Welcome to the Commanders Jer'Zhan Newton DT Illinois

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, Dah-Dee said:

ESPN article on draft surprises discusses Newton:

 

2024 NFL draft confidential: College coaches' surprises, sleepers

https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/40076470/nfl-draft-2024-college-coaches-confidential-sleepers-surprises

 

Illinois defensive tackle Jer'Zhan Newton was a two-time AP All-America selection, a consensus All-American in 2023, the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year and a Nagurski Trophy finalist.

 

"Everybody thought he was going to be a first-rounder," a Big Ten coordinator said.

 

But Newton had to wait until the second round, when Washington drafted him 36th overall.

 

"When he [gave full effort], he was unblockable," a Big Ten coach said. "His problem is, it's on and off. He's not consistent with his effort, and at that level, if you want to be a first-rounder, you better be a freakazoid or relentless effort. But when we watched his film, we were like, 'If he's going to play hard the whole game, I don't think we can block this guy.'"

 

Reading that suddenly brought back memories of Tracy Rocker. Didn't realize it was a knee injury that derailed him. 

[Conn]

3 hours ago, RandyHolt said:

Ron largely did not draft for need IMO. He basically ignored QB, stockpiled defense with questionable top picks, and ignored the OL.

 

I have PTSD from him drafting defenders as a priority (and the stacked defense failing in spectacular fashion) so was jaded at the pick but if Newton sees the field along side Allen and Payne and gets us immediate return on investment the pick will work out fine.

 

All things equal I think its a mistake to draft a first round grade player on defense and at best them be rotational or "maybe a starter by year 2 or 3". Blame Jamin Mathis Forbes et al. Maybe even Quan. I get it; modern defense is all about shuttling your best players off the field to put in spackle backups - I am just old school and don't always like it. Give me Allen a supreme athlete arguably our best player full time vs Allen splitting time with Potatoe' or Mathis. Now, subbing him out for Newton I could sign off on (i like to see top rookies PLAY) but again, we are taking a TOTAL STUD off the field. The push back to folks like me?  Allen NEEDS a breather he is really gassed. Oh really. Any proof to that?

 

Food for thought: A 320 pound DL sprinting to the sideline (or back on the field) to avoid a 12th man may gas them more, than staying in the game actually does. Actual game time with players going full bore is a mere 11 minutes, all very liberally spread out over 3 hours.

 

I really hope we have a package with our 3 stud DL in the game at the same time, A TON.

This is the second time you’ve posted your theory that these monsters who have to eat professionally in their off-time to stay large and fat enough to even play their positions don’t actually need to be coming off the field.
 

Everyone kinda ignored it the first time you said it recently but I just feel like I have to bluntly say that imo you’re just wrong. Or the entire NFL is wrong. But I’m banking on you being wrong.

 

Our talented DL has gotten noticeably less effective and more injured when they’ve had to play more and more snaps. Payne has had a season or two where he was an exception but that’s extremely rare. These guys are mostly not even meant to be the size and strength they are. An insane amount of work goes into it, and the cardio takes a hit. I think it’s admirable to question common sense on long held beliefs in this league but this one imo clearly has merit. The best DL’s are those that can rotate in talented depth and keep the energy high 

[bird_1972]

I wonder if drafting him means curtains for Mathis. Talk about a bust in the second round. Doesn't get much worse than that! 

 

I only remember seeing him make a play once since we drafted him. 

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

I honestly have no recollection of Mathis ever being on the field.

[bird_1972]

1 hour ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

I honestly have no recollection of Mathis ever being on the field.

 

Once - seriously, I only saw him once. And by "making a play", I am being generous. I think he was just around the ball. Not sure if he even tackled the guy.

[Conn]

28 minutes ago, bird_1972 said:

 

Once - seriously, I only saw him once. And by "making a play", I am being generous. I think he was just around the ball. Not sure if he even tackled the guy.

You couldn’t even convince me he’s ever been assigned a jersey number 

[method man]

3 hours ago, bird_1972 said:

I wonder if drafting him means curtains for Mathis. Talk about a bust in the second round. Doesn't get much worse than that! 

 

I only remember seeing him make a play once since we drafted him. 

Unless one of the other four suffers a major injury in training camp / preseason, he is gone. Ridgeway is DQ’s guy from the Cowboys days - when they cut him early in 2022, their goal was to out him on the PS for a game before bringing him back but wr snatched him up because Ron let both Ion and Settle go and left us with Donovan Jeter

[redskinss]

Can't say as i have much hope for phidarian but I'll say this he's less of an F than he is an incomplete. 

He missed his entire rookie season then the first half of his second season and when he came back he was both injured and playing for a defense that had totally quit.

 

Usually when a player starts his career the way he has they don't recover but if he had 32 games under his belt at this point and was still a ghost it'd be good night for his career.

He still has a chance to show something if healthy and in a defense that has real leadership and hasn't checked out.

My hope that he could be a semi valuable contributor off the bench hasn't vanished completely but the light is dim.

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, redskinss said:

Can't say as i have much hope for phidarian but I'll say this he's less of an F than he is an incomplete. 

He missed his entire rookie season then the first half of his second season and when he came back he was both injured and playing for a defense that had totally quit.

 

Usually when a player starts his career the way he has they don't recover but if he had 32 games under his belt at this point and was still a ghost it'd be good night for his career.

He still has a chance to show something if healthy and in a defense that has real leadership and hasn't checked out.

My hope that he could be a semi valuable contributor off the bench hasn't vanished completely but the light is dim.

 

He's passed on the depth chart by a rotation of Allen/Payne/Newton.  He'll still play if he's healthy, but he's looking at maybe 300 snaps a season at most unless somebody in front of him gets hurt.  That's not a lot of opportunity to make an impact.  And TBH, he might get passed by Ridgeway too.

 

He needs to make the most of whatever snaps he can get this year because his NFL career depends on it.  He needs to have a Tim Settle-style impact where you can tell this dude can play despite limited action.

[TheShredder]

On 5/6/2024 at 9:22 PM, RandyHolt said:

It's 100% pure speculation that he needs rest. What he needs is to be at full health to play full time and be effective.  Allen had a foot injury plantars?? that maybe never fully healed. That **** is painful as F and was on the injured list all year. And he had a knee late.

Not sure about him or Payne needing rest, but the league avg is 65% of snaps and they both played in the 85% range. It would probably be a strategic adjustment to manage the reps to closer to the average moving forward. 

Remember when Allen was drafted and had questions about his shoulders or something?  Never heard anything about him having issues with those wings, but he's had foot and knee issues recently. That late knee could have been made up or made out to be more than it was as they IR'd a bunch of guys at the end of the year in meaningless games. 

[RandyHolt]

6 hours ago, TheShredder said:

Not sure about him or Payne needing rest, but the league avg is 65% of snaps and they both played in the 85% range. It would probably be a strategic adjustment to manage the reps to closer to the average moving forward. 

Remember when Allen was drafted and had questions about his shoulders or something?  Never heard anything about him having issues with those wings, but he's had foot and knee issues recently. That late knee could have been made up or made out to be more than it was as they IR'd a bunch of guys at the end of the year in meaningless games. 

Nice pull on the shoulder... likely just draft paranoia.

 

FTR I am not disputing that the league has universally switched to rotating out defensive players notably the DL. Again what I am disputing is that our top players are out of shape or otherwise unable to perform to expectations in just 5.5 minutes of full bore strenuous activity, very liberally spread across 3 hours.  I still contend I will take Allen at 95% than Potatoe' at 100% ICE COLD. That clear backup guy coming in ice cold better be damn ready to get attacked by OCs searching for weak links, and outperform Allen.  If I am an OL or OC I am thrilled Allen and Payne are on the bench. Until we got Newton, at least.

 

If the modern day DCs going to a scrub backups in the 3rd series was a game changer, backup DL would have higher PFF grades than the starters, right?? Finally we have stats on this ****. The backup laden defense collectively also posting better stats than the starters. Lets see them.

 

I bet some here may recall hearing pass rushers subbed out annoyed because they had been setting up an OL and on the bench, their plan neutered.

 

A coach knows who has a high motor laced on Sudafed and a guy that is out of shape. . Sub accordingly.  Here are 2 motors from back in the day.

Edited May 10 by RandyHolt

[Koolblue13]

Fat AH had a relentless motor before he came to us and got overpaid. He was awesome. Same with Wilkerson.

[skinny21]

3 hours ago, RandyHolt said:

Nice pull on the shoulder... likely just draft paranoia.

 

FTR I am not disputing that the league has universally switched to rotating out defensive players notably the DL. Again what I am disputing is that our top players are out of shape or otherwise unable to perform to expectations in just 5.5 minutes of full bore strenuous activity, very liberally spread across 3 hours.  I still contend I will take Allen at 95% than Potatoe' at 100% ICE COLD. That clear backup guy coming in ice cold better be damn ready to get attacked by OCs searching for weak links, and outperform Allen.  If I am an OL or OC I am thrilled Allen and Payne are on the bench. Until we got Newton, at least.

 

If the modern day DCs going to a scrub backups in the 3rd series was a game changer, backup DL would have higher PFF grades than the starters, right?? Finally we have stats on this ****. The backup laden defense collectively also posting better stats than the starters. Lets see them.

 

I bet some here may recall hearing pass rushers subbed out annoyed because they had been setting up an OL and on the bench, their plan neutered.

 

A coach knows who has a high motor laced on Sudafed and a guy that is out of shape. . Sub accordingly.  Here are 2 motors from back in the day.

A few points…

It’s not about being out of shape, it’s about preserving their bodies so they can maintain a high level of play.  Maybe it would be helpful to look at it like MLB pitchers on a pitch count - it’s not because they can’t possibly pitch the whole game.

It’s not about 1 game, it’s the full season of wear and tear.

The backups won’t perform better than the starters, because the idea is having a temporary drop off in play (though ideally you have quality backups to minimize that drop off) so that the starters can better maintain their high level of play.  And yes, OCs will try to take advantage, but DCs will also try to account for that.

As to the time they’re out there (your 5.5 minutes), I feel like you’re looking at it (too simplistically) as pure energy expenditure, when in reality it’s more like doing your max weight for squats.  It’s a lot easier to recover from aerobic than anaerobic, relatively speaking.

 

Don’t know if this helps, but I randomly saw the interview with Ekler on Command Center, and he talked about being fresher as part of a RBBC.  Said everyone, even practice squad players’ legs are worn out by the end of the season - months of weights and practice take their toll, and that’s magnified when adding game reps… and that’s even further magnified when you’re in the trenches.

 

 

I’m not going to assume all coaches inherently now what’s best, and I absolutely applaud you questioning accepted wisdom, but it’s worth considering that this is a collective of strength trainers, position coaches, QC assistants, analytics, nutritionists, the DC, game film, watching practices, etc, arriving at this conclusion.  And it’s worth noting that the entire league (and FBS) uses and values DL rotation.

Edited May 10 by skinny21

[bird_1972]

12 hours ago, method man said:

Unless one of the other four suffers a major injury in training camp / preseason, he is gone. Ridgeway is DQ’s guy from the Cowboys days - when they cut him early in 2022, their goal was to out him on the PS for a game before bringing him back but wr snatched him up because Ron let both Ion and Settle go and left us with Donovan Jeter

 

Ive been pleased with Ridgeway. He was a rare good pickup by the Rivera regime. 

He will be a good rotational piece here.

[skinsfan66]

3 hours ago, RandyHolt said:

Nice pull on the shoulder... likely just draft paranoia.

 

FTR I am not disputing that the league has universally switched to rotating out defensive players notably the DL. Again what I am disputing is that our top players are out of shape or otherwise unable to perform to expectations in just 5.5 minutes of full bore strenuous activity, very liberally spread across 3 hours.  I still contend I will take Allen at 95% than Potatoe' at 100% ICE COLD. That clear backup guy coming in ice cold better be damn ready to get attacked by OCs searching for weak links, and outperform Allen.  If I am an OL or OC I am thrilled Allen and Payne are on the bench. Until we got Newton, at least.

 

If the modern day DCs going to a scrub backups in the 3rd series was a game changer, backup DL would have higher PFF grades than the starters, right?? Finally we have stats on this ****. The backup laden defense collectively also posting better stats than the starters. Lets see them.

 

I bet some here may recall hearing pass rushers subbed out annoyed because they had been setting up an OL and on the bench, their plan neutered.

 

A coach knows who has a high motor laced on Sudafed and a guy that is out of shape. . Sub accordingly.  Here are 2 motors from back in the day.

Is that the hit Dexter put on Danny White, ringing his clock? If so said he was going to do it before the playoff game, and backed it up. White was never the same after that game. Monte closing in too.

[The Consigliere]

13 hours ago, redskinss said:

Can't say as i have much hope for phidarian but I'll say this he's less of an F than he is an incomplete. 

He missed his entire rookie season then the first half of his second season and when he came back he was both injured and playing for a defense that had totally quit.

 

Usually when a player starts his career the way he has they don't recover but if he had 32 games under his belt at this point and was still a ghost it'd be good night for his career.

He still has a chance to show something if healthy and in a defense that has real leadership and hasn't checked out.

My hope that he could be a semi valuable contributor off the bench hasn't vanished completely but the light is dim.

I think part of the reason he feels like an "F" is because he was an obvious WTF?!?!? pick when the selection was made. He seemed like a colossal reach at the time (I think he was late 3rd to late 4th projected, something like in the 80-120 zone (just noticed he was 94th on PFF's big board), and we took him 47th, basically a full round and a half before he should have gone. When you make reaches like we did with Mathis, with Forbes, with Dotson, with Jamin, and none of them hit, all of them even underhit the lower ranking (by far) pff and others had on them you just end up looking like an idiot. When we took a guy projected to go in the compensatory section of the late 3rd, in the early 2nd, in Mathis, we looked stupid, and felt stupid, Jamin getting taken in the teens when he was projected in the mid 2nd? Forbes taken in the teens when he was projected late 1st, and with Gonzalez, a top 5-10 prospect still there, you look stupid. Dotson projected by PFF as a late 2nd, but by most others as a late 1st to early 2nd, we take in the teens, and he's meh, with guys like George Pickens on the board (headcase that he is but still)...stupid.

 

Mathis is the penultimate example of that, like the Jets selections of the 80's and 90's or the raiders selection any recent decade, when either of those teams, or us, go off the board, it's never been because we know something, it's always been because we know nothing. 

 

Nice to be in a situation where there's reason to think just about all of our picks had some degree of insight in them (the nickel is a team leader, elite against the run despite size, legit player period, the TE is athletic, and one of the few guys with upside at the position after Bowers, the DT was a top 10-20 talent that slipped due to injury and size concerns, the 3rd rounder Guard is versatile with a high ceiling and played hurt during his iffy '23, the McCaffrey pick tested well and is knew to the position, the LB MaGee looks pretty sick according to a ton of metrics, the OHIO State transfer to Notre Dame edge might have a high rotational ceiling etc....all of them have interesting #'s in athletic score that suggest they can impact on the field, and all have narratives explaining high ceiling potential....

 

When we picked Mathis: I thought. "That's an obvious mistake."

When we picked Forbes over Gonzalez, I thought, "So we're the team that takes the Todd Blackledge of Corners, while the Patriots are the Dolphins that take Marino". 

When we picked Dotson in the mid 1st I thought, "Nice player, but he has zero chance of being the #1 option in a QB's reads, and why the <expletive> are you using top 15-20 draft capital on a WR that is complimentary 2nd option on his best day?

When we took Jamin, I thought, "We have no QB, and we took a LB rated below 3 or 4 guys who still haven't gone, while all of them are projected to go in the 2nd round ALL OF THEM. Why?"

 

Most of us had similar thoughts, though we all indulge some post-hoc rationalizations because hope is an addictive thing in an offseason, nobody wants to step into the starting blocks before the race of a season already assuming they've lost, but we all still knew internally,  "Mathis was a mistakes, Forbes over Gonzalez was a mistake (probably system and stupidity based), Dotson that high w/o trading down was stupid, and Jamin over JOK was dumb to begin with and taking either of them 30 picks before they were projected to go with day 1 draft capital was criminally stupid". Well, enjoy the 5th year option not being picked up for the second of four consecutive years ('23, '24, '25 and '26). Great Job idiots (Ron regime).  

 

Edited May 10 by The Consigliere

[Going Commando]

20 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

When we picked Mathis: I thought. "That's an obvious mistake."

 

We always hear that we can't judge a draft class until three years out, but a class full of contemporaneously perceived reaches usually doesn't get better looking over time.  Almost all of the reaches from the Rivera era have been generally disappointing players.  The two who were seen as value picks (Cosmi and Howell) massively outplayed their draft position.  The rest of the Day 1 and 2 guys who were taken around their natural range (St Juste, Gibson, Robinson) have been fine.  I'm not really judging their day 3 work at all, except in their favor with Howell/Curl, because finding anyone after like the top ~130 who significantly hits is pulling a winning lottery ticket.

 

I think we'll see that pattern continue to play out with our new regime's drafts, because I think that's how it works for everyone except for the very most shrewd FOs like the Rams.  Jayden Daniels is obviously going to define the success or failure of our class, even if he's the only player from the entire group who works out.  But looking beyond him at the 2024 class, Newton was an obvious value pick and will probably be the defining player of the class after Jayden Daniels.  Sainristil and Sinnott were taken about where they should have gone and will probably be solid long term starters.  Coleman and McCaffrey were pretty substantial reaches and will probably not work out.  If this bears out, then getting three starting caliber players (including a guy with Pro Bowl upside) from five picks 36-100 is good enough to hold serve.  But it doesn't necessarily mean we're getting better since we had to trade three starters to get the ammo for those picks, and one of them was a Pro-Bowler.

 

Back to Mathis and Dotson, one of the reasons we reached on them is because of another huge issue that this franchise has had: getting our best players to second contracts.  This is a process that is automatic for most teams, and the good ones tend to get extensions done a year early because they are good at long term planning and seeing those plans through.  But this franchise is cheap, has always had a dumb grass is greener mentality about outside FAs, regularly picks fights with it's best players, is super reactionary instead of ever building with long term vision, and tries to use contract years to send messages and motivate players who obviously don't need that **** to play hard.  We absolutely reached on Dotson and Mathis in part because we were afraid of not being able to get extension with Terry and Daron done, and I would bet anything they were picked to use as leverage in extension negotiations.  Ron got three important contract extensions done in his entire tenure here.  Three.  And that's a far better record than what Bruce Allen accomplished before him.  Hopefully those days are over.  And hopefully we can get obviously necessary extensions done a year early now, AKA Cosmi needs a new deal.

[TurningTheCorner]

15 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

We always hear that we can't judge a draft class until three years out, but a class full of contemporaneously perceived reaches usually doesn't get better looking over time.  Almost all of the reaches from the Rivera era have been generally disappointing players.  The two who were seen as value picks (Cosmi and Howell) massively outplayed their draft position.  The rest of the Day 1 and 2 guys who were taken around their natural range (St Juste, Gibson, Robinson) have been fine.  I'm not really judging their day 3 work at all, except in their favor with Howell/Curl, because finding anyone after like the top ~130 who significantly hits is pulling a winning lottery ticket.

 

I think we'll see that pattern continue to play out with our new regime's drafts, because I think that's how it works for everyone except for the very most shrewd FOs like the Rams.  Jayden Daniels is obviously going to define the success or failure of our class, even if he's the only player from the entire group who works out.  But looking beyond him at the 2024 class, Newton was an obvious value pick and will probably be the defining player of the class after Jayden Daniels.  Sainristil and Sinnott were taken about where they should have gone and will probably be solid long term starters.  Coleman and McCaffrey were pretty substantial reaches and will probably not work out.  If this bears out, then getting three starting caliber players (including a guy with Pro Bowl upside) from five picks 36-100 is good enough to hold serve.  But it doesn't necessarily mean we're getting better since we had to trade three starters to get the ammo for those picks, and one of them was a Pro-Bowler.

 

Back to Mathis and Dotson, one of the reasons we reached on them is because of another huge issue that this franchise has had: getting our best players to second contracts.  This is a process that is automatic for most teams, and the good ones tend to get extensions done a year early because they are good at long term planning and seeing those plans through.  But this franchise is cheap, has always had a dumb grass is greener mentality about outside FAs, regularly picks fights with it's best players, is super reactionary instead of ever building with long term vision, and tries to use contract years to send messages and motivate players who obviously don't need that **** to play hard.  We absolutely reached on Dotson and Mathis in part because we were afraid of not being able to get extension with Terry and Daron done, and I would bet anything they were picked to use as leverage in extension negotiations.  Ron got three important contract extensions done in his entire tenure here.  Three.  And that's a far better record than what Bruce Allen accomplished before him.  Hopefully those days are over.  And hopefully we can get obviously necessary extensions done a year early now, AKA Cosmi needs a new deal.

A lot of truth in here but also quite a lot of projection that this will be the case going forward even though everyone from owner to GM to head coach to QB And half our starters are completely different. 
 

Hopefully better times ahead. 

[The Consigliere]

44 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

We always hear that we can't judge a draft class until three years out, but a class full of contemporaneously perceived reaches usually doesn't get better looking over time.  Almost all of the reaches from the Rivera era have been generally disappointing players.  The two who were seen as value picks (Cosmi and Howell) massively outplayed their draft position.  The rest of the Day 1 and 2 guys who were taken around their natural range (St Juste, Gibson, Robinson) have been fine.  I'm not really judging their day 3 work at all, except in their favor with Howell/Curl, because finding anyone after like the top ~130 who significantly hits is pulling a winning lottery ticket.

 

I think we'll see that pattern continue to play out with our new regime's drafts, because I think that's how it works for everyone except for the very most shrewd FOs like the Rams.  Jayden Daniels is obviously going to define the success or failure of our class, even if he's the only player from the entire group who works out.  But looking beyond him at the 2024 class, Newton was an obvious value pick and will probably be the defining player of the class after Jayden Daniels.  Sainristil and Sinnott were taken about where they should have gone and will probably be solid long term starters.  Coleman and McCaffrey were pretty substantial reaches and will probably not work out.  If this bears out, then getting three starting caliber players (including a guy with Pro Bowl upside) from five picks 36-100 is good enough to hold serve.  But it doesn't necessarily mean we're getting better since we had to trade three starters to get the ammo for those picks, and one of them was a Pro-Bowler.

 

Back to Mathis and Dotson, one of the reasons we reached on them is because of another huge issue that this franchise has had: getting our best players to second contracts.  This is a process that is automatic for most teams, and the good ones tend to get extensions done a year early because they are good at long term planning and seeing those plans through.  But this franchise is cheap, has always had a dumb grass is greener mentality about outside FAs, regularly picks fights with it's best players, is super reactionary instead of ever building with long term vision, and tries to use contract years to send messages and motivate players who obviously don't need that **** to play hard.  We absolutely reached on Dotson and Mathis in part because we were afraid of not being able to get extension with Terry and Daron done, and I would bet anything they were picked to use as leverage in extension negotiations.  Ron got three important contract extensions done in his entire tenure here.  Three.  And that's a far better record than what Bruce Allen accomplished before him.  Hopefully those days are over.  And hopefully we can get obviously necessary extensions done a year early now, AKA Cosmi needs a new deal.

 

Pretty much agree w/all of that. The only area of disagreement is Sinnott vs Coleman. Coleman wasn't a reach, Sinnot was. Coleman was rated a 2nd/3rd round Guard/Tackle on multiple lists and was tiered out in the group that he went in the middle of (2nd tier of OT's and OT/G prospects went 55-79, he went in the middle of the run and was ranked higher than guys who went ahead of him in the late second by both Brugler and the guy who does the ranks for the NFL prospect write ups). Sinnott was ranked 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th by a variety of outfits amongst TE's, most had JT Sanders above him going in, and hi in the clump of guys expected to go late day 2 to early day 3, and it's telling because basically after Bowers only 2 more TE's were selected in the next 90ish picks. Sinnott with our 2nd, then a big 30+ gap before a wtf?!?! TE was taken 3rd round, and then another gap before a pile of TE's went in round 4 (I think 6 of them went in round 4, after only 2 went the previous like 85-90 picks). So basically our reaches were Sinnot, and McCaffrey, and Sainristil is harder to figure because I think he was generally suffering from rating lag, where guys creating mocks and big boards didn't realize how high he'd climbed for a lot of teams (in fairness, I think after Sinnott did so well in testing at the combine, he climbed from a day 3 guy, into day 2). 

 

but beyond that switch I agree completely. I tend to think w/teams that go off the board, you need to look at track record, are they the raiders? The raiders always ---- up when they do that. Are they the old Jets? Same. Are they us? Same. The Patriots or Ravens or Panthers taking a WR? They probably botched it. The steelers reaching for a WR? Trust it. Some organizations just nail positions (Steelers and WR's, and OL's), some organizations are terrible at them (Ravens have been notoriously bad at drafting WR's, same with the Pats), and so with reaches, if the org is dumb, the reach is probably stupid, if the org is good at scouting that position, give them some space to see if they just saw something. When the Steelers took Pickens, I knew we were idiots, because character red flags or not, Pickes before he got hurt was projected #1 or #2 by most at WR in the '22 class. Then he fell due to injury and behaving like an idiot in college. The Steelers take him, immediately turn him into a top 25 WR in the league. Meanwhile Dotson, a reach of 15-35 slots depending upon who you trust, still, looks like a #3 or #4 option for most teams. Not great. 

 

The good news for us is that this regime has a track record that's pretty solid. And its been a long time since I've really had to reach a lot to justify multiple picks especially day 1 and day 2 guys (like you, with day 3 and UDFA's, I expect a competent regime to be able to pull about 1.5 roster players from a class, the only way you usually hit more than that on day 3 picks, is if you pick really early in each round AND have a lot of roster space because your team sucks), I still hate the Daniels pick over Maye, and will continue to do so until clearly proven wrong long term, but I like a lot of everything else....time will tell. 

 

 

Just now, The Consigliere said:

 

Pretty much agree w/all of that. The only area of disagreement is Sinnott vs Coleman. Coleman wasn't a reach, Sinnot was. Coleman was rated a 2nd/3rd round Guard/Tackle on multiple lists and was tiered out in the group that he went in the middle of (2nd tier of OT's and OT/G prospects went 55-79, he went in the middle of the run and was ranked higher than guys who went ahead of him in the late second by both Brugler and the guy who does the ranks for the NFL prospect write ups). Sinnott was ranked 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th by a variety of outfits amongst TE's, most had JT Sanders above him going in, and hi in the clump of guys expected to go late day 2 to early day 3, and it's telling because basically after Bowers only 2 more TE's were selected in the next 90ish picks. Sinnott with our 2nd, then a big 30+ gap before a wtf?!?! TE was taken 3rd round, and then another gap before a pile of TE's went in round 4 (I think 6 of them went in round 4, after only 2 went the previous like 85-90 picks). So basically our reaches were Sinnot, and McCaffrey, and Sainristil is harder to figure because I think he was generally suffering from rating lag, where guys creating mocks and big boards didn't realize how high he'd climbed for a lot of teams (in fairness, I think after Sinnott did so well in testing at the combine, he climbed from a day 3 guy, into day 2). 

 

but beyond that switch I agree completely. I tend to think w/teams that go off the board, you need to look at track record, are they the raiders? The raiders always ---- up when they do that. Are they the old Jets? Same. Are they us? Same. The Patriots or Ravens or Panthers taking a WR? They probably botched it. The steelers reaching for a WR? Trust it. Some organizations just nail positions (Steelers and WR's, and OL's), some organizations are terrible at them (Ravens have been notoriously bad at drafting WR's, same with the Pats), and so with reaches, if the org is dumb, the reach is probably stupid, if the org is good at scouting that position, give them some space to see if they just saw something. When the Steelers took Pickens, I knew we were idiots, because character red flags or not, Pickes before he got hurt was projected #1 or #2 by most at WR in the '22 class. Then he fell due to injury and behaving like an idiot in college. The Steelers take him, immediately turn him into a top 25 WR in the league. Meanwhile Dotson, a reach of 15-35 slots depending upon who you trust, still, looks like a #3 or #4 option for most teams. Not great. 

 

The good news for us is that this regime has a track record that's pretty solid. And its been a long time since I've really had to reach a lot to justify multiple picks especially day 1 and day 2 guys (like you, with day 3 and UDFA's, I expect a competent regime to be able to pull about 1.5 roster players from a class, the only way you usually hit more than that on day 3 picks, is if you pick really early in each round AND have a lot of roster space because your team sucks), I still hate the Daniels pick over Maye, and will continue to do so until clearly proven wrong long term, but I like a lot of everything else....time will tell. 

 

 

 

Oh, I should add, the second contract rate with a lot of guys is much lower than people expect, I think with WR's its less than 15% as of 2022. So the fact that we couldn't get contracts done with guys isn't too surprising to me, all teams lose most of their guys, and some guys you should let go (nobody should give a RB a 2nd contract in this positional environment),but I do agree, when you clearly hit on a reasonable talent like McLaurin, or Payne or Allen etc, it shouldn't be hard to figure out that they should get that extension, rather than a fight, with Snyder gone, I agree, this should go away.

[FootballZombie]

Newton is in a walking boot today so he is still recovering for his procedure.

 

 

https://atozsports.com/washington/johnny-newton-walking-boot-rookie-minicamp/

[RandyHolt]

That's just pupping great

[TheShredder]

9 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

That's just pupping great

[CommanderInTheRye]

2 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

Newton is in a walking boot today so he is still recovering for his procedure.

 

 

https://atozsports.com/washington/johnny-newton-walking-boot-rookie-minicamp/

 

 

Nothing to worry about.

 

Keim just reported that the doctor said the procedure went smoothly, and all indications are that Newton should be ready for the start of the season, or shortly thereafter.

 

In fact, Newton was feeling so spry and energetic after the surgery that he went out on the town last night, and even decided to dance on his newly reconstructed "walking appendage"...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yep all those years of bad luck and voodoo curses on our draft picks are a thing of the past.

 

.

Edited May 10 by CommanderInTheRye

[Dark Acre]

7 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

Fat AH had a relentless motor before he came to us and got overpaid. He was awesome. Same with Wilkerson.

It's Wilkinson, and with a great block from D. Green he had an 88 yd pick-6 against the Bears in 1999.  Oddly, Big Daddy had 4 picks while he played for us.  For a DT, that's pretty good.  Wilkinson was ok; Stumblefield was the real problem.

[TheShredder]

8 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

Nothing to worry about.

 

Keim just reported that the doctor said the procedure went smoothly, and all indications are that Newton should be ready for the start of the season, or shortly thereafter.

It's not healed..not allowing his bone to completely heal before doing anything is very stupid. There's no doc who would sign off on him for full duty without an MRI which would have revealed incomplete fussion. Seems as though he felt better and likely did whatever he wanted instead of the latter and now there's a price to pay. You cannot train bone growth. They can stimulate it, but those don't work on everyone and the amount of increased growth isn't much.  

6-9 MONTHS for that to fully heal...he had surgery in January...he participted in a Pro Day at the end of April.  HUGE mistake!