Homer: Breaking down film of Luck, Griffin III and Tannehill

[themurf]

(courtesy photo)

For the last seven seasons, I’ve been fortunate enough to cover the Washington Redskins from the sidelines.

Even though the losses continue to pile up, I’m still living any NFL fan’s dream by being that close to the action.

During that timeframe, I’ve seen more subpar quarterbacking from the likes of Mark Brunell, Jason Campbell, Donovan McNabb, Rex Grossman and John Beck that anyone should ever be subjected to, which is why I’m firmly on board with the idea of the Redskins aggressively pursuing a franchise quarterback this offseason.

Now, I watch as much college football as any casual fan, but I would never pretend to be an expert. And even though I’ve put together a checklist of what head coach Mike Shanahan looks for in a quarterback, I’m not going to pretend to be qualified enough to definitely say which rookies best fit .

So I turned to a gentleman by the name of Matt Waldman, who runs a website called The Rookie Scouting Portfolio. While there are a million people out there who attempt to break down film of college players, I’ve always been blown away by Matt’s detailed approach.

If you’ve not familiar with Waldman’s work, you owe it to yourself to check out his reports on the pocket presence of Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill,* the field vision of Virginia Tech running back David Wilson and the route running of Baylor receiver Kendall Wright.

*Spoiler alert: The Tannehill stuff is particularly relevant considering the draft needs of a certain local football franchise. Might not be a bad idea to bookmark that one.

Here are a few questions I came up with about the top-tier college quarterbacks and what Waldman had to say about each. Enjoy.

Unless something crazy happens between now and the NFL Draft, the Indianapolis Colts will make Stanford’s Andrew Luck the top pick in the draft. Just how good can this guy be and how does he stack up against other quarterbacks you’ve researched?

Luck can be a franchise quarterback in the NFL. That sounds like a bland answer, but I think there are few quarterbacks that fit that description — maybe 25 percent of NFL teams have one right now. He’s a great student of the game with a good athleticism, good poise under fire and the arm and anticipation to get the job done.

He’s not a great physical talent like Matthew Stafford, but like Matt Ryan, Luck can make most of the prerequisite throws and he has the work ethic to succeed. I consider work ethic a talent. It’s not just about working hard, but working smart.

Michael Jordan was the greatest basketball player in history because he had great physical talent combined with an even greater talent to work. Peyton Manning is an average to slightly below average physical talent at quarterback, but his work ethic talent is second to none. Luck won’t ‘ooh and ahh’ the average fan with his athleticism like Robert Griffin III, but his knowledge of the game and ability to put his offense in advantageous plays is what separates Luck from the rest of this class.

Luck is playing in a pro style offense right now. He has opportunities to make more adjustments at the line of scrimmage than most college quarterbacks. Although this is the case, defenses can still confuse him and rattle him into mistakes. I watched him have some really poor moments versus fire zone blitzes against Oregon this year. So don’t expect Luck to come to the NFL and immediately make the Pro Bowl or lead his team to the playoffs.

However, do expect promising moments where you can see flashes of the hype that’s out there about him. We need to remember that quarterback is the most difficult position in sports. Luck from a conceptual, mechanical standpoint is as good as any quarterback — and actually better — that I’ve studied in seven years.

That being said, he’s not like Cam Newton, who can dominate athletically in the NFL. Athletic dominance in the NFL is a rare ability to have because we’re talking about the best one percent of college athletes now playing professionally. To be the top percent of that top percent is rarefied air.

When you combine that elite athleticism with Newton’s work ethic and the Carolina Panthers finding ways to make the offense transition-friendly for a rookie, you have that amazing statistical rookie season. I don’t see this happening for Luck, although I think his pocket management is among the best three or four quarterbacks I’ve ever watched.

For my money, the second pick in the draft will be Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III. The only question is, which team will trade up to land the Heisman Trophy winner. How much of a drop off is there between Luck and Griffin III and what stands out when you watch film of RGIII?

The Luck-RGIII discussions underscore a great point about quarterbacking in the NFL. There is a prototype that NFL teams value from a quarterback. The traits for that prototype include pocket management skills, a strong arm, mobility, accuracy, and decision-making as a leader, a reader of defenses, a coach on the field, a ball handler and lastly a passer.

Most quarterbacks lack top skills at all of the things I just mentioned. Even the best quarterbacks, who usually ascend to greatness because they are strong in many of these areas and great enough in one of them to compensate for what they lack in another.

I’m prefacing my answer with this explanation because Griffin III and Luck are different styles of quarterback at this stage of their careers because they bring different “special powers” to their games that may or may not compensate for what they lack during their initial seasons as NFL starters.

Griffin III has the rocket arm and elite athleticism. I have heard people mention Newton when prefacing questions about Griffin — and I don’t know if that’s a common thing or just common with the questions I’m getting — but these two quarterbacks are different players. Griffin is more like Michael Vick in terms of his size/athleticism whereas Newton’s athleticism is more like a faster, more powerful Ben Roethlisberger or pre-injury Daunte Culepper (which for my money equates to a young Steve McNair, a terrific quarterback).

Part of the NFL prototype for quarterbacks requires some athleticism in today’s game. Eli Manning isn’t a great athlete, but he’s fast enough to get the corner and make a throw on the move. Yet no one will mistake him for Newton. Now Vick may make these throws on the move and burn a defense with ease if they given him a crease to run up the middle or in the flat, but keep him stuck in the pocket and constrict that pocket with pressure and his decision-making and pocket management aren’t at the prototypical level.

He’s still a quality starter, maybe just at or below franchise level in skill but its his athleticism that brings his game to that level the same way Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or Philip Rivers’ pocket management and hyper-accuracy make up for their deficiencies with their legs.

Where the pocket-friendly quarterbacks tend to be more cautious, they need more help to accomplish the heroic than players like Vick or Griffin. The downside for these athletes like Roethlisberger, McNair, and Steve Young (in their early years) is that they can be too aggressive for their own good. They can abandon good judgment to make a play that they know they can execute physically.

Griffin’s upside is obvious to even the general fan, but he comes with some issues that are legitimate question marks. Pocket management taking a snap and dropping back is one area. I know most people think dropping back and surveying the field is easier than delivering the football.

However if it were, there would be a lot more quarterbacks starting in the NFL that were great shotgun passers in college. That’s not the case. I think Griffin has the smarts to address his shortcomings, but I think he’s going to be an up-and-down performer earlier in his career than what we saw from even Newton or even Andy Dalton.

The Redskins currently hold the sixth pick in the draft and are in desperate need of a franchise quarterback. Knowing the gap between the second best and third-best quarterbacks in this particular draft, how aggressive should Washington’s front office be in trading up to land RGIII?

Click here for the full article.

[S.T.real,lights,out]

Really good post as always Murf.

For some reason i just dont like Tannehill. From the few videos i have watched of him i just dont get the "Wow" factor. Maybe it's b/c he has only played a season + at QB. idk

For the question you asked him about what we should do @ 6. Well I think if we decide against getting RGIII we will have to take Tannehill @ 6 which i really dont want too. I dont think he will make it out of say the top 15 and if we pick someone at 6 and try to trade back in its going to cost us a lot. Prob almost as much as trading up to get RGIII. And i dont really see anyone wanting to trade up to 6.

[Son of Gadsden]

I wanted Tannehill before this.

Now call me hyped.

[Thirtyfive2seven]

argh, lets draft a QB who played WR because he couldn't beat out 2 other players ahead of him at QB but played well when given a chance...

no thanks

---------- Post added February-22nd-2012 at 08:20 AM ----------

argh, lets draft a QB who played WR because he couldn't beat out 2 other players ahead of him at QB but played well when given a chance...

no thanks

[themurf]

Really good post as always Murf.

For some reason i just dont like Tannehill. From the few videos i have watched of him i just dont get the "Wow" factor. Maybe it's b/c he has only played a season + at QB. idk

It's funny, I basically think of Ryan Tannehill as Jason Campbell. He's solid, but unspectacular. I haven't ever been blown away by what I've seen of him either, so it was interesting to get Matt's take.

I wanted Tannehill before this.

Now call me hyped.

If you're on board with Tannehill, then this article is definitely going to make you happy. I'm still on board with RGIII, but I was honestly surprised by how many positive things Matt had to say about Tannehill and I think I'm more comfortable with him as option No. 2 than I was a few days ago.

[RFKFedEx]

I wouldn’t trade up for Robert Griffin III. This is what Pat Kirwan of CBS Sports appropriately calls the “credit card” mentality to managing a draft.

That was my favorite part.

Nice coverage Murf!

[S.T.real,lights,out]

I guess the big question is really do we want to trade up for RGIII or stay @ 6 keep our picks and take Tannehill. We will just have to wait and see. I think if we are very active in FA we will trade up. If we only sign a few guys will are staying @ 6 or trading back.

[LD0506]

Well no matter what, having Tannehill in play for a top end pick certainly makes things more interesting. RGIII is a flashy pick, I really like what I've seen from him but it is encouraging to know that we still have good options other than just him.

Don't you think we run a big risk if we try to trade down and still look to draft him, ie. someone else grabs him and we have squat under center this season?

[The Robert Griffin Experience]

A couple of points (obviously I disagree - I don't think the two are close - I think he's closer to J.P. Losman than he is to Aaron Rodgers)

1: I think the guy is really underselling Griffin's ability as a pure passer, as well as his pocket presence. He needs more reps in the pocket, obviously, but he's looked good at times when he's had to manage the pocket.

2: Tannehill is ahead in mechanics and fundamentals - who wouldn't be after playing in a pro offense? I think RGIII can easily catch up if he works at it, and I think he will.

3: Tannehill has bad decision-making at times, especially under pressure, and his deep ball is average or worse. Overall, I find his accuracy to be pretty inconsistent. You can find tape where he looks really accurate, and tape where he does not.

4: Both have elite intangibles, so you have some hope that both of them can fix their weaknesses. But imo Griffin's problems are easier to fix.

5: This probably scares me more than anything about Tannehill - whenever he gets pressured, he kind of falls apart. Look at how he played against LSU and even Arkansas. And he hasn't gotten pressured much at all - he got sacked 12 times to RGIII's 27, despite throwing 100 more times. And he's been mediocre to bad against the quality teams he's faced.

I just don't think it's close. I'd say RGIII is a 50-75% likelihood of being a franchise QB, while Tannehill is maybe a 10-25% chance. I think Waldeman is focusing on the wrong things - namely the fact that Tannehill is ahead in fundamentals from playing in a pro-style offense, and is drawing a lot of misconceptions from RGIII in the sense that "oh he's athletic he'll make riskier plays".

I thinik Campbell is a very apt comparison for Tannehill (and Foles, but for different reasons) - good enough to make you think he has hope, but have holes in the game that somehow or another, don't get fixed.

[Chump Bailey]

Very happy if we end up with Tannehill as a consolation prize if Cleveland grabs RG3...

[SilkyDiamonds]

Is noone concerned that vs Pass defenses ranked #40 or better in college Tannehill in his 1.5yrs at QB has looked more like a WR at QB than a QB? Its all fine and dandy to put up big #'s against Baylor, Mizzou, Idaho, NW and OkSt. Who didnt? In games vs teams who will have NFL players Tannehill was barely above a 50% passer, right around 220ypg, and a negative td to int.

[Skinsinparadise]

I think Waldeman is focusing on the wrong things - namely the fact that Tannehill is ahead in fundamentals from playing in a pro-style offense, and is drawing a lot of misconceptions from RGIII in the sense that "oh he's athletic he'll make riskier plays".

You'd figure based on his comments that its RG III with problems with throwing too many picks but reality was he was relative very sound when it came to his TD/INT ratio. It was Tannehill with the high number of interceptions, actually if you quantify his games out like an NFL season, he was in Rex's territory for the number of them.

[The Robert Griffin Experience]

It gets worse when you take out the games he played against crap-tier defenses. I keep saying this, but take out the Baylor Robert Griffins, Idaho ,and SMU and he has 19 TDs and 15 INTs.

Take out RGIII's games against scrubs and, uh well, his best games came against teams like Oklahoma and TCU so I guess you're not taking out much are you!

[LetThePointsSoar]

Nice writeup murf, although I'm still leary of RT for the same reason you state here.

I basically think of Ryan Tannehill as Jason Campbell. He's solid, but unspectacular. I haven't ever been blown away by what I've seen of him either, so it was interesting to get Matt's take.

[Pick6]

Like others have said, RT is probably very comparable to Jason Campbell. I never hated Campbell but I didn't think he would win the Redskins any big games. I would never want to draft Campbell at 6, same thing with Tannehill's style of QB.

[Chump Bailey]

Like others have said, RT is probably very comparable to Jason Campbell.

Where's the comparison? I don't see it. What are you guys drawing this from exactly?

I think RT blows JC away in raw athleticism and certainly aptitude.

[Pick6]

Where's the comparison? I don't see it. What are you guys drawing this from exactly?

I think RT blows JC away in raw athleticism and certainly aptitude.

There’s talk about him not having the anticipation down field in coverage, but there aren’t many quarterbacks that consistently do at this stage of their careers.

That was Jason Campbell's biggest weakness.

[SkinsHokieFan]

Tannehill at 6 would be a disaster. When we were 3-2 and I figured we would have a pick in the teens I looked at him, saw some good, saw some bad, but ultimately feel that he is just a middling QB in the NFL.

Jason Campbell is a great comparision.

[FrFan]

"Mayock talks about the strength of Luck and Griffin as well as the top running back and wide receiver."

PFT Live: Mayock doesn’t buy Luck as ‘can’t miss’

[wrecker]

I would definitely not pick RT with the 6th pick just because he is the next best QB in the draft.

If the Shanny's are in love with him and he is what they really want then ok.

If we can trade down and get him 10-15 and add some picks I would be all for it.

[GibbsFactor]

I like Tannehill and people who knock him for paying WR for his first two years aren't paying attention. He was a QB that walked on and was athletic enough to play as a receiver and break records and then switched back after the NFL talent ahead of him was drafted. I mean, what more do you want?

If we could trade down to the mid teens and pull another draft like last year, I'd be all for it. Remember, we have a lot of holes and the more we fill the better we are. It depends on the price to trade up for Griffin and who may take Tannehill in the middle rounds.

Miami, Seattle, Cleveland could all grab him.

[Pick6]

I would definitely not pick RT with the 6th pick just because he is the next best QB in the draft.

If the Shanny's are in love with him and he is what they really want then ok.

If we can trade down and get him 10-15 and add some picks I would be all for it.

I think if the coaching staff really likes RT they need to try to trade with Miami. If Miami signs Flynn they could like one of the top WR, Blackmon/Flyod, to compliment Marshall. Just a thought, but you would have to get in position to pick before Seattle. I could see the Seahawks drafting RT.

[MartinC]

Interesting write ups.

I do like Tannehills physical skills and I would agree he is not that far behind RGIII from a purely physical standpoint - though he is behind - but he is quite a way behind in terms of experience at the position and production/play making ability. However its also fair to say Tannehill is ahead of RGIII in terms of experience in the type of offense we run in Washington.

Someone posted a video in the main RGIII thread of him working out pre draft and there were some shots of him dropping back. I posted some comments in that thread about his footwork doing 3 and 5 step drops still being very much a work in progress. Its interesting this an area the writer picks up as one of the main holes in RGIIIs game right now. Footowork is essential in a rhythm based passing offense and especially in one based on WCO principles. Having consistent footwork is the key to timing and also the fundation for good mechanics and accuracy.

I think RGIII has good pocket awareness and moves well inside the pocket, he is not a one read then run guy, but he still has a lot of work to do on taking a snap under centre and getting back correctly and consistently on time. Its something I think he will put a lot of time in and he will master it but I would not underestimate how much work will be required for it to become totally natural and repeatable under pressure. Its something which might hinder him early in his career I think and which might cause some inconsistency in his play.

I would trade up for RGIII if the price is not silly and I think #6 is too high for Tannehill but if we miss out on RGIII and could trade back - or maybe trade up after using our #6 pick and get back into say the 20's if Tannehill was still there and take him I would be pleased. The problem is I think Tannehill will not last until the 20's and go somehwhere in the teen/s maybe as high as Seattle.

[FrFan]

I like Tannehill and people who knock him for paying WR for his first two years aren't paying attention. He was a QB that walked on and was athletic enough to play as a receiver and break records and then switched back after the NFL talent ahead of him was drafted. I mean, what more do you want?

Same thing as Gisele, throw and catch the ball at the same time .

The Underrated Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill

[Chicken Fried]

This article really seems to underestimate Luck's arm strength and ability to make every throw. He just doesn't overcome these supposed deficiencies with his intelligence. He is a darn good passer.