2024 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[The Consigliere]

7 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

Our need at OT isn't desperate.  IOL is where our need is desperate.  Leno and Wylie are very underrated by this fan base.  And there are 10 OTs in this class good enough to go top 50.  Do you think one in three picks before 36 will be OT?  I definitely don't.  OT is the deepest position first and second round position this year, we'll be fine letting the draft come to us.

I could see us moving up. They always have "types" they like best, and there will be a run on OT's especially because of the paucity of talent of other positions. Traditionally RB gets at least one or two doofus overdrafts in round 1 and then a bunch of aggressive first half of round 2 selections but the RB cohort is the worst in decades. No RB's are going top 35. The DB group aint all that either, I think the typically reasonable IOL group is less than ideal, the edge and DT classes are underwhelming too. QB, WR, and OT seem plentiful. I could imagine all the QB's we have with a top 40-50 ranking being gone by 36, it's definitely possible. I also agree that if they can sit, they will, and let it come to them. But squeaky bum time will definitely hit if you see OT 6 or 7 get peeled off by pick 25. At that point, people could decide "we gotta move up". We'll see, I would imagine it will depend on how highly we have the top interior lineman rated, if we have a couple of them plus the OT's rated in that 25-40 zone, I imagine we'll sit tight, but I could see us moving if we anticipate our preferred targets being picked off before our pick. Teams have their favorites within tiers, and once that tier of favorites are gone, well, your out of luck. That's kind of how Howell lasted to the fifth round. The teams that liked them either picked their QB or already had one, and the teams that didn't like him, also picked someone else. We'll see. I think its 65/35 were safe, but I definitely don't think it's 90/10 or 80/20 we'll have a guy. That's why I asked what people think the asking price would be to move up to 25-33 the other day. How much would it cost to move from 36-day 2 pick 1, or 36 to the last 5-10 picks of round 1? I'm not sure. I'm not sold we'd have to trade our second, or if we did, that we'd have to do too much more than a our 2nd plus another pick (our other 2nd or a 3rd) for their higher round 1 or 2 pick, and a lower version of our 2nd or 3rd. I could live with that if the tier falls out. Normally I'd say hell no, because honestly, we need everything, so a tiered out DB, Edge, LB, OT, IOL, WR will be there that's worth the pick, guaranteed. Our 2nd is just too high. But, we HAVE to give the new QB a better OL than we gave Howell, we have too, and some of that will be free agent moves to both replace a starter or starters and to add better talent to the second unit but we also have to land a top 50 overall player rated in the OL cohort in this class, period. We have too. And if they're all peeled off before 36, good lord are we gonna feel stupid. 

 

So I do think it's possible if we only have one or two OL's total left on our board worth the 36th/40th picks, and the pick is only in that 1.25-1.30 range? I bet we trade up, I'd be shocked if we didn't. Otherwise, yeah, they sit tight. Definitely going to be a nervy late Thursday Night a few months from now. 

[The Consigliere]

3 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

The draft is wonky. Look at Wrights slide last year. Lael Collins went in the 7th or undrafted. This year a guy like Mims could slide to day three because of medicals and then have a healthy 12 year career, while Alt never gets up to NFL speed.

 

But I do think some of these tackles are dropping to 3/4/5 round territory.

Collins was entirely a product of him having dating a girl who ended up getting murdered. Teams couldn't handle the fact that he knew and dated someone who was murdered, and the cops making a point to tell teams that he was just needed for background didn't matter. Nobody would even consider him. It was crazy, guy had a top 20-40 grade. But it happened. 

 

But you're also on point in general, there are always guys that slip, usually because of medicals, sometimes because of due diligence with mental make up, Dalvin Cook supposedly fell because of his injury history, and just being very tight with old school friends who were in the gang thing in Florida. Sometimes its more nebulous, I remember the odd dropping of the Tyler's in the '13 QB class. Early on they were considered top 50 guys with a chance to go round 1, then they dropped, and dropped, and dropped, Tyler Bray and Tyler Wilson. 

 

I wish I could keep a better log of these things so I could figure out when and why the NFL goes off script and when they're right to do so and wrong. Colt Brennan is an example of a guy I had hoped they were wrong about, highly recruited, great arm, all that, was so excited when we drafted him, but he had a pain killer addiction and on top of that, the NFL was just right when it came to scouting that guy. Poor guy passed away, just like Haskins a few years later. 

 

Its definitely a wonky thing. The mental makeup piece is definitely the undiscovered country of all of this. 

[Darrell Green Fan]

23 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

I could see us moving up. They always have "types" they like best, and there will be a run on OT's especially because of the paucity of talent of other positions. Traditionally RB gets at least one or two doofus overdrafts in round 1 and then a bunch of aggressive first half of round 2 selections but the RB cohort is the worst in decades. No RB's are going top 35. The DB group aint all that either, I think the typically reasonable IOL group is less than ideal, the edge and DT classes are underwhelming too. QB, WR, and OT seem plentiful. I could imagine all the QB's we have with a top 40-50 ranking being gone by 36, it's definitely possible. I also agree that if they can sit, they will, and let it come to them. But squeaky bum time will definitely hit if you see OT 6 or 7 get peeled off by pick 25. At that point, people could decide "we gotta move up". We'll see, I would imagine it will depend on how highly we have the top interior lineman rated, if we have a couple of them plus the OT's rated in that 25-40 zone, I imagine we'll sit tight, but I could see us moving if we anticipate our preferred targets being picked off before our pick. Teams have their favorites within tiers, and once that tier of favorites are gone, well, your out of luck. That's kind of how Howell lasted to the fifth round. The teams that liked them either picked their QB or already had one, and the teams that didn't like him, also picked someone else. We'll see. I think its 65/35 were safe, but I definitely don't think it's 90/10 or 80/20 we'll have a guy. That's why I asked what people think the asking price would be to move up to 25-33 the other day. How much would it cost to move from 36-day 2 pick 1, or 36 to the last 5-10 picks of round 1? I'm not sure. I'm not sold we'd have to trade our second, or if we did, that we'd have to do too much more than a our 2nd plus another pick (our other 2nd or a 3rd) for their higher round 1 or 2 pick, and a lower version of our 2nd or 3rd. I could live with that if the tier falls out. Normally I'd say hell no, because honestly, we need everything, so a tiered out DB, Edge, LB, OT, IOL, WR will be there that's worth the pick, guaranteed. Our 2nd is just too high. But, we HAVE to give the new QB a better OL than we gave Howell, we have too, and some of that will be free agent moves to both replace a starter or starters and to add better talent to the second unit but we also have to land a top 50 overall player rated in the OL cohort in this class, period. We have too. And if they're all peeled off before 36, good lord are we gonna feel stupid. 

 

So I do think it's possible if we only have one or two OL's total left on our board worth the 36th/40th picks, and the pick is only in that 1.25-1.30 range? I bet we trade up, I'd be shocked if we didn't. Otherwise, yeah, they sit tight. Definitely going to be a nervy late Thursday Night a few months from now. 

 

I would like to think our new people are smart enough not to panic when there is a run on OTs.  If that happens then better players at other positions are falling.  So rather than trade assets to move up to reach for the 9th rated tackle I hope they sit tight and follow their board. This team needs good players and upgrades at virtually every position.  

[Conn]

7 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

I would like to think our new people are smart enough not to panic when there is a run on OTs.  If that happens then better players at other positions are falling.  So rather than trade assets to move up to reach for the 9th rated tackle I hope they sit tight and follow their board. This team needs good players and upgrades at virtually every position.  

It kinda depends. Teams are going to be all over the place on these OT’s. Very possible that the 8th-9th OT that’s falling at warp speed toward you may actually be your 3rd-4th rated guy at the position, it just depends what traits our dudes are looking for. 

[The Consigliere]

Yes, which is a good point. I took another tack, arguing that because all teams have their own preferences, our tier of OT's and interior OL's will look different that others and could possibly run out, but your point is equally valid. We could rank a guy 5th that say, the Chiefs or Niners or Cowboys or whatever might rank 9th, and as a result they fall into our laps. That could totally happen.

 

I agree with DGF, that because we need everything, we shouldn't make panic moves, but we all know that Howell's eval was botched this past season in part by being given a dog---- OL for protection. It hampered our ability ot find out what he truly is. Now, we'll only figure the truth out in one of two ways: 1. the QB we draft gets hurt or 2. He excels, or not elsewhere. If we'd given him a legit OL, and better weapons than the 59th and 70th WR's in the league at separation, we'd know better, but we didn't. Do we really think we should pass on OL help in round 2 because we have needs everywhere? Isn't our biggest need to protect the QB we draft with the #2? It's such an enormous need that some want us to trade down and do that instead of taking a QB at 2. So how bad would it be to say, do the Titans Levis trade from last year? Our equivalent of that would be:

 

We give up: Pick 40, pick 67, 2025 3rd

We get: Pick 33, pick 85 (imagining the Cardinals mid 3rd was actually the panthers)

 

A trade like that is almost exactly what the Titans did to move up to get Levis last year. 

 

The cost is basically turning an early 3rd into a mid 3rd, and losing a future third, to move up about 10 slots in round 2. 

 

But basically what I want to know, is what would it cost to move from either 36 or 40 to go inside the 25-32 zone, or to 33. 

 

Because honestly, if I love an OL that is there in the 25-33 area, and I'm skeptical he's gonna fall to 36, I probably do move up, particularly if I don't have to lose a pick, but just move down in a later round. I'd seriously consider that. How many of the teams picking in that 25-35 zone need OL help? How many might trade out for teams that do? I don't know, but it would certainly make me nervous. I'd be open to moving up and moving down, depending upon how the board played.

 

I will say, if we had the caliber OL we had 2016-2021 or 2000-2010, I wouldn't give a second thought to this. I'd look at my tiers, and just pull the best player on my board left from the board that played DB, Edge, LB, OT, IOL, or WR or trade down if there were enough left, that I was positive I could move down and still get a guy in my tier (especially considering I already also have my 40th pick in my back pocket). What gives me pause is that all we have is basically Leno, a third round pick in Stromberg, and Cosmi, and then a giant pile of ----. We'll add more in FA, but we need to add legit tools like we did with Cosmi, and hopefully Stromberg. We'll see. 

 

I happen to think we'll probably just peel off an OL at 36 or 40, no worries, and then take another guy or trade down with that second (I think we may trade down, considering the fact that with 36, 40 and 67, we can afford to move down and add even more picks, but that's pure speculation.

 

We'll see, I'm just curious, I definitely think there's a chance, probably in the 25-40% area that we either move up or down with one of the 2nds. 

[Going Commando]

14 hours ago, mhd24 said:

You think Fashanu can play tackle, or is he destined to be AVT 2.0 and transition to guard?

 

Oh I think I would play him at tackle for sure.  IMO you can live with run blocking limitations at OT better than you can at OG.  Your guards are usually the heavy lifters for your run game.  If I have to pick between pass pro or run blocking excellence in my OT, I'd go for pass pro.  That's why I still like Fashanu and Latham over Alt even though I think Alt is a much better run blocker than them.

 

Fashanu's pass pro is really good, and I think it's arguably the best pass pro in the class.  I'm keeping him at OL2 because of that.

[Conn]

Every year my favorite part of the draft is parsing who’s left going into Round 2, salivating over fallers and trying to calculate if any of the best talent will fall to us in theory (of course we always make wacky off the wall 2nd round picks in our modern history so it hasn’t really been enjoyable at all in practice).

 

Man is that going to be a much more fun experience this year. Higher picks, more picks, competent usage of those assets. Day 2 is gonna be the bomb. Wouldn’t be surprised to see us trade back at least once that night. 
 

By the end of Day 2 we’ll have taken at least 5 strong swings at future foundational players. On a roster that starts 22-ish players that’s a HUGE potential infusion of talent. Include whatever we acquire with our FA bucks in that haul and before you even hit the mid rounds, the roster is looking very very different. 

Edited January 26 by Conn

[skinny21]

1 hour ago, Conn said:

Every year my favorite part of the draft is parsing who’s left going into Round 2, salivating over fallers and trying to calculate if any of the best talent will fall to us in theory (of course we always make wacky off the wall 2nd round picks in our modern history so it hasn’t really been enjoyable at all in practice).

 

Man is that going to be a much more fun experience this year. Higher picks, more picks, competent usage of those assets. Day 2 is gonna be the bomb. Wouldn’t be surprised to see us trade back at least once that night. 
 

By the end of Day 2 we’ll have taken at least 5 strong swings at future foundational players. On a roster that starts 22-ish players that’s a HUGE potential infusion of talent. Include whatever we acquire with our FA bucks in that haul and before you even hit the mid rounds, the roster is looking very very different. 

Man, I’m with you on every piece here.  I’ll add that I think returning players are going to be seriously excited about landing the top GM candidate and (potentially) top HC candidate.  I think we’ll see serious player buy-in.

[Koolblue13]

5 hours ago, Conn said:

Every year my favorite part of the draft is parsing who’s left going into Round 2, salivating over fallers and trying to calculate if any of the best talent will fall to us in theory (of course we always make wacky off the wall 2nd round picks in our modern history so it hasn’t really been enjoyable at all in practice).

 

Man is that going to be a much more fun experience this year. Higher picks, more picks, competent usage of those assets. Day 2 is gonna be the bomb. Wouldn’t be surprised to see us trade back at least once that night. 
 

By the end of Day 2 we’ll have taken at least 5 strong swings at future foundational players. On a roster that starts 22-ish players that’s a HUGE potential infusion of talent. Include whatever we acquire with our FA bucks in that haul and before you even hit the mid rounds, the roster is looking very very different. 

I love day 2 and am really excited. That's where the bulk of your team comes from. Positions like IOL, DBs, LBers always seem to come from there and with how successful Peters has been on day three makes me even more stoked. This should be the best draft we've had in a very long time and our roster should get a heck of a lot younger.

[Warhead36]

I just hope we draft someone Ive actually heard of in round 2. No more WHO? Picks like Mathis and Martin. 

[Darrell Green Fan]

Yeah I think we are all confident that Peters can find players later in the draft.  I'd love a trade back or 2 and give them even morel bullets.  .  

[JamesMadisonSkins]

54 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I just hope we draft someone Ive actually heard of in round 2. No more WHO? Picks like Mathis and Martin. 

 

For me, it's more "WTF" picks. The year we drafted them, I actually had done a majority of my mocks drafting BOTH guys a ton. But 2 rounds later ....

 

No but seriously, Mathis was going R4 and Martin was R4 / Late R3 in almost all the simulators last year. I was drafting them consistently in R3 and R4. I guess, get your guy when you want to get him, but that just seemed silly and proven right (at least on Mathis) of the simulators/online rankings being more accurate.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Warhead36]

Some of these OT prospects are huge too. Teams will be salivating over those 6’6’’, 6’7’’ frames. 
 

I wonder how many project to be LT vs RT. 

[mhd24]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

I just hope we draft someone Ive actually heard of in round 2. No more WHO? Picks like Mathis and Martin. 

Martin is going to be a stud for us.  By the end of this past season, he was arguably our 3rd best defender on defense.  He went where he was supposed to last draft 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

I just hope we draft someone Ive actually heard of in round 2. No more WHO? Picks like Mathis and Martin. 

 

Quan Martin wasn't obscure.  Got his share of hype here including from me.  We knew they were looking for slot corners-safety types.  So some of us were on to watching those guys.    Not really under the radar from draftnik types, Greg Cosell for example loved Martin.  Right now Martin is looking like might be the best pick for this team in that draft.

 

Mathis on the other hand was a surprise for many of us because we weren't thinking DT and it wasn't considered a stack draft for that spot. 

[Warhead36]

Just now, mhd24 said:

Martin is going to be a stud for us.  By the end of this past season, he was arguably our 3rd best defender on defense.  He went where he was supposed to last draft 

Yeah I liked what I saw from Martin as well, but still in general we whiff on the 2nd round a ton because were drafting no names.

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, Warhead36 said:

Yeah I liked what I saw from Martin as well, but still in general we whiff on the 2nd round a ton because were drafting no names.

 

I think its a mix of things.  Derrius Guice definitley wasn't a no name but he had a ton of personal baggage.  Ryan Anderson was well known but a bad athlete for that spot. 

[Koolblue13]

Martin was a reach, because Branch went right before us and we had him as our guy and weren't prepared enough to pivot. We probably could have had him with our 3rd. It was a deep DB draft. 

 

Mathis was drafted to replace back up level players like Settle and Iaonnidas, which Ron has said. That's ****ing stupid. You don't use a 2nd for an intentional back up. Not to even mention that Mathis was a day 3 guy, who looks like a bust.

[Warhead36]

2 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

Martin was a reach, because Branch went right before us and we had him as our guy and weren't prepared enough to pivot. We probably could have had him with our 3rd. It was a deep DB draft. 

 

Mathis was drafted to replace back up level players like Settle and Iaonnidas, which Ron has said. That's ****ing stupid. You don't use a 2nd for an intentional back up. Not to even mention that Mathis was a day 3 guy, who looks like a bust.

Ron's entire draft philosophy was some of the worst and most braindead I'd ever seen.

[Koolblue13]

19 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Ron's entire draft philosophy was some of the worst and most braindead I'd ever seen.

Agree, it's been awful. I truly think we'd have done better than RonMart.

[gooseneck]

If we do not get Irving how about Dylan Laube, later in the draft?

[Riggo#44]

55 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Ron's entire draft philosophy was some of the worst and most braindead I'd ever seen.

[ThatNFLChick]

Michael Penix Jr, QB

Jordan Morgan, T

Chris Braswell, Edge

Tommy Eichenberg, LB

Xavier Legette, WR

[Anselmheifer]

2 hours ago, ThatNFLChick said:

Michael Penix Jr, QB

Jordan Morgan, T

Chris Braswell, Edge

Tommy Eichenberg, LB

Xavier Legette, WR

I hope Legette turns an ankle, doesn’t play, and never works out before the draft. 
 

What I think is more likely however is that the Senior Bowl is part of what propels him into the 1st round. 
 

What does everyone here thing about Xavier Worthy, out of Texas? We could use a big play, elite speed guy to take the top off and relieve Terry of some pressure.