2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2

[SoCalSkins]

1 hour ago, CobraCommander said:

The probability of that seems like it should be 0 but damn. That’s a sobering thought.

I was factoring in the new found luck with ousting Dan. 10% is being generous. The key is drafting and immediately moving on if it doesn’t work out. Too much of a sunk cost fallacy in the NFL.
 

Bryce Young will end up being garbage. Yet the Panthers will keep throwing coaches and resources at him to suck even more. 
 

There are probably 6 to 10 humans on earth who are capable of playing QB in the NFL at an elite level any given year and their ages vary from early 20s to 40. So realistically there is fewer than 1 in every draft. You probably know right away if you have one or not. 

 

[The Consigliere]

On 1/3/2024 at 2:48 PM, MisterPinstripe said:

Is there any QB that skyrocketed up draft boards at the end of the season that panned out?

Burrow was on nobodies top 10-20 anything on August 20something 2019, he was the #1 overall 8 months later. 

 

In fairness to Penix, he was ranked higher than Burrow was entering this final season a few months ago. I'll need to think some more about any others potentially going there. 

[The Consigliere]

On 1/4/2024 at 7:17 AM, method man said:

Mason Crosby screwed us last Sunday, missing that potential game winning FG

In fairness, dude is 8000 years old, and had missed 60% of his 50+ers the past two seasons. 

On 1/4/2024 at 7:04 AM, BrentMeisterGeneral said:

He must be terrible then 😉

What I was thinking, after the danny nickels debacle, I don't exactly have high confidence in their judgment, and nothing they've done since has been particularly impressive or honestly before that either. 

[mistertim]

3 hours ago, redskinss said:

I don't know the numbers but I'd think it'd be higher than ten percent wouldn't it?

 

The history of quarterbacks succeeding with the number two overall selection is iffy at best but I'd guess closer to 30 or 40 percent but I certainly could be wrong.

 

Edit, nevermind I Googled it, first overall is pretty good, second is ugly.

 

The hit rate on 1st round QBs isn't overall great, but the hit rate on QBs after the 1st round is abysmal.

 

I did some number crunching a while back to see the hit rates for successful QBs in various rounds over the past 20 years (though "successful QB" is a bit subjective) and I think I came up with something like 35-40% hit rate in the 1st round and <10% in all others.

 

Some people like to point out the exceptions in later rounds, but for every later round success there are boatloads who do nothing. 

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, profusion said:

 

RG III is the ultimate "what if", but his body was simply never going to withstand the rigors of NFL life.

 

As you say, the Redskins haven't drafted a true elite "franchise" QB since Baugh. Cousins and Rypien are probably the closest they've come to that, but I wouldn't consider either elite.

 

I do think there needs to be an asterisk beside this stat, though. I'd consider Theismann to have been "developed" by the Redskins, since his only experience prior to joining them was a few years in the CFL. He sat for four years behind Kilmer before he got the starting nod. It's such an odd thing, since the Redskins focused more on trades than the draft during the Allen, Pardee, and Gibbs eras.

 

You're probably right, but it seems like there's always that one guy who falls a long way, and he'd be my guess. Like you say, what happens at the combine may change the entire draft analysis.

Theismann played several seasons in the CFL back in the seventies. It wasn't the NFL, but it was a professional league. What I can't get my head around is how or why a team would trade a 1st in the mid 1970s for a guy who was drafted in the 4th round several years earlier. Sure it panned out, Theismann gifted us 6 top 11 seasons in six years from '78-84, but that was a ton to pay for a QB with zero NFL experience, who played fine in the CFL, but was valued as a 4th round talent a few years earlier? What the Redskins did back then was just so mind numbingly stupid so often it beggars belief. We're incredibly lucky we managed to skate around it to success sporadically in the seventies and the eighties and early nineties while getting ---- all out of the draft for decades on end with just a perfectly timed exception year or two in the early eighties and USFL dispersal drafts in the mid eighties. Man, that was such a crazy lucky run, great run all the same, but good lord did it mind ---- the ---- out of the fan base about team building. People still forget that the Redskins basically did a "D or F" level draft in every single draft after 1983 with largely no exceptions until 1999. That, not coincidentally, is exactly why the team imploded in 1993, and sucked consistently forever after, even once they finally righted things and began drafting sporadically at a D to C level in the aughts and last decade after such an interminable stretch of miserable drafting. You simply can't get nothing out of the draft, decade after decade and expect to sustain anything, particularly when your ability to acquire league average or better QB's through trades, and late round drafts ends. Eventually you pay the piper for that, which is why this team has been so wretched ever since I graduated high school in '93. 

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, RWJ said:

Ron, your late to the party, my friend.  This has been seen a couple times especially with the playoffs on the line last year.  No problems.  You need a break.  It's coming and I hope the best for you.  Dallas will not only have you for lunch but for breakfast, lunch and dinner at the end of the game, Sunday. 

A few of us mentioned this when he was hired. If you looked at his CV, it was pretty clear. The guy got a franchise QB, and produced a couple of mega outlier seasons with Newton, 12-4, 15-1, and 11-15 in '13, '15 and '17, and other than those 3 years, great years admittedly, he was 32-53-1 and all 9 of those season were with a franchise QB. He had 3 great seasons with Cam, and 6 mediocre to total --- seasons. It was always predictable that he'd be utter ---- here, which is one of the many reasons I wanted him to grab a franchise QB to start with, rather than saddle himself with total --- at the position considering he was garbage 6 out of 9 years in Carolina despite having a freak of a franchise guy. Seriously, what the hell did anyone think he'd accomplish with Alex Smith's corpse, the late Haskins, Heinicke's noodle arm etc? Not surprisingly, he's 26-39 here, which in a way is shocking considering how inept the QB play has been the whole time, when you take that knowledge in tow, he's actually coached better here than in Carolina. In Carolina he actually had weapons, a franchise QB and a defense, here he basically had a decent defense and not much else, and still managed to produce a .350-.400 team, but it hasn't mattered because #1 he was never a great coach in the first place, just a good house cleaner and man manager (I think anyway), and #2 he never got that QB because he was too stupid to do so when he could ('20, '21), and too late to do it for his own good ('22). 

[actorguy1]

This thread is 90% Draft discussion and 10% about how the team can secure the 2nd pick.

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, SoCalSkins said:

I was factoring in the new found luck with ousting Dan. 10% is being generous. The key is drafting and immediately moving on if it doesn’t work out. Too much of a sunk cost fallacy in the NFL.
 

Bryce Young will end up being garbage. Yet the Panthers will keep throwing coaches and resources at him to suck even more. 
 

There are probably 6 to 10 humans on earth who are capable of playing QB in the NFL at an elite level any given year and their ages vary from early 20s to 40. So realistically there is fewer than 1 in every draft. You probably know right away if you have one or not. 

 

It is interesting to think about how many became that guy over the past couple of decades, not being noticed at first. Kurt Warner, Rich Gannon, Jalen Hurts, Tony Romo (took a minute), there's also that other weird cohort/tier with Baker doing his weird Gannon, or is it Saberhagen impression, and if Love is hitting that's a delay, Goff, I don't know, Tua suddenly started having that old school 3rd year hit season, Alex Smith didn't become a franchise guy but he did go from a bust to average, hmmmm. I do think you're kinda right, but there does seem to be a collection of guys that seem to "get it" like 5-7 years in, that kind of Plunkett effect, but yeah, I do think in the modern NFL, you "know" really quick. It's very hard to think of guys that weren't clear early but then were, Hurts, and Tua are the only guys that seemed to suddenly show it later, and Love if he finally hits (he's hinting at it-his sputtering performances here and there lately I think coincided with Jayden Reed's injuries). 

[actorguy1]

 

 

[profusion]

2 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

You simply can't get nothing out of the draft, decade after decade and expect to sustain anything, particularly when your ability to acquire league average or better QB's through trades, and late round drafts ends. Eventually you pay the piper for that, which is why this team has been so wretched ever since I graduated high school in '93. 

 

You could get away with it back then because there was no salary cap and modern free agency hadn't been implemented yet. Bobby Beathard essentially kept in place the "trade picks for players" mentality that George Allen had implemented from '71-77. It worked because JKC was willing to pay as much as it took to have a great team every year.

 

In '93, it was a confluence of events: the Gibbs core got old, many of them had to be dumped for the team to come under the new salary cap, and other guys left in free agency. Charlie Casserly should have seen all this coming well in advance, but he did little to prepare. By 1994, it was essentially a brand new team, and it took 3-4 years to get back to being merely okay. To his credit, Casserly eventually rebuilt into that wonderful 1999 team, which Snyder sadly tore apart with his 'fantasy draft' approach to free agent signings.

51 minutes ago, actorguy1 said:

 

 

 

Has anyone told Ron yet that they're out of playoff contention?

Edited January 6 by profusion

[Rufus T Firefly]

2 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

Theismann played several seasons in the CFL back in the seventies. It wasn't the NFL, but it was a professional league. What I can't get my head around is how or why a team would trade a 1st in the mid 1970s for a guy who was drafted in the 4th round several years earlier. Sure it panned out, Theismann gifted us 6 top 11 seasons in six years from '78-84, but that was a ton to pay for a QB with zero NFL experience, who played fine in the CFL, but was valued as a 4th round talent a few years earlier? What the Redskins did back then was just so mind numbingly stupid so often it beggars belief. We're incredibly lucky we managed to skate around it to success sporadically in the seventies and the eighties and early nineties while getting ---- all out of the draft for decades on end with just a perfectly timed exception year or two in the early eighties and USFL dispersal drafts in the mid eighties. Man, that was such a crazy lucky run, great run all the same, but good lord did it mind ---- the ---- out of the fan base about team building. People still forget that the Redskins basically did a "D or F" level draft in every single draft after 1983 with largely no exceptions until 1999. That, not coincidentally, is exactly why the team imploded in 1993, and sucked consistently forever after, even once they finally righted things and began drafting sporadically at a D to C level in the aughts and last decade after such an interminable stretch of miserable drafting. You simply can't get nothing out of the draft, decade after decade and expect to sustain anything, particularly when your ability to acquire league average or better QB's through trades, and late round drafts ends. Eventually you pay the piper for that, which is why this team has been so wretched ever since I graduated high school in '93. 

That's not really true, though. Drafts were different back then.Teams came up with almost literal nothing draft classes all the time, even with 12 rounds. And Washington hd no 1sts most of those years. 

 

You can look up the San Fran drafts through those years, too. They were the team of the decade and built through the draft, but they had years with tons of extra picks, even extra 1s and did little with them. Years where they got a Harris Barton or Bubba Paris and no one else anyone could remember. 

 

We had a draft where we had one pick int eh first 4 rounds and ended up with Raleigh McKenzie, Barry Wilburn and Terry Orr. A draft in those days where you got Rypien, Kurt Gouveia and Alvin Walton is a very god draft. 

 

Though ultimately it was trades, FAs and the USFL supplemental draft where we shone the most in those years. 

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

For some of you, this is the biggest weekend of your lives.

[RWJ]

It doesn't matter and really does anyone think with the players telling Ron they want to pack it in with injuries and sit they really care?  Sad to say this but what else is RR supposed to say to the media when asked such a question.

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, profusion said:

 

You could get away with it back then because there was no salary cap and modern free agency hadn't been implemented yet. Bobby Beathard essentially kept in place the "trade picks for players" mentality that George Allen had implemented from '71-77. It worked because JKC was willing to pay as much as it took to have a great team every year.

 

In '93, it was a confluence of events: the Gibbs core got old, many of them had to be dumped for the team to come under the new salary cap, and other guys left in free agency. Charlie Casserly should have seen all this coming well in advance, but he did little to prepare. By 1994, it was essentially a brand new team, and it took 3-4 years to get back to being merely okay. To his credit, Casserly eventually rebuilt into that wonderful 1999 team, which Snyder sadly tore apart with his 'fantasy draft' approach to free agent signings.

 

Has anyone told Ron yet that they're out of playoff contention?

I'd argue against part of that take. I don't think Casserly rebuilt much of anything though I do recall rumors that he was overruled on his take of Dilfer over Shuler, and Galloway over Westbrook (both of which, if true, he was 100% right about and would have been reasonably valuable). I also have major issues with Beathard. You look at those drafts after '83 and it is ugly as hell, so he wasn't really doing Casserly any favors. They had that weird plan b free agency before they opened up normal free agency when was it? 93 or 94? I just remember distinctly we were rumored to have landed Reggie White, oh so close, and then suddenly, Green Bay grabbed him. After that what I recall distinctly is this:

we got nothing of legit value from the 1988 or 1989 drafts that Casserly began directing through around his last '99 class. Nothing. If that wasn't bad enough, the vast bulk of our free agent classes during those mid 90s years were largely trash as well. Sure he did a couple of things right, Ellard and Allen were great value signings, there were a couple of other decent guys, who was it, Rod Stephens? But overall, you look at those draft classes and its a barren wasteland, even guys I loved like Reggie Brooks bombed out, and then the critical first rounders? Oh Gawd, so painful. Bust after bust after bust: Bobby Wilson or whatever his name was in 1990, bust, Desmond Howard in 1992, bust, Tom Carter, the next Darrell Green, bust, Heath Shuler, good god level bust, Westbunk, it goes without saying, Andre Johnson, I recall his fame being the 1st rounder who never took a professional snap, Kenard Lang, I was bitter we didn't take Holmes, the better pass rusher, and annoyed at the idiotic side note in write ups that we were impressed at his ability to finish out a workout despite spraining an ankle, as it turned out, he wasn't that bad, good against the run, but johnny average as a pass rusher. And if you think to yourself, well, I'm sure he hit on some guys in the later rounds, you discover the ugly truth which is not much, I had great dreams for Leomont Evans, and Jamie Asher lol. Alas, it was just an endless litany of busts, and periodically peaking out from the dirt would be a Ricky Ervins, a decent value amidst nothing but garbage. 

 

To my mind anyway, he deserved his ---- canning in '99 Gilbert trade yielding Bailey and Jansen or not. You can't blow a decade straight of drafts and struggle badly with free agency building basically a .500 or worse squad at best and deserve any kind of extension. If the '99 team was meaningful, I tend to think it would have lasted, but it was as ephemeral as the '05, '07, '12 and '15's which were also bookened by horrid seasons. '98 was terrible, '00 was disappointing. So I don't really think Casserly built much of anything actually special in 1999. What was Brad Johnson really? Basically a 1990's Kirk Cousins? Which was nice enough, but Albert Connell and Michael Westbunk never repeated that quality season again, and Stephen Davis was gone soon enough, the defense was a shell of its former self a few years later. If that team was any good, it could have survived the 2000 spending spree without being .500 crap, or starting '01 with 5 straight losses, or fall to complete and total --- by 2002. But it did, so it was just more of the same. If Milstein had bought us instead of Snyder, maybe it goes different? We're probably half decent, .500+ for a little while, but a real contender? I just don't see it. 

 

But everything else, spot on. It's more a giant mohill I've built over a quibble about one teeny bit of your post I disagree about. Casserly and 1999. 

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

That's not really true, though. Drafts were different back then.Teams came up with almost literal nothing draft classes all the time, even with 12 rounds. And Washington hd no 1sts most of those years. 

 

You can look up the San Fran drafts through those years, too. They were the team of the decade and built through the draft, but they had years with tons of extra picks, even extra 1s and did little with them. Years where they got a Harris Barton or Bubba Paris and no one else anyone could remember. 

 

We had a draft where we had one pick int eh first 4 rounds and ended up with Raleigh McKenzie, Barry Wilburn and Terry Orr. A draft in those days where you got Rypien, Kurt Gouveia and Alvin Walton is a very god draft. 

 

Though ultimately it was trades, FAs and the USFL supplemental draft where we shone the most in those years. 

I grew up in the bay so maybe I just remember the rosters better because they were on every sunday and I just had to put up with it. 

1980-3 starters

1981-3 starters, 1 a HOF, 1 a pro bowler

1982-2 starters

1983-4 starters (names I remember) 1 a potential HOF (if craig doesn't fumble on the championship sealing run out the clock drive in Jan '91, he's in the hall)

1984-5 starters/reserves (I remember distinctly 5 different guys, including the day that Fuller was tragically paralyzed)

USFL Dispersal Draft-all whiffs

1985-1 starter (HOF) and 1 reserve

1986-the famed trade down draft where he acquired a million guys. 8 guys who I recall starting plenty of guys from one class. Insane. 

1987-remembered for the flagler whiff. 1 starter

1988-2 starters

 

I believe he retired before the '89 draft. but that puts us at 29 starters in 9 drafts, which is flat out nuts. Walsh basically had meh drafts in 1982, 1985, 1987, and 1988 and was brilliant otherwise. I would imagine 1982 and 1985 were harmed by having won the super bowl, and so they were picking very, very low, then again, they didn't really pick high again after 1981. 

 

I agree, kinda with your general premise, teams were much worse drafting back then and especially in the 60's and 70's, but our team was particularly bad in no small part because we didn't really value them appropriately, and we were on the far end of the spectrum in terms of ridiculous valuations of them. Its one thing if you are just joe average team, with mediocre understanding of the value of the draft, and the edges that lay within, but when you actively treat the picks like trash, you're basically on the low side of the tail so to speak of foolishness. 

 

I will give credit for us having our very own 1986 Niner class with the less ballyhooed, but equally impressive 1981 haul. 

[Conn]

8 hours ago, DiscoBob said:

 

....but he knows all the best places to get drugs and hookers....

Kind of a weird thing to say about a kid who doesn’t have those sorts of off field concerns. Stuff people are concerned about with him are more ephemeral personality questions—ego, vanity, leadership, toughness, entitlement. Impossible to tell from the outside but none of his issues are about getting into trouble or hanging around the wrong people. 

[Conn]

Surprise team that may try and trade way up?

 

Only thing standing in the way of the Bears making a big profit trade back with their natural pick is that they’re division rivals…

Edited January 6 by Conn

[Est.1974]

Putting a table in the hall is one thing, but trying to put the hall on a table is quite a task. No wonder it failed.

 

Edited January 6 by Est.1974

[Koolblue13]

Man, if our new GM sees something in one of the second tier guys at QB, we could get a dream haul for the No2.

[KDawg]

3 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Man, if our new GM sees something in one of the second tier guys at QB, we could get a dream haul for the No2.

Want to see the “trust the GM no matter what” crowd flip really fast?

[Koolblue13]

6 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Want to see the “trust the GM no matter what” crowd flip really fast?

I do. I really do.   

[DWinzit]

40 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Want to see the “trust the GM no matter what” crowd flip really fast?

Talk about this place blowing up!

 

But damn this team would be able to have a buge rebuild in one year with the draft an some decent FA selections

[88Comrade2000]

47 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Want to see the “trust the GM no matter what” crowd flip really fast?

I wouldn’t. They would have to believe that next round of qbs is better than Williams, Maye and Daniel’s.

 

There’s some talk that 5 qbs could go in the Top 10-15.

 

If we decide to trade down a little, we could pick up another 2nd rounder and at least a 25 1st rounder and possibly a 26 1st rounder.  That qb would have to be worth trading down for and you wouldn’t want to go down to far, since so many teams need a qb.

[@DCGoldPants]

57 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Want to see the “trust the GM no matter what” crowd flip really fast?

Not me. To be honest, if you LOVE 2 or 3 of those 1st round QBs, I question if you really loved any of them for your team. 

 

It would tell me their guy went 1.01 and they didn't value the others at 1.02 or 1.03 for the their build. 

Edited January 6 by @DCGoldPants

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

Want to see the “trust the GM no matter what” crowd flip really fast?

 

I won't flip.  But it better work.  If it doesn't work that's IMO a fatal mistake that the GM shouldn't be able to bounce back from -- pink slip no matter what else they get right.

 

 

Edited January 6 by Skinsinparadise