Tomel Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Should we trade away a couple of future first round picks and a boat load of money to make a play for Andrew Luck or RGIII? Obviously, we would only be willing to make this commitment if we felt strongly that the result would be that we'd get the franchise quarterback we've been looking for for the past 20 years. What are the odds that Luck or RGIII will turn out to be a long-term top tier QB in the NFL? To help make that determination, listed below are all QBs chosen within the top 10 picks since the year 2000. Of the 18 QBs chosen as top 10 picks, how many do you consider have long-term superstar potential that we would be happy to have chosen as the Skins franchise QB? My picks would be Vick (with a big ?), Palmer, Manning, Ryan and possibly Newton. That's 5 out of 18 or a 28% chance of being successful. Are those good enough odds to take the chance? Or should we maintain our current draft position and go free agency for our QB or,alternatively, just draft the best QB available when our pick comes up? 2000-None 2001-Micahel Vick (#1) 2002-David Carr (#1), Joey Harrington (#3) 2003-Carson Palmer (#1), Byron Leftwich (#7) 2004-Eli Manning (#1), Philip Rivers (#4) 2005-Alex Smith (#1) 2006-Vince Young (#3), Matt Leinart (#10) 2007-JeMarcus Russell (#1) 2008-Matt Ryan (#3) 2009-Matthew Stafford (#1), Mark Sanchez (#5) 2010-Sam Bradford (#1) 2011-Cam Newton (#1), Jake Locker (#8), Blaine Gilbert (#10) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinz4Life12 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 based on that list we have about a 50-50 shot of hitting on RGIII as a stud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dukes and Skins Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Just curious how do you not include Matt Stafford in that group of Franchise QB's as well as Bradford? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDawg Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 2000-None 2001-Micahel Vick (#1) 2002-David Carr (#1), Joey Harrington (#3) 2003-Carson Palmer (#1), Byron Leftwich (#7) 2004-Eli Manning (#1), Philip Rivers (#4) 2005-Alex Smith (#1) 2006-Vince Young (#3), Matt Leinart (#10) 2007-JeMarcus Russell (#1) 2008-Matt Ryan (#3) 2009-Matthew Stafford (#1), Mark Sanchez (#5) 2010-Sam Bradford (#1) 2011-Cam Newton (#1), Jake Locker (#8), Blaine Gilbert (#10) Vick, Palmer, Leftwich was good for a long time before being cast aside in Jacksonville, Eli, Rivers, Alex Smith is now a mistake free game manager that is a solid option, Ryan, Stafford, Bradford, Newton, and perhaps even Locker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G.A.C.O.L.B. Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 How the hell are you counting Matt Ryan but not Phillip Rivers? EDIT: Or Stafford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGreek1973 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 don't know about you guys but I think Matthew Stafford and Sam Bradford will be great in this league Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S.T.real,lights,out Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Well if we wanna play that game i will tell you to look up all the top 10 picks over the last 10 years and find out how many of them were busts. Not every LT, WR, DB or any other position taken in the top 10 works out. Its a gamble. ++ 11/18 are starters right now. 1 will be the starter in within a year (locker) 3 of them are very good backups. Which i think Young might get a chance to start next year if he decides to leave Philly, Really only Harrington and Russell were MAJOR busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Califan007 The Constipated Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 My picks would be Vick (with a big ?), Palmer, Manning, Ryan and possibly Newton. That's 5 out of 18 or a 28% chance of being successful. Are those good enough odds to take the chance? Or should we maintain our current draft position and go free agency for our QB or,alternatively, just draft the best QB available when our pick comes up? Really? Only those five? lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rypien1191 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Seriously? Another one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G.A.C.O.L.B. Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 don't know about you guys but I think Matthew Stafford and Sam Bradford will be great in this league Yeah and Bradford. I take Rivers, Stafford and Bradford over Ryan. Easily. I think Ryan is a dog. Just completely overrated. And the ultimate choker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justice98 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Blaine Gilbert is an even worse QB than Blaine Gabbert. But seriously, I'm concerned with our odds of just getting a QB that's not a total stiff at this point. I don't need a future HOFer, just a guy I can count on to be decent every week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USS Redskins Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Any #1 pick is a gamble.... but the QB position is under more scrutiny. Now with the Rookie pay scale in place if a high pick busts, its not the cap crippling disaster it used to be. But the QB is the leader of the team and the franchise. If the Skins continue to miss out, draft badly and do without a true NFL caliber QB, then they will continue on in their regular, doormat fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justice98 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Blaine Gilbert is an even worse QB than Blaine Gabbert. But seriously, I'm concerned with our odds of just getting a QB that's not a total stiff at this point. I don't need a future HOFer, just a guy I can count on to be decent every week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scruffylookin Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'd only throw picks away to get Luck. Since that likely won't happen, I'd take a receiver at 6 and then attempt to trade back into the first round to take a QB like Tannehill. If we could snare Blackmon and Tannehill, I'd be pretty happy. This team needs not only a long term solution at QB, but playmakers on offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pick6 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 If the Skins trade up to get RG3 it could be to the #2 or #3 slot and that wouldn't included a ton of picks. Maybe a 1st and 2nd this year and 1st next year. I don't see that being a big deal if we land a franchise QB. We don't want another year of another teams sloppy seconds. Remember Flynn is 9td/5int in regular season action. Not great numbers and he was drafted in the 7th round to be a backup. He is not a franchise QB, because he had one great game against a weak Lion's secondary. Also, with the new CBA money for rookies is not really an issue. People need to get over that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justice98 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'd only throw picks away to get Luck.Since that likely won't happen, I'd take a receiver at 6 and then attempt to trade back into the first round to take a QB like Tannehill. If we could snare Blackmon and Tannehill, I'd be pretty happy. This team needs not only a long term solution at QB, but playmakers on offense. Except the problem with Blackmon is the only way to get him is to trade up, so you're basically in the same boat of having to trade up to ensure you get your guy. ---------- Post added January-10th-2012 at 10:23 AM ---------- If the Skins trade up to get RG3 it could be to the #2 or #3 slot and that wouldn't included a ton of picks. Maybe a 1st and 2nd this year and 1st next year. I don't see that being a big deal if we land a franchise QB. We don't want another year of another teams sloppy seconds. Remember Flynn is 9td/5int in regular season action. Not great numbers and he was drafted in the 7th round to be a backup. He is not a franchise QB, because he had one great game against a weak Lion's secondary.Also, with the new CBA money for rookies is not really an issue. People need to get over that one. I don't think his draft position 4 years ago is all that relevant. Guys get better, guys are underestimated and under evaluated. You draft a guy and find out he's better than you thought he was, it happens on a regular basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thiebear Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The skins had no YAC TD's till the 16th Game: Helu Give whatever it takes to score in 2012! Give 5% ownership, Give a quarter of the parking to build a house for him, Give the naming rights to the Stadium. Make Luck DEMAND to be traded to Washington like the Eli/Rivers move we never really had a realistic shot at in the first post. 20 interceptions .. knowing it could have been 32 doesn't portray Hope/Change! as stated before: if we traded every single pick away would it makes us a 5-11 team? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pick6 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I don't think his draft position 4 years ago is all that relevant. Guys get better, guys are underestimated and under evaluated. You draft a guy and find out he's better than you thought he was, it happens on a regular basis. Fair enough, but I need a better reason than that to say lets go after him instead of making the push for RG3. The only reason I have heard from people is Flynn is better than Grossman, but most times Flynn has been put in a game he just throws a pick or fumbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Sinister Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Eleventy-billion to one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justice98 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Fair enough, but I need a better reason than that to say lets go after him instead of making the push for RG3. The only reason I have heard from people is Flynn is better than Grossman, but most times Flynn has been put in a game he just throws a pick or fumbles. I can appreciate that, but if Shanahan evaluates Flynn from a trained eye, breaks down the coaches tape, talks shop and compares notes with Mike McCarthy, and likes what he sees, would that be enough reason? Are we're trusting Shanahan to do the right thing with this decision or aren't we? For the record, I'm dubious about his QB evaluating skills either way, but we'll see what happens. ---------- Post added January-10th-2012 at 10:37 AM ---------- Eleventy-billion to one... So you're saying there's a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrypticVillain Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 How the hell are you counting Matt Ryan but not Phillip Rivers?EDIT: Or Stafford. Yeah he lost all credibility from me when he didn't put Rivers on that list. :doh: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Sinister Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I can appreciate that, but if Shanahan evaluates Flynn from a trained eye, breaks down the coaches tape, talks shop and compares notes with Mike McCarthy, and likes what he sees, would that be enough reason? Are we're trusting Shanahan to do the right thing with this decision or aren't we? For the record, I'm dubious about his QB evaluating skills either way, but we'll see what happens.---------- Post added January-10th-2012 at 10:37 AM ---------- So you're saying there's a chance. In the same sense that there is a chance that at any moment I could die inside my house as a result of a direct hit from a meteorite. Thst's what it feels like anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fancrazyskin Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 This has been discussed over and over again, it is all just hypothetical of what truly is going to happen when draft time comes around. If this administration wants a top tier quarterback then it will simply pull the trigger and do what needs to be done to get their guy. But and this is a big but what if the Browns or Miami throw either the Colts or St. Louis there entire draft to get what they want. Look stranger things have happened and it is not out of the question what a GM is willing to do. I want a stud at the QB position more then the next guy but sometimes the stars just don't align up for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Water Boy Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 And if it would have included the 11th overall pick I would have added Big Ben and J. Cutler to my list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogofWar1 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Odds of getting our franchise QB from the draft: If it's Luck: 90% If it's RGIII: 80% Both these guys have the physical skills there, and any deficiencies can be filled in quickly, since they're less skill based and more mental. Luck has less issues than RGIII, but not by much. If it's Tannehill, Foles, Weedon, or Cousins: 50% or less Tannehill has a lot of problems that could lead to interceptions galore at the next level. He's still a solid guy, but he needs time. Foles, I have heard, does not fit our system, but who knows. Weedon maybe, but depending on how you define franchise QB, his most likely short tenure in the NFL might not match it. And that's assuming he pans out. Cousins: Haven't watched this guy enough, but scores don't put him as an elite talent. And if you consider us unlucky, drop the %s by 10-20%, so 70, 60, and 30% for those guys. As for the list OP provided, it's like any set of statistics, in that it can be manipulated. How many QBs chosen after the 1st round in the past ten years are still in the league and starting? Far fewer than guys chosen in the top 10. The key, at the end of the day, is skill level and capability. A lot of QBs are chosen based on potential, and if the potential doesn't pan out, that's it. It's pretty rare for a QB that's truly all there to hit the draft. Luck is one of those guys. I'd say RGIII is 90% there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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