Odds of getting our franchise QB in the drat

[Gregpeck99]

We NEED a QB to lead this team more than we need anything else. The rest will fall into place.

Easily said ... but picking the right one is a challenge.

Trading up and mortgaging the farm is too risky.

Employ intelligent hedging techniques until you strike gold!

How about Brock Oisweiler anyone?

[cphil006]

A lot will change with individual workouts and the combine when everyone's throwing motion and arm strength/accuracy will be scrutinized with an NFL ball

[HBnotBlades]

I think its not a questiosn of waiting until next year ... but of selecting a QB in the upcoming Draft without sacrificng your Draft power disproportionally. The QB pools this year and next are very deep. Dip your toes in this year's pool by selecting QB's that "come to you" and see what happens. Pick a Weeden or a Cousins in the 2nd round and let them play ... they may surprise to the upside. In addition, pick Pick a Keenum or a Mooore in the later rounds as insurance. If the fan hits the sheed ... you can go back into the pool next year and go for the Barkley type!

The problem with just letting QBs fall to you and taking a guy with potential in the second round is that they very rarely pan out. Once you get out of that range of elite potential (usually the top 2, maybe 3 QBs drafted) you run into an seemingly endless list of guys like Chad Henne, Brian Brohm, Jimmy Clausen, John Beck, Drew Stanton, Kellen Clemens, Tavaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst, Andrew Walter, Charlie Frye, Brodie Croyle, Trent Edwards, Kevin O'Connell, Chris Simms etc.

I don't like any of the QBs out of the top 2 this year. They all look like guys listed above, not elite talents but with some potential coming out of school.

Trying to find your quarterback after the first round is a lot like trying to save for the future by playing the lottery. Sure, you've seen a couple examples of success on the TV so that could happen to you right? Right? Well, what you don't get to see is all the failures that happened using the same strategy. Every year there seems to be 4-5 guys outside of the elite prospects that fans talk about as potential 2nd or 3rd round solutions at the QB position and we tend to forget about them after the draft. When you look back at those second tier guys years after the fact, they don't look so good.

[HeluCopter29]

Odds of us getting our franchise QB with this years first round pick: Low

Odds of us getting our franchise QB some other method: Even less

I'm all for not settling but the guy is going to be our guy and he's going to come out of the draft.

---------- Post added January-16th-2012 at 01:17 PM ----------

The problem with just letting QBs fall to you and taking a guy with potential in the second round is that they very rarely pan out. Once you get out of that range of elite potential (usually the top 2, maybe 3 QBs drafted) you run into an seemingly endless list of guys like Chad Henne, Brian Brohm, Jimmy Clausen, John Beck, Drew Stanton, Kellen Clemens, Tavaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst, Andrew Walter, Charlie Frye, Brodie Croyle, Trent Edwards, Kevin O'Connell, Chris Simms etc.

I don't like any of the QBs out of the top 2 this year. They all look like guys listed above, not elite talents but with some potential coming out of school.

Trying to find your quarterback after the first round is a lot like trying to save for the future by playing the lottery. Sure, you've seen a couple examples of success on the TV so that could happen to you right? Right? Well, what you don't get to see is all the failures that happened using the same strategy. Every year there seems to be 4-5 guys outside of the elite prospects that fans talk about as potential 2nd or 3rd round solutions at the QB position and we tend to forget about them after the draft. When you look back at those second tier guys years after the fact, they don't look so good.

I don't mind taking a QB in the 2nd/3rd round. I mind taking him and then spending a bunch of time and effort on him if we're only taking him for the sake of taking someone.

[HBnotBlades]

I don't mind taking a QB in the 2nd/3rd round. I mind taking him and then spending a bunch of time and effort on him if we're only taking him for the sake of taking someone.

Yes, the time is certainly a killer. The problem is trying to do things cheaply (not trading up, hoping for value later) at the QB position usually ends up being more expensive in the long run. I'd much rather spend multiple draft picks on one elite talent than draft multiple players who are mediocre talents over several years hoping to find one who blossoms.

Fortune favors the bold. If you see a guy you believe possesses elite potential (Luck, RGIII, etc.), put on your big boys pants, pay the price, get your guy, then move forward with the rest of your team. This isn't Vinny running the show anymore, the front office has shown the ability to find quality players outside the first round, trust them to do just that.

[Mister Happy]

All high picks are not the same. This year we had "Suck for Luck" or "Lay a Turd for Griffin the Third." Could you imagine people doing that for Matt Leinart or Joey Harrington?

There was a QB taken in the top 3 every year for the last 10 years because QB is a crucial position, not because there were guys like Luck and RG3 every year. There weren't. RG3 would have been the top QB for a lot of those years. Same with Luck.

When you only look at the QBs who were projected to be as good as Luck or RG3, the odds of success become much greater.

[Jericho]

Selecting a QB in this year's draft does not have to be all or nothing.

Skins can take Weeden and another from the second tier group ... Keenum, Moore, Davis, Lynley, Harnish , etc.

This is a perfect solution for a re-building team.

Next year's Draft will be even deeper in QB talent.

And ... there is decent chance the Skins can obtain either Flynn or Shaub.

Forget Luck and RGIII.

I don't understand anything in your post. You say taking Weedon and another lower level QB is perfect for a rebuilding team. Since history has shown the odds of either Weedon or any other lower tier QB developing into even an average starter in this league is pretty low, that seems like a losing recipe. Not to mention that both guys would need time to develop. I know Weedon is 28 now and will be 29 next year, but his age does not make him NFL ready. Even Andy Dalton, who was a 4 year starter in college (and red-shirted one more year), was not NFL ready. He was basically asked to manage a game and given a limited playbook. None of this lower level guys can reasonably be expected to step in and be good very quickly if at all. Which means it will be years before the team actually might be decent (assuming the QBs develop, which we've already shown is not likely).

Schaub is not available.

Flynn is, which is something.

Next year's QB may end up being deep. Of course people keep claiming this year's class is deep. and last year's class is deep. But outside the top picks, no one has proven to be a ver good QB. Even Dalton is only mediocre right now. History will see how he progresses and if he's a real difference maker like Newton. But there will be a lot of picks, and most of them will not pan out.

[GWinSkins83]

I don't understand anything in your post. You say taking Weedon and another lower level QB is perfect for a rebuilding team. Since history has shown the odds of either Weedon or any other lower tier QB developing into even an average starter in this league is pretty low, that seems like a losing recipe. Not to mention that both guys would need time to develop. I know Weedon is 28 now and will be 29 next year, but his age does not make him NFL ready. Even Andy Dalton, who was a 4 year starter in college (and red-shirted one more year), was not NFL ready. He was basically asked to manage a game and given a limited playbook. None of this lower level guys can reasonably be expected to step in and be good very quickly if at all. Which means it will be years before the team actually might be decent (assuming the QBs develop, which we've already shown is not likely).

Schaub is not available.

Flynn is, which is something.

Next year's QB may end up being deep. Of course people keep claiming this year's class is deep. and last year's class is deep. But outside the top picks, no one has proven to be a ver good QB. Even Dalton is only mediocre right now. History will see how he progresses and if he's a real difference maker like Newton. But there will be a lot of picks, and most of them will not pan out.

Yeah I don't want to settle. If we can't get one of the top 2 QBs need to wait till next year. When we know you got 5 seniors that are better than the 3rd rated QB in this draft. I would just get Olinemen and try and complete my Defense and throw some weapons in there too. But just say no to the 3rd talented QBs when we can fill our roster and get an Elite QB next year.

[Jericho]

I realize the skins need a qb bad, hmm make that real bad. I guess the debate at all cost comes down to how deep this qb draft might be.

A good example is this year. Would you rather have Carolina (Cam RoY) with the first pick Or Cinci going Green with the first pick and Dalton with the 2nd.

As good as Cam is and might be, I would still take the Bengals draft. If it is RG3 and no 2nd and no 1st next year or Blackmon and (Moore, Taneyhill or whoever) and keep our first next year. Put me in the camp of Blackmon and the 4th Rated qb.

I'd raise two points.

One, I'd still take Newton over the duo described. QB is that important and Newton has shown a lot more than Dalton at this stage. Doesn't mean Newton will end up better, but I'd take Newton over the duo.

Two, the idea of replicating the Bengals draft is foolhardy. AJ Green is an anomaly. People act like if they simply take another WR high in the draft, he will turn out like Green. Odds are he won't. Rookie WRs don't make the impact Green did and don't make Pro Bowls off the bat. And Green is/was a better prospect than Blackmon. I think any draft guru will tell you that. And although I think it's too early to proclaim Dalton as a future Pro Bowler, he at least looked decent out there. But for every Green/Dalton, there are a dozen misses. It could be Ted Ginn/Kevin Kolb in 2007 or Braylon Edwards/Jason Campbell in 2005 or Charlie Rodgers/Rex Grossman in 2003 or Dante Stallworth/Patrick Ramsey in 2002.

Don't go betting on a longshot simply because the last guy got a huge pay out. The odds of selecting two players remotely as good as Cincy did are very, very low.

[JumboJimmbo]

Completely agree with you GWinskins, i have been trying to preach this lately. If we can get griffin great but i will be disgusted if we reach on a later prospect in the first with next years Senior class

[HBnotBlades]

Also, we point to guys like Brees and Schaub as examples of guys who have been successful despite being 2nd and 3rd round picks. What we forget is that Brees didn't remotely resemble a quality starting quarterback until his 4th year in the league and Schaub didn't cement himself as a franchise quarterback until his 6th year. And those are the good examples.

We're not in a position to wait until 2017 for our QB to develop. Go get the guy with elite potential now.

If don't get a top guy this year, we might see our young team develop and our record improve to 8-8 even with poor QB play. At that point the cost to move up to draft an elite guy will be much more expensive. I see guys saying that trading up will be too expensive this year, but this is the cheapest it will be for years, unless you're planning to see a 2-14 season soon.

[FrFan]

Strange things happened, the 2 best Qbs have been eliminated from the playoffs this week , and we may have Joe vs Eli in the SB.

[DogofWar1]

I think its not a questiosn of waiting until next year ... but of selecting a QB in the upcoming Draft without sacrificng your Draft power disproportionally. The QB pools this year and next are very deep. Dip your toes in this year's pool by selecting QB's that "come to you" and see what happens. Pick a Weeden or a Cousins in the 2nd round and let them play ... they may surprise to the upside. In addition, pick Pick a Keenum or a Mooore in the later rounds as insurance. If the fan hits the sheed ... you can go back into the pool next year and go for the Barkley type!

This philosophy will fail significantly more often than it will succeed, unless you're lucky (and bad) enough to be around when an elite talent is there, you won't get one.

2nd round talents like Tannehill and Foles aren't exactly likely to be anything more than average, if even that.

3rd round talents like Weedon or Cousins are more likely to be career backups than average.

If you get lucky, you'll find a decent guy out there, but you've got to be really lucky.

Fact: we are not lucky. We've got 20 years of data backing that up.

I'd rather be good than lucky, and being good means going to get the talent we need. If Shanahan thinks that RGIII is the guy, then it doesn't matter how much you give up, you get him, and tell being lucky to take a hike.

If he thinks someone else is the guy and has a different plan, that's fine, but if we're going to just sit there and expect the table scraps to be enough, then we're going to be stuck down with the dogs.

[grhqofb5]

Without reading the rest of the thread, I'd say its about 50/50 we draft a "potential" franchise quarterback, (Luck or Griffin). I think the chances we get Griffin are 40%, Luck 10%. I think Luck has an 80% chance of developing into a franchise quarterback.. Griffin has about a 30% chance.

Therefore, the chances of the Redskins actually getting a franchise quarterback are about 20%.

[DogofWar1]

Without reading the rest of the thread, I'd say its about 50/50 we draft a "potential" franchise quarterback, (Luck or Griffin). I think the chances we get Griffin are 40%, Luck 10%. I think Luck has an 80% chance of developing into a franchise quarterback.. Griffin has about a 30% chance.

Therefore, the chances of the Redskins actually getting a franchise quarterback are about 20%.

Just wondering, why does Griffin only have a 30% chance of developing into a franchise QB? Skill wise he matches up pretty closely with Luck; not quite there, but he's not far behind either.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

Strange things happened, the 2 best Qbs have been eliminated from the playoffs this week , and we may have Joe vs Eli in the SB.

Even worse, it could be Alex Smith vs. Joe Flacco.

I think this shows how fragile a good NFL season can be. What more could the Packers or Saints have done and they are going to watch the conference championship games from their couches. At least their windows are wide open.

Last note...I wonder how often two #1 overall QBs have played in the conference championship games like Manning/Smith are about to? And could their paths to this game have been more different?

[Gregpeck99]

Skins stand no chance of landing Luck or RGIII.

Hopes will be crushed a la Cutler and Sanchez fiascos.

They must settle ... like it or not.

Might as well make the best of it.

Weeden Cousins Lynley have as much of a chance to excell as the two 'darlings."

Wishfull thinking will not assure a solution to Skins' QB issue. Inteliigent drafting wil.

[grhqofb5]

Just wondering, why does Griffin only have a 30% chance of developing into a franchise QB? Skill wise he matches up pretty closely with Luck; not quite there, but he's not far behind either.

Griffin stands a 30% chance of developing into a franchise quarterback because there's a lot of teams out there that will ruin him, one probably being the Redskins. If the question is-- why do I think Luck stands a better chance?-- that's because he's grown up in a football family, seems to have all the intangibles, isn't a runner (so he's forced to read defenses), and is bigger, has a stronger arm, etc.

[HBnotBlades]

Skins stand no chance of landing Luck or RGIII.

Hopes will be crushed a la Cutler and Sanchez fiascos.

They must settle ... like it or not.

Why do they have no chance? I'd say they have a very good chance. Regarding Cutler and Sanchez, I was very much against trading for either of those guys, but our situation was different then.

Weeden Cousins Lynley have as much of a chance to excell as the two 'darlings."

Wishfull thinking will not assure a solution to Skins' QB issue. Inteliigent drafting wil.

I don't think I could disagree with this more. All historical evidence points to Weeden, Cousins, and Lindley being much, much less likely (about 1 in 50) to develop into a franchise QB. Even if they did, it would take years of development.

You really think a guy like Lindley (that's who I'm assuming Lynley is referring to) who only completed 53% of his passes and has very questionable accuracy is as good of a prospect as Luck or RGIII?

[Hitman21ST]

Strange things happened, the 2 best Qbs have been eliminated from the playoffs this week , and we may have Joe vs Eli in the SB.

That's because not matter how good the QB is, they need a defense to be able to have success in the playoffs.

A great QB can lead a team to a great season because they don't need to be "on" every game. They don't have to win every game. However, in the playoffs, they need to be "on" every game if they don't have a defense to back them up. If they're not, then you get a Packers yesterday.

A team with a great defense might "limp" into the playoffs because of injuries, etc take the toll over the season. However when playoffs roll around, a great defense can afford to have one or two guys out or have a bad game, because the other 9 or 10 guys will make up for it. If the QB is off one game, that's it for an offense-only team.

[Thirtyfive2seven]

Easily said ... but picking the right one is a challenge.

Trading up and mortgaging the farm is too risky.

Employ intelligent hedging techniques until you strike gold!

How about Brock Oisweiler anyone?

Dude not even Luck is a sure thing. Ryan Leaf... RGIII. At this point it doesn't matter. You try and if you strike gold great - and if you crap out well at least you had the nuts to try. The coaching staff will pick the right one and they have much more information than we do.

[fish]

I'd add Rivers and Stafford to the "current and qualified" list and I'd add Locker as a solid "undetermined, but probable" list.

Having said that - I say NO. Go free agency and draft to plus up the QB position.

[clskinsfan]

Dude not even Luck is a sure thing. Ryan Leaf... RGIII. At this point it doesn't matter. You try and if you strike gold great - and if you crap out well at least you had the nuts to try. The coaching staff will pick the right one and they have much more information than we do.

I understand and agree we have to get a QB from some where. But also remember that trying and striking out almost always means your ass is fired.

[Wyvern]

The second QBs taken highly are an ugly group:

Joey Harrington (#3)

Byron Leftwich (#7)

Philip Rivers (#4)

Matt Leinart (#10)

Mark Sanchez (#5)

Jake Locker (#8)

Basically one hit out of six. RGIII will make it two out of 7! (god willing)

I read the back-and-forth on this and decided to do some research. I went back to the Elway pick and listed off the first two QBs picked in the first round -- assuming there were at least two QBs picked in the first round. (To avoid complications, I avoided supplemental draft picks.)

Here are the results:

1983 ........John Elway................Todd Blackledge

1984 ........Steve Young..............Wayne Pease

1986 ........Jim Everett ...............Chuck Long

1987 ........Vinny Testaverde........Kelly Stouffer

1990 ........Jeff George ...............Andre Ware

1991 ........Dan McGwire ............Todd Marinovich

1992 ........David Klingler.............Tommy Maddox

1993* .......Drew Bledsoe............ Rick Mirer

1994 ........Heath Schuler ...........Trent Dilfer

1995 ........Steve McNair ............Kerry Collins

1998* ........Peyton Manning ........ Ryan Leaf

1999** ......Tim Couch ................ Donovan McNabb ........Alkili Smith

2001 ........Michael Vick ............. Drew Brees (1st pick second round)

2002 ........David Carr ................. Joey Harrington (3rd pick overall)

2003 .........Carson Palmer ......... Byron Leftwich

2004 .........Eli Manning ............. Philip Rivers

2005 ........Alex Smith ................Aaron Rodgers (then Campbell!)

2006 ........Vince Young .............Matt Leinart

2007 ........Jamarcus Russell ......Brady Quinn

2008 .........Matt Ryan................Joe Flacco

2009.........Matt Stafford ............ Mark Sanchez

2010.........Sam Bradford ...........Tim Tebow

2011.........Cam Newton ............Jake Locker (Gabbert two picks later)

[Years with "*" -- Picks were top 2 in the draft]

[Years with "**" -- Picks were top 3 in the draft]

Bottom line -- Destino is correct, the second QB picked in the first round of the draft -- especially ones close after the first pick -- haven't been all that great. Sometimes good QBs were picked after the second overall QB pick..

[FrFan]

That's because not matter how good the QB is, they need a defense to be able to have success in the playoffs.

A great QB can lead a team to a great season because they don't need to be "on" every game. They don't have to win every game. However, in the playoffs, they need to be "on" every game if they don't have a defense to back them up. If they're not, then you get a Packers yesterday.

A team with a great defense might "limp" into the playoffs because of injuries, etc take the toll over the season. However when playoffs roll around, a great defense can afford to have one or two guys out or have a bad game, because the other 9 or 10 guys will make up for it. If the QB is off one game, that's it for an offense-only team.

That was my point in the post. We should stop hyperventilating about Luck and RG3, we can do it without them. I believe defenses win championships.