to make big decisions on this one. JMS listed several of them. More are possible. Russia cannot be allowed by the world to attempt to become imperialists again. Well I think the deal is you start out with baby steps... and you slowly ratchet them up. You let the pressure of the impending sanctions do there work. You telegraph what Russia ultimately will be facing. you give them every opportunity to back down and save face. The best solution is not to destroy Russia economically and isolate it politically.. The best solution is to get them to rejoin the world community, respect international boarders, and continue to prosper and grow closer to the west and the world. To accomplish this we move slow, and deliberately, and ratchet up the pressure. We don't get hot, we don't play their game of military confrontation. We could, but it's not economically efficient. We just get Russia to face what everybody else already knows. This was a futile move which won't benifit Russia in the long run. The cold war is over and Russia is incapable of renewing it. She's just lost too many pieces since we called her the Soviet Union. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMS Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Probably worth mentioning that parts of the EU - notably Germany - are very dependant on supplies of gas and oil from Russia for their energy supplies (mainly gas). Something to bear in mind when it comes to talk of economic sanctions against Russia. Which is another reason why Russia is being so dumb here. Four years ago that was a very powerful incentive to not impose Sanctions against Russia.. Today however new methodologies for Natural Gas and Oil production has said production at record highs. Canada has the worlds second largest reserves of oil. Domestic US oil and natural gas production are at record highs and the US is a net exporter of both for the first time in decades. Today there is a glut of production on the market and The West could have an easier time playing hard ball with Russia on their exports. So not only is the US oil and natural Gass production up... US is now the #1 leader in Natural Gas Production. But what has given us all this natural gas oil shale. Western Europe also has Oil Shale. They've got it in Spain, in Poland, and the UK. Given all that oil shale some are saying Europe could become energy independent much as the United States has in the last few years using the same technology we've pioneered... EU has already legalized frakng. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMS Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Deeply concerned about how things are shaping up. I hope that this is mostly sabre rattling. Russia needs to back out of this instead of escalating it. From what I've been told they are worried about the EU deal mainly because they hate the idea of a NATO base that close and especially defensive missile batteries that close. They have been on the wrong side of so many things recently. They need to get their fear and pride under control. Yeah I think the Real issue is Russia's best Ports on the Black Sea are either in the Crimea (leased from Ukraine), or have to traverse the narrow straight between the Sea of Azoz and the Black Sea between Crimea and Russia. If Russia were to allow the Ukraine, and more specifically Crimea to fall into unfriendly hands she could potentially loose access to nearly all her best shipping ports; making Russia effectively the worlds largest land locked country. The exception to this is St. Petersburg in the north and maybe Arch Angel. Russia would still have those ports, very far removed from the Med and Suez though.. Back in Peter the Great's day, Russia fought a continuous stream of wars with the Ottoman Empire to get access to the Black Sea and to allow her shipping out to the Greater Mediterranean. Anything which threatens those ports is going to ring Russia's xenophobic bell loudly. So it boils down to Russia being a huge dick and taking what it wants/needs, or Russia laying down and putting themselves at the mercy of the west... That's the calculation running through Putin's mind. The indigenous Russian speaking peoples of the Crimea are irrelevant. They are just an excuse the security of the ports and Russia's shipping is what is driving Putin here. It's not enough for a pro western Ukraine to sign a treaty ensuring the ability for Russia's shipping to traverse the straight.... I mean after all if Putin signed such a deal he would not think twice of violating it if Ukraine pissed him off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slateman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/02/us-ukraine-crisis-usa-kerry-idUSBREA210DG20140302"You just don't in the 21st century behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped up pre-text," Kerry told the CBS program "Face the Nation.":lmao: Oh you mean they're behaving like the US in 2003!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMS Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/02/us-ukraine-crisis-usa-kerry-idUSBREA210DG20140302 "You just don't in the 21st century behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped up pre-text," Kerry told the CBS program "Face the Nation." :lmao: Oh you mean they're behaving like the US in 2003!? I remember when Condi Rice was talking about Russia's invasion of Georgia back in 2008. Same kind of statements. It's like our foreign policy experts are just confused and dumbfounded by Russia's moves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I would think, though, that if ports are the major Russian interest, then that's something that can be negotiated with the application of money. Give them a 99-year lease on some ports, in exchange for something (money, either some cash payment or some kind of duty on everything shipped). Get that passage some kind of international free passage status (like I think the Persian Gulf, Suez, and Panama have). http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/02/us-ukraine-crisis-usa-kerry-idUSBREA210DG20140302 "You just don't in the 21st century behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped up pre-text," Kerry told the CBS program "Face the Nation." :lmao: Oh you mean they're behaving like the US in 2003!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 http://www.buzzfeed.com/luciankim/obamas-response-to-russian-invasion-of-crimea-is-pathetic-ta Obama’s Response To Russian Invasion Of Crimea Is “Pathetic”: Tatar Official Crimea’s embattled ethnic Tatar minority demanded that the U.S. flex its military muscle to stop Russian forces from overrunning the southern Ukrainian region.“The Sixth Fleet should be here. We should see it,” Ali Hamzin, 55, the nominal foreign minister of the Crimean Tatar community, said in an interview. “Today, only the U.S. can preserve the territorial integrity and independence of Ukraine.”President Barack Obama’s threat to boycott the G8 summit of industrial nations in Sochi if Russia doesn’t withdraw its troops was “pathetic,” Hamzin said. Obama spoke with President Vladimir Putin on the phone for 90 minutes on Saturday as Russian forces were fanning out across the Crimean peninsula.“Putin will kiss Obama’s hands and feet for that reaction,” said Hamzin, who is in charge of foreign relations for the Crimean Tatar council, or Mejlis, the Tatar community’s representative body. “The aggressor must be stopped by aggressive, forceful means.” https://twitter.com/Ukroblogger Pple wave flags on rooftoops in Khrerson. Whatever Putin gains in Crimea, he will lose elswhre http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFXHLxQMYHI https://twitter.com/mpoppel REU: NATO CALLS ON RUSSIA TO WITHDRAW FORCES BACK TO BASES AND REFRAIN FROM INTERFERING ELSEWHERE IN UKRAINE - RASMUSSEN 2:57 PM REU: NATO URGES RUSSIA AND UKRAINE TO SEEK PEACEFUL RESOLUTION THROUGH DIALOGUE UNDER AUSPICES OF U.N. SECURITY COUNCIL OR OSCE 2:57 PM REU: GERMAN GOVT SPOX SAYS PUTIN ACCEPTED MERKEL PROPOSAL FOR “FACT-FINDING MISSION”, POSSIBLY LED BY OSCE, TO START POLITICAL DIALOGUE 3:28 PM https://twitter.com/MahirZeynalov Germany: Merkel accused Putin in phone call of having breached international law with 'unacceptable Russian intervention' in Crimea. 3:29 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kindred Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yeah I think the Real issue is Russia's best Ports on the Black Sea are either in the Crimea (leased from Ukraine), or have to traverse the narrow straight between the Sea of Azoz and the Black Sea between Crimea and Russia. If Russia were to allow the Ukraine, and more specifically Crimea to fall into unfriendly hands she could potentially loose access to nearly all her best shipping ports; making Russia effectively the worlds largest land locked country. The exception to this is St. Petersburg in the north and maybe Arch Angel. Russia would still have those ports, very far removed from the Med and Suez though.. Back in Peter the Great's day, Russia fought a continuous stream of wars with the Ottoman Empire to get access to the Black Sea and to allow her shipping out to the Greater Mediterranean. Anything which threatens those ports is going to ring Russia's xenophobic bell loudly. So it boils down to Russia being a huge dick and taking what it wants/needs, or Russia laying down and putting themselves at the mercy of the west... That's the calculation running through Putin's mind. The indigenous Russian speaking peoples of the Crimea are irrelevant. They are just an excuse the security of the ports and Russia's shipping is what is driving Putin here. It's not enough for a pro western Ukraine to sign a treaty ensuring the ability for Russia's shipping to traverse the straight.... I mean after all if Putin signed such a deal he would not think twice of violating it if Ukraine pissed him off. In addition to protecting Russia's ports, if some agreement were made that neither NATO nor Russia would have a military base/presence in Ukraine/Crimea, that might pacify all parties. Russia would have to give up its base in exchange for a pact that NATO will not set up shop there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nonniey Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yeah I think the Real issue is Russia's best Ports on the Black Sea are either in the Crimea (leased from Ukraine), or have to traverse the narrow straight between the Sea of Azoz and the Black Sea between Crimea and Russia. If Russia were to allow the Ukraine, and more specifically Crimea to fall into unfriendly hands she could potentially loose access to nearly all her best shipping ports; making Russia effectively the worlds largest land locked country. Wonder if sanctions could include closing the Bosphorus and Dardanelle straights to all Russian shipping? That would be a heck of hard hitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Destino Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I was reading about this today and thinking "I hope China doesn't choose this moment to make a move of it's own". Right now this looks like Putin being the **** everyone knows him to be. If China decides to make a similar move then it becomes a statement that America isn't seen as an obstacle anymore. This also shows how useless the UN is. When the US wants to do anything (like Syria) Russia is quick to veto and the US feels the pressure. When Russia wants to do something they forget what the UN is entirely, they simply do as they wish. Why do we continue to pretend the UN is anything but a money pit? It allows the slaughter of people all over the world and when it does agree to action, only does so begrudgingly long after it's member nations would have acted had they not had to work through the UN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kindred Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I was reading about this today and thinking "I hope China doesn't choose this moment to make a move of it's own". Right now this looks like Putin being the **** everyone knows him to be. If China decides to make a similar move then it becomes a statement that America isn't seen as an obstacle anymore. This also shows how useless the UN is. When the US wants to do anything (like Syria) Russia is quick to veto and the US feels the pressure. When Russia wants to do something they forget what the UN is entirely, they simply do as they wish. Why do we continue to pretend the UN is anything but a money pit? It allows the slaughter of people all over the world and when it does agree to action, only does so begrudgingly long after it's member nations would have acted had they not had to work through the UN. The alternative to the UN would be direct actions by countries as they deem necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Wonder if sanctions could include closing the Bosphorus and Dardanelle straights to all Russian shipping? That would be a heck of hard hitter. And an act of war, I would say. Blockading somebody's ports? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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