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Kirk Cousins 2017 contract discussion/prediction

Tsailand

By Tsailand
in The Stadium

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Tsailand

Tsailand

Posted
Posted

I know we already have a couple active threads about Kirk, but I hope the mods will allow this one, specifically for his contract situation.  I'll start with the basic facts and then we can all get on record with our predictions and/or wild speculation.

  • • Kirk is playing 2016 on the franchise tag, for $19.95M.
  • • The Redskins cannot negotiate with him at all until our 2016 season (including playoffs) ends.
  • • Kirk is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent on March 9th, 2017
  • • Each team gets one franchise tag each year, which may be used between Feb 15th and March 1st on any one of their players who is about to become a free agent.
  • • If a team's tag is not used by March 1st it is gone (until next year)
  • • If a player is tagged, his team has until around July 15th 2017 to negotiate a different long-term deal; otherwise, the tag becomes a one-year contract and no further negotiations are allowed until their 2017 season ends.
  • • Kirk is the most realistic target for our 2017 franchise tag (there could be an argument for tagging Garcon -- debate it below)
  • • Kirk's 2017 tag number would be $24M.
  • • You cannot tag the same player three times in a row.
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aREDSKIN

aREDSKIN

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Kind of tricky right now but if, and it's a big if, he can get us into the playoff and win a couple of games then he can basically write his own check. I don't think the Skins will want to franchise him yet again at 24mil if they make the playoffs again. Lots of QB options out there in 2017 for QB needy teams so the Skins might get a market discount because of supply. He certainly has played better recently compared to the begining of the year. It's a 16+ game schedule. North of 100 mil with close to 55 guaranteed. 5 year.

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Tsailand

Tsailand

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OK, I think $21M/year is low, just based on what he's done through ten games.  And we still need to take the last six games into account.  They haven't been played yet, but I don't see anyone betting against him right now. 

More importantly, I don't think these contract negotiations are going to be based on what the "fair" price for Kirk's performance is, compared to Luck or Tannehill or any other QB who is locked up long term.  His agent is going to want the Redskins to pay him what he would get on the open market right now, and there will be some desperate teams out there.  Some will be awful teams like the Browns trying not be worst in the NFL again.  Some will be good teams like the Broncos who are one good QB away from the super bowl.  Some will be average/mediocre teams like the Jets, one QB away from a playoff contender.  At least one will be willing to pay more than he is "worth".

I doubt the Redskins will be able to come to an agreement with Cousins by March 1st. They could call his bluff by letting him go to the market, then offering to match the high bid.  That's a terrible risk for them, not only because the high bid will probably be insane, but because he is not obligated to go to the high bidder.  Once a free agent, he can sign wherever he thinks is best, and that might not be here. I am sure the Redskins will tag Kirk again if they do not get a deal done by March 1st.  They will not allow him to negotiate with any other team in 2017.

Kirk's agent will ask the Redskins to make him the highest paid player in NFL history.  Will he get it? That depends on how willing Kirk is to play another year on the franchise tag and how willing he is to play chicken with the Redskins.  If he blinks, he will sign for about $22M/year, with about $55M guaranteed.  If the Redskins blink, he will get more money than Luck got.  If neither side blinks, he will play 2017 on the franchise tag and then sign a record setting deal in 2018.

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zoony

zoony

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20 minutes ago, elkabong82 said:

5 years, $120 million, $50 million guaranteed

He'll become one of the top paid QBs in the league and his guaranteed % matches others.

http://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/

I wonder how much SM has budgeted for the QB position

Going to be interesting, SM has gone on record several times about needing to spread money around on offense

8 minutes ago, wit33 said:

That's a legitimate question for some:

What if Kirk and reps demand to be the highest paid QB, how would all feel about it?

The reps wouldnt be doing their job if they asked for anything but

I keep going back to Flaccos contract.  i think we are looking at a huge contract

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Destino

Destino

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Any comparable QBs getting new deals this offseason?  If Derek Carr lands a huge contract extension it could play into what Cousin's demands.  If Cousins finishes the year strong, I think he gets 23 million a year, for 5 years.  50 million guaranteed.  I don't know what he asked for last offseason, but the price has absolutely gone up.  

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illone

illone

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1 hour ago, Tsailand said:

OK, I think $21M/year is low, just based on what he's done through ten games.  And we still need to take the last six games into account.  They haven't been played yet, but I don't see anyone betting against him right now. 

I doubt the Redskins will be able to come to an agreement with Cousins by March 1st. 

 

I don't think it's going to be a long drawn out process like last year.  Last year the big question was can he show more consistency and keep improving over his 2nd year starting... If the team was confident that this year was going to pan out the way it did, he would have been paid last year.  The negotiation will be much shorter this time around and my guess would largely be determined on the guaranteed money and structure of the contract over 4-5 years.  Why do you think it will go beyond March 1st?  Keep in mind, the team can work on the contract now, and have discreet conversations with the agent.  Kirk just can't sign it until after the season...

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skins island connection

skins island connection

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I hope Cousins and his agent take into consideration the rest of the team. Not saying he doesn't deserve the money, I think he does, but some crazy 130 mil deal will put a damper on beefing up the defense, and we'll end up like the early 80' chargers, high powered offense and a defense that couldn't stop a high school team.

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TD_washingtonredskins

TD_washingtonredskins

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19 minutes ago, skins island connection said:

I hope Cousins and his agent take into consideration the rest of the team. Not saying he doesn't deserve the money, I think he does, but some crazy 130 mil deal will put a damper on beefing up the defense, and we'll end up like the early 80' chargers, high powered offense and a defense that couldn't stop a high school team.

Not necessarily. It all depends on how much is guaranteed and what is actually hitting the cap. Outside of that, all we're doing is nitpicking on how to spend Snyder's money. 

If the Redskins signed him to a 6-year deal with $72M in guarantees (enter whatever total contract value you want) that would only equate to an average of $12M per year of cap hit. With the cap exceeding $150M now (and only going up), that's about 8% of the cap. It seems acceptable to allocate 8% of your cap to a QB who is putting up top-5/top-10 numbers over a 2-year period and is entering his prime. 

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zCommander

zCommander

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5 hours ago, thesubmittedone said:

This thread is fine. Though I think anyone wanting to discuss the contract stuff in detail is bat**** crazy, but hey different strokes. :ols: 

Wait! What? Are you telling us that Bruce and Scot don't read ES? You mean they are not going to see what the fans want to pay Kirk? I am sad now. :(

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Koolblue13

Koolblue13

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6 hours ago, skins island connection said:

I hope Cousins and his agent take into consideration the rest of the team. Not saying he doesn't deserve the money, I think he does, but some crazy 130 mil deal will put a damper on beefing up the defense, and we'll end up like the early 80' chargers, high powered offense and a defense that couldn't stop a high school team.

We've got a ton of draft picks this year. Our offense is mostly set. I don't think it's unreasonable to hope we get 3/4 future defensive starters out of this class. 

Should have money for a pretty good D FA if we go that route, too.

I think we're always going to be a team that leans heavy towards our offense, financially speaking.

We could end up with a very good, fast, young defense though.

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Riggo#44

Riggo#44

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13 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

Kinda

Not at all. What good is the pole without the stripper?

The main issues for the Skins and Cousins are the Ravens and Texans paying out the ass for ****ty QBs. Cousins is worth far more than Flacco (who timed his one good year perfectly) and Oswiler.

I do like the 5 yr, $50- $60m guaranteed. Maybe Kirk will keep restructuring like Brady so we can keep addind talent.

I said this to a friend of mine thay still hates Kirk for what ever reason: paying Kirk won't be as crippling because of St. McCloughan, Patron Saint of Hopeless Franchises and his ability to unearth cheap young talent.

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