Jay Gruden: Buy, Sell Or HOLD: 2017 edition

[goskins10]

3 hours ago, SWFLSkins said:

 

I edited the post for length, it made some really great points. I don't think I have it backwards that on issues fans can clearly see, he should easily be able to identify and work on as a Professional. This critique is not based on one game or one series. He has had a history of closing out halves and games poorly. Of coaching scared in the pinnacle moments. That is what separates guys like Gibbs, Parcells, Belichick and other greats. They all had a knack for pulling out a surprise genius play call to close out games. They were not 100% successful, and Jay really isn't 100% fail. 

 

My point is you don't get there overnight, but make baby steps to that level. As of this moment I don't see Jay progressing to that level, maybe he is just a little slower in developing. I hope he is not stuck in Neutral and can find First gear. I wanna like the guy for many reasons you laid out, in fact I do. 

 

Edit

 

I get your frustration. I really do. I don't disagree that his end of game clock management leaves a lot to be desired and it;s not a new thing. Totally agree. But honestly, there are coaches with SBs and much better pedigrees even without SBs that are as bad or worse. Not saying we should not want him to get better. But honestly that is really his only major flaw I see.

 

Yes, play calling can sometimes drive me nuts. But there is so much we do not know. There are literally plays called that have nothing to do with the game at hand. It's to set things up for your next opponent or even that opponent later in the day.

 

Yesterday was exactly the type of game we have lost the last 25 yrs. I even said as much in another thread (I think it was the prediction thread). Coming off 2 very good performances, off a bye, against a team we clearly have more talent than, at home and even Vegas thinking we should coast (not a scientific thing but thought I would throw it in). All you had to do was make it primetime game and it's a perfect storm. About as an automatic an L as you could get.... 

 

Yet despite giving up an early lead, losing our #2 CB with our #1 already out, many other injuries, some like TW playing through injuries, and then questionable clock management (still not sure I agree that the 3 runs were a bad call. An incompletion there gives them way too much time, but I can see the desire to be more aggressive also. I like to see teams throw on 2nd down there, but that's just me.), many others not exactly having their best day, the team found a way to make the plays they needed to win instead of lose. The PI on Garcon is one they could call all game. We know that from him being a Redskin. Was it bad timing for SF? Of course. But so was the Davis fumble that wasn't. The point is they found a way to win a game they have lost in recent history.

 

And I have to wonder if at least a few guys, and maybe even Gruden were taking a peak at next Monday's game. It's easy to say you have to ignore it. But it's human nature. Monday represents our chance to even be in the conversation for the division. A loss and the only PO chance is a WC.

 

That resilience and determination is a testament to both the players and the coaches, and that includes Jay. Again, I agree he has places to improve. But I am a solid buy for now and the foreseeable future despite those flaws. This team is slowly learning to win and is fighting hard for Jay. It's just not that easy to find that kind of leadership, especially when you throw in his having to deal with Bruce Allen and Dan Snyder. I honestly don't know how the guy has not lost all his hair and decided to become a monk dealing with those two egos for 3+ yrs. 

[TimmySmith]

2 hours ago, Veryoldschool said:

Gruden came into Daniel Snyder's totally out of control nut house and seizes control by benching the megabust, insists on playing Kirk Cousins who blossomed into one of the league leaders and the hapless Skins start winning and you want to bail on Gruden?  I guess we could do worse than Dan Snyder, one of you characters could own the Skins and be making the decisions.

 

Mediocrity is an improvement for the Skins and we have Gruden to thank for it.  I am hopeful this mediocrity is followed by excellence at some point despite the ownership. 

While your post is technically correct that Gruden wrested control of the team from Snyder, the reality of today's football is that excellence almost never follows mediocrity without change.  Most SB coaches have taken a team within 3 seasons or less, Gruden is on the clock.

[NewCliche21]

3 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

While your post is technically correct that Gruden wrested control of the team from Snyder, the reality of today's football is that excellence almost never follows mediocrity without change.  Most SB coaches have taken a team within 3 seasons or less, Gruden is on the clock.

 

Source?  In the AFC, the Patriots have been to 44% of the Super Bowls since Brady came in.  That eliminates almost a quarter of all Super Bowl teams this century.

 

I don't have time to put the research into it, but what you're saying about this three-year thing doesn't seem right.  

[SWFLSkins]

• After dialing up winning combinations most of the day, Washington coach Jay Gruden got curiously conservative with the game on the line. The Redskins took over with 1:58 remaining, and San Francisco had two timeouts left. A first down would have put the game out of reach, but the Redskins opted for three mostly ineffective runs, giving the ball to Samaje Perine, who struggled all game, instead of trying to get Chris Thompson out in space. It’s also curious that the Redskins didn’t pass, given how much faith Gruden has in Kirk Cousins. Gruden’s quote after the game, “I wanted to throw so bad,” indicates that he knew what to do, he just wasn’t able to pull the trigger on it in the moment.

http://www.richmond.com/redskins-xtra/redskins--ers-observations-was-jay-gruden-too-conservative-in/article_3cfae03c-5a5c-50ea-aa12-861f59f197bd.html

 

[TimmySmith]

11 minutes ago, NewCliche21 said:

 

Source?  In the AFC, the Patriots have been to 44% of the Super Bowls since Brady came in.  That eliminates almost a quarter of all Super Bowl teams this century.

 

I don't have time to put the research into it, but what you're saying about this three-year thing doesn't seem right.  

No need for a source, look it up. 

 

2017 SB NEP Belichick  won 1st SB in 2nd season with Pats  ATL Quinn 2nd season .

2016 SB Den Kubiak 1st season with Den  Car Rivera 5th Season

2015 Pats Belichick  2nd Sea Carroll Won SB in 4th season

2014 Carroll 4th  Fox 3rd with Den

2012 John Harbaugh 5th, made Championship game in 1st , Jim Harbaugh 2nd

2011 Coughlin 4th with Giants, Belichick

2010 Packer McCarthy 5th, Mike Tomlin Won SB in 2nd year

2009 Sean Payton 4th,  Caldwell 1st

 

So last 13 different SB coaches, 2 made it first year, 4 in 2nd, 1 in 3rd, 3 in 4, 3 in 5.   3rd year is a huge one. 

[goskins10]

23 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

No need for a source, look it up. 

 

2017 SB NEP Belichick  won 1st SB in 2nd season with Pats  ATL Quinn 2nd season .

2016 SB Den Kubiak 1st season with Den  Car Rivera 5th Season

2015 Pats Belichick  2nd Sea Carroll Won SB in 4th season

2014 Carroll 4th  Fox 3rd with Den

2012 John Harbaugh 5th, made Championship game in 1st , Jim Harbaugh 2nd

2011 Coughlin 4th with Giants, Belichick

2010 Packer McCarthy 5th, Mike Tomlin Won SB in 2nd year

2009 Sean Payton 4th,  Caldwell 1st

 

So last 13 different SB coaches, 2 made it first year, 4 in 2nd, 1 in 3rd, 3 in 4, 3 in 5.   3rd year is a huge one. 

 

Huh? Your own data says that 1 did in 3 yrs with exactly the same number 6, did it before and after. How does that make the 3rd yr a huge one? It ignores that many coaches are just not even given 3 yrs to get there. Look at all the TO in the NFL. Sorry, not buying 3yrs is some "huge" yr.

[skins island connection]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I was listening to Sheehan this morning. Who knows if hes right but he said he heard Jay gets help from upstairs with end of the game clock management and among the helpers is Bruce. That was weird to hear. I know Bruce for awhile was helping with challenges but clock management?

 

 Oh. My. God. 

 Bruce? You do realize you've just caused my brain to fry. lol.

 I hope to hell Bruce isn't up there having ANYTHING to do with in-game stuff.  That man is dead set on ruining this team one person at a time.  I've just gone into depression.  Lucky for me the highest bridge in my area is only 17'4. 

Please, SIP, tell me you're kidding...

[NewCliche21]

2 hours ago, TimmySmith said:

No need for a source, look it up. 

 

2017 SB NEP Belichick  won 1st SB in 2nd season with Pats  ATL Quinn 2nd season .

2016 SB Den Kubiak 1st season with Den  Car Rivera 5th Season

2015 Pats Belichick  2nd Sea Carroll Won SB in 4th season

2014 Carroll 4th  Fox 3rd with Den

2012 John Harbaugh 5th, made Championship game in 1st , Jim Harbaugh 2nd

2011 Coughlin 4th with Giants, Belichick

2010 Packer McCarthy 5th, Mike Tomlin Won SB in 2nd year

2009 Sean Payton 4th,  Caldwell 1st

 

So last 13 different SB coaches, 2 made it first year, 4 in 2nd, 1 in 3rd, 3 in 4, 3 in 5.   3rd year is a huge one. 

 

1)  "No need for a source, look it up."  You realize that requires a source, right? 

2)  So by your data, fourth and fifth years, not the third.  Got it.

[Momma There Goes That Man]

Either way this is his 4th year so he would be on the clock. 

 

And i I don’t think any of those teams came out nowhere with maybe Carolina being an exception? The rest all had long playoff runs very prior to that. 

 

You can can tell very quickly it things are going to be turned around 

 

 

[steve09ru]

all/most of those coaches had elite quarterbacks as well so you could use that argument.

 

Also, why stop at 2009 and why only use the head coaches experience and years for 1 team? 

[normal_gymnasium]

Take a moment and think back to 2013....

 

 

Okay. Remember what happened that year? The Redskins finished the season with 8 straight losses. The starting quarterback was throwing picks at a rate of one per game, basically. Then the backup came in late to mop up the season and threw 7 INTs in 3 games. The coach and OC were both fired. 

 

Do you remember how you felt after the 2013 regular season came to a close? I bet you do. It went something like this:

 

(Spurrier + Zorn + meddling owner + narcissistic QB)² ÷ 2 Shanahans = I'M SENDING BRUCE ALLEN MY FAN CARD 

 

At that very moment, if I told you that the Redskins would hire a coach who, after one predictably bad season, would:

 

• right the ship and coach the team to 2 consecutive winning seasons,
• take that same shaky backup QB and coach him up to achieve over 9,000 passing yards and 63 total TDs over those 2 winning seasons
• lead the Redskins to a 3-2 start the season after that

 

...would you have taken that coach? 

 

Of course you would have. Compared with the Browns-esque nature of the Redskins in December 2013, that would've seemed like the football equivalent of skinny dipping with frisky underwear models in a pool of champagne.

 

I'm buying Jay Gruden for the foreseeable future, warts and all.

[RandyHolt]

On 10/16/2017 at 11:31 AM, Skinsinparadise said:

I was listening to Sheehan this morning. Who knows if hes right but he said he heard Jay gets help from upstairs with end of the game clock management and among the helpers is Bruce. That was weird to hear. I know Bruce for awhile was helping with challenges but clock management?

 

Thanks for sharing.

 

I am surprised this isn't getting more discussion. Cooley said he thought Jay called that quick TO vs KC after listening to his headset.  I can just envision a team up there in panic mode rushing to make a decision, and Jay forced to take orders from his boss. 

 

Maybe someone with binocs at our next game can find Bruce up in the booth in crunch time, and report in.

 

[Warhead36]

What Gruden doesn't seem to be getting enough credit for is the development of our young talent. And most of them are mid to late round draft picks.

 

Cousins: 4th rounder

Thompson: 7th rounder(drafted by Shanny but didn't develop until Gruden)

Moses: 3rd rounder

Reed: 3rd rounder(see Thompson's note)

Grant: 5th rounder

Long: 3rd rounder

 

If you don't wanna give him credit for Williams or Scherff on the OL because they were top 5 picks then fine, but how about the rest of that development? And that isn't even factoring in the young defensive players either.

[Skinz_4_life]

My biggest gripe with gruden is his decision making when it comes to his defensive coordinator. It appears he found a more than competent one. He’s still forming a potent offense with so many questionable players. I’m buying the gruden stock!

[Jumbo]

I remain grateful that there's still some very football-smart and relatively mentally regular folks who post (this one's for you, spiro) determinedly through the daunting din of doddering dotards (<---- a word btw i been using here a longass time---and no politics in the stadium ).

 

Seriously though, I was reading three of my faves, SIP, tso, and Randy i'm right every now and then Holt...and i was thinking "cool, i never really have to step in and say the smart thing cuz these guys cover it all between them and plus, they don't say the dumb stuff i do".....saves me a lot of clumsy keyboarding....now there are numerous others i think do really well here too of course, like warhead, connskins, goskins etc etc and that's why i don't usually name names...

 

but thank you to you guys...

 

as a short overall take---giving the actual  accurate criticisms of still-evolving kc and jay---my pov is that those two are and long have been among the least of our weaknesses, but of course, most of the white noise occurs on those matters....i think jay is also growing a solid pro staffs....we'll see....but yeah, every other team issue  is a worse prob then the competency of the hc and qb...

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, RandyHolt said:

 

Thanks for sharing.

 

I am surprised this isn't getting more discussion. Cooley said he thought Jay called that quick TO vs KC after listening to his headset.  I can just envision a team up there in panic mode rushing to make a decision, and Jay forced to take orders from his boss. 

 

Maybe someone with binocs at our next game can find Bruce up in the booth in crunch time, and report in.

 

 

Yeah if people recall Bruce was in charge of challenges in Jay's first year from the booth and it was bad in terms of getting things right on that front.  So yeah if its a committee upstairs led by Bruce on this, wow.  Funny in a way.  But like I said in a previous post:  strong buy on Jay.   He's the right coach for this team IMO.  Many coaches have issues on clock management.   I like everything else about him.  

[Warhead36]

Pretty sure every team has people upstairs to help with challenges since they have a much better view and also have access to the TV replays. I am surprised to hear it's Bruce Allen of all people though, you'd think it'd be some 25 year old intern or something.

[lavar1156]

Apparently Doctson only played 19 plays. I just don't understand that.

[Skinsinparadise]

7 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Pretty sure every team has people upstairs to help with challenges since they have a much better view and also have access to the TV replays. I am surprised to hear it's Bruce Allen of all people though, you'd think it'd be some 25 year old intern or something.

 

Yeah but what Sheehan said was he heard that there is a committee upstairs helping with the clock and end of the game clock situations.  That's what surprised me.  Not the challenges, part. 

[Warhead36]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yeah but what Sheehan said was he heard that there is a committee upstairs helping with the clock and end of the game clock situations.  That's what surprised me.  Not the challenges, part. 

Yeah, that is strange. I don't like having a committee help with something like that. Just screams too many cooks in the kitchen. One person, low level assistant, sure. Anything more is overkill.

[skinfan2k]

0 drama around this team.  Top 5 offense yet again.  Finally has a legit DC with him here.  This team is competitive again.  

[SWFLSkins]

On 10/17/2017 at 3:14 PM, Jumbo said:

 

 

as a short overall take---giving the actual  accurate criticisms of still-evolving kc and jay---my pov is that those two are and long have been among the least of our weaknesses, but of course, most of the white noise occurs on those matters....i think jay is also growing a solid pro staffs....we'll see....but yeah, every other team issue  is a worse prob then the competency of the hc and qb...

 

 

My Uncle just passed away and I was at his funeral, I had read this on my phone but can't comment via phone. 

 

He was a very successful business person, well known on the Eastern Shore, something to do with Arches. Anyway, he taught me many things when it came to business. None was greater than accountability. As the Head Coach, the Guy in charge, Boss man.. what have you, you will be held responsible and get the most criticism or critique. Comes with the Job.

 

(a lesson) We went into a "store" and it was backed up bad, he called the GM at home and explained what was going on. The GM said, I really got to do something about that MGR., He just keeps screwing up. My Uncle asked who hired that guy, well the GM did, Well who trained that guy, well the GM did. My Uncle said no it wasn't the MGR. that was screwing up or the GM, it was my Uncle himself....He had hired the wrong GM for the job. 

 

I made this thread not because I wanted Jay to be fired, but to discuss the pros and cons of his tenure this year and overall. I like the guy personally, I have hopes for him obviously. After four years I am in a HOLD position. How much of that is my Uncles fault< none. But Snyder hired Bruce so look no further than the top. If I have a skeptic or critical eye because I had this warm fuzzy feeling before, and all I ended up with was wet shoes. 

 

I survived Norval, Spurrier and Zorn, I'll survive Jay win or lose with fan card intact. But I won't give anyone a free kool-aid that was hired by Snyder, until it's a Gatorade bath. Because I honestly don't trust the Boss man to make the right call for hiring the Mgr. I want Jay to succeed, he genuinely seems like a Head Coach at this point, I don't know if he can overcome the upper room. IF the rumors are accurate about clock mgt. decisions this would reinforce my skepticism, we have already witnessed the detrimental influence on challenges.  

 

 

On 10/17/2017 at 5:48 PM, skinfan2k said:

0 drama around this team.  Top 5 offense yet again.  Finally has a legit DC with him here.  This team is competitive again.  

 

The legit D can help overcome many other mistakes. We are not half way through this, I hope the above holds true for the year. 

On 10/17/2017 at 5:34 PM, lavar1156 said:

Apparently Doctson only played 19 plays. I just don't understand that.

Disappointing in putting it mildy. 

[MassSkinsFan]

Gruden is in year 4. During that time, I've seen him improve. At the beginning we never - NEVER - made any kind of adjustment to anything. Hell, we stuck to our guns and it cost us again and again. I believe Gruden learned from that. Does he still do that at times? Yes. But does he do it all the time? No. To me that shows a very important characteristic - the ability to take feedback and act on it. I like that.

 

Culturally, we have gone from a team of sniping prima donna losers to a united front of teammates who go out and play hard. Sure, we have slow starts and that is maddening, but this team comes out to play most of the time, and it is night and day compared to what Jay started with. Mental preparation is not only on the coaches, so give Jay a little slack here - there are going to be games where he has done everything right to prep his team and yet they still come out flat and never recover. It happens, and it happens even to the best teams. When it does, that's on the team. Jay also speaks his mind. Players have said they know where they stand with him, and they like that. I am very  pleased with the change in the team's culture. These guys are accountable and they expect to win or come close. Good work Jay.

 

Despite these two very important positives, I think Jay needs to improve at adjustments, especially on offense, and also on time management. As we've seen this season, he still doesn't have a good sense of how to manage the clock at the end of a half. Hopefully he realizes this and gets some help in that area. On the play calling front, it's a matter of both adjustments and philosophy. During the end of the Niners game, he had a golden opportunity to cement the game by getting one first down. I was really expecting something like a play action naked bootleg option on second down - a play that has a fairly high chance of picking up a first, but that doesn't commit you to passing. But no: run, run, run. Sometimes you have to take risks to succeed. I worry that Jay is not much of a risk-taker.

 

Overall: Buy, for now, but I expect continued improvements.

[SWFLSkins]

1 hour ago, MassSkinsFan said:

Gruden is in year 4. During that time, I've seen him improve. At the beginning we never - NEVER - made any kind of adjustment to anything. Hell, we stuck to our guns and it cost us again and again. I believe Gruden learned from that. Does he still do that at times? Yes. But does he do it all the time? No. To me that shows a very important characteristic - the ability to take feedback and act on it. I like that.

 

Culturally, we have gone from a team of sniping prima donna losers to a united front of teammates who go out and play hard.

 

1 hour ago, MassSkinsFan said:

 

.....Lots of good stuff....

 

 

 

 During the end of the Niners game, he had a golden opportunity to cement the game by getting one first down. I was really expecting something like a play action naked bootleg option on second down - a play that has a fairly high chance of picking up a first, but that doesn't commit you to passing. But no: run, run, run. Sometimes you have to take risks to succeed. I worry that Jay is not much of a risk-taker.

 

Overall: Buy, for now, but I expect continued improvements.

 

I agree wholeheartedly. 

And maybe we'll even see him finish out the season with some corrections to his current mistakes. It is his first year calling the plays. 

[Darth Tater]

On 10/16/2017 at 11:44 AM, TimmySmith said:

While your post is technically correct that Gruden wrested control of the team from Snyder, the reality of today's football is that excellence almost never follows mediocrity without change.  Most SB coaches have taken a team within 3 seasons or less, Gruden is on the clock.

You do realize that Gibbs came into a excellent situation?  Functional front office who steered him right on issues like who to tap for DC and found him talent in the bushes.  We also had the best pass defense in 1980 by almost every measurement except yards per completion. George Allen's offenses in his early years were mostly based on guys he inherited. While there have been many coaches that took bad teams and got them above average quickly, most of the teams that took 3 or less years to ride a new coach to the dance were already pretty good..  Chuck Noll took 6 years.  Landry didn't even go till his 11th year. Shula took 6 years before he took the Colts to the dance. John Madden didn't take the Raiders until year 8. Vermeil took 5 and then 3. Bill Parcells? Year 4. Sean Peyton didn't do it until year 4. McCarthy not until year 5. Coughlin in year 4. John Harbagugh took 5.  Caroll in year 4. Rivera not until year 5. While successful HCs turn the team into a playoff contender quickly, most coaches take several years to get to the dance if the team wasn't that good to begin with.