The Official Washington Basketball Thread: Wizards, Mystics etc

[abdcskins]

^ Agreed.

 

Jan Vesely

 

He is trash.  Wizards have lacked a quality big man since I was born.  Front court depth has always been an issue.  It's amazing that we finally have Nene.  We all know his health issues though, and he's own the downslope of his career (aka >30).

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

Wiggins would do wonders for the Bullets, and I don't see how they don't have a good shot at this lottery. But since it's apparent that Ainge is tanking, he's probably a lock for the Celtics. Prove me wrong Silver.

 

The NBA hates tankers though.  Except for the 2002 Cavs, I think every deliberate tank job has failed to get the #1 overall pick.  The 2007 Celtics tanked like crazy, had the most ping pong balls for a shot at either Greg Oden or Kevin Durant and only got the 5th pick.

[SuperBash]

Time to cut Vesley and move on. I don't ever see him contributing any minutes on a playoff team because he is literally the worst NBA player in the league. Take emotion and hope out of the thinking and it's an easy decision.

Sure. But he's under contract. You can't just cut him. Wouldn't make sense. If we can get another team to take that contract, then I'd do it.

[Going Commando]

Most sites gave us good marks for the draft, although we also got good marks initially for 2011 as well.

 

I'm not so certain Porter starts from day one.  If Ariza is still on the roster opening day, I see him as the starting SF. Porter will play plenty, but he won't be better than Ariza initially, especially on defense.

I don't know, Webster beat out Ariza for the starting job last year. If we bring him back, I think he's the early starter.

But I would like to see Otto start day one. I wouldn't mind going into a season with all of our key roles and lineups already to determined for a change. You know Porter is going to win the job eventually. If he starts immediately, he can build chemistry with the first line and Webster can build it with the second unit. I'd want Webster to be the leader of that group.

[Destino]

Steve I understand your opinion about chemistry but I think the Wizards need accountability as well.  Remember that it wasn't too long ago that reports were coming out of the locker room that guys weren't working and felt entitled.  The organization needs consistency in delivering the message that you get only the minutes that you earn and part of that is making rookies earn starting spots.  If Porter is as good as we think he is then he will beat out Martel sooner than later.

 

Also I don't think this team wants to use the starting unit as developmental training.  They think they can be good immediately and I think management should approach the season with that same mindset.  All players need three years anyway and Okafor and Ariza won't be here next season, might as well make a push while they still have a veteran roster.  

[Going Commando]

Steve I understand your opinion about chemistry but I think the Wizards need accountability as well.  Remember that it wasn't too long ago that reports were coming out of the locker room that guys weren't working and felt entitled.  The organization needs consistency in delivering the message that you get only the minutes that you earn and part of that is making rookies earn starting spots.  If Porter is as good as we think he is then he will beat out Martel sooner than later.

 

Also I don't think this team wants to use the starting unit as developmental training.  They think they can be good immediately and I think management should approach the season with that same mindset.  All players need three years anyway and Okafor and Ariza won't be here next season, might as well make a push while they still have a veteran roster.

I meant that I hope Porter wins the starting job day one. I agree, he definitely shouldn't be given the job if he hasn't earned it. I'd like to see him win the job like Beal did. But if he doesn't, that's alright. Winning does need to be the priority now. And as good as he is, he's clearly going to be the starter in time.

[Going Commando]

Remember when the Wizards were Gilbert Arenas, JaVale McGee, Nick Young, and Andray Blatche?

This team, truly, could not be more different from that one. We've got a Spurs like vibe now. Now we just need to win 70% of our games like them  .

 

Regardless, this is a group we can actually be proud of.

[The Sisko]

Agreed Steve. NBA Finals or bust! ;-)

[Hersh]

Time to cut Vesley and move on. I don't ever see him contributing any minutes on a playoff team because he is literally the worst NBA player in the league. Take emotion and hope out of the thinking and it's an easy decision.

Sure. But he's under contract. You can't just cut him. Wouldn't make sense. If we can get another team to take that contract, then I'd do it.

Being under contract doesn't mean he can't be cut. He'd still count against the books but he can still be gone. Rather them sign some undrafted rookie for almost nothing with some semblance of basketball skill than see vesley play again.

[pjfootballer]

I love the Rice pick. I was so afraid we'd take a couple of Euros to stash. He'll be a good bench player. And of course Otto was my pick all along. Even this negative Wizards can can't say anything bad about this draft. Good job. I'm not crowning them a playoff team yet, but this is a good step in the right direction

 

Mind = BLOWN.

 

You feeling Ok?  Your post is the equivalent of Will Ferrell's speech in Old School. 

 

Coming from you, I'll take it!!

If the team does something good, I can give them praise.  Like I said, still have to prove they can get to the playoffs, but it's a step in the right direction to rebuild the team.  With Wall, Beal and Porter, you have 3 guys who can be the backbone of the roster.  Porter can contribute immediately and it wouldn't surprise me to see him penciled in in the starting lineup.  I'm still in a prove me wrong mode, but my stance has weakened.

[RonArtest15]

FWIW,

 

Knicks had GRJr. targeted w/ their 1st round pick:

 

Marc Berman
‏@NYPost_Berman




20h






 

If Hardaway wasn't there, #Knicks would've snapped up Bullock. If both weren't there, Glen Rice Jr. was next. Plumlee not on radar.

[LetMeSeeYourWarFace21]

Somehow, some way, Ernie Grunfeld has blundered our way into an incredible position. There is so much we did wrong:

- Gilbert Arenas extension.

- Mike Miller & Randy Foye

- We whiffed on the entire 2011 class.

- We royally screwed up extending Blatche and had to use our amnesty on him. Still paying him for a while too.

- We ended up with a situation where we had to play JaVale McGee and Nick Young big minutes, making us effectively the dumbest team in the NBA. The Shaqtin' A Fool Dynasty.

- There was a point when Jordan Big Balls Crawford, who once claimed he could be at least as good as MJ, was our team MVP and only credible scorer. In the midst of a 4-28 stretch.

--------------

And then there is so much that just kind of fell into place for us:

- We got our young superstar by getting majorly lucky in the lottery. In a year where there was a transcendent talent at PG.

- We got the platonic ideal of runningmates for him in Beal and Porter soon after. You literally could not have drafted a SG and SF better suited to playing with Wall.

And there isn't a chance in hell that could have happened without lottery luck. One pick later in 2012 and Beal would be a Cleveland Cavalier and we'd have been screwed. This year, if we'd been stuck at 8, we would have missed out on Bennett, Porter, Noel, Len, Zeller, Dipo, and McLemore! That was every non PG in the top tier! We'd have been totally screwed and would have had to take CJ McCollum or something--not a bad player, but a career reserve for us. The basketball gods smiled on us lottery night in three out of four consecutive years. The improbability of that blows my mind. We're the Wizards!

- We traded Gil and his impossible contract and somehow ended up with a decent starting C and a pretty good rotational SF with deals that expire at just the right time. We lucked into a situation where a GM in the division was desperately trying to make it work with Dwight and he had a suitable contract to make a one for one trade. Fastforward to today, Gil is off doing God knows what, out of the league and just got arrested. Our young franchise PG is emerging as a star. And the GM that traded for Gil has long since been fired and his team has been burnt to the ground and is in the middle of a total rebuild. We dodged a nuclear bomb. Again, we're the Wizards. That just doesn't happen to us.

- We took advantage of Denver's unusual buyer's remorse to upgrade from JaVale Pierre McGee to Nene. That Nene was available in and of itself was such an unlikely turn of events. He had a career year where he lead the NBA in FG%, got hurt in the offseason, and came into the year slowed. Which scared Denver just months after they signed him to a big long term extension. It was a bizarre sequence of events and it bailed us out of a bad situation at C. And before anyone starts whining about Nene's contract because of his injuries, consider the alternatives. We could be paying JaVale McGee 11 million a year for the next three years instead. Or worse, we could have no credible 7 footer at all and be forced to lean on Kevin Seraphin.

- We lucked into Martell, who signed for peanuts because Minny gave up on him because of health issues. He ends up being a big locker room guy and has a career year. When has a frequently injured free agent coming off a disappointing stint for two other teams ever blossomed as a Wizard?

- And then we made what, at the time, seemed a terrible trade for Okafor and Ariza. Only both improbably got better once they got here, which might be the first time in Wizards history that has ever happened. We actually bought low from another team.

The expirings are useful players in the meantime, guys you wouldn't mind seeing stick around at a reduced cost. And it postponed our massive amount of scheduled savings in expiring deals by one year to just the right summer. It's a good RFA market. And the confluence of a deep, potentially star studded UFA class, a very nice RFA class, a once in a decade draft class, and brand new, harsh luxury taxes have created a tremendous buyer's market for teams looking for vet players.

And at the same time, the Eastern Conference is in the midst of realigning itself:

- Boston just went into full on tank mode. Scratch them from the playoffs for a while.

- Orlando went into tank mode last season and should be there for a while.

- Philly went into tank mode and should be there for a while too.

- Atlanta went into tank mode, scratch them from the palyoffs too.

- Toronto is in the midst of an overhaul and has a mess of a roster.

- Detroit and Milwaukee are stuck in purgatory, without stars or any way to get one, on the fringes of the playoff picture for the forseeable future.

- Charlotte is Charlotte (although I think they get better eventually).

- Chicago and Indiana have probably reached their ceilings. They've got good but flawed teams that have scoring issues and no realistic way to fix those issues definitively. Chicago is over the tax and has two pretty bad contracts in Deng and Boozer. Indiana is going to lose whatever flexibility they gain from letting Granger walk when they immediately have to go and max out Paul George.

- The Knicks have a fundamentally flawed roster and zero flexibility.

- The Nets are a mess of an organization with no flexibility any more, a bizarre coaching hire, an aging roster with a tiny window to be a pretend contender.

- Miami is still Miami, and this is still their conference. But that big 3 construction has an expiration date on it, and you started to see cracks in the foundation this postseason. They might have to retool around LeBron as early as next summer.

There is going to be room for the Wizards to jump up into the upper echelon of the East.

Still have to see how Philly and Boston and Orlando and Charlotte come out of the 2014 draft. But as of today, the only Eastern teams that scare me long term are Miami, Chicago, and Cleveland. Each have legit superstars leading them, and though Brooklyn and New York do too, those rosters are a mess.

But I think we can be better than Chicago and Cleveland having the same superstar PG construction. I think that, though DRose is better than Wall, Beal and Porter will be better than Chicago's #2 and #3. And I think Wall is better than Kyrie, Beal is better than Waiters, and Porter will be at least as good as Bennett, if not better.

We just need to find a long term option at PF or C.

 

 

GREAT POST..........

[Chachie]

 

I love the Rice pick. I was so afraid we'd take a couple of Euros to stash. He'll be a good bench player. And of course Otto was my pick all along. Even this negative Wizards can can't say anything bad about this draft. Good job. I'm not crowning them a playoff team yet, but this is a good step in the right direction

 

Mind = BLOWN.

 

You feeling Ok?  Your post is the equivalent of Will Ferrell's speech in Old School. 

 

Coming from you, I'll take it!!

If the team does something good, I can give them praise.  Like I said, still have to prove they can get to the playoffs, but it's a step in the right direction to rebuild the team.  With Wall, Beal and Porter, you have 3 guys who can be the backbone of the roster.  Porter can contribute immediately and it wouldn't surprise me to see him penciled in in the starting lineup.  I'm still in a prove me wrong mode, but my stance has weakened.

 

 

 

My broadest skepticism is directed at the head coach. I like Randy but I don't believe in Randy.

[Going Commando]

Well, to be fair, it's hard to be a good coach when your team isn't built right. After John got back from injury last year was really the first time of the Wall era that the team started functioning like it was intended to. It was the first time the roster wasn't a total work in progress.

If you think about it, the first two years of the Wall era were a big remodel and we were effectively a one man team. Blatche and McGee and Young needed to be moved ASAP. Crawford needed to go. Vesely didn't work out. Singleton didn't work out. Seraphin was completely raw. Booker spent a lot of time injured. All of our veteran players were bad and our young players were in development. Nobody could shoot except Young and Crawford and they were bad shot takers. Nobody at all could defend. Nene came in late and only played a handful of games, and only 8 games with Wall that season.

So Wall really only played 8 games in the first two years of his career with a single other good NBA player. Nobody else he played with was even fit to start for an NBA team. I don't think anyone who was on those two teams and is no longer here is a starter on their other teams. Most ended up on the end of the bench elsewhere. Booker was the second best Wizard of those first two seasons. And he was in development just like Wall.

Then last season Wall suddenly has six or seven teammates who are actually pretty good for the first time. Not just Booker, but also Nene, Beal, Okafor, Ariza, and Martell. Price and Temple are solid too. And he went from having three or four knuckleheads to none.

The one thing Randy has is a good rapport with our main players and he's going to use this team the way it was intended when it was built. Keep the continuity and not force us to abandon certain pieces we want to develop like a new coach inevitably would. He's definitely not going to get in John's way. John is his extension on the court, and that's very valuable. Beal is a player that he understands, he knows how to nurture and use him. And it seems like he couldn't be happier about coaching Otto, so you can expect him to take to Otto like he has Beal.

On the whole, the team has bought in to him and they play hard for him. Even when we were at our nadir last season, they didn't bail on him like 9 out of 10 locker rooms would have. That's a good start. From there, let's see if we can grow this thing into a playoff team. Once it's off the ground in a year or so, we can evaluate Randy and consider whether to find a coach with a better reputation to take over the finished product.

I think you just keep signing Randy to short term contracts so long as we keep making progress. When we plateau with him, you don't want to be on the hook for a long deal. I'd keep it to one or two year extensions until we achieve some stability and a legit upgrade comes along.

[StillUnknown]

It bothers me that in Wall's first 4 years, he will be coached by a lame duck in Saunders & a guy who even at his best, is remedial on offense. I think a better offensive mind gets more out of Wall & Beal's potential.

 

I want to get out of this mentality where because of past events, we now give Wittman brownie points for achieving the bare minimum, getting your team to compete. Wittman is the type that needs everything to be good around to achieve mediocrity. When things go wrong, and with our franchise that tends to happen at a better than average rate, things go to hell, but we give him a pass because the team "plays hard". He should get credit for that, but not so much that it negates his obvious flaws.

 

That being said, he works for cheap. If we get to the 7th or 8th seed, he'll be extended and we'll keep spinning wheels. If Ted backed him up to now, he's not going to jettison him if he actually has a winning record.

[Destino]

I think you bounce Randy and hire a head coach that runs an advanced NBA offensive system. None if this "lets try some pick and roll" crap along with trying to space the floor. That lazy trash is why so many head coaches, even the ones that have success, are fired and replaced without a second thought. It doesn't work unless you have more talent than the other team.

The wizards are not going to be the most talented team and as such need to go with something greater than Wittman can muster. I'd have loved to have Shaw here. There is a reason Popp and Jackson won so many rings and its not because they handed the ball to their best player and said "make it happen". Those teams max out the role players and created wide open shots against any and all defenses.

The wizards offense often has three guys moving and two guys watching. It's a sad sight. Not as sad as Wittman's plays after a timeout though... That's a special kind if depressing. Randy is playing checkers. Ain't nobody got time for dat.

Edited June 30, 2013 by Destino

[Thinking Skins]

I think you've got to evaluate Randy in the context of this team. Its not like we were in consideration for Phil Jackson and wound up getting Randy. Most of the coaches we'd be considering would probably be on the same level as Randy.

One thing I don't want to do is keep signing Randy to these short term deals. Maybe short is ok, but not one year deals. That leads to no type of a consistency. I'm of the opinion that Randy should probably get a 3 year contract when we re-up Wall and we make a decision to let him control the ship for a few years. If Randy's able to turn this place around (as he has already to an extent), then he deserves a lot of credit. I mean,, I loved Eddie Jordan because he brought me relevancy in the playoffs during my lifetime. But he also brought in an undisciplined culture that hurt players like Blatche, Young and McGee. Hopefully that culture is now gone and we can make a name for ourselves with hard working players.

[Burgold]

Why could we not be in contention for one of the better coaches or prospects?  Snyder was always able to lure a big name even with terrible records and a ghastly organization.  Is basketball very different?

[Going Commando]

Why could we not be in contention for one of the better coaches or prospects?  Snyder was always able to lure a big name even with terrible records and a ghastly organization.  Is basketball very different?

Yeah. The nature of the games are different, which changes the way they are coached. Football is much more scripted and specialized. Xs and Os are very important. Basketball is much more of a game of generalists, much more dynamic. Coaching largely becomes about managing personalities, keeping people positive and motivated, keeping the team's confidence high, etc. It's more intangible stuff IMO. Less of a chess match. I don't think it matters exactly what type of plays or system a team runs so long as they can execute it very well. It will work and they will score if the execution is great and it will give the players confidence and they will get into rhythms and play well even when they don't run set plays.

The axiom in the NBA is that coaches don't win games, they only lose them. It's really about the players in the end. Greg Popovich is one of the greatest ever and it still wasn't enough to beat Miami because his players weren't as good.

IMO, there are probably only 4 or 5 coaches in the NBA that are truly great. Where their teams have a significant coaching advantage. Everyone else runs along a continuum of good to bad but it wouldn't make a difference if their players are bad. So there really isn't a big supply of difference makers in the NBA.

Also, the nature of the leagues makes it harder for an NBA coach to shape his team in his image. NBA players take so much longer to develop than NFL players on average. An NFL coach can totally build his own team from the ground up in about three offseasons. By that fourth year, if he was a successful team builder, the roster is ready to rock. It takes a lot longer in the NBA unless you've already got a superstar in his prime. Most coaches don't walk into that kind of situation. So if you come in to coach a rebuilding team, even if you make all of the right draft picks, they still might take four or five years to fully mature--that's before you even start winning games, much less actually contend. Big men in particular take forever. The rule of thumb is 4-6 years. So if you draft a 19 year old DeMarcus Cousins to rebuild around, but he is raw and immature, in six years he might be the best center in the league. It's the right pick. But he might also be on his second or third team by then and you might be long since fired.

The first thing an NFL team wants to do when they rebuild is get rid of every old player possible and go as young as possible. You pick high in the top ten to fifteen a couple years in a row and then you've got a young team that grows up together with the same four or five year window. NBA teams can't go totally young like that or it will end up in disaster. It's a delicate balancing act.

Also, NFL teams routinely find difference making talent throughout the top 100 in every draft class. So many different systems, they can take someone that works specifically for them that other people couldn't and he can be very productive. In the NBA, you might get 7 or 8 players in a class that make meaningful contributions in the NBA. Usually only two or three that can make multiple All Star games. For everyone else, you're lucky if you get someone who stays on your roster for a while. It's so much harder to build through the draft in the NBA. You have to get lucky and be picking at the right slots in the right years.

[StillUnknown]

Why could we not be in contention for one of the better coaches or prospects?  Snyder was always able to lure a big name even with terrible records and a ghastly organization.  Is basketball very different?

 

Snyder was never afraid to break the bank on a coach, Ted hasn't shown interest in paying good money for a coach. Not saying thats the only way to get it done, it hasn't worked for Snyder yet (Shanahan may be his first success story). When you have so many alleged disadvantages (i.e.: big time free agents don't want to come here, which I argue with), it makes more sense to put a better coach in place that could get the most out of a talent level that management acknowledges won't be top notch unless we nurture our own.

 

I get the feeling Ted is perfectly fine with mediocrity. He wants a team that he can sell as a playoff threat, even if its just a 7th or 8th seed.

[Burgold]

Talent follows the piggy bank.  How many all stars are lining up to play for Popovich or even a constantly good/great Spurs team?  If money is equal they may look to something else... city life, climate, tax laws, winning cast, but money seems to be the number one driver.

[Destino]

Yeah. The nature of the games are different, which changes the way they are coached. Football is much more scripted and specialized. Xs and Os are very important. Basketball is much more of a game of generalists, much more dynamic. Coaching largely becomes about managing personalities, keeping people positive and motivated, keeping the team's confidence high, etc. It's more intangible stuff IMO. Less of a chess match. I don't think it matters exactly what type of plays or system a team runs so long as they can execute it very well. It will work and they will score if the execution is great and it will give the players confidence and they will get into rhythms and play well even when they don't run set plays.

The axiom in the NBA is that coaches don't win games, they only lose them. It's really about the players in the end. Greg Popovich is one of the greatest ever and it still wasn't enough to beat Miami because his players weren't as good.

 

And yet the two best coaches of the last 20 years Pop and Jackson did a great deal more than just manage personalities.  Jackson got talent to go along with his system and won eleven rings.  Pop with less less talent and won four.  The Spurs went up against the most talented team the NBA has to offer with an old and injured roster and was one free throw away from winning a title.  Does anyone think the Spurs roster coached by, lets say, Mike Brown even makes it to the finals?  I don't.  

 

In the NBA people say "coaches lose games"... when they aren't talking about Popovich or Phil Jackson.  I think there are other coaches that improve their teams that aren't nearly as decorated.  Also I think this recent post season saw a great deal of coaching moves having a huge impact.  We just watched a finals series where the starting lineups for both teams changed without an injury causing either.  

[Thinking Skins]

In the NBA people say "coaches lose games"... when they aren't talking about Popovich or Phil Jackson.  I think there are other coaches that improve their teams that aren't nearly as decorated.  Also I think this recent post season saw a great deal of coaching moves having a huge impact.  We just watched a finals series where the starting lineups for both teams changed without an injury causing either.

Yeah, but Pop and Jackson aren't interested in rebuilds. So the only type of coaches we can get are guys like the ones we've gotten. Maybe we could have done more when we had Gilbert et al, but I really think we should have kept Jordan, but thats another argument. Doing a rebuild isn't the time to hire a coach cause like steve said, its more about the players you have than the system you run. Sure when you have the players, you get into questions of what system optimally utilizes their skillsets, but when your second best player is Trevor Booker, it doesn't matter if you're running Princeton or the Triangle, you're probably not going to win 30 games.

[Destino]

Yeah, but Pop and Jackson aren't interested in rebuilds. So the only type of coaches we can get are guys like the ones we've gotten. Maybe we could have done more when we had Gilbert et al, but I really think we should have kept Jordan, but thats another argument. Doing a rebuild isn't the time to hire a coach cause like steve said, its more about the players you have than the system you run. Sure when you have the players, you get into questions of what system optimally utilizes their skillsets, but when your second best player is Trevor Booker, it doesn't matter if you're running Princeton or the Triangle, you're probably not going to win 30 games.

 

I agree with the rebuild sentiment but I like to think that the rebuild is mostly over.  The team is going to build around Wall, Beal, and Porter (if he works out).  At the end of this season, if nothing changes, the team should have plenty of cap space.  They should be trying to lure some free agents after this season but that's diminished if Wittman screws everything up and the organization has to go on a coaching search after another down year.    

[Going Commando]

Well if Wittman screws this up and we have another down year, his contract is up this summer. We won't even have to make a decision about replacing him.

If we have to go in a new direction, we can do it. I think any new FO would be fine building around Wall, Beal, and Porter. Nene is the only big long term deal we've got as of today. We should be flexible.

I don't think it'll come to that though. I think the combination of a lot of new teams going into the tank in the East, several more further behind in the rebuild than we are, and the fruition of our own rebuild will launch us into the playoffs as a mid seed. I think it's inevitable.