The Official Washington Basketball Thread: Wizards, Mystics etc

[Going Commando]

There's no reason to overly complicate things. All one needs to say is a very simple sentence: if Roy Hibbert were on the Wizards, they would be competitive, conceivably a playoff claiber team. 

 

Hibbert was drafted #17. I think it's fair to say that a selection in the top 15, if lucky in the top 10, should give them a shot at someone of note in the draft. Things would have to align, yes, but a good draft class coupled with a top 15 selection is not an unconceivable thing, either by merit (regular season record) or through trade, of some sort.

The Wizards are built in such a way that they can be flexible. They've got plenty of scoring punch from the 1-3. They've got players who are well balanced and good at pretty much everything so they can play multiple styles--fast paced or half court heavy. The 1-3 can all defend so you don't have to structure lineups that hide anyone. And Wall, Beal, Otto, and Nene are very unselfish players who make their teammates better so you don't need an offensive creator at the five to run a great offense.

I like Hibbert, but he didn't really become a star until this postseason. That's five years into his career. When you take a project big man like him outside the very top of the draft, you can count on them taking 4 to 6 years to develop. So if we had one starting today, Wall might be 27 or 28 before that guy hits his stride. That's an eternity.

Project bigs tend to stay with the teams that develop them and receive expensive second contracts, and it isn't until that second contract that they start making major contributions usually. Lopez in Brooklyn, Noah in Chicago, Hibbert in Indiana, Gasol in Memphis, Bynum in LA--until the Lakers dumped him for Dwight. So you're not likely to get one in RFA. And it'll mostly be journeymen in UFA, probably looking to hop on with a contender if they're any good. If you're a really good situation, you might be able to pull in an unhappy superstar.

 

Also, there's no one person on the depth of this team which needs to stand in the way of trying to get the most dominate Center or PF. Even if the team needs to strip the depth in order to get a premiere player, do it, depth can always be rebuilt. 

 

That's why I think a trade seems in order, just to expedite things.

trade is probably the only realistic way to bring in a big with the right career window. The problem is, we have very few valuable trade assets outside of our core of Porter, Beal, and Wall. And we don't need to be giving up any of them. You've got Nene, who is going to be difficult to deal until he is expiring. You've got draft picks that will probably be outside the lottery for years and thus of minimal trade value. You've got Oak's and Ariza's expirings but expiring deals are only very valuable to teams in specific situations, and you usually have to take back bad contracts in return. Vesely has a 4 million dollar expiring so I guess that's something. But that's it. None of the reserves we've got have value because NBA teams can get equal or better off vet min deals.

But a trade takes a willing partner and most teams will do anything to hang on to high quality bigs. You need a confluence of events, like the top domino falling a certain way and pushing solid bigs out of their current situations.

I still think DeMarcus Cousins is our guy. But I definitely don't like the idea of giving up Otto, Beal, or Wall for him. I'd like to get a deal done around draft picks and expirings or Nene for Cousins. But I doubt Sacramento moves him before next offseason since the new FO will want to see what they've got with him.

If I were the GM, I'd hang on to Ariza and Okafor to use their expirings to save money this summer, offer a max deal to Cousins to force Sacramento to match, which might push them into doing a S&T. Give them Nene and lots of draft picks and anything but Wall, Beal, Porter.

 

Right now the team has gone about a fairly bland cookie cutter design: get a 1, get a 2, get a 3 - through the draft. It's young and looking to develop. It's a cookie cutter viewpoint of the standard positions, PG, SG, Wing. Right now it's Wall, Beal and Porter and the crew.

They just took the BPA and it happened to yield a PG, SG, and forward. Their approach has been good IMO. Position doesn't matter as much as the skills they bring to the table, and we've got a well balanced trio whose skills compliment each other and create synergy. Wall must to play with shooters at the wings on offense. Wall doesn't need off dribble creators at those positions nearly as much. And ideally, the wings can thrive in low usage situations, facilitate offensive movement, and make people around them better to compensate for a lack of ISO scoring ability in the front court. Wall is very ball dominant and he's going to be a very high usage player down the line, off ball ability is key.

And again, Beal and Porter can play D and rebound well for their position. Their personalities are really compatible too creating an ideal, Spursian chemical mix. They are the kind of adhesive, stabilizing players that great teams are made from.

 

Anyway, just keep to what the team is already doing, fill out the starting 5, get a full fledged, the rest of the league notices him, type of Center. Even if the depth is blown to get him, you then rebuild depth with smart signings, rotational guys and through drafting properly.

Every team wants a C like that. But most don't have one. Including some brilliant teams like Miami and OKC, who've got trash at the position. If Wall, Beal, and Otto mature into a strong big 3, the team will win a lot of games no matter what. Having a decent body at C who can rebound and defend his position is all they'll need.

 

For better or worse, the Wiz franchise is Wall, Beal & Porter. I believe that nothing should be off limits from trying to get a "superstar" Center or at least allstar talent C or PF, likewise.

 

Wall is a superstar. Over the final two months of the season you got a look at what he can really do. During March he was the second best player in the NBA to LeBron, really just a force of nature. He's capable of being a top five player regardless of position once he reaches his prime because he's a transcendent talent. You're going to get to a point where there will only be a couple of players that you could deal Wall for and get back something better in return, he's off the table.

He's also the player we've built everything around. Lose him and the team would immediately become obsolete. 5-28.

I would also be very hesitant to deal Porter or Beal. I think they're two of the best prospects to have come out at their position in the last five years. Beal looked like the best SG in the NBA under 23 last season and I think you're going to get to a point where he'll be the second best SG in the NBA behind Harden when he hits his mid to late 20s. The position is not strong league wide and few teams have difference makers there.

Also, I think Porter is going to be far more valuable than Rudy Gay. I think he'll be a flat out better all around player than Gay very soon. But mainly, Gay is a net negative for a team because of his atrocious contract. He's a high usage, poor efficiency scorer that is not a notable rebounder, defender, or playmaker. Porter will be the opposite. You don't win with players and contracts like Rudy Gay. You win in spite of him or you lose.

I actually think Porter is the best SF prospect to come along since Durant in 2007. The list isn't actually very good since then, with Paul George looking like the only potential perennial AS of the bunch. Maybe MKG gets there, we'll see. It's hard for a Gerald Wallace like guy who isn't a premier slasher and can't shoot at all to put up the scoring numbers to make regular AS appearances. Porter is better than Harrison Barnes, Tobias Harris, Moe Harkless, Nic Batum, etc.

And, though he may not be the ball handler or defender George is, I think he can get respectably close. And I think Porter is a much more instinctive and natural offensive player than George. In general, Porter is much more highly regarded coming into the league than George was. You've got testimonials like Boeheim's calling Porter the best player in Big East history.

Also, you don't compare Porter to players like LeBron today. LeBron is going to be an old player when Porter reaches his prime. He's almost ten years older than him. You compare Porter against the other forwards in classes surrounding 2013 because that's really who he'll be competing with throughout his career.

Didn't say that free agency was the only way to get it done. In fact, I basically think only in terms of the draft, in general. That's a fairly bland way to think when it comes to the NBA. The way the NBA operates with crazy trades and swaps and money and this that and the other, it's a league geared more toward the whimsical and supercilious than the pragmatic and frugal, which defines the NFL and it's draft oriented mantra.

Most of the good teams are built through the draft in the NBA. You typically need to be successful the draft to get high value, efficient rookie contracts necessary to build a quality team.

The bad teams and pretenders with unsustainable builds are the ones who are typically built through risky trades and big UFA acquisitions. San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Chicago, and Indiana were all built through the draft. Memphis built its team with draft picks and trades for prospects whom they patiently developed themselves. The Knicks, Nets, and Lakers built Frankenteams through FA and costly trades that are destined to crash and burn in ruinous fashion and get everyone in volved fired.

Miami is the exception, not the rule when it comes to building through FA and S&Ts. And they are only a legit title contender because they've got the greatest player since MJ in his prime. They'd be a pretender like Brooklyn or New York too if they didn't have him. And moves like the ones those teams made are judged a success only if the team wins a ring. Miami's build is also unsustainable at this point and soon they won't be able to contend for rings any more even with LeBron unless they do a significant remodel around him.

Also, the circumstances that let it come together for Miami are extremely--repeat--extremely, unlikely to ever come about again. Miami needed things like three All NBA guys and Olympians coming into the league together in the same draft class; said players to be unhappy with their situations; said players signing identical extensions so they hit UFA together; said players each playing different, complimentary positions; and said players wanting to play together with two of those superstars willing to take a back seat . And they had to have total roster flexibility to fit three near max deals in at once. At the time, Miami had only two players under contract, both on rookie deals, one a second rounder. And Miami also already had one of those superstars on their team so they had the ability to offer him the special contract already and didn't have to do a sign and trade for him. They did not have the assets to make another S&T after they used everything to get Bosh and LeBron. So that third star would have had to take an enormous pay cut to move to Miami. A pay cut that no one else has ever done.

And the new luxury tax is going to make team building with max and near max deals even more difficult from here on out.

Long story short, it's safe to say there will never be another Miami situation again and theirs is not a viable or repeatable team building strategy.

So the draft is still your best option for building a team from the ground up.

Edited July 2, 2013 by stevemcqueen1

[RemoveSnyder]

One point steve, I was not suggesting trading Wall, Beal or Porter, the opposite actually. I think you misunderstood me. I can see how my words that you quoted may have been interpreted that way. The train of thought was one that continued talking about how depth and rotation players are expendable. When I said the team is Wall, Beal & Porter, that's literally what I mean, don't touch that. The words 'nothing should stand in the way' were appropriated toward the various parts of depth.

 

I do disagree slightly about your points of BPA. If the Org's philosophy was a pure BPA, they would have Kawhi Leonard instead of JV. If they were BPA oriented again in 2011, they would have Kenneth Faried instead of Singleton. And that's not in retrospect, the fans on the very boards were pushing Leonard's name prior to the 2011 draft. In remembering, I do think a large contingent wanted Singleton, they got their wish.

 

To that point, for example: I was told repeatedly on Bullets / Wiz boards, even the WaPo boards, pre-draft, that the Wiz "didn't need" Faried because they already had Booker.

 

Though those sentiments were presumably from fans of the Wiz on a message board, it however came from some of the more "prominent" types, the ones who like to tell others how things should happen. I pushed for Faried, wanted him and regardless of that, what happened in actuality from the Wiz front office was not BPA.

 

They passed on better talent.

...

 

And to continue that line of thought: 

 

I'm waiting for the time to pass when the very 6'8 to 6'10 scorer we are talking about, that pragmatic BPA, is shot down from consideration because someone or someones say: "we already have Porter, we don't need another wing," only to see the passed over player become a star. 

 

You see what I mean?

Folks will talk about how rare the big man, dominate centers are, how the odds and averages don't lend themselves to using a high pick on a center. They will also talk about how using a selection on a mid-first to late-first guy is such a long term development plan, yet you yourself was up in here draft day talking about trying to get a Big in the 2nd round. 

 

You see, I know you are looking for one, I know you too are tempted at grabbing not only a blue chipper but also an undervalued one as well, double your chances. That's exactly what I'm talking about, take two or three shots in the dark instead of just one. 

 

I mean it's a conundrum, no? If Porter is what folks say he is, what you say he is, what Ernie says he is, then we don't need to get another wing do we?

 

But could you say no to Wiggins (hypothetically, for example) because we just drafted our wing guy in Porter just last year?

 

You see this is what I'm getting at.

 

Obviously we are projecting not selecting in the lottery let alone the #1. But you should get the point I'm stressing.

stevemcqueen1, on 02 Jul 2013 - 11:07, said:

So the draft is still your best option for building a team from the ground up.

 

 

We obviously agree on drafting.

 

I'm perfectly fine with BPA. However, I don't think the wiz have been altogether purely pragmatic on BPA. If there happens to be a chance to draft a good Big where talent and value align with selection spot, then I don;t quite get the ruffled feathers act, especially when fans have shown a penchant for not selecting the BPA due to already filled roster spots, based upon presumption and projection (albeit misguided).

 

I seem to have touched a nerve at suggesting focusing the attention highly toward the Bigs. There is of course common sense that prevails. Yet saying I'd like to select a Big in the 1st round and move up again to select another one, doubling my chances - that doesn't seem unfathomable.

 

Obviously you grab the best player, even if that position is currently filled. Obviously you grab that player despite what the roster already holds. But you have already identified the roster strength from the 1 to the 3. Like I said and you said the core is the three of Wall, Beal and Porter. It seems pretty easy to say a draft focus that highlights the Bigs sounds in order. 

 

Just to throw out an example, double down on both Joel Embiid and Isaiah Austin, a twin tower express - obviously early.

[Skin'emAlive]

I think Maynor will come in and fair better than Price. Do i think Maynor is better than Price? No. Price is probably just as good on offense, but has much better defense. He is also a great teammate. However, I think Maynor is a better point guard who can get the others good looks.

 

Our second unit could end up looking like:

 

Maynor

Rice/Temple

Webster

unname free agent/Singleton

Seraphin

 

Ignoring the 4 position because i dont know who we will pick up after we resign Webster, two of those guys need to have good pg play to excel, and one of them has been pretty good at spot up shooting, and slashing to the basket. I think Maynor would be a better fit for this group than Price, so that is why im ok with this decision. Heck, i mght even be ok with Temple playing limited minutes in a shared pg role.

[No Excuses]

Don't let the name and local recognition fool you.

 

Eric Maynor
'12-'13: 9.3 PER .472 TS% 28.7 AST% 20.4 TO% 96 ORTg .008 WS/48 (64 games) 
'11-'12: 9.1 PER .466 TS% 24.1 AST% 21.3 TO% 96 ORTg .037 WS/48 (9 games) 
'10-'11: 11.7 PER .485 TS% 30.3 AST% 17.7 TO% 104 ORTg .061 WS/48 (82 games) 
'09-'10: 11.8 PER .478 TS% 31.5 AST% 17.5 TO% 103 ORTg .071 WS/48 (81 games)

A.J. Price
'12-'13: 12.4 PER .501 TS% 26.4 AST% 12.7 TO% 105 ORTg .084 WS/48 (57 games) 
'11-'12: 11.5 PER .454 TS% 23.9 AST% 14.5 TO% 100 ORTg .063 WS/48 (44 games) 
'10-'11: 10.7 PER .454 TS% 22.7 AST% 13.0 TO% 95 ORTg .020 WS/48 (50 games) 
'09-'10: 14.0 PER .530 TS% 20.5 AST% 13.2 TO% 102 ORTg .065 WS/48 (56 games)

 

Yippie.

[No Excuses]

It's funny that our #1 priority on opening day of FA signings is to go after an often injured and below average back up PG. As if Eric Maynor would not have been available to sign a month from now. Better yet, we give him a player option for year two. 

Edited July 2, 2013 by No Excuses

[StillUnknown]

Adrian WojnarowskiVerified account
‏@WojYahooNBA
Martell Webster has reached agreement on a four year deal with Washington, league source tells Y!

[Destino]

Adrian WojnarowskiVerified account

‏@WojYahooNBA

Martell Webster has reached agreement on a four year deal with Washington, league source tells Y!

I really hope it's for less than the full MLE. He's got one hell of a injury history.

[StillUnknown]

Adrian WojnarowskiVerified account

‏@WojYahooNBA

Martell Webster has reached agreement on a four year deal with Washington, league source tells Y!

I really hope it's for less than the full MLE. He's got one hell of a injury history.

Adrian WojnarowskiVerified account

‏@WojYahooNBA

Martell Webster deal will be four years, $22 million, source tells Y!

 

 

I like Martell, but I don't like that number

[@DCGoldPants]

Kevin Jones @Mr_KevinJones

Martell Webster got paid. 4-years $22 million. Can he really replicate what he did last season while having Otto on the court? #Wizards

 

sigh

[StillUnknown]

maybe we can package Ariza and some of our trash to get a stretch 4?

 

if things stay the same, Martell will probably see more time at the 2 than the 3

Edited July 2, 2013 by StillUnknown

[Destino]

Adrian WojnarowskiVerified account

‏@WojYahooNBA

Martell Webster deal will be four years, $22 million, source tells Y!

 

 

I like Martell, but I don't like that number

Yeah by drafting Porter we're hoping Martel is a good backup.  That's a lot for a good backup with a long injury history.  That effectively ends the wizards free agency activity right?  BAE went to Maynor and MLE to Webster.  I assume they still have a tiny amount of space for Temple and some other scrub to get the roster to 15.  

[StillUnknown]

Adrian WojnarowskiVerified account
‏@WojYahooNBA
The fourth year of Martell Webster's $22 million deal with Washington has a partial guarantee, league source tells Y!

[Destino]

maybe we can package Ariza and some of our trash to get a stretch 4?

 

if things stay the same, Martell will probably see more time at the 2 than the 3

 

I'm hoping they can get someone for Ariza and Okafor.  Wouldn't mind trading Nene and a protected pick for David Lee either.  Doubt the Warriors would go for it though.  

[SuperBash]

22 mil? Well there goes max money for 2014. I reallllllllyyyyyy hope we deal Ariza for a solid front court piece. Ton of depth at SF but depth at PF/C isn't really important to Ernie, I guess.

[StillUnknown]

maybe we can package Ariza and some of our trash to get a stretch 4?

 

if things stay the same, Martell will probably see more time at the 2 than the 3

 

I'm hoping they can get someone for Ariza and Okafor.  Wouldn't mind trading Nene and a protected pick for David Lee either.  Doubt the Warriors would go for it though.  

 

I'm not sure about trading Okafor. He's our best interior defender by far. If we're going to sell out for defense, Okafor or an Okafor like presence is necessary.

 

I'm not sure adding a temporary stretch 4 from the available pool is worth more to the on court product than keeping Okafor around for what they believe is a run at the 7th or 8th seed.

[No Excuses]

Korver got 15M for 3 years and Webster is better so it's not a bad deal. The partial guarantee on the fourth year is good. Provided he stays healthy, he'll be one of the best back ups in the league because he's fully capable of being a starter on a good team. 

[Destino]

22 mil? Well there goes max money for 2014. I reallllllllyyyyyy hope we deal Ariza for a solid front court piece. Ton of depth at SF but depth at PF/C isn't really important to Ernie, I guess.

 

Nene, Webster, Porter, and Maynor are still the only contracts the wizards have to pay out in 2013-14.  Wall, Beal, Vesely, Seraphin, Booker, and Singleton are all restricted free agents or club options.  Okafor and Ariza are free agents.  The Wizards should have cap room to work with that season.  Let's say you give Wall a max extension and pick up Beal's option:

 

 

Player Salary 2013-14

Wall  15,000,000

Nene  13,000,000

Webster 5,500,000

Beal 4,505,280

Porter  3,725,400

Maynor  2,106,720  

 

Total 43,837,400

 

Obviously the team would still need to sign 9 more players, including a starter center, but there is plenty of cap space to work with even with Wall getting a max deal unless I'm missing something.  

Edited July 2, 2013 by Destino

[Hersh]

22 mil? Well there goes max money for 2014. I reallllllllyyyyyy hope we deal Ariza for a solid front court piece. Ton of depth at SF but depth at PF/C isn't really important to Ernie, I guess.

 

Nene, Webster, Porter, and Maynor are still the only contracts the wizards have to pay out in 2013-14.  Wall, Beal, Vesely, Seraphin, Booker, and Singleton are all restricted free agents or club options.  Okafor and Ariza are free agents.  The Wizards should have cap room to work with that season.  Let's say you give Wall a max extension and pick up Beal's option:

 

 

Player Salary 2013-14

Wall  15,000,000

Nene  13,000,000

Webster 5,500,000

Beal 4,505,280

Porter  3,725,400

Maynor  2,106,720  

 

Total 43,837,400

 

Obviously the team would still need to sign 9 more players, including a starter center, but there is plenty of cap space to work with even with Wall getting a max deal unless I'm missing something.  

Plus a first rounder at $3 million. So maybe $11 million to sign 8 players. Depending on Rice's contract.

This is why EG is so bad and why the Wiz always suck. Overpaying for players this team doesn't need. I don't mind the Webster contract if they didn't just draft Porter and Rice. Now we are 4 deep at SF and 1 deep at PF and C depending on who is hurt.

If no trades brings in a big man....

[Destino]

Plus a first rounder at $3 million. So maybe $11 million to sign 8 players. Depending on Rice's contract.

This is why EG is so bad and why the Wiz always suck. Overpaying for players this team doesn't need. I don't mind the Webster contract if they didn't just draft Porter and Rice. Now we are 4 deep at SF and 1 deep at PF and C depending on who is hurt.

If no trades brings in a big man....

 

You expect a top 5 draft pick?  

 

Ariza will either be traded or allowed to expire so that really only gives the Wizards Porter and Webster at SF. Singleton is horrible and apparently now a PF. Same goes for Vesely. Also depending on when we extend Wall his contract can go over the cap and the Wizards would still be well below the luxury tax line of around 73 million.

 

[Hersh]

Plus a first rounder at $3 million. So maybe $11 million to sign 8 players. Depending on Rice's contract.

This is why EG is so bad and why the Wiz always suck. Overpaying for players this team doesn't need. I don't mind the Webster contract if they didn't just draft Porter and Rice. Now we are 4 deep at SF and 1 deep at PF and C depending on who is hurt.

If no trades brings in a big man....

 

You expect a top 5 draft pick?  

 

Ariza will either be traded or allowed to expire so that really only gives the Wizards Porter and Webster at SF. Singleton is horrible and apparently now a PF. Same goes for Vesely. Also depending on when we extend Wall his contract can go over the cap and the Wizards would still be well below the luxury tax line of around 73 million.

 

Whatever the first round pick cost is I don't know but Ariza is under contract for next year so for at least one year we are 4 deep at SF ANSI hadn't even counted singleton or vesley. It's kinda hilarious to me that we keep drafting and signing them. I'm not sure Ted goes over the Cap again.

[Burgold]

maybe we can package Ariza and some of our trash to get a stretch 4?

if things stay the same, Martell will probably see more time at the 2 than the 3

I hope not because that will mean that Beal'a a bum. Is 5 million a year really back up money in the nba? I really need to figure out how to engineer a late life growth spurt.

[Destino]

Whatever the first round pick cost is I don't know but Ariza is under contract for next year so for at least one year we are 4 deep at SF ANSI hadn't even counted singleton or vesley. It's kinda hilarious to me that we keep drafting and signing them. I'm not sure Ted goes over the Cap again.

Who are you counting as number 4? I have Webster, Porter, Ariza, Singleton, and Vesely. Glenn Rice Jr., from what I've read is expected to play shooting guard.

PG Wall - Maynor

SG Beal - Rice - Temple

SF Webster - Ariza - Porter

PF Nene - Booker - Singleton - Vesely

C Okafor - Seraphin

[Destino]

I hope not because that will mean that Beal'a a bum. Is 5 million a year really back up money in the nba? I really need to figure out how to engineer a late life growth spurt.

It's a lot of money for a guy the team is hoping will be a back up. Jamal Crawford, a much better 6th man, makes 5 million a year.  

[Renegade7]

I know it's not perfect, but we're a better team keeping Webster then letting him walk. I can live with it.

[RonArtest15]

It was a good and necessary re-signing.  Also, after seeing the money being tossed around today, I don't feel bad about the offer Webster accepted  One thing is for sure, if you can shoot, you're going to get paid or be in high demand via trade.

 

Ariza almost certainly will be moved for a big.  We just need quality depth in the front court and I'll REALLY like how this team is shaping up.