JMS Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 UN SC meeting on CNN now. Powers is laying into Russian propaganda now. Visionary... your coverage of this on ES is better than CNN or MSNBC... It's even better than the BBC which is the only decent coverage on TV.. You should get a Peabody or something... You should get some sort of icon next to your name... The ES exceptional news award... first annual recipient.. visionary.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexey Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'm hearing that people from Russian areas that neighbor eastern Ukraine are being offered 2k roubles to get on the bus, go into Ukraine, and cause trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMS Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 How does this action by Russia affect us? I don't think we need to respond at all at this point We definitely need to respond. We are the leader of the free world, and to not respond is to vacate and abandon that role and compound the crisis going on in Ukraine. How does it affect us? * Destabilizes Europe our largest trade partner. * Puts in jeopardy hundreds of billion in trade? * Potentially creates another pocket of instability like Afghanistan which just cost us 600 billion, and 2000 lives in a failed attempt to address. * Casts doubt on our commitment to international law, peace, and stability abroad; something we count on when doing business abroad? * Casts a shadow of fear across the entire region even among countries we are treaty bound to protect, a fear we now have a diminished capacity to deflect. Poland, Latvia, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia... * Encourages the notion that a local bully can impose it's will on it's weaker nation who relied on our assurances of security. Given Putin is a now proven whackadoodle, this sets a very dangerous precedent who's ramifications will effect us until this situation is resolved and maybe beyond that. Obama has a good handle on how he's going to deal with this. Putin is shooting himself in the foot and Obama is just going to sit back and let him pepper away... In the interim however, it certainly makes the US appear weak, and Russia appear strong. That's not good for global security which we've spent hundreds of thousands of lives and trillions of dollars subsidizing ever since emerging as a global super power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMS Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'm hearing that people from Russian areas that neighbor eastern Ukraine are being offered 2k roubles to get on the bus, go into Ukraine, and cause trouble. BBC interviewed one of the protesters in Eastern Ukraine who stormed the local government building and raised the Russian flag over it.. He was from Moscow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 https://twitter.com/MaximEristavi I'm also Russian speaking person, but I don't need any support- says Ukraine's amb to @UN & starts speaking Russian pic.twitter.com/0c3J23rVkg 4:52 PM https://twitter.com/lrozen US, UK, France, Australia, Lithuania, Jordan, Chile, Luxembourg condemn Russian action in Ukraine. China hedges. 4:46 PM Ukraine envoy's civility & restraint under the circumstances admirable. All the UN envoys sound grave today except Churkin 4:56 PM https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa Sergeyev: How could Feb 21 peace treaty be filled in if Yanukovych defected after signing it? 4:56 PM Sergeyev: Russia justifies its action with a request for protection by so called Crimea's PM Aksyonov who was appointed illegally 5:00 PM https://twitter.com/lrozen Churkin: first I wd like to congratulate Ukraine envoy, spoke in English, French & Russian. first time I heard him speak here in Russian. 5:01 PM Churkin says hopes he hears his Ukraine colleague speak more Russian. (!) 5:02 PM https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa Churkin on Yanukovych: Let's be honest, a lot of democratic countries have bills prohibiting people from blocking roads and wearing masks 5:03 PM Churkin: We want true democracy for Ukraine 5:05 PM Churkin: Those national radicals in Ukraine aren't interested in OSCE monitoring. God knows what might happen till it begins mission 5:13 PM https://twitter.com/MaximEristavi Russia's @UN amb Churkin: When it comes to Ukraine, US authorities are fooled by lies from American media pic.twitter.com/gaPjLVuknK 5:11 PM That doesn't even make sense from a Russian point of view.... https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa Amb Power: Except for Russia, we've heard overwhelming support for territorial integrity of Ukraine at UNSC 5:19 PM Power: Why not support peaceful solution? Only that who fears the truth, will reject monitory mission 5:20 PM France's Rep Araud: Russia occupied Ukraine. It's clear. We can see it on TV. Euromaidan protesters aren't radicals and extremists. 5:22 PM https://twitter.com/AnupKaphle Russian ambassador: "I would ask the French colleague not to engage in hyperbole. We don't need hyperbole." 5:23 PM https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa Churkin answering Grants's question on whether he approves to send OSCE mission to Crimea: We're not at OSCE, how can I tell you something 5:26 PM https://twitter.com/APDiploWriter Liberte, fraternite, egalite and honeste: French ambassador to UN: This UNSC session on Ukraine was "totally useless." 5:53 PM Ha ha! (ok, time to take a break and play a video game and finish re-listening to The Way Of Kings for a little while. Hopefully nothing crazy happens in the meantime) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearrock Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 One sidebar to all this. If the world stand aside and let Russia unilaterally annex part of Ukraine, which seems obvious to everyone except Russia, isn't this exactly the kind of scenario used by countries like North Korea and Iran uses to argue the necessity of becoming a nuclear power. Apparently, the only deterrents to a super power's unilateral action are the conflicting self interest of another super power or nuclear deterrent. Doesn't non-proliferation only work if super powers keep each other in check? At this point, I would even question the willingness of the nuclear umbrella. Would countries really retaliate a nuclear strike of another country which would assure mutual destruction or just say it doesn't concern us? At some point, there is the broader issue: Russia, you can't do this. We should leave this kind of behavior behind in the 20th century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KuNiT21 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 We definitely need to respond. We are the leader of the free world, and to not respond is to vacate and abandon that role and compound the crisis going on in Ukraine. How does it affect us? * Destabilizes Europe our largest trade partner. * Puts in jeopardy hundreds of billion in trade? * Potentially creates another pocket of instability like Afghanistan which just cost us 600 billion, and 2000 lives in a failed attempt to address. * Casts doubt on our commitment to international law, peace, and stability abroad; something we count on when doing business abroad? * Casts a shadow of fear across the entire region even among countries we are treaty bound to protect, a fear we now have a diminished capacity to deflect. Poland, Latvia, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia... * Encourages the notion that a local bully can impose it's will on it's weaker nation who relied on our assurances of security. Given Putin is a now proven whackadoodle, this sets a very dangerous precedent who's ramifications will effect us until this situation is resolved and maybe beyond that. Obama has a good handle on how he's going to deal with this. Putin is shooting himself in the foot and Obama is just going to sit back and let him pepper away... In the interim however, it certainly makes the US appear weak, and Russia appear strong. That's not good for global security which we've spent hundreds of thousands of lives and trillions of dollars subsidizing ever since emerging as a global super power. As someone like myself who is by no means an Obama supporter, my thought process is the same as yours in these events. I'm surprised this thread does not have 100+ pages right now. This is some serious business right now......I just believe the US is being tested right now on purpose to show how weak of a country we are right now. I like the sit back approach because I believe the American people spoke on the Syrian concern loud and made very clear we do not want war. At the same time like you stated, the US is appearing very weak in the last couple of years. Seems that nothing good is going to come out of this situation Obama is in a damned if he does, damned if he doesn't situation and for that i feel for him. And for politicians complaining of Obama doing nothing, just remember it was Obama who wanted to do an attack on Syria along with those radical "GOP Dolts" you speak of. Meanwhile some of those "GOP Dolts" like Rand Paul listened to the America people, praised Obama for using congress, and voted NO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
velocet Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 JMS, You're right of course about visionary's work in this thread. He's butter 'cause he's on a roll. Frankly, everyone has done much to make a proper thread of this. velocet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 Thanks. I'm just trying to do my part to help keep folks informed/updated. It's been an interesting thread so far. (JMS especially has made some fascinating points.) I'll check back later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sacase Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Visionary is always great in these major world events type threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Predicto Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 There is no evidence to indicate that they have any interest in Poland or Alaska much less the rest of Ukraine. They want to secure access to their naval base. I don't think we can be sure of what they want - only of what they are currently doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stadium-Armory Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Yep, props to visionary. For those supporting stronger action, what tactic would you take other than condemn, sanction and complain? Please raise your hand if you are suggesting US or NATO military action. Because those suggesting this is analogous to WW2 are (I assume) suggesting as such. I don't think we can be sure of what they want - only of what they are currently doing. True. Its a guess based on the lead up and timing. It seems like a response to the notion at a pro western regime is around the corner and they don't want to lose control of the black fleet's home. Potentially they want to control all of Ukraine, that is certainly a possibility. Add: I wouldn't be surprised to see Ukraine escalate by means of a military clash in the hopes that it ratchets up the pressure on the international community to act. Even then, I still don't see NATO airstrikes or anything of the sort. As it stands now, there is no bloodshed and thus no immediate action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Unless, it affects one personally; noone is going to care. Obama scares noone. Sanctions don't frighten Russia. Putin could go Clint Eastwood on everyone and say, MAKE MY DAY. Frankly, if I were the Chinese; I would be launching the invasion of Taiwan immediately. Obama isn't going to go war with anyone. Putin will take what he wants. The only thing desposts, terrorists and the like understand is force. You want to stop Putin, you have to kill him. Putin knows that isn't happening. Russians have survived hundreds of years under tough situations; they can surive the Obama sanctions. I really doubt most the U.S. would last long; say if we had no power after an EMP attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stadium-Armory Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 We would respond militarily to an invasion of Taiwan. Unless, it affects one personally; noone is going to care. Obama scares noone. Sanctions don't frighten Russia. Putin could go Clint Eastwood on everyone and say, MAKE MY DAY. Frankly, if I were the Chinese; I would be launching the invasion of Taiwan immediately. Obama isn't going to go war with anyone. Putin will take what he wants. I think what you're saying is that inaction is a sign of weakness that will be exploited by the Russians and others. There's something to be said for that. Maybe we hold some war games with a neighbor of theirs? Or send the 6th fleet in to the black sea? What would you chose to do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 We would respond militarily to an invasion of Taiwan. I think what you're saying is that inaction is a sign of weakness that will be exploited by the Russians and others. There's something to be said for that. Maybe we hold some war games with a neighbor of theirs? Or send the 6th fleet in to the black sea? What would you chose to do? I know treaty wise, we are bound to but really would we. We are going to send a bunch sons and daugthers to die protecting Taiwanese? I would let the Europeans handle it. I dont expect them to do ****. Only thing you can do is impose sanctions but it won't mean **** to the Putin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted March 4, 2014 Author Share Posted March 4, 2014 http://www.stripes.com/us-suspends-all-military-activities-with-russia-1.270991 US suspends all military activities with Russia The U.S. Defense Department says it is suspending exercises and other activities with the Russian military over Moscow's military involvement in Ukraine. A Pentagon spokesman, Navy Rear Adm. John Kirby, said Monday evening that the U.S. military has "put on hold" all military-to-military engagements, including bilateral meetings, port visits and planning conferences. http://www.politico.com/story/2014/03/us-eu-prepare-retaliation-russia-104201.html U.S., EU move to retaliate against Russia U.S. and European leaders are preparing to ratchet up economic and diplomatic pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin if he fails to bring a quick end to his military’s incursion into Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula. President Barack Obama said in the Oval Office on Monday that the United States is readying a series of economic and diplomatic steps that would “isolate Russia,” such as halting trade talks, banning travel visas and freezing the country’s government and business leaders’ assets in overseas financial institutions. The first moves came Monday evening, when U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman’s office suspended its early-stage talks with Russia over a bilateral investment treaty less than a week after Russia’s economic development minister promised quick progress on the pact during a trip to Washington. The United States also blocked officials from Russia’s agricultural oversight agency, Rosselkhoznadzor, from making a planned visit to Washington. Those officials were scheduled to participate in regulatory talks Tuesday and Thursday tied to neighboring Kazakhstan’s effort to join the World Trade Organization. European foreign ministers, meanwhile, warned after their meeting Monday in Brussels of “targeted measures,” starting with restricting travel visas for Russian citizens and calling off negotiations on expanding trade and investment, if Putin does not order his forces to stand down. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said Russia has until an emergency meeting of the European Union’s 28 leaders on Thursday to pull out of Ukraine before sanctions are imposed. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/04/world/europe/top-russians-face-sanctions-by-us-for-crimea-crisis.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-nytimes&_r=0 Top Russians Face Sanctions by U.S. for Crimea Crisis The United States prepared Monday to impose sanctions on high-level Russian officials involved in the military occupation of Crimea, as the escalating crisis in Ukraine prompted turmoil in global markets, pounding the Russian ruble and driving up energy prices. The Obama administration suspended military ties to Russia, including exercises, port visits and planning meetings, just a day after calling off trade talks. If Moscow does not reverse course, officials said they would ban visas and freeze assets of select Russian officials in the chain of command as well as target state-run financial institutions. Congressional leaders signaled that they would follow with sanctions of their own, and quickly approve economic aid for the fragile, new pro-Western government in Ukraine. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/04/world/europe/russias-hand-can-be-seen-in-the-protests.html From Russia, ‘Tourists’ Stir the Protests Around the south and east of Ukraine, in vital cities in the country’s industrial heartland, ethnic Russians have staged demonstrations and stormed buildings demanding a wider invasion of their country by Moscow. But some of the people here calling for Russian intervention are themselves Russian — “protest tourists” from across the border. They have included passport-carrying Russians, like Aleksey Khudyakov, a pro-Kremlin Muscovite who said he traveled here “to watch and maybe to give some advice.” In Kharkiv, another Russian scaled a government building to dramatically plant his country’s flag — offering at least the image that President Vladimir V. Putin’s forces were being invited in. It is clear that in this part of Ukraine, many ethnic Russians distrust the fledgling government and some would indeed welcome Russian troops. But the events unfolding in major Ukrainian cities in recent days appear to match a pattern played by the Kremlin in Crimea, where pro-Moscow forces paving the way for Russia to seize control were neither altogether spontaneous, nor entirely local. http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/zbigniew-brzezinski-after-putins-aggression-in-ukraine-the-west-must-be-ready-to-respond/2014/03/03/25b3f928-a2f5-11e3-84d4-e59b1709222c_story.html What is to be done? Putin’s aggression in Ukraine needs a response Zbigniew Brzezinski was national security adviser from 1977 to 1981. Regarding the Russian aggression against Ukraine, much depends on what Vladimir Putin does next. But what Putin does depends on not only his calculation of the likely NATO (and especially the U.S.) response but also his estimate of how fiercely the Ukrainian people would respond to any further escalation by Russia. And, to complete the circle, the Ukrainian response would be influenced by citizens’ reaction to any further repetition of Putin’s Crimean aggression and by whether the nation believes that the United States and NATO are truly supportive. Putin’s thuggish tactics in seizing Crimea offer some hints regarding his planning. He knew in advance that his thinly camouflaged invasion would meet with popular support from the Russian majority in Crimea. He was not sure how the thin and light Ukrainian military units stationed there would react, so he went in masked like a Mafia gangster. In the event of serious Ukrainian resistance, he could disown the initiative and pull back. His initial success may tempt him to repeat that performance more directly in the far eastern provinces of Ukraine proper. If successful, the conclusive third phase could then be directed, through a combination of political unrest and increasingly overt use of Russian forces, to overthrow the government in Kiev. The result would thus be similar to the two phases of Hitler’s seizure of the Sudetenland after Munich in 1938 and the final occupation of Prague and Czechoslovakia in early 1939. https://twitter.com/yarotrof Latvian theater cancels tour of Russia to protest "aggression in Ukraine" Start of a boycott movement? http://lenta.ru/news/2014/03/04/notheatre/ 10:02 PM http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/us-ukraine-crisis-crimea-power-idUSBREA2227220140303 Crimean authorities to cut power, water to Ukrainian troops: Russian ex-lawmaker Pro-Russian authorities in Crimea will cut off water and electricity to Ukrainian soldiers in bases surrounded by Russian forces on Monday night, a Russian former lawmaker loyal to President Vladimir Putin said. Sergei Markov, who held meetings with pro-Russian authorities on the Ukrainian peninsula earlier on Monday, told reporters the soldiers would also be told they would not receive their next pay packet if they did not publicly renounce their loyalty to the new provisional government in Kiev, the capital. "If they stay here and remain loyal to Kiev and the Ukrainian government, it will become more uncomfortable for them," said Markov, who sits in a Kremlin-backed public policy chamber. "The pressure is going to increase tonight." http://thelead.blogs.cnn.com/2014/03/03/fmr-u-s-ambassador-to-russia-russian-claims-of-violence-in-ukraine-are-complete-fantasy/ Fmr. U.S. Ambassador to Russia: Russian claims of violence in Ukraine are 'complete fantasy' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abdcskins Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I hope they we for once keep to ourselves and remain uninvolved. Let these countries (Europe) take care of this mess themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted March 4, 2014 Author Share Posted March 4, 2014 https://twitter.com/AnshelPfeffer Belbek airbase. Half the base surrendered to the Russians. The other is still holding out. pic.twitter.com/z3UfSIkaL5 12:33 AM https://twitter.com/usv1980 A new Russian law will allow Russian citizenship to any Russian-speaking person with USSR descent. Pre-1991 understanding of "our people". 12:53 AM https://twitter.com/bishopk Quiet, cold and hazy day in Sevastopol. No sign of any ultimatum being enforced. 12:58 AM https://twitter.com/AnshelPfeffer Colonel Yuli Mamchuk, Balbek base commander reviewing his men at morning parade Crimea Ukraine pic.twitter.com/8GBcIAloXC 1:01 AM https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak Reuters: Kremlin spokesman says Russian President Vladimir Putin orders troops engaged in military exercises to return to their bases 1:06 AM Not sure if this means the ones doing exercises in Russia and elsewhere to prepare for something, or if this is a code for saying that they're withdrawing forces from Ukraine/Crimea. (was going to post that earlier, but my internet wasn't working) Whoa: https://twitter.com/shustry Commander of Ukraine's Belbek base just got a call from Russian counterpart. Another ultimatum: surrender by 16:00. This is the 3rd one 12:58 AM Ukraine column has reached Russian checkpoint. Russians begin firing in the air. Ukrainians keep marching 1:24 AM Ukraine column has reached Russian checkpoint. Russians begin firing in the air. Ukrainians keep marching 1:50 AM Russians call commander to negotiate. Troops have RPGs and machine guns trained on the column of unarmed Ukrainian soldiers. Belbek, Crimea 1:55 AM https://twitter.com/shustry Ukraine Colonel still negotiating, Russian snipers & RPGs still aiming at column of soldiers. But deescalation is clear, at least in Belbek 2:48 AM Personnel carrier just arrived, disgorging armed Russian troops at checkpoint. Ukraine commander just finished negotiating. 2:52 AM Ukraine commander demands to guard the base jointly with Russians, who pledge to give their commanders' response by 12:00, in 2 hours 2:56 AM https://twitter.com/bishopk Kremlin aide: If US imposes sanctions on Russia, Moscow might drop the dollar as a reserve currency & refuse to pay off loans to U.S. banks. 3:14 AM I don't know much about finance, so anyone want to explain what that could mean if they go through with it? Putin is supposed to give an address soon, maybe he already started.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted March 4, 2014 Author Share Posted March 4, 2014 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/05/world/europe/ukraine.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-nytimesworld&_r=0 Putin Ends Military Exercise on Ukraine Border President Vladimir V. Putin on Tuesday ended the surprise military exercise he ordered last week, as scheduled, and ordered the military units that participated to return to their permanent garrisons. The exercise coincided with the deployment of Russian special forces troops to Crimea beginning last Friday, though officials maintained it was not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine. Nothing the Kremlin reported on Tuesday suggested that the Russian operations in Crimea would end. The military exercise involved the mobilization of the entire Western Military District, which stretches from the border of Ukraine to the Arctic, as well as units from the Central Military District, the Baltic Fleet and air defense commands. The troops dispatched to Ukraine are reported to have deployed from ports and airfields in the Southern Military District. Mr. Putin ordered the mobilization only days before Russian forces began spreading through Crimea, and despite officials reassurances to the contrary, the timing and scale of the operations had a palpable message. Mr. Putin attended the culmination of the exercises near St. Petersburg on Monday, appearing in state television reports observing live-fire training involving tanks and helicopters. Lots of pictures now of Ukrainian soldiers standing around with their wives and smoking while waiting to see what Russia does next. Seems a bit more relaxed for now. Hmmm, not sure if this is good or bad news. Possibly propaganda in the making: https://twitter.com/shustry Russian military truck just brought a handful of (probably Russian) news crews to the Belbek standoff. They're now filming from Russian side 3:37 AM https://twitter.com/AnshelPfeffer Groups of pro Russia Crimeans are coming to base to try & evict the Ukrainian soldiers. A platoon has been dispatched to guard perimeter 3:56 AM Putin still hasn't spoken yet, or it hasn't been released to the public. Russian media now saying the message is being recorded at the moment. http://news.yahoo.com/russia-warns-could-reduce-zero-economic-dependency-us-083926261.html;_ylt=AwrTWf2AkhVToTMAn2_QtDMD Russia warns could 'reduce to zero' economic dependency on US Russia could reduce to zero its economic dependency on the United States if Washington agreed sanctions against Moscow over Ukraine, a Kremlin aide said on Tuesday, warning that the American financial system faced a "crash" if this happened. "We would find a way not just to reduce our dependency on the United States to zero but to emerge from those sanctions with great benefits for ourselves," said Kremlin economic aide Sergei Glazyev, saying Russia could stop using dollars for international transactions. "An attempt to announce sanctions would end in a crash for the financial system of the United States, which would cause the end of the domination of the United States in the global financial system," he added Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMS Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I know treaty wise, we are bound to but really would we. We are going to send a bunch sons and daugthers to die protecting Taiwanese? I would let the Europeans handle it. I dont expect them to do ****. Only thing you can do is impose sanctions but it won't mean **** to the Putin. We are not bound by treaty to respond militarily to an invasion of Taiwan... The President is bound only to consult with the speaker of the house and Senate majority leader if Taiwan came under attack. The only countries in Asia we are treaty bound to defend to my knowledge our South Korea, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand.. The last two being among our "five eyes" allies, symbolizing our closest allies. We have never had a defense treaty with Taiwan.. President George W. Bush made a statement about an American commitment to defend Taiwan, but he did so in error, and was quickly corrected by the white house spokesman. What has protected Taiwan from Chinese invasion is largely the threat of an American reprisal, but never a guaranteed reprisal. I don't see how what is going on in Ukraine would diminish the US's threat. The facts are we have never had any agreement or extended any security umbrella to Ukraine. Ukraine has never been all that interested in joining with NATO and has just recently been interested in joining the EU.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMS Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I would let the Europeans handle it. I dont expect them to do ****. Only thing you can do is impose sanctions but it won't mean **** to the Putin. Sanctions have to be coordinated to be effective. It doesn't matter if the US cut's off Russia's credit if Germany extends them credit. I think sanctions can be very very meaningful if the West is willing to commit and put up with the collateral damage. Germany get's 30% of it's natural gas from Russia. France has many millions of dollars worth of arms yet to be delivered to Russia she will have to eat. UK is a primary benefactor of Russian investment dollars. To freeze Russia's assets will cost the west.. Any kind of sanctions is going to impact the west. Germany is already balking at freezing the personal assets of Russia's leaders. If Crimea is the only victem and a shooting war doesn't errupt it's going to be difficult for the US to convince all of the EU to play hardball with Putin.. But if they do play hardball, if the EU agrees to it, It would be a serious economic blow to Russia. The Russian economy is totally integrated with the Wests, being politically isolated and then cut off from the infrastructure she's dependent upon, would totally cripple them. The Soviet Union could handle such treatment, but Russia's not the Soviet Union. Not any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartinC Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Which is another reason why Russia is being so dumb here. Four years ago that was a very powerful incentive to not impose Sanctions against Russia.. Today however new methodologies for Natural Gas and Oil production has said production at record highs. Canada has the worlds second largest reserves of oil. Domestic US oil and natural gas production are at record highs and the US is a net exporter of both for the first time in decades. Today there is a glut of production on the market and The West could have an easier time playing hard ball with Russia on their exports. So not only is the US oil and natural Gass production up... US is now the #1 leader in Natural Gas Production. But what has given us all this natural gas oil shale. Western Europe also has Oil Shale. They've got it in Spain, in Poland, and the UK. Given all that oil shale some are saying Europe could become energy independent much as the United States has in the last few years using the same technology we've pioneered... EU has already legalized frakng. Yep - we have already started test drilling in the UK for fracking - its still controversial over here. In the short term though some European countries and especially Germany are VERY dependant on supplies of gas and oil for Russia for their domestic energy needs. In the medium term they could (and almost certainly are) looking to reduce that dependancy but in the short term the are very vulnerable to Russia turning off the gas taps. Lights and heating would literally go out/off in Germany. Sanctions have to be coordinated to be effective. It doesn't matter if the US cut's off Russia's credit if Germany extends them credit. I think sanctions can be very very meaningful if the West is willing to commit and put up with the collateral damage. Germany get's 30% of it's natural gas from Russia. France has many millions of dollars worth of arms yet to be delivered to Russia she will have to eat. UK is a primary benefactor of Russian investment dollars. To freeze Russia's assets will cost the west.. Any kind of sanctions is going to impact the west. Germany is already balking at freezing the personal assets of Russia's leaders. If Crimea is the only victem and a shooting war doesn't errupt it's going to be difficult for the US to convince all of the EU to play hardball with Putin.. But if they do play hardball, if the EU agrees to it, It would be a serious economic blow to Russia. The Russian economy is totally integrated with the Wests, being politically isolated and then cut off from the infrastructure she's dependent upon, would totally cripple them. The Soviet Union could handle such treatment, but Russia's not the Soviet Union. Not any more. I agree with most of the above. Most of the inward investment in the UK from Russia though is in property (domestic and retail) and is mainly in London. The major result of that is property prices climbing to unsustainable long term levels mainly in central London. If Russia stopped investing it would do as much good as harm in the UK. Long term I think coordinated economic sanctions and a gradual closing off of Russia from global markets would do serious damage to Russia's economy which is already very unbalanced and on shaky foundations. I'm not sure that threat of pain in the long term will be enough to deter Putin in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMS Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I don't know much about finance, so anyone want to explain what that could mean if they go through with it? Putin is supposed to give an address soon, maybe he already started.... Russia has about $131.6 billion in US Loans.. So that's like .008% of our total debt. If they defaulted tomorrow the Fed could write a check to cover it. No big deal for the US.. ( Only about 35% of all US federal debt is held by foreign investors.) On the other hand if Russia defaulted on any foreign loans even doing so under sanctions, it would crush their credit worthiness. Such a move would bankrupt them as even countries running surpluses like (before Ukraine Invasion) Russia require loans to handle cash flow. So Russia defaulting on US loans would be like stabbing themselves in the chest do do minor injury to us. I think it's kind of a Russian thing to threaten to do extremely stupid things no sane person would think of doing in order to scare the snot out of there opponents. On some brighter notes..... From Time Magazine.. 4 Reasons Putin Is Already Losing in Ukraine As Russia's Ukraine power play reaches boiling point in Crimea, there are clear signs a Russian invasion may be a disaster for its architect, President Vladimir Putin (1) Most Russians with money keep their money offshore. This includes Russia's ruling elite, reportedly includes Putin himself... So all that money could be targeted by sanctions. That won't make Putin a popular fellow back home with his base or Russia's business leaders. This is a composite point with Forbes and Time.. http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2013/10/08/why-russia-is-china-in-reverse/ (2) New internal survey released by the Kremlin's pollster Yesterday... showed 73% of Russians reject Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Back in the beginning of Feb Guess how many Russians favored reacting to the overthrow of the legally elected authorities in Ukraine? 15% !!! This might be one of the least popular moves of Putin's career. (3) Did you check out the Russian Stock Market close Yesterday(Monday). Russia's market was down 10%.. That's $60 billion dollars which just evaporated... And tomorrow is another day!! (4)Even Russia’s closest allies want no part of this. The oil-rich state of Kazakhstan, the most important member of every regional alliance Russia has going in the former Soviet space, put out a damning statement on Monday, marking the first time its leaders have ever turned against Russia on such a major strategic issue: “Kazakhstan expresses deep concern over the developments in Ukraine,” the Foreign Ministry said. “Kazakhstan calls on all sides to stop the use of force in the resolution of this situation.” http://world.time.com/2014/03/03/putin-ukraine-crimea-russia/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted March 4, 2014 Author Share Posted March 4, 2014 So Putin is speaking now. Calling Ukraine an unconstitutional coup and lecturing about Ukrainian law and politics. He says, no troops needed now...but if unrest occurs in the East of course he must do what he can to help the people, since he has a request from the 'legitimate pres' to do so. Now he's talking about the markets and blaming their losses on the US prior to this situation, and saying something about India being affected too. Now he's going on about Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya.... Someone's phone went off and he paused the presser for a moment. https://twitter.com/maxseddon Putin says Russia still preparing for G8 if Sochi despite G7 withdrawal. "If they don't want to come, they don't have to" 6:00 AM https://twitter.com/lauraphylmills Putin on troops in Crimea: "They are not Russian," says they look like "any uniforms in post-Soviet countries." 6:03 AM https://twitter.com/mike_giglio As 12pm deadline hit, Ukrainian soldier in surrounded Crimea airport puts up a Ukrainian flag, just behind a pair of armed Russian troops 5:13 AM Corporal at besieged Ukrainian air base in Crimea: "It doesn't matter if I'm afraid or not. There are only two ways for this to end. 5:15 AM At besieged Crimea air base, 200 soldiers, unarmed, are surrounded by Russian troops with weapons ready as commanders negotiate. so Ukrainian soldiers here have opted for non-violent resistance, likely their only real shot 5:17 AM Young Ukrainian soldier at besieged air base: "[the Russian troops] might come here w families in tourist season. How could they kill us?" 5:21 AM Wife of Ukrainian cmmndr negotiating w Russians at besieged Crimea air base: "if needed I will stand w him to face their automatic weapons. 6:01 AM https://twitter.com/mike_giglio No deal at besieged Crimea air base. Ukrainian commander: "we will insist that they leave." 6:07 AM Ukrainian commander at besieged Crimea air base: "our weapons are in our warehouse. So we will let our superiors deal with that" 6:08 AM Ukrainian commander at besieged Crimea air base says negotiations continue at 2pm when representative of Russia's Black Sea Fleet arrives 6:11 AM LOL some Reuters reporter asked about the Budapest memorandum and Putin seemed caught off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMS Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Putin on troops in Crimea: "They are not Russian," says they look like "any uniforms in post-Soviet countries." 6:03 AM You have to hand it to him.. He's a bold guy.... Goes back to something Merkle said of Putin when they talked last... She told Obama that Putin was in his own reality.. out of touch with our reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.