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Odds of getting our franchise QB in the drat


Tomel

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I don't understand these types of posts.

What do you suggest we do then? Keep ignoring QB forever? Hope that if we keep drafting late round QB's that we'll eventually get a miracle? Pick up someone else's extra QB?

How often have those worked out for us?

Why don't we try something new, and draft a QB at the top of the draft?

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The skins had no YAC TD's till the 16th Game: Helu

Give whatever it takes to score in 2012!

While I agree with the 99.9% that we need a drastic upgrade at QB I would say this stat supports the idea that we need playmakers more than anything. This shows that guys aren't making defenders miss, they aren't breaking tackles, and they aren't creating sufficient seperation to catch and run. Our QB's have had to earn their touchdowns by hitting guys in the endzone. That isn't easy to do. It becomes a lot easier to get gaudy TD numbers when you have guys that can make a scoring play out of nothing.

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While I agree with the 99.9% that we need a drastic upgrade at QB I would say this stat supports the idea that we need playmakers more than anything. This shows that guys aren't making defenders miss, they aren't breaking tackles, and they aren't creating sufficient seperation to catch and run. Our QB's have had to earn their touchdowns by hitting guys in the endzone. That isn't easy to do. It becomes a lot easier to get gaudy TD numbers when you have guys that can make a scoring play out of nothing.

Agreed this team needs playmakers. But it's not like they only come from the first round. There are a ton of very good WRs that were drafted in the later rounds

Obviously drafting a QB high is a risk. But it's a risk they have to take. And it's equally obvious that they need to surround this guy with better playmakers. But this draft pick is not for 2012 and 2013. It's to get that guy in place for the next 12 years.

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I don't understand these types of posts.

What do you suggest we do then? Keep ignoring QB forever? Hope that if we keep drafting late round QB's that we'll eventually get a miracle? Pick up someone else's extra QB?

How often have those worked out for us?

Why don't we try something new, and draft a QB at the top of the draft?

I do believe that will be the goal for this draft. But unfortunately we are not going to have the firepower to move up to get one of the top 2 QB's. That means you take the BPA and pick a QB late again. Reaching for a QB at #6 is far worse than trading up to get one of the top 2 IMO.

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While I agree with the 99.9% that we need a drastic upgrade at QB I would say this stat supports the idea that we need playmakers more than anything. This shows that guys aren't making defenders miss, they aren't breaking tackles, and they aren't creating sufficient seperation to catch and run. Our QB's have had to earn their touchdowns by hitting guys in the endzone. That isn't easy to do. It becomes a lot easier to get gaudy TD numbers when you have guys that can make a scoring play out of nothing.

Some people fail to realise that the QB makes all the difference in YAC as well. Just looking back at the last game alone I can tell you that there were 3 opportunities that our WR had beaten their man is wide open but Rex couldn't get it there. There are very good QB that will throw it to a well covered man over the back shoulder and the WR will catch it. Weather he has "Seperation" or not. Elite QB make these things happen. I can not tell you how many times we threw it to Fred Davis WIDE OPEN only to have him wait for that ball forever to get to him and be tackled. Those are YAC's that a QB gets if he puts it in stride. A elite QB makes a terrible a team with a lot of 'holes" on Defense (Patriots, arguably Greenbay) and average talent Wes Walker type, that much better. Do you think S. Moss would be in better position if he was in Wes' shoes. A QB Makes ALL the difference.

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Agreed this team needs playmakers. But it's not like they only come from the first round. There are a ton of very good WRs that were drafted in the later rounds

Obviously drafting a QB high is a risk. But it's a risk they have to take. And it's equally obvious that they need to surround this guy with better playmakers. But this draft pick is not for 2012 and 2013. It's to get that guy in place for the next 12 years.

Completely agree. It looks like we got one with Hankerson. QB comes first, but that alone isn't the answer to the big play. Our skill positions need to get better as well whether than is developing players we currently have or adding them through FA/draft.

---------- Post added January-10th-2012 at 12:53 PM ----------

Some people fail to realise that the QB makes all the difference I YAC as well. Just looking back at the last game alone I can tell you that there were 3 opportunities that our WR had beaten their man and wide open but Rex couldn't get it there. There are very good QB that will throw it to a well covered man over the back shoulder and the WR will catch it. Weather he has "Seperation" or not elite QB make these things happen. I can not tell you how many times we threw it to Fred Davis WIDE OPEN only to have him wait for that ball for ever to get to him and be tackled. Those are YAC's that a QB gets if he puts it in stride. A elite QB makes a terrible a team with a lot of 'holes" on Defense (Patriots, arguably Greenbay) and average talent Wes Walker type, that much better. Do you think S. Moss would be in better position if he was in Wes' shoes. A QB Makes ALL the difference.

A QB makes a huge difference. Hitting a guy in stride can be the difference between a long touchdown and just an average gain. My point was that it isn't purely on the QB to score on passes that aren't thrown into the endzone. It also comes down to the reciever gaining enough seperation that he can catch it and keep running without being immediately tackled. It comes down to runningbacks making a defender miss in the open field. It comes down to ball carriers not going down on first contact and it comes down to players understanding angles and patience to allow blocks to develop.

QB is a huge factor and will create big play opportunities. Skill positions that can take advantage of these opportunities are a big factor as well. I'm not even remotely saying we need to address skill position over QB I'm just saying that we need both to become a big play offense.

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Man, I'm so sick of these posts.

What do Jamarcus Russell and Andrew Luck have in common? Do they have similar skill sets? Did they have similar experience or production in college? Are their body types the same? Do they come from similar backgrounds, have similar education? Do they have the same strengths or weaknesses as QBs? Are their work ethics similar? Did they play in the same type of offense? Will they be drafted by the same coach, team or system in the NFL? Hell, did they even play in the same conference in college?

Because I'm pretty positive the answer to all those questions is 'no'. And so, it seems to me, claiming that one's failure at the pro level means the other is x percentage less likely to succeed is superstition, at absolute best.

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Some people fail to realise that the QB makes all the difference in YAC as well. Just looking back at the last game alone I can tell you that there were 3 opportunities that our WR had beaten their man is wide open but Rex couldn't get it there. There are very good QB that will throw it to a well covered man over the back shoulder and the WR will catch it. Weather he has "Seperation" or not. Elite QB make these things happen. I can not tell you how many times we threw it to Fred Davis WIDE OPEN only to have him wait for that ball forever to get to him and be tackled. Those are YAC's that a QB gets if he puts it in stride. A elite QB makes a terrible a team with a lot of 'holes" on Defense (Patriots, arguably Greenbay) and average talent Wes Walker type, that much better. Do you think S. Moss would be in better position if he was in Wes' shoes. A QB Makes ALL the difference.

Not sure which I like better, this post or the pic in your signature. Well said.

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-I would be willing to give up our 1st next year, but not much more than that to move up and get Luck.

-I would not give up picks to move up and get RG3. I am not sold on him and see him as a big potential bust. He is too much of a gamble and I do not want us to give up our draft for a potential bust, for we could end up with a bust, and no picks setting this franchise back again. I would only take him if he falls to us at the number 6 spot.

-Seeing that both of these situations will probably not happen, I would be fine taking a chance on Flynn. Bring in Flynn!!

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-I would be willing to give up our 1st next year, but not much more than that to move up and get Luck.

-I would not give up picks to move up and get RG3. I am not sold on him and see him as a big potential bust. He is too much of a gamble and I do not want us to give up our draft for a potential bust, for we could end up with a bust, and no picks setting this franchise back again. I would only take him if he falls to us at the number 6 spot.

-Seeing that both of these situations will probably not happen, I would be fine taking a chance on Flynn. Bring in Flynn!!

So what are you reasons for think RG3 will be a bust? I think Flynn has way more downside at this point. Look at his numbers and the fact that he was drafted to be a backup. Now you want him to start here. He has had one good game and is a turnover machine. RG3 has a much higher reward. You have to investment, but you have a better chance of getting more out of him. Flynn will be a little less worse than Grossman. Maybe.

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While I agree with the 99.9% that we need a drastic upgrade at QB I would say this stat supports the idea that we need playmakers more than anything. This shows that guys aren't making defenders miss, they aren't breaking tackles, and they aren't creating sufficient seperation to catch and run. Our QB's have had to earn their touchdowns by hitting guys in the endzone. That isn't easy to do. It becomes a lot easier to get gaudy TD numbers when you have guys that can make a scoring play out of nothing.

In our case we need both, but in general, I think the QB makes the receivers more than the other way around. If you get the ball out quicker, more accurately, have the arm strength to make all the throws, and can escape pressure to buy more time, you're gonna be able to make more plays. In the last game, there were a couple of occasions of WRs behind the defense and Rex mustered up all his might to hang the ball up just enough to let the DB get back into the play.

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Forget free agency. How many teams in the NFL make continuous playoff runs with free agent quarterbacks? None! You have to draft your QB. Look at the teams who make the playoffs year in and year out, or possibly make the playoffs at least every other year, and you will clearly see that those QBs are former first round draft choices.

Ben Rothesburger, Joe Flacco, Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, Drew Brees(2nd round pick in 2001 but would have been a 1st round pick had the NFL had 32 teams back then), Matt Ryan, etc.

So, the logic and rationale is to trade up to take RG3.

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I think it all boils down to what Cleveland / St Louis want. If the Browns are going to go after RG3 with everything they have got than it is a lock for them to land him. . By trading to number 4 St. Louis still has a very legitimate chance to snag who is probably their primary target in Blackmon. If they traded with us chances are he might be off the board. So be trading with Cleveland they will still most likely have their targeted player and grab another 1st round pick. To me this is a no brainier.

I hate to admit it but Cleveland has way more ammo then us and St Louis will most likely grab their targeted player anyway by trading with Cleveland. This all depends on how bad the Browns want RG3. If they want him he is theirs and no other way around it.

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Forget free agency. How many teams in the NFL make continuous playoff runs with free agent quarterbacks? None! You have to draft your QB. Look at the teams who make the playoffs year in and year out, or possibly make the playoffs at least every other year, and you will clearly see that those QBs are former first round draft choices.

Ben Rothesburger, Joe Flacco, Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, Drew Brees(2nd round pick in 2001 but would have been a 1st round pick had the NFL had 32 teams back then), Matt Ryan, etc.

So, the logic and rationale is to trade up to take RG3.

You DO realize Drew Brees was a FA qb.

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1 out of 6 teams.

All I ask is get simple facts right. It does not take alot of research to know Brees was a fa. As for the rest I would argue Flaco is not the reason Baltimore makes the playoffs every year. I would also say Until this year Eli was helped tremendously by the front 7 on def. and everyone knows the Steelers win games regardless of who is at qb with that def.

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Odds of getting our franchise QB from the draft:

If it's Luck: 90%

If it's RGIII: 80%

Both these guys have the physical skills there, and any deficiencies can be filled in quickly, since they're less skill based and more mental. Luck has less issues than RGIII, but not by much.

If it's Tannehill, Foles, Weedon, or Cousins: 50% or less

Tannehill has a lot of problems that could lead to interceptions galore at the next level. He's still a solid guy, but he needs time.

Foles, I have heard, does not fit our system, but who knows.

Weedon maybe, but depending on how you define franchise QB, his most likely short tenure in the NFL might not match it. And that's assuming he pans out.

Cousins: Haven't watched this guy enough, but scores don't put him as an elite talent.

And if you consider us unlucky, drop the %s by 10-20%, so 70, 60, and 30% for those guys.

As for the list OP provided, it's like any set of statistics, in that it can be manipulated.

How many QBs chosen after the 1st round in the past ten years are still in the league and starting? Far fewer than guys chosen in the top 10.

The key, at the end of the day, is skill level and capability. A lot of QBs are chosen based on potential, and if the potential doesn't pan out, that's it. It's pretty rare for a QB that's truly all there to hit the draft. Luck is one of those guys. I'd say RGIII is 90% there.

I think your odds on Griffin are high, probably more like 60%. And your odds on Tannehill, Foles, Weedon, or Cousins should be way, way lower. Like 5-10%.

Also I note the original post conveniently stopped at 10, which just cuts off Ben Roethlisberger and Jay Cutler at 11 overall in different years. There's no real difference between picks 10 and 11, so it's mainly an arbitrary cut-off. That makes the draft a QB argument even stronger.

---------- Post added January-12th-2012 at 02:41 PM ----------

You DO realize Drew Brees was a FA qb.

He was a free agent. But I'd think you'd have to also admit he was an extreme anamoly. How often do team have two franchise guys (Brees and Rivers) that are both relatively young? And how often do they let one guy walk away for free and not trade one and get something in return? San Diego screwed the pooch on that one. Hell, New England got a 2nd for Matt Cassel and Philly snookered at least a second for AJ Feeley, Donovan McNabb, and Kevin Kolb. That fact that Brees was ever a free agency was a perfect storm of circumstances and bad decisions.

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