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2024 Comprehensive Draft Thread


zCommander

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7 hours ago, Going Commando said:

No he didn't.  He got severe ankle and shoulder injuries and tried playing through them to keep his team from falling apart.  Before he got hurt in that Monday Night game against the Bengals, they were 8-3 and in a battle for the one seed.

 

Lawrence is in no way a flop for Jacksonville.  They don't have an ounce of doubt about him being the guy for them, and when he's eligible for an extension, they're going to give him a mega contact.

Important to note that Kirk went down in that game too. Guy had 1100-8 in '22, and was on pace for 1100-6 this year, he goes down, Etienne's efficiency went sideways, and Lawrence was playing hurt. He hasn't been as good as expected when he was drafted in '21, but this season was pretty explicable. The biggest problem is they got a little too good, too fast considering their build, and Lawrence hasn't been quite as good as expected either, but injuries were a big issue for sure this year. 

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40 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

Spielman on McCarthy and Penix

https://www.the33rdteam.com/2024-nfl-draft-cfp-scouting-preview-michael-penix-jr-j-j-mccarthy-will-decide-championship/

 

 

Spielman also offered his thoughts on Daniels (this is from November so before the season was over and he won the Heisman)

https://www.the33rdteam.com/2024-nfl-draft-lsus-jayden-daniels-joins-top-3-qb-conversation/

 

 

Good stuff, thanks for posting!

 

Looks like Spielman thinks Penix might be Qb3... I think MPJ might even be QB2 when its all said and done with. (Eric Bieniemy voice).

 

A lot will hinge on his performance tonight, and I'll be glued watching every snap.

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Good read from The Athletic's Randy Mueller:https://theathletic.com/5183201/2024/01/08/michael-penix-jj-mccarthy-cfp-final/?access_token=6846337

 

 Comparisons

 

For McCarthy, I see the upside of a Jim Kelly, if he were to be inserted into the K-Gun system of yesteryear’s Buffalo Bills. For younger readers, he’s a less polished C.J. Stroud, with major upside.

 

As for Penix, I’m dating myself again, but he reminds me of another Huskies great: He is a left-handed Warren Moon with an uncanny ability to throw the deep ball and instincts and touch that can’t be coached.

 

 

Penix has excellent vision downfield in identifying targets and reading coverage. His decision-making is solid, and because of his patience, he can let plays develop before he pulls the trigger. His anticipation and trust in his receivers and the system allow him to make some throws that are impossible to defend. You rarely see this at the college level. The word that best describes Penix for me is polished.

 

 

Bottom line

 

Trying to predict how Penix and McCarthy will be picked without a complete evaluation is really difficult. Their talent tells me they are worthy of being top-10 picks, but that will be affected by the quality of the draft at other positions as well. With certainty though, a college game of this magnitude will carry more weight than almost any other in the eyes of coaches and scouts. Bright lights are a big part of any evaluation. Teams will decide who is the best fit for their systems. One player might be more polished, but the other might have more upside. The order of QB1 through QB5 in this class is about to get interesting in draft rooms across the NFL. Get your popcorn ready.

Edited by Chump Bailey
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21 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

Good read from The Athletic's Randy Mueller:https://theathletic.com/5183201/2024/01/08/michael-penix-jj-mccarthy-cfp-final/?access_token=6846337

 

 Comparisons

 

For McCarthy, I see the upside of a Jim Kelly, if he were to be inserted into the K-Gun system of yesteryear’s Buffalo Bills. For younger readers, he’s a less polished C.J. Stroud, with major upside.

 

As for Penix, I’m dating myself again, but he reminds me of another Huskies great: He is a left-handed Warren Moon with an uncanny ability to throw the deep ball and instincts and touch that can’t be coached.

 

 

Penix has excellent vision downfield in identifying targets and reading coverage. His decision-making is solid, and because of his patience, he can let plays develop before he pulls the trigger. His anticipation and trust in his receivers and the system allow him to make some throws that are impossible to defend. You rarely see this at the college level. The word that best describes Penix for me is polished.

 

 

Bottom line

 

Trying to predict how Penix and McCarthy will be picked without a complete evaluation is really difficult. Their talent tells me they are worthy of being top-10 picks, but that will be affected by the quality of the draft at other positions as well. With certainty though, a college game of this magnitude will carry more weight than almost any other in the eyes of coaches and scouts. Bright lights are a big part of any evaluation. Teams will decide who is the best fit for their systems. One player might be more polished, but the other might have more upside. The order of QB1 through QB5 in this class is about to get interesting in draft rooms across the NFL. Get your popcorn ready.

The moon-penix comp is a really good one.  Good eye

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1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

Important to note that Kirk went down in that game too. Guy had 1100-8 in '22, and was on pace for 1100-6 this year, he goes down, Etienne's efficiency went sideways, and Lawrence was playing hurt. He hasn't been as good as expected when he was drafted in '21, but this season was pretty explicable. The biggest problem is they got a little too good, too fast considering their build, and Lawrence hasn't been quite as good as expected either, but injuries were a big issue for sure this year. 

I've watched what I could of Trevor Lawrence on the Red Zone Channel.  But I saw him a lot as I watched Red Zone most of the year.  He just looks like a guy, certainly not even close to the player he was projected to be. I watched the Jags down 8 with the season on the line and had zero confidence in Trevor Lawrence. He sailed the 4th down pass 4 feet over the receiver with their season on the line, I'm not even sure they got a first down.  And I'm not sure it can all be blamed on his situation.  . 

 

Obviously the Jags have no choice but to sign him to a big contract. And it will kill them. 

Edited by Darrell Green Fan
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3 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

I've watched what I could of Trevor Lawrence on the Red Zone Channel.  But I saw him a lot as I watched Red Zone most of the year.  He just looks like a guy, certainly not even close to the player he was projected to be. I watched the Jags down 8 with the season on the line and had zero confidence in Trevor Lawrence. He sailed the 4th down pass 4 feet over the receiver with their season on the line, I'm not even sure they got a first down.  And I'm not sure it can all be blamed on his situation.  . 

 

Obviously the Jags have no choice but to sign him to a big contract. And it will kill them. 


He has two fairly major injuries he was playing through. He looked much better earlier in the season. 

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1 minute ago, Conn said:


He has two fairly major injuries he was playing through. He looked much better earlier in the season. 

He had a high ankle sprain and a concussion. That should not make him miss as many throws as he did and throw so many picks.  19 TDs and 12 INTs is unacceptable. 

 

 I've just never been a fan and the Jags are one of the teams I root for because they have been mostly bad. I really wanted him to be good but the tape does not lie.  He is an average starting QB and that's just not good enough in today's game. 

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7 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

I've watched what I could of Trevor Lawrence on the Red Zone Channel.  But I saw him a lot as I watched Red Zone most of the year.  He just looks like a guy, certainly not even close to the player he was projected to be. I watched the Jags down 8 with the season on the line and had zero confidence in Trevor Lawrence. He sailed the 4th down pass 4 feet over the receiver with their season on the line, I'm not even sure they got a first down.  And I'm not sure it can all be blamed on his situation.  . 

 

Obviously the Jags have no choice but to sign him to a big contract. And it will kill them. 

I haven’t been impressed with Lawrence, either, over the course of his career. 
 

Having said that, he gets a mulligan for year one. What a cluster **** that was. 
 

But he’s what I thought out of college. A good QB who has a long term future in the league as a starter and can do some incredible things but lacks consistency. 
 

His floor is solid. His ceiling is top 8ish. 
 

They can win with him, for sure. 

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11 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

He had a high ankle sprain and a concussion. That should not make him miss as many throws as he did and throw so many picks.  19 TDs and 12 INTs is unacceptable. 

 

 I've just never been a fan and the Jags are one of the teams I root for because they have been mostly bad. I really wanted him to be good but the tape does not lie.  He is an average starting QB and that's just not good enough in today's game. 


You went from “I watched what I could on Redzone” to “the tape does not lie” extremely quickly. Took you 8 minutes to go from casual part-time observer to decisive scout. Nice! 
 

(I don’t think he’s elite by the way. I just don’t think you are the person I’d listen to about it.)

Edited by Conn
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I’m settling in on my opinion of Caleb Williams from a football standpoint. 

 

Hes not generational. I don’t care if people think he’s a better prospect than Trevor Lawrence or not (because I don’t and didn’t think Lawrence was a generational guy even if he was the best in class).

 

But he’s really good at the things he does. 
 

The way he moves around in the pocket and makes guys miss is surreal. The flick of his wrist ball velocity and location is high end. He’s creative as a runner, though I don’t love him in that capacity… but he’s not a running QB. He’s a modern day pocket passer that can take off. 
 

I think he holds the ball too long and is going to get humbled in the NFL in that department. I also dislike how he passes up on easier on time/structured passes to try to make the big play. His height is also a concern.

 

But his arm talent and creativity are high end traits. Not accounting for his personality, where I’ll be relying on reports…

 

There isn’t another prospect close to him as it pertains to his creativity/arm talent combo. 
 

His personality will play into it long term, but short term he’s QB1.

 

QB2 is wide open for me, still. I’m having trouble buying into Maye and Daniels and Penix is ripe for moving up.
 

 

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3 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I’m settling in on my opinion of Caleb Williams from a football standpoint. 

 

Hes not generational. I don’t care if people think he’s a better prospect than Trevor Lawrence or not (because I don’t and didn’t think Lawrence was a generational guy even if he was the best in class).

 

But he’s really good at the things he does. 
 

The way he moves around in the pocket and makes guys miss is surreal. The flick of his wrist ball velocity and location is high end. He’s creative as a runner, though I don’t love him in that capacity… but he’s not a running QB. He’s a modern day pocket passer that can take off. 
 

I think he holds the ball too long and is going to get humbled in the NFL in that department. I also dislike how he passes up on easier on time/structured passes to try to make the big play. His height is also a concern.

 

But his arm talent and creativity are high end traits. Not accounting for his personality, where I’ll be relying on reports…

 

There isn’t another prospect close to him as it pertains to his creativity/arm talent combo. 
 

His personality will play into it long term, but short term he’s QB1.

 

QB2 is wide open for me, still. I’m having trouble buying into Maye and Daniels and Penix is ripe for moving up.
 

 


Maybe a stronger armed Tony Romo is a good comparison?  Romo had elite pocket presence who bought time.

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Just now, mhd24 said:


Maybe a stronger armed Tony Romo is a good comparison?  Romo had elite pocket presence who bought time.


I think he’s an overconfident Aaron Rodgers (I don’t mean personality, here, I mean in the way he plays. He’s arrogant in his play. Rodgers doesn’t pass on the easy completion as often or even close. Williams will backpedal and run around for 5 minutes).

 

Rodgers + Mahomes + Jameis (Jameis because he’s going to take a bunch of sacks that piss off a fanbase)

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33 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I’m settling in on my opinion of Caleb Williams from a football standpoint. 

 

Hes not generational. I don’t care if people think he’s a better prospect than Trevor Lawrence or not (because I don’t and didn’t think Lawrence was a generational guy even if he was the best in class).

 

But he’s really good at the things he does. 
 

The way he moves around in the pocket and makes guys miss is surreal. The flick of his wrist ball velocity and location is high end. He’s creative as a runner, though I don’t love him in that capacity… but he’s not a running QB. He’s a modern day pocket passer that can take off. 
 

I think he holds the ball too long and is going to get humbled in the NFL in that department. I also dislike how he passes up on easier on time/structured passes to try to make the big play. His height is also a concern.

 

But his arm talent and creativity are high end traits. Not accounting for his personality, where I’ll be relying on reports…

 

There isn’t another prospect close to him as it pertains to his creativity/arm talent combo. 
 

His personality will play into it long term, but short term he’s QB1.

 

QB2 is wide open for me, still. I’m having trouble buying into Maye and Daniels and Penix is ripe for moving up.
 

 

I actually agree with everything you say here. Funny how agreeing on a prospects traits and strengths can lead to a different conclusion. Caleb's pocket awareness is other worldly. I have never seen anyone close to it. He does hold the ball too long. But I also posted a vid a couple of pages back about how destructive he is when he plays in structure. He will have to do that in the NFL. He will have a learning curve in the NFL. It will take a little time. But his upside is perennial pro bowler and the type of QB who has your team a Super Bowl contender annually. 

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You are seeing what happens to Penix under pressure against an NFL defensive scheme. He hasnt faced much of it this year. But he is feeling it early so far. Also watch how he favors that right leg in his pocket movement. 

Edited by clskinsfan
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McCarthy looks great so far. Penix looks rattled. Early still but Washington can’t wait much longer to wake up.

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Edwards is killing them. Are we sure Corum is the best back there? :)

Yes. 
 

 

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