The Official 2023 ES Free Agency Thread... available until Free Agency 2024 begins

[Skinsinparadise]

2024 NFL free agency: Early top 25 ranking, buzz, predictions

 

1. Brian Burns, EDGE, Carolina Panthers

2023 salary: $16 million
Age entering 2024 season: 26

Why he could get paid: Burns has five sacks this season after posting 12.5 in 2022, and his pass rush win rate of 27.3% would rank third in the NFL if he qualified. He's just now entering his prime playing years, too. Burns has the high-end edge rushing traits, including the speed, explosive power and lower-body flexibility to consistently create pocket disruption. -- Bowen

What we're hearing: Burns would have a massive market in free agency, but the expectation around the league is the Panthers will franchise tag Burns at around $22 million. Things will then get interesting. Does Burns stay away from the team and threaten to miss games? Sides never closed the gap in 2023 offseason negotiations, and it feels like anything is possible at this point. -- Fowler

 

 

5. Danielle Hunter, EDGE, Minnesota Vikings

2023 salary: $17 million
Age entering 2024 season: 29

Why he could get paid: Hunter has been highly productive this season, currently tied for a league-best 11 sacks. Plus, he has 31 pressures and three forced fumbles. With his long frame and great short-area speed, Hunter has the upper-level pass-rushing traits that NFL teams want on the edge. -- Bowen

What we're hearing: No one has helped their free agency profile more than Hunter, who is tracking for nearly 19 sacks on the season. Hunter will be 29 to start the 2024 season, paving the way for a lucrative three- or four-year deal at well above $20 million per season. Jacksonville has long been a fan of Hunter's game, but Denver also could bolster its pass rush -- the Broncos are typically unafraid to spend in March. -- Fowler

 

 

6. Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

2023 salary: $3 million
Age entering 2024 season: 25

Why he could get paid: The 6-foot-4 target can produce at all three levels of the route tree, making him our top wide receiver right now for free agency. Higgins has 21 touchdowns over four seasons, along with two 1,000-yard seasons despite sharing targets in the Bengals offense with Ja'Marr Chase. He has the inside/outside alignment flexibility and vertical stretch traits to post high-end numbers as a volume target. -- Bowen

What we're hearing: Largely considered a No. 1-caliber receiver, Higgins will be hard for Cincinnati to keep. The franchise tag is $22.9 million, and the Bengals also need to pay Chase eventually. Higgins had significant trade interest at the deadline. He's exactly what a team like Carolina needs -- a bonafide vertical threat with size. Should he get to free agency, Higgins is probably the best wide receiver on the open market since Amari Cooper in 2020. -- Fowler

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7. L'Jarius Sneed, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

2023 salary: $2.7 million
Age entering 2024 season: 27

Why he could get paid: Sneed has the traits to match up on the perimeter or play a disruptive role as a slot defender, with one interception and four pass breakups in nine games this season. He is a scheme-versatile corner who can fit in both man and zone systems. Over a four-year career, Sneed has nine picks and 6.5 sacks. -- Bowen

What we're hearing: Sneed's do-it-all style will translate well to free agency, with the ability to play press coverage on the outside or be physical in the slot. Kansas City would like to keep Sneed and has had preliminary contract talks with him, but right now both sides appear focused on the current season. Talks could reignite after it ends, and if they go nowhere, Sneed is a franchise tag or free agency candidate. Enough contending teams were looking for a corner at the trade deadline -- including Buffalo, San Francisco, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh -- that the market will be viable for him. -- Fowler

 

 

9. Josh Allen, EDGE, Jacksonville Jaguars

2023 salary: $10.9 million
Age entering 2024 season: 27

Why he could get paid: Allen has nine sacks this season, along with 31 tackles, 23 pressures and two forced fumbles. He's a versatile, 6-foot-5 edge defender who can rush, defend the run or drop into coverage. And he fits as a base 3-4 outside linebacker, with the ability to rush in multiple sub-fronts due to his frame and closing speed. -- Bowen

What we're hearing: Allen finally has the sack production to match the enormous upside as a top-10 pick. The franchise tag could be on the table here. The Jaguars will likely make efforts to re-sign him, either before free agency or at the July deadline for franchise-tagged players (should they go that route). But if the Vikings lose Danielle Hunter, Allen could also make sense as a replacement in Brian Flores' 3-4 scheme. -- Fowler

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10. Robert Hunt, G, Miami Dolphins

2023 salary: $3 million
Age entering 2024 season: 28

Why he could get paid: At 6-foot-6 and 322 pounds, Hunt has the movement ability to mirror and win in pass pro, where he has registered a pass block win rate of 89.8% this season. He's a fit for multiple run schemes, too, as Hunt can reach and climb as a zone blocker or displace defenders on gap concepts. -- Bowen

What we're hearing: Hunt's name has been buzzing in league circles dating back to Week 3. He has upped his play in Mike McDaniel's system, emerging as one of the top guards in free agency. McDaniel's style of offense suits him, using his mobility to block downfield in the running game. To that point, the 49ers could use guard help. -- Fowler

 

 

14. Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2023 salary: $14.5 million
Age entering 2024 season: 31

Why he could get paid: Evans has the powerful frame to isolate as the boundary X receiver, creating matchup potential outside the numbers. The vertical ability is still there, too, and Evans has the route traits to uncover. With six touchdowns and 17.1 yards per reception this season, Evans should be viewed as a priority target in free agency. -- Bowen

What we're hearing: He's basically a lock for 1,000 yards every season, and his downfield ability has held up well over 10 NFL seasons. He'll be 31 in August but reminds us of a Calais Campbell-type player, only on offense -- his body type will help him age well for a contender. Some people in the league believe the Bucs will find a way to re-sign Evans, allowing the franchise staple to retire in Tampa Bay. -- Fowler

 

 

15. Jonah Williams, OT, Cincinnati Bengals

2023 salary: $12.6 million
Age entering 2024 season: 26

Why he could get paid: Williams, who owns a pass block win rate of 82.1% this season (58th out of 68 qualified tackles), doesn't have upper-tier power or length at the position. But he wins with technique, gaining depth to create blocking angles and pass-set lines. He can upgrade a front on the right side. -- Bowen

What we're hearing: Functional offensive tackles typically do well in free agency, and Williams, a 2019 first-round pick, has been solid after his move to right tackle. He might not reach the Mike McGlinchey threshold from this spring ($17.5 million annually) but will definitely post a double-digit number. The same goes for Patriots right tackle Mike Onwenu, who can play guard or tackle. -- Fowler

 

 

18. Jonah Jackson, G, Detroit Lions

2023 salary: $3 million
Age entering 2024 season: 27

Why he could get paid: Jackson is an interior mauler who can keep the pocket firm in pass pro, and he holds a pass rush win rate of 89.7% this season. He plays with a physical edge in the run game, too, with the ability to latch onto defenders and move them off the ball. -- Bowen

What we're hearing: Detroit had preliminary contract talks with Jackson in the preseason, but nothing materialized. The Lions already paid center Frank Ragnow and left tackle Taylor Decker, and they need to budget for tackle Penei Sewell. The guard market will be robust; consider that Ben Powers got nearly $13 million per year from Denver in March. Jackson has versatility as a guard or center, too. -- Fowler

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19. Calvin Ridley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

2023 salary: $11.1 million
Age entering 2024 season: 29

Why he could get paid: As a sudden-mover in the route tree, Ridley can create second-level separation and test defenses vertically. He gets out of his breaks with speed, too. His numbers haven't jumped this season in Jacksonville, but Ridley has produced two games with over 100 receiving yards, and more than 25% of his 35 catches have gone for at least 20 yards. -- Bowen

What we're hearing: Ridley might be the most explosive receiver in the class. Yes, he's pacing for less than 1,000 yards this season, but that won't dissuade teams from paying him. They have enough tape from his Atlanta days to know he can be a fringe top-10 receiver. Many of the usual suspects could be looking for a wideout, including the Giants, Colts and Panthers. -- Fowler

 

 

20. Devin White, LB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2023 salary: $11.7 million
Age entering 2024 season: 26

Why he could get paid: White has the second-level range and pursuit speed to track the ball, and he's a productive blitzer who can get home to the quarterback. He has 22.5 career sacks since going No. 5 overall back in 2019. White has the ceiling of an impact linebacker against today's NFL passing games, coming off three straight 120-plus-tackle seasons and pacing toward another (60). -- Bowen

What we're hearing: One of the more talented linebackers of the past five years had an uneven performance in 2022 but has been more consistent this season and showed toughness playing through a nagging foot injury. When healthy and flying around the field, he's a big-money player. Word around the league is that White wanted $20 million per year from the Bucs on a new deal. He likely won't get that, but he'll do well. Baltimore linebacker Patrick Queen is having a strong season and has upped his value, too, so there should be good linebackers available. -- Fowler

 

 

23. Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts

2023 salary: $3 million
Age entering 2024 season: 26

Why he could get paid: With his physical frame and high-end ball skills, Pittman can play on the boundary or create vertical matchups from slot alignments. He has the vision to produce on catch-and-run concepts, with 45.3% of his 677 receiving yards coming after the catch this season. Pittman has caught 66 passes through Week 10 and is set to top 120 targets for a third straight season. -- Bowen

What we're hearing: The Colts have paid many of their productive draft picks in the Chris Ballard era, so I'm expecting Indy to try to keep its top receiver. Pittman is pacing for more than 100 catches and 1,100-plus yards. The last Colts player to hit both of those marks in a single season was Pittman's wide receivers coach, Reggie Wayne, in 2012. -- Fowler

 

 

Others who could get paid

• Mike Onwenu, OT, New England Patriots

• Joshua Dobbs, QB, Minnesota Vikings

• Chidobe Awuzie, CB, Cincinnati Bengals

• Patrick Queen, LB, Baltimore Ravens

• Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Charger

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/38895900/2024-nfl-free-agent-ranking-top-25-buzz-predictions-burns-cousins-higgins

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[RandyHolt]

Seems like the appropriate thread

 

[method man]

6 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

He is 6-3 and has about 34.5" inch arms, which are legitimate NFL tackle arms. He sucked in 2021 and got benched before having a strong 2022. Need to dig into why that happened (did he just figure it out or was it schematic?) and how he can fit cleanly here. I think he is going to be cheaper than Jonah Williams who I am not interested in

[Conn]

Interesting. Have to think this would have led to cutting Rodriguez or Armah. No way we were gonna carry 4 RB’s and a FB. 

[DWinzit]

3 hours ago, method man said:

 

He is 6-3 and has about 34.5" inch arms, which are legitimate NFL tackle arms. He sucked in 2021 and got benched before having a strong 2022. Need to dig into why that happened (did he just figure it out or was it schematic?) and how he can fit cleanly here. I think he is going to be cheaper than Jonah Williams who I am not interested in

He will be cheaper than Williams. I always worry about OT's from NE, not the best track record...kind of like HC's from there, red flagged in my book

[OtisDriftwood25]

I’d be interested in Espenesa DE, Snead CB Winfield jr S, Cushenberry C,Hunt G, Queen Wlb and Brooks MLB. Prefer to stay young if possible. 

[Conn]

10 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

He will be cheaper than Williams. I always worry about OT's from NE, not the best track record...kind of like HC's from there, red flagged in my book

 

I think that used to be more true because Brady's masterful pre-snap work and quick diagnosis and release made the OL's jobs much easier. He was rarely touched, and it wasn't because their OL was always elite. 

 

How their current OL has performed blocking for the disaster that is Mac Jones is much more representative of their actual ability, imo. If a guy is putting out good tape and grading out well pass protecting for Mac Jones, I'm more liable to think that performance is sustainable. 

[FootballZombie]

1 hour ago, Conn said:

Interesting. Have to think this would have led to cutting Rodriguez or Armah. No way we were gonna carry 4 RB’s and a FB. 

 

Nothin' against him but I'm not even sure why Armah is still on the roster given out playstyle. Much better off bringing in a pure TE or something other than a FB we never use.

 

We don't run very much and you gotta figure a full TE can do Armah's job better.

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

Let’s grab Burns, Higgins, White…

 

Draft OL, TE, EDGE

[Warhead36]

There is no way Burns doesn't get tagged at the very least. He is an absolute stud and the Panthers will be looking for 1sts for him to recoup the likely #1 overall pick they'll have to give the Bears.

[method man]

13 hours ago, Conn said:

 

I think that used to be more true because Brady's masterful pre-snap work and quick diagnosis and release made the OL's jobs much easier. He was rarely touched, and it wasn't because their OL was always elite. 

 

How their current OL has performed blocking for the disaster that is Mac Jones is much more representative of their actual ability, imo. If a guy is putting out good tape and grading out well pass protecting for Mac Jones, I'm more liable to think that performance is sustainable. 

Actually to that end, one thing Mac is very good at is getting rid of the ball quickly unlike our guy who holds the ball. If I had my druthers, we should draft a tackle with the 1st round pick.

 

(Side note: I would trade a late Day 3 pick for Mac or do a pick swap. I would rather have him as the backup QB at $3M vs Brissett at $8M. The difference in salary is a starting a LB)

Edited November 16, 2023 by method man

[DWinzit]

14 hours ago, Conn said:

Interesting. Have to think this would have led to cutting Rodriguez or Armah. No way we were gonna carry 4 RB’s and a FB. 

Yeah they are not using Armah the way he needs to be. If Bates gets injured he should see more time as a blocking TE.

 

Rodriguez doesn't seem to be close to what the staff thought of him.

 

Today neither would be a big loss

 

[method man]

13 hours ago, OtisDriftwood25 said:

I’d be interested in Espenesa DE, Snead CB Winfield jr S, Cushenberry C,Hunt G, Queen Wlb and Brooks MLB. Prefer to stay young if possible. 

 

Zero interest in Queen. We already have him in Jamin Davis.

 

Didn't realize Jordyn Brooks was a FA. Good news for us is there are going to be a lot of quality green dot LBs in free agency. Depending on scheme, my top guy to get there is Luvu. He should have been a Pro Bowler last year and I would be surprised if he misses it this year. My theory is you need 5-6 blue chip players to seriously compete and he would be a guy who would check the box if he is allowed to rush the passer a fair amount.

[method man]

10 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

There is no way Burns doesn't get tagged at the very least. He is an absolute stud and the Panthers will be looking for 1sts for him to recoup the likely #1 overall pick they'll have to give the Bears.

 

Let's hope he hits FA and gets tagged. Means that Luvu is likely gone

[skinny21]

1 hour ago, method man said:

 

Zero interest in Queen. We already have him in Jamin Davis.

 

Didn't realize Jordyn Brooks was a FA. Good news for us is there are going to be a lot of quality green dot LBs in free agency. Depending on scheme, my top guy to get there is Luvu. He should have been a Pro Bowler last year and I would be surprised if he misses it this year. My theory is you need 5-6 blue chip players to seriously compete and he would be a guy who would check the box if he is allowed to rush the passer a fair amount.

A stud linebacker is in the top tier of my wishlist this offseason, along with OT and OG (though I think at least OT probably has to come from the draft and OG should be the easiest to address to some extent.

 

Second tier for me is TE, DE (x2) and corner - the latter two because we will be so thin at the positions (scary how little we’ll have at DE).

 

While I really hope to add a talented receiver and dynamic back, I don’t see them quite as pressing as the above positions. 

 

[Redskins 2021]

CB Snead from Kc could be interesting.

[Est.1974]

Highly unlikely FA move but Josh Jacob’s would be of strong interest to me.

[Warhead36]

41 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Highly unlikely FA move but Josh Jacob’s would be of strong interest to me.

Should never pay RBs in FA. You can draft one and get 4-5 good years of production out of them and then dump them just as they hit their drop off.

[method man]

6 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Should never pay RBs in FA. You can draft one and get 4-5 good years of production out of them and then dump them just as they hit their drop off.

I wouldn’t mind signing Zack Moss on the cheap. This draft class seems light on RBs

[Voice_of_Reason]

55 minutes ago, method man said:

I wouldn’t mind signing Zack Moss on the cheap. This draft class seems light on RBs

With the assumption Gibby isn’t back. We need another back.

 

but every RB should be cheap now.  
 

to me, before looking at a player, we need to know the offense we’re running.  I’m so done with trying to cram players into scheme.  Figure out the scheme you’re running and find a back to fit that scheme.  Whatever it is.  

[Est.1974]

8 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Should never pay RBs in FA. You can draft one and get 4-5 good years of production out of them and then dump them just as they hit their drop off.

Yeah and that’s the clear view of the new analytics guy we hired. And to be fair I agree which is why I said unlikely move. As others have noted, this draft class doesn’t appear strong though. 

[DWinzit]

On 11/15/2023 at 2:54 PM, method man said:

 

He is 6-3 and has about 34.5" inch arms, which are legitimate NFL tackle arms. He sucked in 2021 and got benched before having a strong 2022. Need to dig into why that happened (did he just figure it out or was it schematic?) and how he can fit cleanly here. I think he is going to be cheaper than Jonah Williams who I am not interested in

Wouldn't be the worse thing having a 6'3" RT for our 6'1" QB as long as he brings improved and consistent play over you know who...

[Est.1974]

If the plan is t9 roll with Howell then I’d like to build a new young core around him. Couple of OL then one each at RB,TE,WR, all via the draft. 

[MartinC]

13 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

With the assumption Gibby isn’t back. We need another back.

 

but every RB should be cheap now.  
 

to me, before looking at a player, we need to know the offense we’re running.  I’m so done with trying to cram players into scheme.  Figure out the scheme you’re running and find a back to fit that scheme.  Whatever it is.  

Im starting to wonder if Gibson will be back. He’s making plays in the passing game (which is where he should have been primarily used from the start). Running backs are not getting huge deals so he shouldn’t be that expensive to extend.

 

He might want a fresh start of course and I think the most likely outcome is we decide we can replace him with someone on a rookie deal - but there might be at least a chance he’s back.