How In The Hell Did Va Dems Nominate Mcauliffe For Governor?

[twa]

twa - who would you like to see in the WH? Not being snarky, just curious.

somebody competent, don't have a favorite....I'm open to Christi or even Hillary

[nonniey]

somebody competent, don't have a favorite....I'm open to Christi or even Hillary

Competent? Hillary? If the American people only knew what those who actually had to work with the State Department during her tenure know. Although It has gotten worse since her departure.

[skinsmarydu]

or even Hillary

I don't know whether to say "I knew you'd come around" or ask if you bumped your head...

[twa]

I don't know whether to say "I knew you'd come around" or ask if you bumped your head...

 

all depends on the opponent, there is always a lesser evil 

 

I do share nonniey's opinion above, but question how well anyone could manage Obama's foreign policies....should be entertaining hearing explanations/disclaimers if she does run 

[Burgold]

Could make for an interesting bumper sticker

 

Tired of voting for the lesser evil? Vote ___________. Think GREATNESS! 

[Wrong Direction]

A Hillary Clinton + Mark Warner ticket in 2016 would be damn near unstoppable, even if the Obamacare rollout continues to be such a headache.

 

Hillary will be formidable, for sure. It would appear Warner would be a great choice since he's from VA, but dude has flopped in his brief national experience. I'm not sure he'd have any say in who carries VA in the end.

 

On the other hand, for all of the people who talk about Hillary + as such a strong ticket, it would be equally crazy to discount Christie/Rubio. That would be a very formidable ticket because of cross-over political and demographic appeal.

 

I've heard whispers that a lot of D's don't want Hillary. Time will tell. There are certainly whispers that a lot of R's don't want Christie. In any case, there's a lot that can happen between now and 2016, and I really can't see Marco Rubio, Rand Paul or Ted Cruz beating Christie in the primaries, particularly if they're splitting the votes.

 

Abortion

On the Shutdown

On Corporations

Environment

Gun Control

Homeland Security

Social Security

Taxes

 

 

JMS...what's your source for this write-up? I haven't researched it all, but I did see him on election day belittling the idea that the shutdown was a good idea.

 

Just saying...opposition will put out a ton of things and characterize positions much differently than Christie himself ever would.

 

Also, watch this speech and tell me this doesn't have a ton of cross-over appeal. Note the Mayor he's talking about is a Democrat.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YehocFM3hpE

[TheGoodBits]

It would appear Warner would be a great choice since he's from VA, but dude has flopped in his brief national experience. I'm not sure he'd have any say in who carries VA in the end..

Flopped? How so?

And Warner is more popular in VA than Christie in NJ, by a lot. He'd have a huge influence in carrying this state.

[SkinsHokieFan]

Flopped? How so?

And Warner is more popular in VA than Christie in NJ, by a lot. He'd have a huge influence in carrying this state.

 

Christie just won a deep blue state with 60%+ of the vote. 

 

Warner's keynote address at the 2012 DNC went over sunk like a lead zepplin 

[Wrong Direction]

Flopped? How so?

And Warner is more popular in VA than Christie in NJ, by a lot. He'd have a huge influence in carrying this state.

 

What this guy said...

 

Christie just won a deep blue state with 60%+ of the vote. 

 

Warner's keynote address at the 2012 DNC went over sunk like a lead zepplin 

[TheGoodBits]

Christie just won a deep blue state with 60%+ of the vote.

Warner's keynote address at the 2012 DNC went over sunk like a lead zepplin

There wasn't much of a fight put up against Christie- and exit polls indicated he would trail Hillary in a hypothetical matchup in 2016. Warner won his Senate seat with 65% of the vote. That's unprecedented in VA.

Not sure there's a huge concern over one speech. He's been involved heavily in some key Senate bipartisan initiatives like the Gang of Six. Definitely has had a prominate leadership role since he was elected.

[skinsmarydu]

Flopped? How so?

And Warner is more popular in VA than Christie in NJ, by a lot. He'd have a huge influence in carrying this state.

My parents are evangelical Repubs and they love Warner.  Just sayin'.   

[Popeman38]

Mark Warner was a fantastic gov. FANTASTIC. He squandered all of his political capital as a Sen by kowtowing to the Dem line and refusing to be bipartisan, which is what made him a fantastic gov. He is literally a mouthpiece for the Dem party now.

[SkinsHokieFan]

Warner would be a Republican in any blue state in the country (certainly in NJ)

 

Christie went after liberal sacred cows in NJ (in particular the public unions)

 

He'd still be an R in a red state

[88Comrade2000]

Interesting how this thread became about 2016.    What about Terry Mcauliffe for President?

 

 

Here's a thread for all things 2016 and the Race to be Potus #45.

 

http://es.redskins.com/topic/371493-the-race-to-become-potus-45-election-2016/?hl=2016

[TheGoodBits]

Mark Warner was a fantastic gov. FANTASTIC. He squandered all of his political capital as a Sen by kowtowing to the Dem line and refusing to be bipartisan, which is what made him a fantastic gov. He is literally a mouthpiece for the Dem party now.

Warner would be a Republican in any blue state in the country (certainly in NJ)

Christie went after liberal sacred cows in NJ (in particular the public unions)

He'd still be an R in a red state

Those are two VERY different opinions from two right-leaning people. Interesting.

[Wrong Direction]

My criticsm about Warner was not actually policy related. I'm not THAT informed about Warner other than a former boss of mine who I respect is very close to him and thinks very highly of him. He just seemed like he was out of his league when he gave the national speech. I'm not sure he'd instill any confidence as a VP candidate. On one hand, that's fine. He shouldn't hurt Hillary if that's how it works out. On the other hand, VP candidates seem to matter a lot until it comes to that day's vote.

 

All I'm really saying is that he's not some transformational candidate who will really matter. He might move the needle a very little bit in VA, but history suggests people would be primarily voting for Hillary or Christie if that's how it plays out, with Warner really a bit piece.

 

Contrast that to Marco Rubio as a VP. That would have the potential to move a lot of votes.

 

Here's a short anecdote from Ehrlich/Steele when they were running against Kennedy-Townsend. An African American Democrat friend of mine voted for Ehrlich/Steele because "at least they put Steele on the ticket." It was the first sense I had of the pride associated with that vote. I could imagine much the same if Rubio ran. On the other hand, I don't sense (though I could clearly be wrong) the same pride in gender that I do in race. It's there, but I'm not sure how much and I think Hillary has squandered that in some ways because of the whole relationship with Bill.

[Popeman38]

Those are two VERY different opinions from two right-leaning people. Interesting.

I don't think they are different. Mark Warner worked the center very well in VA as a gov. I was VERY hopeful he would remain such as a Sen. And to some extent he has. But whenever you see him speak in regards to national politics, he parrots the Dem talking points.  This disappoints me greatly. I was all in on Warner as a POTUS candidate when he left Richmond. He was a social moderate and a fiscal semi-conservative as gov. That is me to T.

 

This last election in VA was a crapfest. We had Cucc vs McAuliffe. One is moron and one is an idiot. The fact that Cucc got within 2.5% should scream that McAuliffe is a moron. He won with Fairfax County, plain and simple. Loudoun was CLOSE. PW was close. That should tell you all you need to know. Cucc should have lost by 10+%. 

 

Also, I held off commenting on this, but WTF was the gun show loophole advertising using the VT shooter? He bought all of his guns from a gun shop. Closing the loophole would have had no impact on the VT shooting. ****ing pisses me off. At Duke-VT, there was a truck billboard driving around with the VT candlelight vigil promoting closing the gun show loophole. Beer cans and curse words chased it off every time it came around.

[TheGoodBits]

I don't think they are different. Mark Warner worked the center very well in VA as a gov. I was VERY hopeful he would remain such as a Sen. And to some extent he has. But whenever you see him speak in regards to national politics, he parrots the Dem talking points. This disappoints me greatly. I was all in on Warner as a POTUS candidate when he left Richmond. He was a social moderate and a fiscal semi-conservative as gov. That is me to T.

. .

Eh I can understand where you're coming from but at the same time that's how Washington politics works. You have to talk a good game on your side. When it comes to getting down to business and solving a problem, that's when you see bipartisanship. I think Warner has done that.

To the rest of your post about the election, I don't disagree with anything you said. The use of the VT shooter was dramatic but was meant to get the point across. It's disgusting we can't have any meaningful conversations about gun control because of the NRA's influence. I don't support any bans but there needs to be acknowledgement that there is a problem that needs to be solved somehow.

[Predicto]

It's funny how Virginians always assume that everyone wants to put a Virginia guy on a national ticket.   I remember how Tim Kaine was going to be the Democratic VP candidate, and how George Allen was going to be the Republican VP candidate, and how Chuck Robb was going to be the Democratic VP candidate....

[The Evil Genius]

It's funny how Virginians always assume that everyone wants to put a Virginia guy on a national ticket.   I remember how Tim Kaine was going to be the Democratic VP candidate, and how George Allen was going to be the Republican VP candidate, and how Chuck Robb was going to be the Democratic VP candidate....

 

C'mon now Predicto, we are on a Skins board dominated by natives who haven't left the state (like we did).

 

I still think Cuomo or Warren make more sense than Warner does for Hillary.

[Popeman38]

It's funny how Virginians always assume that everyone wants to put a Virginia guy on a national ticket.   I remember how Tim Kaine was going to be the Democratic VP candidate, and how George Allen was going to be the Republican VP candidate, and how Chuck Robb was going to be the Democratic VP candidate....

Well, it is the best state in the country. Duh!

[Tulane Skins Fan]

C'mon now Predicto, we are on a Skins board dominated by natives who haven't left the state (like we did).

 

I still think Cuomo or Warren make more sense than Warner does for Hillary.

 

I think its unwise to pick a lightning rod like either of those two.  See Palin, Sarah.

 

I'm not sure Warner is the guy, but I will throw out two names that will potentially be on the short list: O'Malley and Bruce Braley.  Braley has to win his Senate seat to be a real contender, but those two have the type of appeal you should want in a VP candidate.

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/11/06/how-high-african-american-turnout-gave-terry-mcauliffe-his-win-in-virginia.html

 

 

 

How High Black Turnout Gave Terry McAuliffe His Win in Virginia

 

 

 

One of the big questions of the next few years of politics is whether Democrats can replicate the “Obama model” of minority turnout without the presence of Obama on the ballot. If the Virginia gubernatorial election was a test case, then the early answer is a clear “yes.”

 

After all, the winner in last night’s election—Democratic fundraiser Terry McAuliffe—is a sleazy, corrupt influence peddler who pushed the boundaries on fundraising and enriched himself in the process. He’s the walking embodiment of Washington’s loose relationship with ethics, and an avatar for everything unseemly about the Clinton administration. There’s no reason he should have been a viable candidate for governor in Virginia. But, in a race against the state’s unpopular attorney general, Ken Cuccinelli, McAuliffe had a shot. And he won by a narrow margin of two-and-a-half percentage points, 47.7% to 45.2%. It was a dramatic shift from pre-election polling, which had McAuliffe up by seven points for most of the last week.

 

The explanation for that decline is straightforward. Overall, the electorate is broadly similar to where it was in 2009, when Virginians gave Republican Bob McDonnell a landslide victory of Democrat Creigh Deeds. It has the same proportion of older people to young people (nearly two-thirds of voters were over 45), and the same proportion of women of men. Likewise, the ideological profile of voters is close to where it was in 2009. Then, the electorate was 18 percent liberal, 42 percent moderate, and 40 percent conservative. This year, it was 20 percent of the electorate called itself liberal, 44 percent moderate and 36 percent conservative.

 

What’s more, Cuccinelli maintained the GOP’s traditional advantage with white and married women, winning the former by sixteen point spread of 54 percent to 38 percent, and the latter by a solid margin of 51 percent to 42 percent. This was a real change from the polls, which had the former Democratic Party leader with a huge lead among all women. McAuliffe’s actual advantage was with unmarried women, who he won 67 percent to Cuccinelli’s 25 percent.

Where the change from 2009 was most significant was among black voters. Then, African Americans were 16 percent were of the electorate, a significant drop from the 2008 election.

 

This year, blacks were 20 percent of all voters, which means their turnout was exactly where it was in 2012. Put another way, for the second year in a row, African Americans turned out at a rate above their percentage of the population, and supported the Democrat by a 9-to–1 margin.

This is huge. For McAuliffe, what it meant is that—for almost every black voter who went to the polls—he could count on a vote, giving him crucial support in a tight race. To wit, more than 37 percent of his vote total came from African Americans. It’s not hard to see what the race would have looked like with 2009 numbers; a four percent drop in black turnout would have slashed roughly 80,000 votes from McAuliffe’s total, turning Ken Cuccinelli’s narrow loss into a slim victory.

 

 

[The Evil Genius]

...and what the VA GOP will take from this election is the notion that they need to tighen voting requirements and make it harder for certain demographics (the poor) to vote.

 

Not that they need to stop electing fringe candidates.

[Going Commando]

Flopped? How so?

And Warner is more popular in VA than Christie in NJ, by a lot. He'd have a huge influence in carrying this state.

Yeah Warner is very very popular in VA. He's popular with dyed in the wool republicans.