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***Official 2011/2012 Winter Weather Thread***


mikered30

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0Z GFS and Euro models both showing SECS storms for DC proper.

2-4 Richmond

4-8 IAD

6-12 WV VA border.

There is the possibility. The million dollar question is what the northern stream does. Does it hold back and phase with the southern stream or does it hold back a piece of energy and let the southern stream take over. If the southern stream is too strong it will bring more warm air with it changing a majority of precip to rain. Lots of particulars to figure out before people start buying toilet paper and bread :P. I'll be watching it throughout the day.

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When will things become a little more certain (one way or the other)? Would it be by Friday afternoon? Saturday morning?

Also, what is it looking like in terms of a timeline? Sunday only?

I believe things will become more certain once Thursday's storm moves out of the way.

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interesting. When is the next run? I assume we will know more by tomorrow night around this time for sure?

Yup, the NAM is a good short range model, all eyes will be on tomorrow night's run. The next runs tonight are the GFS at 11pm and the EURO at 1am.

---------- Post added February-16th-2012 at 10:11 PM ----------

3, 2, 1...initiating public panic now:

NAM snowfall in inches :ols:

432358_340406136003957_171190869592152_1091856_987312545_n.jpg

Gives DC 10 inches of snow, Central VA gets walloped. Remember, the storm is still too far out for the NAM to be trustworthy at this point. This is a surprise to everyone, we'll see if the other models follow suit.

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if you're into weather just fyi (better to look here than to post btw) a good forum is americanwx.com

love these guys

Also, I've really been impressed with some of the Mets over on Rob Guarino's website, Liveweatherblogs.com . Guys like Rob, Mike DeFino, Bobby Martrich have posted some really good blogs in the last 24hrs or so regarding all of the technicals behind this storms setup, and of course most of what they're saying puts MBY right in the bullseye so thats even better :D

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Isn't that how it always happens? Why can't it snow during the week??

When you get to be my age (mid-30s) and have kids, you almost prefer the weekend storms. The kids can play, you don't have to worry about how to get to work (since usually you still have to or need to get in), etc.

I just want a good storm before spring. If it falls on a Sunday, that's fine...more excuse to be lazy and take full advantage of my weekend. Now, excuse me while I put on my slippers, grab a paper, and shuffle back into the house before I catch a cold.

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