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The Non-Winter Weather Thread

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Latest models bring its track slightly east. Raises chances it could hit MD.

Friday is when we should take the models more seriously. So early

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Got a cat 2 folks. Would not be surprised to see cat 3 strength tomorrow. Some METs on American are throwing around the potential for a Cat 4.

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Meanwhile, in California

 

 

 

 

I seriously hope UnWise Mike and John Feinstein are not monitoring this thread.

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I have an OBX trip planned for 10 days from now. Please don't wash out the road, I have been waiting on this vacation FOREVER.

Wife and I were supposed to go on Monday. Very frustrating say the least.

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watching the maps where this thing seems to make a hairpin turn is just nuts to me

 

i think i'll add meteorologist to the list of degrees/careers i would pursue if given the chance to do it all over again.

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edit:

Helps if you look at the timeline correctly.

 

Looks like more models have the storm peaking at a cat 4, but most are in the high cat 3 category still.

 

As of 5 am they have it at 120 mph.

Edited by tshile

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Could put a hurting on my weekend HS reunion in DC. 

 

Anyone know when do they announce HS football game cancellations in the DC area?

 

Most HS football games have been moved to today due to the other weather system coming in tomorrow. 

 

WASHINGTON (WUSA9) -- NFL officials have talked with members of the Washington Redskins about the possibility of having to re-schedule this Sunday's game due to potential impacts by Hurricane Joaquin.

http://www.wusa9.com/story/sports/nfl/redskins/2015/09/30/nfl-monitoring-hurricane-joaquin-redskins-game/73109952/

I figured this was coming. 

 

Latest NHC track has it coming up the bay, going over DC as a tropical storm

235910W5_NL_sm.gif

 

I am not sure how a hurricane would do going up the bay.  I can see that being more damage than hitting a coastline and going into land. 

 

Cat 3 now with winds of 115

I am hearing it might go up to a CAT 4 before landfall.  Hugo was a Cat4-5 at landfall and the destruction was something I will never forget. 

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I am not sure how a hurricane would do going up the bay.  I can see that being more damage than hitting a coastline and going into land. 

 

I am hearing it might go up to a CAT 4 before landfall.  Hugo was a Cat4-5 at landfall and the destruction was something I will never forget. 

 

 

Pssst...the bay is coastline.  But I imagine if it went up the Bay it would cause a lot of damage due to the raised water levels from the storm surge (especially if it hits at high tide), which could be costly since there are a lot of high value properties around the bay.

Edited by China

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yeah and the area has flooding issues when it rains too much.

 

a serious hurricane?

 

I'm not that far from it, but i'm far enough that I think we'll be fine. down trees and siding/shingles being ripped off will be our main concern.

 

guess i'll sleep in the basement :(

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I am not sure how a hurricane would do going up the bay. I can see that being more damage than hitting a coastline and going into land.

Hurricane Isabel tracked just west of the bay and flooded every bit of waterfront along the way. Isabel was unfortunate as it hit during high tide. I'll never forget seeing water up to the roof line at Mike's Crabhouse or wading in chest deep water in downtown Annapolis long after the waters had started to recede. Many of the boats at our marina punched through the steel canopy as the surge pushed up the West River. We had to swim through the parking lot to get to our boat and tighten the lines as the water level fell. I've never seen anything like it.

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I think the worries with the bay is where does the water go? When a storm hits a normal coastline, it can spread across the coastline and the water has somewhere to go. With the bay, the water is surrounded by land, and the force pushing it, WAS the only escape.

If this things does truly travel up the bay, expect some SERIOUS flooding damage around that area.

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Pssst...the bay is coastline.  But I imagine if it went up the Bay it would cause a lot of damage due to the raised water levels from the storm surge (especially if it hits at high tide), which could be costly since there are a lot of high value properties around the bay.

LOL I am talking bay vs Ocean LOL

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i know someone with a house on an island on the river. i imagine this will destroy the entire property if it happens.

 

sucks, is an awesome spot. especially for crabbing and fishing.

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Some good news......

 

 

http://www.nbc12.typepad.com/weather/

READ ON FOR THE NITTY-GRITTY...

TWO STRAIGHT RUNS OF the GFS model, that have incorporated fresh aircraft-gathered data, have drastically shifted to the east on the forecast track. Will be interesting to see if this trend continues....this is a good sign if you'd like this to miss us in Virginia.  

Here's the computer model that ran at 8pm yesterday

http://blogs.nbc12.com/.a/6a016766efbf6d970b01b7c7d6a8da970b-500wi

 

 

And the same run 6 hours later (ran at 2AM) which has a HUGE jump offshore.  That's quite a shift in the past 12 hours... we have to take this with a grain of salt.  The overnight run sometimes acts a little flaky. 

http://blogs.nbc12.com/.a/6a016766efbf6d970b01b8d1609d4d970c-500wi

 

 

This is the latest forecast track from NHC at 8am.  They continue to say there is a large spread of possibilities, so this forecast track is far from certain.  Today's forecast track EAST of what it was yesterday.  

http://blogs.nbc12.com/.a/6a016766efbf6d970b01b7c7d6e534970b-pi

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57 degrees and rain. Today's forecast...yuck!! Also as expected track of #Joaquin Now farther offshore! Would bring us very little impacts

.

 

The Canadian, GFDL, HWRF, and NAVGEM models
forecast Joaquin to turn northwestward and make landfall over the
Carolinas and mid-Atlantic States. The ECMWF continues to forecast
a slower northeastward motion taking Joaquin near Bermuda and out to
sea. The UKMET and GFS are in between these extremes showing a
generally northward motion. Given the spread and the possibility
that the 1200 UTC guidance could show additional changes, the
forecast track after 36 hours is nudged only slightly to the east at
this time. The new track lies to the east of the landfalling models,
but to the west of the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, and the various consensus
models. Further adjustments to the track may be needed later today
depending on how the models do (or do not) change

 

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml?

Edited by heyholetsgogrant

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the mid-day runs of the models appear to be taking this off the coast completely, and a clear and sunny weekend.

 

That would probably be a great, great, thing, even for those of us who kind of like to track and observe weather phenomena

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Indeed good news. The turn north should be starting soon. Keep an eye on the 23 N latitude line. If it goes further south than that we can start to breath easier.

Winds are up to 125 right now. Cat 4 is easily attainable. Some mets are saying this could be a high end cat 4 maybe even a cat 5, which would be truly historic.

Stay safe everyone.

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forecasts are swinging wildly now!  :)

 

i biked in this morning... in the pouring rain... with the weather ap on my phone showing 0% of rain in the morning, and high chance of rain in the evening rush (today).   

 

(now that the 0% rain downpour is starting to lighten up a little, the evening rush has changed from "heavy rain" to "overcast" )

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