Will Cousins Play For The Skins In 2018

[Rufus T Firefly]

3 minutes ago, Paul Cumberland said:

 

gotta disagree...  that contract would be so non-bruce cause it would include 3 years fully guaranteed..  could actually work...  guarantee the last year for injury and he may just sign it...  personally, i'd like a longer term contract but hey...  get what you can get it if keeps him in the fold...

Nah, a franchise QB on the open market blows those numbers away. If he's not going on the open market, then you're Franchise tagging him, which means you're offering him an extension beyond that of 3 years, 65.5 mil, 40.5 gtd, which is Osweiler money, given inflation.

[BurgundyBooger]

What exactly would compel Kirk Cousins to stay here?

 

Other teams have money, some have better players, most have a superior front office structure. A few have all of the above and need a QB.

 

So why would Kirk stay?

[Paul Cumberland]

19 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Nah, a franchise QB on the open market blows those numbers away. If he's not going on the open market, then you're Franchise tagging him, which means you're offering him an extension beyond that of 3 years, 65.5 mil, 40.5 gtd, which is Osweiler money, given inflation.

 

I'd have to compute the numbers more but off the top of my head, if 40.5m fully guaranteed on a 3yr 65.5m contract for Osweiler [given inflation] is the number then that's only a little over 20m per year which includes ~13m per year prorated for signing bonus..  25m fully guaranteed in the 1st 3 years (75m overall) of only a 4 years contract would seem to be an increase, right?  Stafford got 50m signing bonus on a 5 year contract extension with 92m in guarantees...  extrapolating to 5 years, that'd be 100m for Kirk in 5 years... or am i miscalculating?

[ncr2h]

4 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

So now the ability win and play well in playoff games is an "arbitrary test"? I'd say that's a pretty important factor when talking about an NFL QB...seeing as how that's the entire goal of teams playing.

 

Flacco's numbers were pedestrian/bad in playoff appearances in his rookie and second year. Since then he's been damn good in playoff games.

 

Total playoff numbers:  25 TD, 10 INT

 

6 of those INTs came in playoff games during his rookie and second year which I'll probably give him a bit of a pass on since he was still new to the NFL. Since then he's had 24 TDs to 4 INTs in playoff games. If you think that is pedestrian, I really don't know what to tell you. 

 

Flacco is a guy who overall is not a great QB, especially statistically speaking. However, he seems to be a guy who shows up well when it matters (aka playoff games). Kirk seems to be the opposite. He has excellent statistics in the regular season in general, but (so far) has tended to not show up well when it matters most...in playoff games or must win games to get into the playoffs. Sorry if you don't like it, but to me that's a problem. 

 

Sure, if we cut 1/3 of Flacco's sample it suddenly looks good.  And if we pretend that there were no must win games other than the playoff games, he looks good.  And if we just look at TDs and INTs, he looks good.

 

But we don't do that for Kirk, so it's not an apples-to-apples comparison.  Rather, it's a comparison of one player's play through a microscope and the other player's play from a huge distance.

 

Why are you so focused on ignoring Flacco's first two seasons in the playoffs?  The fact is that 40% of Joe Flacco's playoff wins came in his first three seasons, and he was absolutely dreadful in those games.  Kirk has only played significant time in one playoff game, so ignoring the early part of Flacco's playoff resume is pretty head-scratching.  Is playing well under pressure an innate ability?  That seems to be what you're saying.  But if that's the case, why ignore the first 40% of Joe Flacco's playoff career?  If it can be developed over time - which is possibly why it took Flacco forever to become good in the playoffs - then why not extend a little more courtesy to Kirk, whose regular season numbers would at least hint that there is potential for him to do anything that Flacco can do.

 

Why do we only focus on Flacco's playoff games, ignoring all the games that either (a) he choked in but his defense carried him and they still made the playoffs, and (b ) he choked and his team missed the playoffs?  In 2009, his top ranked defense snuck into the playoffs at 9-7 thanks to his week 17 performance of 11/19 for 102 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 4 sacks.  In his first 4 years in the league, his numbers in December were awful - you would be grilling Cousins if he failed to put up 175 yards in 9 of his first 14 Dec/Jan regular season games, which is what Flacco did.  They could have made the playoffs in 2013 and 2016, but he laid 2 eggs in each of those seasons' final two regular season games (they lost by a combined 61-133 score differential, with Flacco going for 2 TDs and 7 INTs and no games with an AY/A above a mere 6.0), torpedoing their playoff dreams.  Why do you let that slide for Flacco, but not Cousins?

 

Finally, why just look at TDs and INTs?  Cousins had 1 TD and 0 INTs in his playoff game.  Did he play well?  There is so much more to evaluating a QB than TDs, INTs, and wins.  Please use more all-encompassing stats like ANY/A, DYAR, etc.

[Rufus T Firefly]

3 minutes ago, Paul Cumberland said:

 

I'd have to compute the numbers more but off the top of my head, if 40.5m fully guaranteed on a 3yr 65.5m contract for Osweiler [given inflation] is the number then that's only a little over 20m per year which includes ~13m per year prorated for signing bonus..  25m fully guaranteed in the 1st 3 years (75m overall) would seem to be an increase, right?  Stafford got 50m signing bonus on a 5 year contract extension with 92m in guarantees...  extrapolating to 5 years, that'd be 100m for Kirk in 5 years... or am i miscalculating?

I don't think you're following. If you tag him, then he signs it and has 1 year 34.5 mil in the bank. That means your 4 year/100 mil offer is really a 3 year/ 65.5 mil offer. SO you're offering him less than 22 mil per year. You think he takes that? Rather than play a year and go on the market? Not the slightest of chances.

 

Or, again, you don't tag him and he can sell himself to the highest bidder. And if you don't think he can at least get the Stafford deal when every QB needy team is bidding on him, then I guess we'll just disagree.

[squatch66]

4 hours ago, WelshSkinsFan said:

 

I see this all the time and I have no idea what it is people are seeing with Stafford, nice deep ball but ultimately a gunslinger who loses accuracy for large periods and clearly after all these years of coming up small in big games is no Top 5 QB.  I would happily pay Kirk more for the simple reason that by any objective assessment he is the superior player.

 

http://www.nfl.com/photoessays/0ap3000000836634

 

Some good stuff in there. My favorite:

 

Comeback king

Matthew Stafford has seven more late game victories than any other quarterback over the last five seasons. The eight he accomplished last season set a single-season NFL record. With 25 career fourth quarter comebacks, Stafford has the most fourth quarter comebacks in the NFL since 2009.

 

I'm sure it offends a bunch of people here but I'd take Stafford over Kirk without hesitation. Stafford just had the misfortune of getting drafted into the suck that was the Lions.

 

I like Kirk, but I'm not willing to make him the highest paid guy in the history of the league. If we had a **** ton of cap space like the Jets then sure I'd say give him a front loaded deal that we can absorb and then build but it's not happening here. I've just resigned myself to the fact that he's gone and am looking at who can come in to replace him.

 

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, ncr2h said:

 

 

So Joe Flacco spent his first year in the playoffs playing at a similar level to Jamarcus Russell.  His team managed to win 2 games because they had the #3 ranked defense by points, #2 by yards, and #1 by turnovers.  In 3 games he managed just 437 passing yards, 1 TD, and 3 INTs.  He averaged 5.8 yards per pass attempt, so even when he wasn't throwing picks he was barely moving the ball.  His defense forced 8 turnovers in the two games they won.  In his career, Kirk is 2-0 in games in which his defense forces at least 4 turnovers, and 7-3 in games in which his defense forces 3+ (7-1 since the Tampa game in 2015).

 

 

I am not going to try to debate you that Flacco is a better QB than Cousins. But you cant use his rookie year in this argument either. The fact is Flacco was incredible in the playoffs for their last Super Bowl run. That fact isnt deniable. I would love to give Kirk a chance to get there again. He certainly wasnt magnificent in his first try in the playoffs. 

[Paul Cumberland]

6 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

I don't think you're following. If you tag him, then he signs it and has 1 year 34.5 mil in the bank. That means your 4 year/100 mil offer is really a 3 year/ 65.5 mil offer. SO you're offering him less than 22 mil per year. You think he takes that? Rather than play a year and go on the market? Not the slightest of chances.

 

Or, again, you don't tag him and he can sell himself to the highest bidder. And if you don't think he can at least get the Stafford deal when every QB needy team is bidding on him, then I guess we'll just disagree.

 

I wasn't considering tagging him... just offering a LTD...  @Alexa said 75m fully guaranteed on a 4-year 100m deal..  that's against the grain for Bruce since he only wants to ever give 2 years fully guaranteed..  if 3/4 of the deal is fully guaranteed, I'm thinking that may do the trick to keep him...  

[mistertim]

I'm not "ignoring" Flacco's first two years in the playoffs. I just said I would give him a bit of a pass since he was still so new to the NFL, as a rookie and then a second year player. Even taking those games into account he still has 25 TDs to 10 INTs in playoff games. As far as why I value TDs and INTs so much...its probably because that's how you win a game. I don't really care if a guy has mediocre ANY/A DYAR numbers in a game if he puts up 3-4 TDs and 0 INTs because that likely means that his team wins. I also don't care if a guy has a great ANY/A DYAR if he ends up with 0-1 TDs and 2-3 INTs because that likely means that his team loses. Those advanced metrics don't mean all that much if the QB can't get the ball into the end zone enough or throws too many picks.

[ncr2h]

24 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Yeah, chief, it's got nothing to do with 25 being a specific cutoff point. It has to do with being able to recognize that QBs take time to develop. If someone came in here and said that Cousins threw more INTs than TDs for the first three years of his career, then he must not be a very good QB, I'm sure you'd be fine with it.

 

Since  the 2010-2011 playoff runs, where Flacco threw 7 TDs and 2 INTs, scored 20 points or more in every game against good defenses, and had a passer rating of at least 95 in 3 of 4 games are being referred to by you as "sucking to an astonishing degree", it's clear you're happy to act like a clown and I won't waste any more time on this nonsense. 

 

Is "playing well in big games under the lights" an inherent skill or one that is developed over time?  If it is inherent, why did it take Flacco until his 8th game to start exhibiting it consistently?  If it can be developed over time, why should we assume that Cousins is done developing it?

 

I would respond to the INT/TD criticism of Cousins by stating that INTs and TDs are a laughingly incomplete measure of QB play.  If a QB passes for 10,000 yards in one game, but throws 2 INTs and fails to throw a single TD, did he have a bad game?  No.  His team probably won the game by 100 points, and it just happened to be the RB who scored the points.  That's an exaggerated example.  TDs and INTs happen on ~7% of a QB's pass attempts.  While we shouldn't ignore this 7% of the sample size, we also shouldn't elevate it to the point where it's our primary focus.  We need to look at everything - how many attempts did it take him to get those TDs and INTs.  Sacks tend to kill drives, give the other team field position, and potentially lead to fumbles - how frequently is the QB giving up sacks?  How many yards does the QB get on an average dropback?  This is important for keeping the chains moving, putting the team in a position to score, and keeping the defense off the field.

 

INTs and TDs are an especially poor stat over extremely small sample sizes, as many times they are not attributable to QB play but rather to fluky things like a great play by the WR/DB, a blown coverage, etc.  Over a very large sample size, the TDs and INTs become more important as the noise gets overwhelmed by the value that the QB himself is creating.

 

(I see now that I said that his 2011 playoff run was included in Flacco's bad run of play, which is incorrect.  2011 was his first season of playing well in the playoffs.  His 2008, 2009, and 2010 campaigns were all disasters that were partially salvaged by his defense.)

[mistertim]

24 minutes ago, BurgundyBooger said:

What exactly would compel Kirk Cousins to stay here?

 

Other teams have money, some have better players, most have a superior front office structure. A few have all of the above and need a QB.

 

So why would Kirk stay?

 

The only team out there who would likely be in the market for Kirk and that has better offensive players overall IMO is the Jags. Denver is about even with us there though their OL definitely is worse than ours. Jets and Browns? Please. SF? No way. Anyway, Denver has a bad cap situation so they wouldn't even be able to afford what he wants probably without getting rid of some of their other good players. I think they'll probably draft a QB since they'll be in the 5-7 pick range. 

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 Those advanced metrics don't mean all that much if the QB can't get the ball into the end zone enough or throws too many picks.

 

I agree. The only advanced metrics that matter are TD%, INT% and Redzone production numbers. The rest mean bubkis. I will give Kirk credit in the fact that he improved ALL of those numbers from last year. And I was saying that would be my measuring stick on what would change my mind about keeping him. Not only did he improve those numbers but he did it with basically no one at WR. All that still doesnt make Kirk worth paying him to be the highest payed player in the league. But that is what it will cost to keep him regardless.

2 minutes ago, ncr2h said:

 

  If a QB passes for 10,000 yards in one game, but throws 2 INTs and fails to throw a single TD, did he have a bad game? 

 

Yeah. But you cant use a made up stat to justify your point. We all know 10000 yards was a joke. But I would argue if a QB threw for 450 yards with 2 picks he could have had a bad game. When the yards come matters. If those 2 picks lead to 14 points and the QB is just getting garbage time yards then those yards dont mean anything.

[Rufus T Firefly]

3 minutes ago, Paul Cumberland said:

 

I wasn't considering tagging him... just offering a LTD...  @Alexa said 75m fully guaranteed on a 4-year 100m deal..  that's against the grain for Bruce since he only wants to ever give 2 years fully guaranteed..  if 3/4 of the deal is fully guaranteed, I'm thinking that may do the trick to keep him...  

And again, if you don't think he can do a lot better than that on the open market, then we are miles from agreement.

[Paul Cumberland]

And btw, I'm not in the least opposed to giving him a Stafford+ contract...  I was just thinking about the fully guaranteed aspect which I think is what's going to be needed..  That said, I don't think he's greedy... Just wants a fair market deal..  Guaranteed money plus, in his view, we're on the right path to building a championship team could actually lower his price tag..

[Rufus T Firefly]

28 minutes ago, BurgundyBooger said:

What exactly would compel Kirk Cousins to stay here?

 

Other teams have money, some have better players, most have a superior front office structure. A few have all of the above and need a QB.

 

So why would Kirk stay?

[ncr2h]

6 minutes ago, mistertim said:

I'm not "ignoring" Flacco's first two years in the playoffs. I just said I would give him a bit of a pass since he was still so new to the NFL, as a rookie and then a second year player. Even taking those games into account he still has 25 TDs to 10 INTs in playoff games. As far as why I value TDs and INTs so much...its probably because that's how you win a game. I don't really care if a guy has mediocre ANY/A DYAR numbers in a game if he puts up 3-4 TDs and 0 INTs because that likely means that his team wins. I also don't care if a guy has a great ANY/A DYAR if he ends up with 0-1 TDs and 2-3 INTs because that likely means that his team loses. Those advanced metrics don't mean all that much if the QB can't get the ball into the end zone enough or throws too many picks.

 

Just so we're clear -

 

QB A: 1/100, 1 yard, 1 TD, 0 INTs

QB B: 99/100, 10,000 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT

 

QB A had the better game in your opinion?

 

If not, then would you admit that there are a variety of factors that influence how a QB should be evaluated, with TDs and INTs being important but far from the only measure?  If you'll admit that, how would you feel about a stat that does exactly that?  It's called ANY/A, and it rewards and punishes a QB as follows:

 

+ 20 yards per TD

- 45 yards per INT

- all sack yards

 

In a way, it's a blended measure of all of the things that make up a QB's performance: yards, attempts, TDs, INTs, and sacks.  The only basic things missing would be fumbles.

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

 

I agree. The only advanced metrics that matter are TD%, INT% and Redzone production numbers. The rest mean bubkis. I will give Kirk credit in the fact that he improved ALL of those numbers from last year. And I was saying that would be my measuring stick on what would change my mind about keeping him. Not only did he improve those numbers but he did it with basically no one at WR. All that still doesnt make Kirk worth paying him to be the highest payed player in the league. But that is what it will cost to keep him regardless.

 

Yeah. But you cant use a made up stat to justify your point. We all know 10000 yards was a joke. But I would argue if a QB threw for 450 yards with 2 picks he could have had a bad game. When the yards come matters. If those 2 picks lead to 14 points and the QB is just getting garbage time yards then those yards dont mean anything.

 

What if he threw 450 yards and 2 INTs on 7 pass attempts?  That would be an excellent game - he would have 4 99 yard completions, 1 50 yard completion, and 2 INTs.  His team probably won the game because of his fantastic performance, and yet it seems like attempts don't matter at all in your evaluation of QBs?

[LetThePointsSoar]

11 hours ago, Burgold said:

As far as us running the ball, if I believe the commentary... we need some tight ends willing to get their noses dirty. Reed and Davis are contact adverse. Paul is willing, but may be too much of a tweener. That means as far as the current roster goes it's time to Sprinkle a little magic on the run game.

 

I see what you did there. And agreed. ?

[clskinsfan]

10 minutes ago, ncr2h said:

 

Just so we're clear -

 

QB A: 1/100, 1 yard, 1 TD, 0 INTs

QB B: 99/100, 10,000 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT

 

QB A had the better game in your opinion?

 

If not, then would you admit that there are a variety of factors that influence how a QB should be evaluated, with TDs and INTs being important but far from the only measure?  If you'll admit that, how would you feel about a stat that does exactly that?  It's called ANY/A, and it rewards and punishes a QB as follows:

 

+ 20 yards per TD

- 45 yards per INT

- all sack yards

 

In a way, it's a blended measure of all of the things that make up a QB's performance: yards, attempts, TDs, INTs, and sacks.  The only basic things missing would be fumbles.

 

What if he threw 450 yards and 2 INTs on 7 pass attempts?  That would be an excellent game - he would have 4 99 yard completions, 1 50 yard completion, and 2 INTs.  His team probably won the game because of his fantastic performance, and yet it seems like attempts don't matter at all in your evaluation of QBs?

 

Again. You are using stats to back your argument that are imaginary. What you are asking CANNOT happen so how can you  use it to help your argument?

[wolfsire]

He can't carry an offense when the times get tough. Not sure why we don't roll him out but, anyways................let him go and move on. The guy ain't no true Redskin. He's for sale in a big way which is odd considering he plays for an extremely valued franchise with a faithful, dedicated, loving fan base.. Since he's got no allegiance to Washington, let him go on his way. Don't let the door hit him in the ass and best of luck with that next o-line.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

3 minutes ago, wolfsire said:

He can't carry an offense when the times get tough. Not sure why we don't roll him out but, anyways................let him go and move on. The guy ain't no true Redskin. He's for sale in a big way which is odd considering he plays for an extremely valued franchise with a faithful, dedicated, loving fan base.. Since he's got no allegiance to Washington, let him go on his way. Don't let the door hit him in the ass and best of luck with that next o-line.

 

I sometimes wonder where folks that post like this get their news and information from, or where they've been the last 20+ years...

 

These are the folks that Bruce wrote his press release for.

[tmandoug1]

Bye......

[wolfsire]

7 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

 

I sometimes wonder where folks that post like this get their news and information from, or where they've been the last 20+ years...

 

These are the folks that Bruce wrote his press release for.

Well, I used to attend parades. I want to attend some more but it will never happen paying Kirk Cousins 30 million dollars a year. He's not Rodgers, He's not Brady. He's not Brees. He's mid-tier. I wonder about fans and their dream-worlds sometimes.

[wit33]

3 hours ago, petedaddy said:

 

Take a look at the games the Skins have lost this year and you'll see the defense played a leading role in most

 

Exactly, it’s how the NFL works for most part these days; each quarter, half and game is its own entity. 

 

1 fact remains true, the defense dominated 6-7 opponents and were a leading factor for victories. Good enough in today’s NFL to be a playoff type team. 

 

 

[Taylorcooley1]

29 minutes ago, tmandoug1 said:

Bye......

Where's ya goin?

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

14 minutes ago, wolfsire said:

Well, I used to attend parades. I want to attend some more but it will never happen paying Kirk Cousins 30 million dollars a year. He's not Rodgers, He's not Brady. He's not Brees. He's mid-tier. I wonder about fans and their dream-worlds sometimes.

That's fine and all, but you didn't really say any of that in the post I quoted.

 

Perhaps you should redirect your angst to the owner and FO that created this scenario though.  Just a thought...