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***Official 2011/2012 Winter Weather Thread***


mikered30

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What are we looking at in fredericksburg? 1 hr south of DC AND IS'NT IT SUPPOSE TO START TOMMOROW NIGHT?

Yup, it starts tomorrow night. You could get anywhere from a dusting to close to 10 inches. That may sound ridiculous, but I'm sick of predictions changing every hour. Nobody knows. Yet I can already imagine those who get lucky with their "final predictions" will be tooting their horns like a symphony. :ols:

Nobody knows how this storm is going to react yet. The GFS hates snow lovers right now, but it's been a little-off all Winter long. It's put storms on DC and they've actually gone on a more northerly track, completely missing us, hence the stupid Winter we've had. Let's hope that's the case again.

The 0z runs tonight will be the best hint we'll get, but still, this storm is going to drop a lot of snow over a small area. The High and Low are having a tug of war, right now this storm is like a long field goal in to a crosswind. There's no telling what's gonna happen 'til that ball reaches the goalpost.

The best thing for everyone to do is prepare for the worst, which isn't a blizzard. Don't go buying generators and dented milk cartons, just chill. Go out to the shed, get your shovel, get the salt, put 'em near your back doors.

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So...is it a miss or a couple inches? Also, what's the timing now? It seems to have moved later and later.

starts around 3 with the real accumulating snow (if any) mostly after 6. ending by monday morning

1-2" for the area is a solid and generous call. In my opinion, anyways.

anything could happen though. The models are all over the place.

further south and west you are the more snow you get.

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starts around 3 with the real accumulating snow (if any) mostly after 6. ending by monday morning

1-2" for the area is a solid and generous call. In my opinion, anyways.

anything could happen though. The models are all over the place.

further south and west you are the more snow you get.

Thanks...I guess we should just hope for the best.

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The NAM just went WAY, WAY south. Central Virginia, who has been the bullseye more or less, is almost a complete miss now. :ols:

Southern VA and Northern NC is where the NAM says it's headed. Who fricken' knows. :ols:

A couple days ago the thing said it was going to curve North, yesterday it showed the storm slicing through Virginia, now it's going to dive South. This has been crazy.

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The NAM just went WAY, WAY south. Central Virginia, who has been the bullseye more or less, is almost a complete miss now. :ols:

Southern VA and Northern NC is where the NAM says it's headed. Who fricken' knows. :ols:

A couple days ago the thing said it was going to curve North, yesterday it showed the storm slicing through Virginia, now it's going to dive South. This has been crazy.

you might wanna mention the NAM's reputation lol. In all seriousness I'm clinging on to false hope. I just wanna see some pretty snowflakes for a while. hopefully that'll happen.

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nail in the coffin.

Looks as if the area will be lucky to recieve flurries.

This storm is a bust. gooodnight all.

I'm so done with the NAM, thing has been absolutely retarded. The radar shows this storm heading northeast. I know all the factors involved influenced the models to show it going OTS through southern VA, but as of right now it looks good. This thing curves east like expected and I may just plan a trip to Nova Scotia. And I'm taking my flying saucer sled with me!

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I'm so done with the NAM, thing has been absolutely retarded. The radar shows this storm heading northeast. I know all the factors involved influenced the models to show it going OTS through southern VA, but as of right now it looks good. This thing curves east like expected and I may just plan a trip to Nova Scotia. And I'm taking my flying saucer sled with me!

It does look like its heading northeast....but how far north and the when arrives (important for temps) who knows....

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so much of the radar is virga. and much of the precip will dry up if it even manages to sneak up here imo. I'm going to be a pessemistic (spelt wrong but too devistated to care) douche until I see a flake.

I'm really at least hoping for a heavy dusting

but our good friend Tony Pann from WBAL is still calling for 2-4" /3-6" south

:ols:

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Here in NC. Courtesy of WRAL. http://www.wral.com/weather/story/10751982/

"Areas from the Raleigh region north and west will be under a winter weather advisory from 3 p.m. Sunday until 9 a.m. Monday because of the chance for sleet, snow and icy conditions on roadways during the morning hours.

The chances for snowfall and accumulation are greater toward the Virginia border. Areas south and southeast of Raleigh could see some snow as precipitation tapers off, but accumulations are unlikely, Moss said. "

NO SNOW FOR US. BOOOOOOOOOOOO.

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The GFS and NAM from yesterday are already wrong. The runs from a couple days ago look more like what is happening. The bulk of the storm is in southwestern VA and NC, but the precip field is reaching DC already. The storm is still moving east/northeast. A continued trend to the northeast and this puppy could give the DCA a little snow...

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