The Official Washington Basketball Thread: Wizards, Mystics etc

[Mooka]

3 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

The likes of Wall and Beal are going to get tired of driving into a paint where their own 5 and the defensive 5 are already stationed in the paint and that's where you'll have issues.

 

The issue is that Wall has no one to dish the ball to in the paint when he's driving. Morris has to be facing the hoop with a set jumper and can't offensively cut to the basket while Gortat lost his hands. Mahinmi's clumsy ass was our best option this season to dump the ball off to in the paint.

 

Dwight's losing his hands too but hasn't completely lost it yet. 

 

[Gamebreaker]

2 hours ago, TryTheBeal! said:

 

Not gonna lie, these moves may set up pretty nicely for the Summer 19 FA season.

 

 

Ernie is playing y'all for suckers again.....Secret extension incoming...

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, No Excuses said:

Dwight Howard is going to give us nightly double doubles with multiple blocks at 5 mil a year. 

 

Ian Mahinmi riding the bench at his 16 million a year salary. Up there as one of the worst NBA contracts of all time.

 

Mahinmi's contract is horrible, but it's not even one of the worst contracts of 2016.

1 hour ago, PeterMP said:

It isn't hard to see where a Howard that doesn't set good picks, clogs the post, and has the defensive limitations that he has might be a net negative.

 

The rebounding and rim protection alone will ensure he's not a net negative.  Especially for what we're paying him.

[Going Commando]

This is the state of our roster and salary cap:

 

1.) Wall - $19.2 million, signed using Bird Rights

2.) Sato -  $3.1 million, signed using cap space

3.) Beal - $25.4 million, signed using Bird Rights

4.) Rivers - $12.7 million, acquired via trade

5.) Brown - $2.7 million, signed via draft pick exception

6.) Meeks - $3.5 million, signed via partial MLE

7.) Porter - $26 million, signed via Bird Rights

8.) Oubre - $3.2 million, signed via draft pick exception

9.) Morris - $8.6 million, acquired via trade

10.) Green - $2.7 million, signed via min contract exception

11.) Mahinmi - $15.9 million, signed via cap space

12.) Howard - $5.3 million, signed via full tax payer MLE

13.) Smith - $5.5 million, signed via cap space

14.) Bryant - $1.7 million, signed via min contract exception

 

Martell Webster - contract stretched, counts as $.8 million against the cap

 

Min contract hold of ~ 1 million.

 

Two-Way Contract: Devin Robinson.  Doesn't count against our cap.

 

Cap Figure = ~137 million.

 

Cap is estimated to be 102 million, luxury tax line at 124.  So right now we're about 13 million over the luxury tax line, with one more roster spot to fill.  Our only available exception left for filling the final roster spot is a min contract exception.

[Going Commando]

Looking at the depth chart,

 

- We have five guys who can play center - Howard, Mahinmi, Smith, Bryant, Morris

- four guys who can play PF - Morris, Green, Porter, Smith

- six guys who can play SF - Porter, Oubre, Brown, Meeks, Sato, Beal

- five guys who can play SG - Beal, Rivers, Brown, Sato, Meeks

- three guys who can run point - Wall, Sato, rivers

 

For our final roster spot we could use a wing who can play some PF too, or a combo guard who can run point in a pinch.

 

I still like Treveon Graham on a min contract for us.  Strong-bodied hustle guy who can play either wing spot and also play some PF in tiny line ups.

[PeterMP]

2 hours ago, Mooka said:

 

The issue is that Wall has no one to dish the ball to in the paint when he's driving. Morris has to be facing the hoop with a set jumper and can't offensively cut to the basket while Gortat lost his hands. Mahinmi's clumsy ass was our best option this season to dump the ball off to in the paint.

 

Dwight's losing his hands too but hasn't completely lost it yet. 

 

 

It is hard to drive to the basket if your 5 is sitting the post waiting for an entry pass.  That turns the whole focus of the defense to the side the ball is on and clogs up  the paint and pretty much eliminates the ability of your guards to drive.  That's what is going to happen if Howard is looking to get 10+ post ups a game.

 

I'm not going to claim that Gortat was a good floor spacer in the context of the current NBA, but he's at least three times as good as Howard.  Last year, he shot more for a higher percentage from distance than Howard ever has in his career.  And Gortat certainly wasn't looking to be fed the ball in the post as a primary offensive weapon.

 

Even if Howard is willing to step out of the post, it is hard to run an offense where you are depending on your 5 isn't a good pick setter and their only role in the offense is to dive or roll to the basket.  Wall's defender is coming with him, your 5's defender is going to be waiting, and your 5 is some times going to get in Wall's way and essentially act as an extra defender.

 

If Howard's contribution to the offense is to stand 8 feet from the basket and dive to the basket on drives/shots, the offense is going to suffer.  It'll suffer less than if Howard is actively trying to get touches on traditional post ups, but the net effect will be a negative.

 

Really, for the Wizards there are 4 options:

 

1.  Howard wants 10+ touches as a traditional post player, which he's gotten for a lot of his career.  He looks to post with frequency and bogs down the spacing and movement of the whole offense.  That's a huge negative for the Wizards offense.

 

2.  Howard is a poor pick setter and the best option is to station him 8 feet from the basket and use him as a dive player.  That limits the ability of players to drive and minimizes ball movement.  I think the offense will not be as good as it has been.

 

3.  Howard is an offensive plus and takes an active roll in setting good picks off and on the ball.  (This essentially makes him Capella.)

 

4.  Howard is a huge offensive plus and takes an active roll in setting good picks off and on the ball and is a good passer.  (I haven't really watched Howard play closely for years much, but I always thought he was an under rated post passer when he was in Orlando.  I'm not sure how he'd do as a higher pass making passes off people rolling from his picks and partly that will depend on how well other players do at reading the defense and rolling vs. popping.).

 

If 1 happens, the Wizards will be worse than last year (assuming comparable injuries), and the locker room might explode.  If 4 happens, the Wizards become as good as any team in the East.

1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Mahinmi's contract is horrible, but it's not even one of the worst contracts of 2016.

 

The rebounding and rim protection alone will ensure he's not a net negative.  Especially for what we're paying him.

 

If the offense bogs down and is actually worse, ending up taking more bad shots can easily off set any gain in defense and rebounding.

Edited July 4, 2018 by PeterMP

[PeterMP]

As much as there were issues with Gortat, Gortat always understood is role in the offense and that was he essentially had no role in generating his own offense and his offense came from other people making plays.

 

If Howard comes in with an attitude that he has a role in generating his own offense, there could be issues.

[Mooka]

28 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

It is hard to drive to the basket if your 5 is sitting the post waiting for an entry pass.  That turns the whole focus of the defense to the side the ball is on and clogs up  the paint and pretty much eliminates the ability of your guards to drive.  That's what is going to happen if Howard is looking to get 10+ post ups a year.

 

You gotta watch John Wall and the Wiz play more to understand. 

 

Everything is off his penetration and Wall drives with pure power/speed/athleticism ala Lebron James or Russell Westbrook. There's no smart basketball here, no real offense. (besides when Wall was out hurt) The Wizards don't run any plays besides the pick and roll. 

 

Howard slowing up the offense or clogging up the lane is one thing; Gortat not being able to catch the basketball is a far bigger issue. 

[Destino]

Howard isn’t coming here to be Gortat and not take possessions away from anyone.  The Wizards want Howard getting a large number of shots at the rim.  The issue is what kind of shots he’s getting.  Brooks and Wall have to find a way to get him comfortable in pick n roll situations.  If they can his scoring totals will sky rocket because he’s a much faster and stronger finisher than Marcin.  I think he’s still got enough bounce for lobs too.  

 

The question is can the wizards convince him to move his feet?  Recent history suggests the answer is no, but you never know.  He’s never played with a point guard nearly as good as Wall.  He might find that he likes the taste of spoon fed buckets.  

[Burgold]

55 minutes ago, Mooka said:

 

Everything is off his penetration and Wall drives with pure power/speed/athleticism ala Lebron James or Russell Westbrook. There's no smart basketball here, no real offense. (besides when Wall was out hurt) The Wizards don't run any plays besides the pick and roll. 

 

 

Does this maybe explain why the Wizards did so much better (recordwise) last year, when Wall was out and Sato was playing point guard? Does this justify Gortat's complaint, even if it doesn't justify Gortat? Are the Wizards smarter/Are they able to run more plays when Wall isn't leading them?

 

If so, I hope Wall adapts this off season. He's clearly a better athlete and player than Sato. He should be able to incorporate what Sato brought to the team that Wall lacked.

[PeterMP]

1 hour ago, Mooka said:

 

You gotta watch John Wall and the Wiz play more to understand. 

 

Everything is off his penetration and Wall drives with pure power/speed/athleticism ala Lebron James or Russell Westbrook. There's no smart basketball here, no real offense. (besides when Wall was out hurt) The Wizards don't run any plays besides the pick and roll. 

 

Howard slowing up the offense or clogging up the lane is one thing; Gortat not being able to catch the basketball is a far bigger issue. 

 

No.  As hard as it is to play that kind of offense with somebody that can't catch, it is harder to play that kind of offense with somebody that doesn't even understand that their primary role is stay out of the guards way and allow them to drive.

 

The first person at least allows for an open lane for the guard to drive.  The second person clogs up the lane and denies the ability of the guard to even initiate the drive.  That's going to kill the offense and frustarte the guard.

 

Gortat at least understood he wasn't as good of an offensive option as Wall and his primary job was to stay out of Wall's way.  If Howard thinks him in a traditional post position is at least as good of an option to "run" the offense as Wall from the perimeter with a clear path to the basket, there are going to be big problems.

 

If you look at James and Westbrook, they've never played with a 5 that did not understand their primary job was to stay out of their way.  That's the number one requirement of the 5s they've played with.

 

(Now, I'm not saying Howard will take the attitude that him with the ball in a traditional post position is as good an option as Wall with the ball on the perimeter with a clear path to the basket.  But it wouldn't surprise me if he does.  It is certainly the attitude he's had at every other stop in his NBA career.  Maybe at this point in time in his career and playing with a guard as good as Wall, he'll change.  But I wouldn't be shocked if he doesn't.)

1 hour ago, Destino said:

Howard isn’t coming here to be Gortat and not take possessions away from anyone.  The Wizards want Howard getting a large number of shots at the rim.  The issue is what kind of shots he’s getting.  Brooks and Wall have to find a way to get him comfortable in pick n roll situations.  If they can his scoring totals will sky rocket because he’s a much faster and stronger finisher than Marcin.  I think he’s still got enough bounce for lobs too.  

 

The question is can the wizards convince him to move his feet?  Recent history suggests the answer is no, but you never know.  He’s never played with a point guard nearly as good as Wall.  He might find that he likes the taste of spoon fed buckets.  

 

I'd even argue that him being involved in off ball picks and then dives to the basket would them.  But certainly if they can get him to be a quality pick and roller, that would be a plus (that would be somewhere in between option 2 and 3 above).

 

There's room in the Wizards offense to out right post Howard, if he'll set good picks and force teams to switch, him in the post against most guards is a win.

 

The key is he has to be willing to set good picks and move.

Edited July 4, 2018 by PeterMP

[Going Commando]

5 minutes ago, Burgold said:

Does this maybe explain why the Wizards did so much better (recordwise) last year, when Wall was out and Sato was playing point guard? Does this justify Gortat's complaint, even if it doesn't justify Gortat? Are the Wizards smarter/Are they able to run more plays when Wall isn't leading them?

 

They did so much better without Wall?  They were 20-21 without him and 23-18 with him.  I think you're confusing not having the bottom completely fall out as usual with actually being better.  We were never better without Wall, that was a dumb story line.

[Burgold]

17 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

They did so much better without Wall?  They were 20-21 without him and 23-18 with him.  I think you're confusing not having the bottom completely fall out as usual with actually being better.  We were never better without Wall, that was a dumb story line.

Nah, it's paying incomplete attention. I remember the Wiz having a losing record before Wall was shelved, then they went on quite a tear without him (which is where/why the whole Everyone Eats controversy came about). They must have tailed off at the end.

[CrypticVillain]

7 minutes ago, Burgold said:

Nah, it's paying incomplete attention. I remember the Wiz having a losing record before Wall was shelved, then they went on quite a tear without him (which is where/why the whole Everyone Eats controversy came about). They must have tailed off at the end.

Man... The Wizards didn't even do much different, teams were just treating Sato like he was Wall. Once they realized that they only had to mainly focus on Beal, they adjusted quickly and we were going down quick. 

[PeterMP]

48 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

They did so much better without Wall?  They were 20-21 without him and 23-18 with him.  I think you're confusing not having the bottom completely fall out as usual with actually being better.  We were never better without Wall, that was a dumb story line.

 

They also played a soft schedule the first part of the year (when he was healthy).  I'm not sure how the SoS compared in the 2nd half in the games he missed vs. being present, but I'd be curious to see those numbers adjusted by SoS.

[Renegade7]

5 hours ago, PeterMP said:

 

They also played a soft schedule the first part of the year (when he was healthy).  I'm not sure how the SoS compared in the 2nd half in the games he missed vs. being present, but I'd be curious to see those numbers adjusted by SoS.

We had like top 3 worst SoS post all star game.

 

Discussion was had about whether the offense was really different or just not waiting for one player to generate the most assists.  Not having that scoring and fast break threat caught up to us.

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

I know it isn't popular to give Ted/EG any props but I'm going to do so regardless.

 

I give Ted some credit for being willing to go into luxury tax territory.

 

And yes, I'm going to give EG credit for putting together what looks like (on paper) a pretty talented team.

 

In fact, I'd argue that this is the most talented Wizards team I've ever seen.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[StillUnknown]

1 hour ago, BRAVEONAWARPATH said:

I know it isn't popular to give Ted/EG any props but I'm going to do so regardless.

 

I give Ted some credit for being willing to go into luxury tax territory.

 

And yes, I'm going to give EG credit for putting together what looks like (on paper) a pretty talented team.

 

In fact, I'd argue that this is the most talented Wizards team I've ever seen.

 

We should be better, but I also talked myself into offseason moves in the past.

 

Good thing is that there will be no middle ground in this dwight ****. It will either excel or burn in glorious fashion

 

As for giving grunfeld credit? Nah, he owe me about 4 productive offseasons before i think of uttering anything positive about him. I'm still looking for a way to plant a narcotic on him

 

Brooks might need a psychologist by the end of the year. I don't think he's built to handle egos

Edited July 5, 2018 by StillUnknown

[Going Commando]

42 minutes ago, BRAVEONAWARPATH said:

I know it isn't popular to give Ted/EG any props but I'm going to do so regardless.

 

I give Ted some credit for being willing to go into luxury tax territory.

 

And yes, I'm going to give EG credit for putting together what looks like (on paper) a pretty talented team.

 

In fact, I'd argue that this is the most talented Wizards team I've ever seen.

 

I agree with you.  I didn't expect Ted to be willing to spend so much on the team.  Ted was a spending hawk during the 2011 CBA who was the leader in pushing for a much more punitive luxury tax.  And unlike some of the other tax teams from last year, we didn't go on a long playoff run with a bunch of home games to make back some of the money spent on payroll and tax.

 

I too give him credit for spending to keep this group together, and to add the role players necessary to give us a chance.  Our past FA signings haven't worked out, and it's cost ownership dearly.  I don't know how they're financing basketball operations, but we're starting to act like a real NBA team--spending luxury tax, building a modern practice facility, acquiring a G-League affiliate.  Better late than never.

 

I have more mixed feelings about Ernie.  I think Ernie is a weak GM, and that he sets a tone of mediocrity and underachievement for the organization with his weak leadership.  But a lot of his roster moves are solid.  I don't know how our front office is structured, and how they make personnel decisions, but they've done a decent job.  I worry about locker room chemistry, but I too think this is one of the better on-paper teams we've had.

 

My major criticism of the FO is that we've made too many panic trades with our draft picks, and this goes to the heart of the major mistakes that have crippled us.

 

When we panic and feel like we have to make moves to keep up with the Joneses, that is when we make our worst mistakes.  Ian Mahinmi, Andrew Nicholson, and Jason Smith were panic-signings where the FO admitted that they felt like they had to do something for the fan base after selling us on the possibility of signing Durant for so long and striking out on Horford too.  Very costly.  Another instance was trading our first for Gortat after Okafor went down.  We were so desperate to turn the corner and make the playoffs that we traded a first for a guy who was an expiring.  Maybe we don't extend Gortat if he doesn't first get a taste of playing here for a season.  But not having draft picks adds up and the results are thin benches and aging, expensive front courts.  Even worse was trading the first round pick to dump Nicholson and get a three month rental of Bojangles in a season where we were never realistically in contention.

 

In the NBA, roster mistakes are super costly.

 

That's why I give credit to the FO for their restraint this offseason.  It would have been easy to panic coming off such a disappointing season.  God knows there was pressure from the fanbase for major changes.  If we were in charge, we would have ****ed things up so badly, judging by some of the god awful consensus ideas the fanbase produced.  Trade Otto for crap.  Trade Beal for crap.  Trade Wall for crap.  Trade Oubre and Sato for crap.  Trade for a damaged goods DeMarcus Cousins.  Fill the front court with drug addicts.  We are awful at this and I include myself in that assessment.  We panicked and were ready to quit on this build, but I believe:

 

1 - It's worthwhile to field competitive teams even in a monopolar NBA era where nobody can beat Golden State no matter what they do.  I know we're never going to win a championship, but we need to build our fanbase and develop a good culture and some organizational pride, and that requires consistently making the playoffs and going on runs.  We can't go back to living in the cellar for another 40 years.

 

2 - This build's foundation is still structurally sound, and that last year's issues were due to having too much money tied into an aged and ineffective front court and having our franchise player get hurt and miss half the year.  John can get healthy and we can fix the situation in the front court.  No, we're not going to win a championship with this group.  LeBron is literally the only player who could have given us a glimmer of hope to win one, and he's not coming here.  But we can still compete within our conference and maybe make a Finals run.  And this is what every fan of every team outside of Golden State has to be satisfied with.

[TradeTheBeal!]

As usual, Steve is right.

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

 

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

 

[RonArtest15]

But he's a sub 80% FT shooter.  Not a max player. 

[TradeTheBeal!]

If only his career FT% were 1.4 points higher...

[TradeTheBeal!]

How much of an upgrade is Austin Rivers over Ty Lawson and is it even worth having that conversation?

 

*paging Steve*