2024 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[CommanderInTheRye]

2 hours ago, Chump Bailey said:

I do feel some vindication

 

"The truth is, the Commanders, the two quarterbacks that they had in consideration at No. 2 were Jayden Daniels and J.J. McCarthy,"

 

If I had to make a non-homer wager on which rookie qb I think will have the best first season I'd go with McCarthy:

 

1. Offensive minded coach who has reputation of being a qb whisperer. 

2. Great receiving corps,  including best wr in league (imho).

3. Solid o-line

4. Doesn't need to play the hero to win games

 

 

Edited April 30 by CommanderInTheRye

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I've talked about him in the UDFA thread.  This dude looks like he can play.

 

In theory at least feels Peters killed it in this draft.

 

 

 

 

Quinn turned a garabage Dallas defense overnight when he got there -- one draft-one season complete turnaround.

 

Feels like they will do it again.

 

Among being a poorly coached team, the odd thing about Rivera as to building his roster on defense didn't seem to care a heck of a lot about depth at certain spots.  This regime clearly does.  I suspect they aren't done.

maybe it was you, or maybe someone posted him, and it was exciting, getting him as a UDFA feels like we got basically a pair of extra 6th or 7th rounders (along with the other DB we signed who wasn't quite at his level of promise). Very exciting.

 

On Quinn, I'm getting more excited over time, he's younger than I realized, I thought he was more 60ish, but instead he's my older brothers age, which I like, otoh, it looks like in '19 they were top 11-13 in defense, and in '20 they fell to around 23rd or 22nd and much worse in total yards given up. It's rather odd. How much of the change was bringing in a mega superstar in Michah Parsons, but regardless, a top 3ish defense after he arrived. I don't know what to think of it, the dallas d was good in '19, objectively below average to horrible in '20, and very good in '21 (the odd thing is there were a lot more good defenses in '19 than in '21, not sure why). 

 

Anyway, I remain a skeptic of the quick turn around idea. I like that we added an elite DT prospect, I don't think there's much argument against the idea that we got a top 20-25 level talent, basically an extra mid to later round 1st round talent in the DT, we probably added 2 defensive players via the draft that will have some degree of immediate impact as rotational support to the secondary and the DL, but with no edge talent really, the LB position got a legit talent, but not a lot behind him via FA, I just tend to think this build out will take 2 or 3 years, and that's fine. I don't expect the D to get back to where it was in '20-'22, I suspect it will be bottom third in '24. That's fine w/me though, long term that would serve us better than a quick jump into the top 10-15. 

 

But I am reasonably excited that we did a nice job plugging holes, and adding some nice long term talent infusions to transition to a new era. Really promising. 

 

But next year? I still expect us to be bottom 10, probably bottom 5-8, and again, that's fine, we need at least one more really crappy year before attaining mediocrity I'd like to think, and then hopefully advancing to excellent by '26 or '27. Suits me fine and so far so good. One of the things worth noting, also, is there wont be an effort to position for Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden etc next year, the QB class still has a couple of first rounders, but even the top guys are a tier below the top 3 to 4 from this year, so that, combined w/whats happened with various teams, suggests to me that only a few might bottom out: Carolina will again, Tennessee can't help, some injuries in the wrong places could do it to Oakland, NYG will probably struggle unless Nickels shows out with Nabers in house, Denver could be a mess and New England, will be a mess, but when I look around the league, not a lot of teams are likely to be god awful: New England, Tennessee, Oakland and Denver, Us, (the whole NFC and AFC South problem is they get to play eachother so probably nobody other than Tennessee and Carolina will totally suck), Arizona is going to bounce back, not sure what the rams will do with an aging QB but they have the potential to collapse with that problem. But really, I do put us in that clump of the worst 7 or 8 teams, we aren't the worst in that pile, but we'll probably be in the middle, with the potential to pick between as high as 3rd or 4th, and as low as 7th to 10th or 11th. 

Edited April 30 by The Consigliere

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

FA was very dominated by defense.  The idea some of us talked about focusing on offense in the draft and defense in FA.  But they ended up drafting even more defenders.

But note when the defensive players were drafted, it was less valuable capital:

 

Offense: 2nd pick, 53rd pick, 67th pick, 100th pick (4 of our top 6 picks)

Defense: 36th pick, 50th pick, 139th, 161st, 222nd 

 

If you actually measure the picks by draft capital value, I wouldn't be surprised if the offense has the bulk of the value. Lets be straight, 139th, 161st, and 22nd's are dart throws from 15-20 feet away, 2nd, 53rd, and 67th? Those are dart throws from 5-7 feet away. 

 

To me, they played the board, people are insisting it was a defense heavy draft, but really it was only so on day 3, and on day 3, you are hoping to hit on 1 starter if you're lucky and a reserve for 1 contract. It's the day 1 and day 2 capital that needs to hit and should at least be eventually worth a 2nd contract, and providing some value (especially top 30-50 guys). 

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

maybe it was you, or maybe someone posted him, and it was exciting, getting him as a UDFA feels like we got basically a pair of extra 6th or 7th rounders (along with the other DB we signed who wasn't quite at his level of promise). Very exciting.

 

On Quinn, I'm getting more excited over time, he's younger than I realized, I thought he was more 60ish, but instead he's my older brothers age, which I like, otoh, it looks like in '19 they were top 11-13 in defense, and in '20 they fell to around 23rd or 22nd and much worse in total yards given up. It's rather odd. How much of the change was bringing in a mega superstar in Michah Parsons, but regardless, a top 3ish defense after he arrived. I don't know what to think of it, the dallas d was good in '19, objectively below average to horrible in '20, and very good in '21 (the odd thing is there were a lot more good defenses in '19 than in '21, not sure why). 

 

Anyway, I remain a skeptic of the quick turn around idea. I like that we added an elite DT prospect, I don't think there's much argument against the idea that we got a top 20-25 level talent, basically an extra mid to later round 1st round talent in the DT, we probably added 2 defensive players via the draft that will have some degree of immediate impact as rotational support to the secondary and the DL, but with no edge talent really, the LB position got a legit talent, but not a lot behind him via FA, I just tend to think this build out will take 2 or 3 years, and that's fine. I don't expect the D to get back to where it was in '20-'22, I suspect it will be bottom third in '24. That's fine w/me though, long term that would serve us better than a quick jump into the top 10-15. 

 

But I am reasonably excited that we did a nice job plugging holes, and adding some nice long term talent infusions to transition to a new era. Really promising. 

 

But next year? I still expect us to be bottom 10, probably bottom 5-8, and again, that's fine, we need at least one more really crappy year before attaining mediocrity I'd like to think, and then hopefully advancing to excellent by '26 or '27. Suits me fine and so far so good. One of the things worth noting, also, is there wont be an effort to position for Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden etc next year, the QB class still has a couple of first rounders, but even the top guys are a tier below the top 3 to 4 from this year, so that, combined w/whats happened with various teams, suggests to me that only a few might bottom out: Carolina will again, Tennessee can't help, some injuries in the wrong places could do it to Oakland, NYG will probably struggle unless Nickels shows out with Nabers in house, Denver could be a mess and New England, will be a mess, but when I look around the league, not a lot of teams are likely to be god awful: New England, Tennessee, Oakland and Denver, Us, (the whole NFC and AFC South problem is they get to play eachother so probably nobody other than Tennessee and Carolina will totally suck), Arizona is going to bounce back, not sure what the rams will do with an aging QB but they have the potential to collapse with that problem. But really, I do put us in that clump of the worst 7 or 8 teams, we aren't the worst in that pile, but we'll probably be in the middle, with the potential to pick between as high as 3rd or 4th, and as low as 7th to 10th or 11th. 

 

Yeah I watched the corner and liked him, has a shot to be a starter.

 

Yeah I love Quinn's energy and drive.  I heard he's coming into work at 5 am everyday just about and is obssessed with doing it better this time. 

 

Rivera on contrary if you listened to his post firing presser felt that he had nothing to learn from his Carolina stint and seem to coach this team with a lack of urgency.

 

Feels night and day this new regime from the last.

 

Not to mention with the benefit of hindsight, we've had some bad FO's but I think Rivera ended up the worst of the bad lot.  Classy guy so tough to link with Cerrato and Bruce who both lacked class.  But if you look at the body of their work.  Cerrato >> Rivera.  Bruce >> Rivera.  Rivera was a train wreck as to personnel. 

36 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

But note when the defensive players were drafted, it was less valuable capital:

 

Offense: 2nd pick, 53rd pick, 67th pick, 100th pick (4 of our top 6 picks)

Defense: 36th pick, 50th pick, 139th, 161st, 222nd 

 

If you actually measure the picks by draft capital value, I wouldn't be surprised if the offense has the bulk of the value. Lets be straight, 139th, 161st, and 22nd's are dart throws from 15-20 feet away, 2nd, 53rd, and 67th? Those are dart throws from 5-7 feet away. 

 

To me, they played the board, people are insisting it was a defense heavy draft, but really it was only so on day 3, and on day 3, you are hoping to hit on 1 starter if you're lucky and a reserve for 1 contract. It's the day 1 and day 2 capital that needs to hit and should at least be eventually worth a 2nd contract, and providing some value (especially top 30-50 guys). 

 

 

 

 

QB was a given.  The next top 2 picks was defense.  But per my orginal post, the whole off season wasn't just the draft.  FA was heavy on defense.  

Edited April 30 by Skinsinparadise

[The Consigliere]

The sneaky thing about Cerrato was that I knew coming in, he'd be a disaster. If Clark and Policy weren't interested in taking him w/them to Cleveland after screwing up the Niners in the later nineties he had to be pretty bad and stories circulated back then of how bad, but what's funny is that beyond the toady nonsense with Snyder, Cerrato's draft CV is vastly better than Casserly's. You compare Casserly '89-'99, and Cerrato '00-to whenever he was ejected ('09 I think?), he was just a D to D+ GM where Casserly was an emphatic F, probably worse than an F. 

 

On Ron, as awful as it is to say, considering things you mentioned during this last season, I wonder if he was just flat out demoralized, fighting cancer, working for Snyder, things not working out, clearly on a "you've got 1 year" and knowing there was no chance. I wonder if he just kind of just checked out. He was aware that the only way he'd be back was if Sam Howell was Joe Burrow and the rest of the team stayed healthy and over performed, and neither were likely. I wonder if he just quit in general.

Otoh, all his drafts sucked. But yeah, he clearly seemed over it completely this season. It's also worth noting, and I think I mentioned it when he was hired, over here. If you looked at his Carolina CV, it was basically trash. What you saw was pretty obvious, he lucked into the 1.01 in an elite no doubt about QB class (Newton) in his first year. He produced three quality seasons, and one Cam in God Mode Season, and otherwise the Panethers underperformed, and then fell apart as Cam's body fell apart. Whatever happened with the Panthers was largely a product of Cam Newton (and that stud LB didn't hurt either). They were sub .500 in 5 of his 8 years there, never as horrible as we were in '23, but generally speaking, they were largely meh. '11, '12, '14, '16, '18 and '19 were all disappointing. So when things went sideways it was pretty obvious, always, what happened, and that, not coincidentally was part of the reason I was so surprised when he ignored QB in '20 and '21. It was so so so obvious that Cam was everything when he was in Carolina, and just to make do with a 10th to 15th percentile QB room '20-'23 was so utterly asinine it was mind boggling. Then again I guess he did try to solve it with former never was types like Wentz, but he should have known after he was quickly cashiered out of Philly and Indy, that that plan was hopeless. 

 

5am doesn't really move the needle too much though, Joe was that, apparently McVay was that, and I'm that (basically 515-545 wake up time the past 15 years for my work)...but I do like his energy, fire, and the reality that he does seem to max teams out, other than '20 with Atlanta when Ryan was semi-cooked. 

Edited April 30 by The Consigliere

[Skinsinparadise]

4 hours ago, Chump Bailey said:

I do feel some vindication

 

"The truth is, the Commanders, the two quarterbacks that they had in consideration at No. 2 were Jayden Daniels and J.J. McCarthy,"

 

I'd feel vindication on your end as to how Peters felt.

 

But clearly the Giants, Patriots felt Maye > McCarthy

 

I don't get the sense that Peters thought it was close between Daniels and McCarthy.  A bunch of narratives (including from Keim) that Peters was smitten with Daniels from the jump.  But clearly they weren't as high on Maye as some other teams.

 

Digesting a ton of narratives-leaks.  This much seems clear.

 

A.  Scouts-coaches were much higher on Daniels than the mock drafters.  Some mock drafters were big on Daniels but they seem to think its more even between Daniels and Maye.  Whereas scouts-coaches felt Daniels was a clear peg better

 

B.    Scouts-coaches were higher on Maye than they were on McCarthy with some outlier exceptions.  This team being one of those outlier exceptions.

 

But will see what happens.  I was higher on Maye than most.  Also higher on Daniels than most.  Will see how it plays out, I don't think anyone is vindicated until it plays out.

 

The only vindication for some right now is there were people on the QB thread convinced that Peters loved Maye and any move towards a different QB had to be fueled by Quinn and others.  Clearly that was not the case.

[Chump Bailey]

22 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I'd feel vindication on your end as to how Peters felt.

 

Yep. I'm one of the few to have JJ their #2 (and to go on the record as such  at the risk of much ridicule) so in that sense I do feel as though my assessment of him was not completely off-base - though it was Daniels who assumed that position for most of the duration. As you said though, only time will tell nobody has a crystal ball. 

[KDawg]

7 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

Yep. I'm one of the few to have JJ their #2 (and to go on the record as such  at the risk of much ridicule) so in that sense I do feel as though my assessment of him was not completely off-base - though it was Daniels who assumed that position for most of the duration. As you said though, only time will tell nobody has a crystal ball. 

I do. This is the year of Buechele.

[Warhead36]

I don't think its unreasonable to think that Peters may have loved Maye at the end of the season, but once he got to dive into Daniels(and I guess McCarthy) tape more he pivoted. Remember he emphasized how much he didn't really look at the QBs in that much detail when he was still with the 49ers.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

The sneaky thing about Cerrato was that I knew coming in, he'd be a disaster. If Clark and Policy weren't interested in taking him w/them to Cleveland after screwing up the Niners in the later nineties he had to be pretty bad and stories circulated back then of how bad, but what's funny is that beyond the toady nonsense with Snyder, Cerrato's draft CV is vastly better than Casserly's. You compare Casserly '89-'99, and Cerrato '00-to whenever he was ejected ('09 I think?), he was just a D to D+ GM where Casserly was an emphatic F, probably worse than an F. 

 

On Ron, as awful as it is to say, considering things you mentioned during this last season, I wonder if he was just flat out demoralized, fighting cancer, working for Snyder, things not working out, clearly on a "you've got 1 year" and knowing there was no chance. I wonder if he just kind of just checked out. He was aware that the only way he'd be back was if Sam Howell was Joe Burrow and the rest of the team stayed healthy and over performed, and neither were likely. I wonder if he just quit in general.

Otoh, all his drafts sucked. But yeah, he clearly seemed over it completely this season. It's also worth noting, and I think I mentioned it when he was hired, over here. If you looked at his Carolina CV, it was basically trash. What you saw was pretty obvious, he lucked into the 1.01 in an elite no doubt about QB class (Newton) in his first year. He produced three quality seasons, and one Cam in God Mode Season, and otherwise the Panethers underperformed, and then fell apart as Cam's body fell apart. Whatever happened with the Panthers was largely a product of Cam Newton (and that stud LB didn't hurt either). They were sub .500 in 5 of his 8 years there, never as horrible as we were in '23, but generally speaking, they were largely meh. '11, '12, '14, '16, '18 and '19 were all disappointing. So when things went sideways it was pretty obvious, always, what happened, and that, not coincidentally was part of the reason I was so surprised when he ignored QB in '20 and '21. It was so so so obvious that Cam was everything when he was in Carolina, and just to make do with a 10th to 15th percentile QB room '20-'23 was so utterly asinine it was mind boggling. Then again I guess he did try to solve it with former never was types like Wentz, but he should have known after he was quickly cashiered out of Philly and Indy, that that plan was hopeless. 

 

5am doesn't really move the needle too much though, Joe was that, apparently McVay was that, and I'm that (basically 515-545 wake up time the past 15 years for my work)...but I do like his energy, fire, and the reality that he does seem to max teams out, other than '20 with Atlanta when Ryan was semi-cooked. 

 

Ron's one big accomplishment was FA in his first year.  Knocked it out of the park.  But Kyle Smith was heavy involved in that.  When Kyle left, Ron struggled after that.  FA sucked the draft sucked. His trades sucked.

 

He was as delusional as Bruce and Vinny and also even oddly arrogant like them at times too.  But a much nicer and classier guy.   Maybe Dan's delusion-arrogance filters to his employees.

 

He basicaly left the organization as a classier one than what he inherited but with a worse roster than he inherited.

 

Just hearing how this new regime is a breath of fresh air brings it home.     I don't fault Ron for not working around the clock because of his health issues so I get that.  But otherwise this comes off as a regime that is much more humble and self aware while being much more hardworking and competent.  But will see.

Edited April 30 by Skinsinparadise

[Conn]

16 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I don't think its unreasonable to think that Peters may have loved Maye at the end of the season, but once he got to dive into Daniels(and I guess McCarthy) tape more he pivoted. Remember he emphasized how much he didn't really look at the QBs in that much detail when he was still with the 49ers.

In the context of an experienced and long-tenured scout, that would tend to make me think that he didn’t “love” anyone at QB at that time. I don’t think guys like him fall in love that easily before they have a chance to dig in, especially given how process-oriented we know he is. 

[Skinsinparadise]

20 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I do. This is the year of Buechele.

 

Over Vaderson?

[KDawg]

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Over Vaderson?

 

C'mon, man. Be serious. Buechele is a specimen.

 

But shout out to Vaderson and Ben Sinnobi. 

 

I guess I'll just have to live with Daniels.

[Chump Bailey]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

I don't think its unreasonable to think that Peters may have loved Maye at the end of the season, but once he got to dive into Daniels(and I guess McCarthy) tape more he pivoted. Remember he emphasized how much he didn't really look at the QBs in that much detail when he was still with the 49ers.

 

I hope passing on Maye does not bite us in the butt cheeks down the road. I had my reservations about Maye, but there were certainly appealing aspects too. 

[kingdaddy]

2 hours ago, Conn said:

In the context of an experienced and long-tenured scout, that would tend to make me think that he didn’t “love” anyone at QB at that time. I don’t think guys like him fall in love that easily before they have a chance to dig in, especially given how process-oriented we know he is. 

I'll bet Kingsbury loved Daniels all along....

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

For the Beebe lovers here, can be play Center? Cowboys fans are saying he'll compete for starting Center job.

[Koolblue13]

Just now, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

For the Beebe lovers here, can be play Center? Cowboys fans are saying he'll compete for starting Center job.

I don't think he has.

[HTTRDynasty]

 

[skinny21]

17 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

But note when the defensive players were drafted, it was less valuable capital:

 

Offense: 2nd pick, 53rd pick, 67th pick, 100th pick (4 of our top 6 picks)

Defense: 36th pick, 50th pick, 139th, 161st, 222nd 

 

If you actually measure the picks by draft capital value, I wouldn't be surprised if the offense has the bulk of the value. Lets be straight, 139th, 161st, and 22nd's are dart throws from 15-20 feet away, 2nd, 53rd, and 67th? Those are dart throws from 5-7 feet away. 

 

To me, they played the board, people are insisting it was a defense heavy draft, but really it was only so on day 3, and on day 3, you are hoping to hit on 1 starter if you're lucky and a reserve for 1 contract. It's the day 1 and day 2 capital that needs to hit and should at least be eventually worth a 2nd contract, and providing some value (especially top 30-50 guys). 

 

 

 

SIP kinda mentioned this, but I think the idea was in context of upping the supporting cast for our young qb (ie he wouldn’t count in the evaluation).  

On the flip side, via FA and the draft, they added 2 TEs, a 3rd down back, a tackle (2 if you count Lucas), a guy to compete at LG, a slot receiver (2 if you count resigning Crowder), and upgraded center.  Would have loved if we’d managed to nail down/solve the tackle spots and add a good #2 receiver, but you can’t do it all in one offseason.

21 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

This suggests our scouts performed pretty well, even if its not a given.

[ntotoro]

Has GMAP even done an overhaul of the scouting staff yet... ? Makes me wonder where the real problem was before he got here.

Edited May 1 by ntotoro

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

For the Beebe lovers here, can be play Center? Cowboys fans are saying he'll compete for starting Center job.

 

Probably.  I get the logic to try and work around your first round pick, but the obvious solution is to play Guyton at RT, Smith at LT, and bench Steele because he sucks.

[Warhead36]

19 minutes ago, ntotoro said:

Has GMAP even done an overhaul of the scouting staff yet... ? Makes me wonder where the real problem was before he got here.

I think most teams scouts are more or less the same. It comes down to how they're utilized. Any scout who is highly regarded will get promoted and go up through the ranks anyway, and will either end up Peter Principling their way failing upwards to an executive role(see Vinny Cerrato) or is truly elite at their craft and end up a top notch GM(hopefully Adam Peters).

[Koolblue13]

4 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

Probably.  I get the logic to try and work around your first round pick, but the obvious solution is to play Guyton at RT, Smith at LT, and bench Steele because he sucks.

Yep, they drafted Smith last year to replace the other Smith this year and are using the Beebe for the hole on the left and will have a dominate left side because of it.

[ntotoro]

7 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I think most teams scouts are more or less the same. It comes down to how they're utilized. Any scout who is highly regarded will get promoted and go up through the ranks anyway, and will either end up Peter Principling their way failing upwards to an executive role(see Vinny Cerrato) or is truly elite at their craft and end up a top notch GM(hopefully Adam Peters).

 

Exactly what I was thinking/assuming/imagining. GMAP has, in one UFA, Draft and UDFA class already gotten more with this current staff than Paddleboat Ron got in all his time. Turned everything I thought right on my head, that the scouts were all a reflection of their management. Turned out they were a product of it rather than a reflection of it.

 

"...but Brawndo's got electrolytes... "

 

Turned out they just needed water all along.

[BayouBrave86]

21 hours ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

If I had to make a non-homer wager on which rookie qb I think will have the best first season I'd go with McCarthy:

 

1. Offensive minded coach who has reputation of being a qb whisperer. 

2. Great receiving corps,  including best wr in league (imho).

3. Solid o-line

4. Doesn't need to play the hero to win games

 

 

I don’t think JJ will even be the starter week 1.