Odds of getting our franchise QB in the drat

[Hitman21ST]

That was my point in the post. We should stop hyperventilating about Luck and RG3, we can do it without them. I believe defenses win championships.

We need to be able to get to that championship though. A great QB can go a LONG way to getting us there. The offense gets there, the defense brings it home.

[MartinC]

That was my point in the post. We should stop hyperventilating about Luck and RG3, we can do it without them. I believe defenses win championships.

I agree that fixating just on Luck or RGIII is a mistake - there are other options at QB and we will not be cancelling the season if we don't end up with one of them. That said given QB is the glaring need on this team whatever we do to address other needs and we have to come out of this free agency and draft with an answer to that problem. We can't muddle through another year with Rex or another bottom third QB option.

[FrFan]

I agree that fixating just on Luck or RGIII is a mistake - there are other options at QB and we will not be cancelling the season if we don't end up with one of them. That said given QB is the glaring need on this team whatever we do to address other needs and we have to come out of this free agency and draft with an answer to that problem. We can't muddle through another year with Rex or another bottom third QB option.

I'm thinking about us getting Flynn and drafting a promising Qb in the 2nd or 3rd round. Flynn won't cost us any draft pick, he's been tutored by Rodgers. He put up impressive performances vs the Cheatriots and Lions (both playoff teams), I know that doesn't make him a sure bet though. We also need to draft a very good receiver, I wish Blackmon could fall to us like Orakpo did (just dreaming ) . If we can't get Blackmon I would rather select Kirkpatrick or Claiborne because I don't think any other receivers left are worth the 6th pick, and we need a shutdown CB since this league is going the pass happy way. Then, we could get a WR in the 2nd and a Qb in the 3rd, or visa versa depending on the BPA left at these positions. Big guys can be found in the late rounds, same thing for ILB. In FA I would focus on Nicks/Grubbs, Bowe.

[Burgold]

I read the back-and-forth on this and decided to do some research. I went back to the Elway pick and listed off the first two QBs picked in the first round -- assuming there were at least two QBs picked in the first round. (To avoid complications, I avoided supplemental draft picks.) ..

Y'know, overall that's a pretty uninspiring list

Lots o'losers in there. Not saying we shouldn't roll the dice, but yikes.

[FrFan]

Even worse, it could be Alex Smith vs. Joe Flacco.

I think this shows how fragile a good NFL season can be. What more could the Packers or Saints have done and they are going to watch the conference championship games from their couches. At least their windows are wide open.

Last note...I wonder how often two #1 overall QBs have played in the conference championship games like Manning/Smith are about to? And could their paths to this game have been more different?

Omg. The Harbaughs' Bowl

[Forever21]

Y'know, overall that's a pretty uninspiring list

Lots o'losers in there. Not saying we shouldn't roll the dice, but yikes.

There are lots of losers on every list for every position.

The fact of the matter is that the NFL draft produces more losers than starters. That is simply the reality of the numbers.

So we need to not worry about the 2nd QB's taken in previous drafts. Every single draft is its own entity and cannot be compared with previous drafts because nothing about the two drafts are the same except for the system that dictates someone goes first and someone goes last then we restart.

Debating if a player is good enough to be drafted in a certain place. Or what our biggest need is. Those are valid debates. Debating if we should draft the 2nd QB in the draft regardless of who it is or where we are, is not a valid debate because there is no logic or reality to follow.

[S.T.real,lights,out]

I think a major thing when drafting a QB is having patience. Im as high as anyone on RGIII but i can't expect him to come in here and have a season like Cam. I sure hope he does. But you draft your QB and build around that person. Cam had a good year b/c they got him two good TE, he has a really good threat with Smith, and two good RB's. We have a very similiar setup here. We have Cooley (if he comes back, which i hope he does) and Davis, we have a bunch of WR's that i feel can stretch the field, and Helu, Royster and possibly HT will have very good years next year. IMO we have the talent in most positions. Could we use a real #1 WR? Of course a lot of teams could. IMO our biggest drop off in talent when comparing to other teams in the East and around the NFL is QB and its not even close. So if there's a 50/50 chance of landing a guy like RGIII and having him be a stud well im fine with that b/c it means with him taking snaps we have a 50/50 chance of winning a lot of our games.

[Thirtyfive2seven]

I understand and agree we have to get a QB from some where. But also remember that trying and striking out almost always means your ass is fired.

Ok I guess I misunderstood you. I suppose you could get fired if you royally screw up but who said we have to get one QB? I say get someone with the 6th pick if you can't trade up or trade back if you like one who may not warrant the 6th pick. Then with the additional picks draft another QB in the later rounds. You never know - you may get a Gus Ferrotte (sp?) or Tom Brady then you go to camp with 3 guys. Rex, 6th pick, and later draft choice.

[HBnotBlades]

Wyvern, nice research. That's a good list and it definitely shows the drop off after that first pick.

The problem I have with it is that it may be a little misleading. This years draft seems to feature two quarterbacks with #1 overall talent. While a guy like RGIII may be the the #2 rated QB this year, the argument could be made that he would be rated higher than nearly all of the #2 guys on that list, and a lot of the #1 guys when they came out of school.

RGIII heading to the draft in the same year as "the best prospect since Elway" doesn't mean we should view him as a guy not worthy of the top pick.

[Truant]

Wyvern, nice research. That's a good list and it definitely shows the drop off after that first pick.

The problem I have with it is that it may be a little misleading. This years draft seems to feature two quarterbacks with #1 overall talent. While a guy like RGIII may be the the #2 rated QB this year, the argument could be made that he would be rated higher than nearly all of the #2 guys on that list, and a lot of the #1 guys when they came out of school.

RGIII heading to the draft in the same year as "the best prospect since Elway" doesn't mean we should view him as a guy not worthy of the top pick.

Agreed. It's interesting to see who has been taken by the 6th pick in the draft in recent years, but it doesn't actually have a bearing on how our pick will turn out. We have to trust our scouting. In most drafts there are at least two quarterbacks worth their salt. I'm hoping the scouting department (and Shanahan) are good enough to find who will work for us and do what it takes to get one of those players to DC.

Here is an interesting article about QBs busting. Makes some good points and reassures me that whoever we get, they are going to be in an okay position to succeed.

Basically, there are three reasons a quarterback will bust, two of which can be avoided in foresight:

1. System Quarterback

2. Lacks Intangibles

3. Lacks Offensive Line

[Redskindon2]

how about QB's in the 1st round period? Joe Flacco was drafted 18th overall and since he's been in the playoffs the last 4 years and is now going to his second AFC Championship game. I would say he is successful and a franchise QB.. Sam Bradford had a bad year but is still good. How do you not have Matthew Stafford on your list. He threw for over 5000 yards and 41 TD's. And no Eli Manning on the list? He's a superbowl champion and going to the NFC Championship...again... RG3 or Luck...if not than I hope that means we already signed Matt Flynn and wooed Peyton Manning to come...lol

[Jericho]

how about QB's in the 1st round period? Joe Flacco was drafted 18th overall and since he's been in the playoffs the last 4 years and is now going to his second AFC Championship game. I would say he is successful and a franchise QB.. Sam Bradford had a bad year but is still good. How do you not have Matthew Stafford on your list. He threw for over 5000 yards and 41 TD's. And no Eli Manning on the list? He's a superbowl champion and going to the NFC Championship...again... RG3 or Luck...if not than I hope that means we already signed Matt Flynn and wooed Peyton Manning to come...lol

Flacco's always a tough one. In my evaluations I usually count him as one, but even Baltimore is not exactly thrilled with him. He's on the last year of his contract next season and supposedly they are not going to extend him now (though I suppose if they win it all that can change). They want him to play it out before committing to him. That doesn't sound like a franchise QB to me.

Outside the top 11 picks, the only really good QBs from the last 8 or so years are Aaron Rodgers, Flacco, Matt Schaub, and whatever you want to call Josh Freeman. And Rodgers was widely considered a top 10 caliber player that simply fell on draft day.

[Truant]

Outside the top 11 picks, the only really good QBs from the last 8 or so years are Aaron Rodgers, Flacco, Matt Schaub, and whatever you want to call Josh Freeman. And Rodgers was widely considered a top 10 caliber player that simply fell on draft day.

Romo sits to pee? I'm not sure if I'd consider him on the list, but he did have a better QB rating than Stafford this year. I'd say he's in the top ten of QBs right now.

[Pick6]

I think I might be one of the only people upset if we took another team's sloopy seconds, i.e. Matt Flynn, Peyton Manning.

I would much rather the Skins just get a 2nd round QB and have him sit behind Rex for a year. I don't see the point in lets sign a FA QB, because he may be better than Grossman. Flynn probably won't be.

[Jericho]

I'm thinking about us getting Flynn and drafting a promising Qb in the 2nd or 3rd round. Flynn won't cost us any draft pick, he's been tutored by Rodgers. He put up impressive performances vs the Cheatriots and Lions (both playoff teams), I know that doesn't make him a sure bet though. We also need to draft a very good receiver, I wish Blackmon could fall to us like Orakpo did (just dreaming ) . If we can't get Blackmon I would rather select Kirkpatrick or Claiborne because I don't think any other receivers left are worth the 6th pick, and we need a shutdown CB since this league is going the pass happy way. Then, we could get a WR in the 2nd and a Qb in the 3rd, or visa versa depending on the BPA left at these positions. Big guys can be found in the late rounds, same thing for ILB. In FA I would focus on Nicks/Grubbs, Bowe.

Obviously, the concern with your proposed moves is how good the QB turns out. If you sign Flynn and he's no better than mediocre Jason Campbell/Matt Cassell level, then you're committing a lot of money to a middle of the road QB. That's what Buffalo just did with Ryan Fitzpatrick and what somewhat what Arizona did with Kevin Kolb (if Kolb qualifies as mediocre, which he probably does). It will improve the team, but probably cap its ceiling somewhere short of being Super Bowl worthy. Not sure I would bother with a 2nd round QB if Flynn is signed. Not only will that QB not play for sometime (Flynn will get paid to be the starter), but it seems like you are forcing a QB pick just to have another one. The problem is that most drafts have 1 franchise QB in them. Not saying all drafts do, but if you're taking a QB, even in the early second, odds still don't seem all that strong he'll turn out all that good. Might as well use the pick to address other needs (WR/DB/OL) and simply commit to Flynn then waste a pick on a QB.

As for Blackmon, I'd be somewhat shocked if he isn't available at #6. He's not the prospect AJ Green is/was. People are overvaluing him, I think largely in part by how successful Green was. But he's not that super elite prospect. He's more Top 10, then Top 5.

---------- Post added January-17th-2012 at 12:57 PM ----------

Romo sits to pee? I'm not sure if I'd consider him on the list, but he did have a better QB rating than Stafford this year. I'd say he's in the top ten of QBs right now.

Romo sits to pee is good. I wasn't counting him since he technically was not drafted. But on ability he does qualify. And since he could have been drafted, you can lump him in there (and I think he just makes the 8 year cutoff)

[kubstix]

"League sources" tell NFL.com's Steve Wyche the Browns are hoping to land Baylor QB Robert Griffin III in April's draft.

Wyche delivered the info in the middle of a mock draft, but it's still notable as the first semi-confirmation of something that has been speculated for weeks. The Browns would likely have to acquire St. Louis' No. 2 overall pick to ensure landing the 2011 Heisman Trophy winner, but with both the No. 4 and No. 22 selections, they are in excellent position to trade up. The Browns have made it clear Colt McCoy will face competition in 2012, and if it's in the form of Griffin, it's a competition he'd almost certainly lose.

[Jericho]

Wyvern, nice research. That's a good list and it definitely shows the drop off after that first pick.

The problem I have with it is that it may be a little misleading. This years draft seems to feature two quarterbacks with #1 overall talent. While a guy like RGIII may be the the #2 rated QB this year, the argument could be made that he would be rated higher than nearly all of the #2 guys on that list, and a lot of the #1 guys when they came out of school.

RGIII heading to the draft in the same year as "the best prospect since Elway" doesn't mean we should view him as a guy not worthy of the top pick.

I think that's a fair assessment. Like when Carmelo Anthony or Kevin Durant came out and were not the #1 pick. In most drafts, either would have easily been #1 overall. In those years, they had other elite prospects to contend with. Some years there's little, some years there's an overloand. Not to mention, the #3 QB has often been quite good in many years (at least if the #3 was a first rounder)

[FrFan]

Obviously, the concern with your proposed moves is how good the QB turns out. If you sign Flynn and he's no better than mediocre Jason Campbell/Matt Cassell level, then you're committing a lot of money to a middle of the road QB. That's what Buffalo just did with Ryan Fitzpatrick and what somewhat what Arizona did with Kevin Kolb (if Kolb qualifies as mediocre, which he probably does). It will improve the team, but probably cap its ceiling somewhere short of being Super Bowl worthy. Not sure I would bother with a 2nd round QB if Flynn is signed. Not only will that QB not play for sometime (Flynn will get paid to be the starter), but it seems like you are forcing a QB pick just to have another one. The problem is that most drafts have 1 franchise QB in them. Not saying all drafts do, but if you're taking a QB, even in the early second, odds still don't seem all that strong he'll turn out all that good. Might as well use the pick to address other needs (WR/DB/OL) and simply commit to Flynn then waste a pick on a QB.

As for Blackmon, I'd be somewhat shocked if he isn't available at #6. He's not the prospect AJ Green is/was. People are overvaluing him, I think largely in part by how successful Green was. But he's not that super elite prospect. He's more Top 10, then Top 5.

We need 2 QBs, I don't want to see Grossman and Beck anymore, this mess has to stop. About Flynn what makes me think that he is better than JC is his performance vs the Lions and Cheatriots, when you can do that you can't be mediocre overall. I think this guy has some talent, how much ? I don't know. We don't need a great QB, we just need a good reliable QB because I believe defenses win championships. Last but not least, what would be your strategy ?

[GWinSkins83]

We need 2 QBs, I don't want to see Grossman and Beck anymore, this mess has to stop. About Flynn what makes me think that he is better than JC is his performance vs the Lions and Cheatriots, when you can do that you can't be mediocre overall. I think this guy has some talent, how much ? I don't know. We don't need a great QB, we just need a good reliable QB because I believe defenses win championships. Last but not least, what would be your strategy ?

We don't need to give him 55 million dollars thats what Fitzpatrick got. You were probably one of those people earlier this year talking about let's get him. Now look at him. Take away Jackson and he looked plain. Take away Finley, Nelson, Driver, Cobb, and Grant and most likely Flynn looks plain. Sorry but we need to Hope that Browns get him. Because he will not be good here.

[Wyvern]

Wyvern, nice research. That's a good list and it definitely shows the drop off after that first pick.

The problem I have with it is that it may be a little misleading. This years draft seems to feature two quarterbacks with #1 overall talent. While a guy like RGIII may be the the #2 rated QB this year, the argument could be made that he would be rated higher than nearly all of the #2 guys on that list, and a lot of the #1 guys when they came out of school.

RGIII heading to the draft in the same year as "the best prospect since Elway" doesn't mean we should view him as a guy not worthy of the top pick.

Thanks. The main reason I put the list together was to support Destino's contention about the "2nd overall QB picked."not turning out so well. One really can't draw conclusions -- anymore than the old adage about Heisman trophy QBs not doing so well (Carson Palmer and Cam Newton would argue differently -- but don't look too long, or you'll see the list also contains such stalwarts as Tim Tebow, Danny Weurfel, and Andre Ware)

I would point out that everytime I read someone's post or media article claiming about two 'can't miss QBs' in the draft -- I start to recal similar comments made aboout Peyton Manning vs. Ryan Leaf, and/or Drew Bledsoe vs. Rick Mirer. (Even a little bit about David Carr vs. Joey Harrington conversations.) At the time many regarded BOTH candidates .....as possible #1 overall picks.

Bottom Line: Some make it, and some miss. And some who made it big, wound up sliding down..

.....so maybe Luck vs. Griffin III turns out to be the year in which both #1 and #2 both pan out and become elite QBs. ....Or maybe not. Fate is mysterious that way.

My bigger question is --assuming Luck goes to the Colts -- how much are you comfortable seeing the Skins give up to 'place their bet' on R. Griffin III? When I start hearing about folks wanting the Skins to offer up the #6 pick in the 1st, 2nd, and 4th rounds of their 2012 draft and the 1st round pick (plus a 2nd round pick?) in the 2013 draft-- all to draft an untested rookie -- I start to wonder if a proven NFL quality QB (Cutler?, etc.),would cost the Skins that much.

Ido believe we can get get our franchise QB in this offseason -- maybe with the 2nd pick in the draft, maybe with the 6th pick, maybe with a later pick, ...or maybe not via the draft at all! Whatever we do, I just hope the Skins don't hobble their rebuilding program too badly, in search of their new 'franchise' QB.candidate..

[Redskins4ever]

It looks as if the Browns are going to get RG3. The only way the Redskins are going to draft Griffin III is:

I. If the Browns pass on RG3 and take Trent Richardson as has been projected.

II. If the Redskins trade this year's 1st and 2nd rounder and next year's first and maybe a 1st in 2014.

#2 is a bit expensive, but how else will they get RG3? If only Barkley would have declared.....

[DogofWar1]

It looks as if the Browns are going to get RG3. The only way the Redskins are going to draft Griffin III is:

I. If the Browns pass on RG3 and take Trent Richardson as has been projected.

II. If the Redskins trade this year's 1st and 2nd rounder and next year's first and maybe a 1st in 2014.

#2 is a bit expensive, but how else will they get RG3? If only Barkley would have declared.....

I doubt it would cost three 1sts and a 2nd to move to 2. That would be priced way higher than the market value.

[GWinSkins83]

Like I said I want Rg3 heck any QB that can be Elite in the NFL. But if Browns want him and offer their 2 first round picks they are getting him. Which is when I would do what they did last year. And tradedown to Lions pick and get their 1st and 2nd this year and 1st next. Draft Russell Wilson in the 4th and continue building the team. Next we will have 2 1st at that time if we want a certain QB that we will have to use those picks than ok. But there will be 5 Qbs that are seniors Barkley, Geno Smith, Landry Jones, Ej Manuel, and Tyler Wilson. Those five all are better than Tannehill or Foles or Cousins. Just build the Oline, secondary, and WR corp. Next year get the real future QB. Easy. This year we would have 4 picks in the top 64. Next year we would 3 in the top 64. That's seven real good young players that this FO can hit on.

[Redskins4ever]

Like I said I want Rg3 heck any QB that can be Elite in the NFL. But if Browns want him and offer their 2 first round picks they are getting him. Which is when I would do what they did last year. And tradedown to Lions pick and get their 1st and 2nd this year and 1st next. Draft Russell Wilson in the 4th and continue building the team. Next we will have 2 1st at that time if we want a certain QB that we will have to use those picks than ok. But there will be 5 Qbs that are seniors Barkley, Geno Smith, Landry Jones, Ej Manuel, and Tyler Wilson. Those five all are better than Tannehill or Foles or Cousins. Just build the Oline, secondary, and WR corp. Next year get the real future QB. Easy. This year we would have 4 picks in the top 64. Next year we would 3 in the top 64. That's seven real good young players that this FO can hit on.

Nothing is guaranteed for next year. The Redskins front office has to make something happen now. There's no free agent QB worth signing and don't say Matt Flynn because he's still unproven. He had only two good games but big deal. He hasn't been a starter. He's a backup. Next year? No! Next year we will be heading into year 4 of Mike Shanahan. Shanahan needs to do something now. Even if he has to give the Rams or the Vikings future 1st round picks to land RG3 or to the Colts to get Luck, he and Bruce Allen need to pull that trigger.

[CapsSkins]

I see Cleveland pursuing RG3 as only upping the price, not closing off the opportunity. We are desperate for a quarterback; Cleveland is not. They have more ammo, but we have more motivation. I don't see them willing to offer a package that's more attractive than the max package we would be willing to put together.