The Official 2023 ES Free Agency Thread... available until Free Agency 2024 begins

[philibusters]

8 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

Sure we are laying it on thick. Some of us maybe veered off course years ago when he started grossly under performing to fans high expectations after being taken 2nd overall. I was kind of surprised he got rookie of the year to be honest, which further inflated fans expectations. I question the validity of win rate since as a full time player is not even top 20 in sacks. That reeks of him being inefficient. Rushing from the blind side he takes the lead in creating turnovers which is something the coaches stressed... and that didn't happen.  Fact is he was a key cog on what is on pace to be the worst defense in team history (points and yards).

 

https://deadspin.com/2023-nfl-sacks-leaders-1850875599

 

 

 

I would say win rate is probably a more predictive stat for the future than sacks.   Though in fairness, at no point in his career prior to this year did Young have a win rate close to 20%.  12% is average for a DE and prior to this year he was pretty close to that if I recall, maybe like 1% higher or something like that.  Then this year happened, but I think he has benefitted from going against weak competition.  For example, against the Giants he was against Justin Pugh who they had just signed two weeks earlier and had always been a guard.  I don't expect he would be able to maintain a 20% + win rate. 

 

That said sacks are not always that predictive.  I think close to half of D-Lineman sacks are schemed up where the D-Line creates a mismatch (a RB or TE on a D-Lineman) or the players get completely unblocked.   And sometimes you will get like a weird outliner season where a player who never had more than 8 sacks gets 14 but upon further review like 10 of them were schemed up.  I do think you see slightly more schemed up sacks in 3-4 defense than 4-3 defenses where in general the offense has a slightly better feel where people are coming from.

 

But yeah in the draft thread somebody mentioned a DE from ODU has 15 sacks in 8 games and my first thought was that is really impressive, but second thought was I'd like to see the data on those sacks.  Or they schemed up, are they clean up sacks, or they quick pass rush wins.

Edited November 3, 2023 by philibusters

[ntotoro]

11 hours ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

I didn’t see it, but the way the announcers described it, it sounded pretty bad.

 

It didn't seem that way at first... collided with a teammate. They only replayed it once and that was enough.

[kingdaddy]

1 hour ago, philibusters said:

In the total hypothetical realm, assuming the market for Chase Young is not there due to the injury and he could be signed here for say 4 years 60 million dollars this offseason, would you guys do it?

 

 

HELL to the NO!

[skinsfan66]

18 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

This is what Spotrac shows

 

 

 

Who'd we sign?  I must have missed that unless it was elevating from PS?

Could this explain part of it.?

Any signing bonus or other bonus of both's contract will come dew on this year's cap, I think? At least that's how it works for players that are not FA's and traded or cut, ALL Bonus money becomes dead money to the following year if the season was over and still had years and bonus on the contract. They have only bonus (dead) money for the rest of this year after the trade because it comes dew this year's cap, if they have any bonus spread out on contract? Base salary should go to Bears, 49ers. Bonus dead money to the Commanders. Need to check if they have any. Not sure if this applys to Who'd we sign?

[method man]

I was thinking about it last night. We can use one of the two 2nds and/or one of the 3rds to trade for good players still on their rookie deals. With the Raiders FO and coaching staff getting turned over, the new regime may not value guys on the current roster enough

 

@Skinsinparadise would probably do backflips if they can get Mayer (and Moehrig too) for one of the 2nd round picks.

 

One of the best hacks is, when a team’s regime turns over, you can oftentimes get their guys on rookie deals on the cheap as the new regime is not beholden to them. We saw that this past offseason with Okudah and Simmons getting traded for peanuts

[philibusters]

8 minutes ago, method man said:

I was thinking about it last night. We can use one of the two 2nds and/or one of the 3rds to trade for good players still on their rookie deals. With the Raiders FO and coaching staff getting turned over, the new regime may not value guys on the current roster enough

 

@Skinsinparadise would probably do backflips if they can get Mayer (and Moehrig too) for one of the 2nd round picks.

 

One of the best hacks is, when a team’s regime turns over, you can oftentimes get their guys on rookie deals on the cheap as the new regime is not beholden to them. We saw that this past offseason with Okudah and Simmons getting traded for peanuts

 

You could get Kaiir Elam for a compensatory third.  The Bills are pretty much out on him.  

[RandyHolt]

Shiny new Eugene chiming in on great TEs being bargains

 

Edited November 3, 2023 by RandyHolt

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, RandyHolt said:

Shiny new Eugene chiming in on great TEs being bargains

 

This is something a few of us have said for years. That there are really interesting guys you can target who go round 2-3-4 in good classes, and make infinitely more sense than wasting early day 3 picks on jags like Bates. Hell we found one in Logan Thomas after all. The last few years my favorite targets for cheap were Jonnu, Everett, Kahale (out of the league, don't know what happened with him), Engram, Taysom Hill, Njoku, Trey McBride, Tyler Conklin, Foster Moreau, Adam Trautman. Brevin Jordan. Lots of guys that are interesting, and/or cheap and unproven but with nice CV's. Trautman and Jordan havent done squat but were well thought of coming out for example. Conklin's nothing to nobody but a consistent producer, same with Taysom Hill. 

 

It's one of those positions, like Center, where you can get better in a hurry just with some creativity, and aggressiveness because of the devalued nature of the position compared to other positions. Same with RB, where round 2 typically housed plenty of top 5 talent capable guys you can grab while ignoring the overdrafted. Just from dynasty alone I know guys like Swift, Dobbins, Taylor and Akers were great values in '20, Hall and Kenneth Walker might not cost as much as Etienne or Gibbs or Bijan but they're just as good. 

Edited November 3, 2023 by The Consigliere

[Warhead36]

I love mid round TE picks. Just hate taking them in round 1.

[The Consigliere]

26 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I love mid round TE picks. Just hate taking them in round 1.

Don't need to, just need to be smart. Why take an in line TE with limited pass catching chops and athleticsm in round 4? Answer. You don't know what you're doing. 3 years after that wtf?!?! pick, due hasn't topped 45 catches combined across 3 seasons and our OL blows, so he aint helping a lot in terms of in line chops either. Maybe he becomes something, but he was a big nothing at the time, we tried to shine that ---- post draft, but of course were wrong. In fairness to the team, that draft didn't produce much at all at the position, but that was known going in which is why I wanted us to targe guys coming out of the '17 crop who wold be FA's instead. Basically the '21 class was 3 or 4 deep, and a few years later, it looks two deep. 

 

Gotta pay attention to class quality when making these decisions. Neither Bates, nor pretty much any of the other guys were move the needle TE's in that class. We should have addressed that position in FA, or in another class instead. 

[Warhead36]

20 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Don't need to, just need to be smart. Why take an in line TE with limited pass catching chops and athleticsm in round 4? Answer. You don't know what you're doing. 3 years after that wtf?!?! pick, due hasn't topped 45 catches combined across 3 seasons and our OL blows, so he aint helping a lot in terms of in line chops either. Maybe he becomes something, but he was a big nothing at the time, we tried to shine that ---- post draft, but of course were wrong. In fairness to the team, that draft didn't produce much at all at the position, but that was known going in which is why I wanted us to targe guys coming out of the '17 crop who wold be FA's instead. Basically the '21 class was 3 or 4 deep, and a few years later, it looks two deep. 

 

Gotta pay attention to class quality when making these decisions. Neither Bates, nor pretty much any of the other guys were move the needle TE's in that class. We should have addressed that position in FA, or in another class instead. 

Last year was the year to get a TE somewhere in round 2 or 3. Instead we took a Safety and Center who can never see the field.

[Redskins 2021]

5 hours ago, philibusters said:

In the total hypothetical realm, assuming the market for Chase Young is not there due to the injury and he could be signed here for say 4 years 60 million dollars this offseason, would you guys do it?

 

 

 I never want to see Young again. Guy was a total cancer to this team. I think we will be better without him. We will miss Sweat though.

Edited November 3, 2023 by Redskins 2021

[method man]

54 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Don't need to, just need to be smart. Why take an in line TE with limited pass catching chops and athleticsm in round 4? Answer. You don't know what you're doing. 3 years after that wtf?!?! pick, due hasn't topped 45 catches combined across 3 seasons and our OL blows, so he aint helping a lot in terms of in line chops either. Maybe he becomes something, but he was a big nothing at the time, we tried to shine that ---- post draft, but of course were wrong. In fairness to the team, that draft didn't produce much at all at the position, but that was known going in which is why I wanted us to targe guys coming out of the '17 crop who wold be FA's instead. Basically the '21 class was 3 or 4 deep, and a few years later, it looks two deep. 

 

Gotta pay attention to class quality when making these decisions. Neither Bates, nor pretty much any of the other guys were move the needle TE's in that class. We should have addressed that position in FA, or in another class instead. 

Another recent example of this was reaching for Mathis in a ****ty DT class

[Voice_of_Reason]

8 hours ago, MrJL said:

 

I may be totally wrong, but I think the standard for trades are any bonuses get accelerated to the trading team's cap but the team getting the player has to pay their regular salary, unless some sort of deal is worked out. So I think we have basically nine games of rookie contract signing bonus hitting us, but Chicago and San Fran are taking their base salary

I'll say it a slightly different way:

 

Sweat: His entire signing bonus already hit the cap as of the end of the 2022 season, as it's prorated over 4 years of the original contract, and he was on his 5th year option year. We took 8/17th of this salary, and get 9/17th of his annual salary back in relief, and the Bears pick that up.  (Editorial note, the NFL's 17 game schedule stinks because all the math is in 17ths.  Stupid.)

 

Young: We already took 1/4 of his singing bonus on this years cap.  We receive relief of 9/17th of his remaining annual salary, which the 49ers will pay.

 

Given both of them were in the last year of their deals, there was nothing which could escalate to our current cap on the trade.  If either had guaranteed money in future years, that would have accelerated to current year.  

 

Either team could have asked us to pay for some part of the annual salary, btu I haven't heard that reported, so I'm assuming they picked up the 9/17ths of the remaining annual salary. 

 

If we had traded Samuel, he has a voided year with $2.something million cap hit next year, and I think that would have accelerated to this year, depending on the type of bonus is was.  

[Est.1974]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Either team could have asked us to pay for some part of the annual salary, btu I haven't heard that reported, so I'm assuming they picked up the 9/17ths of the remaining annual salary. 

Yep that was my question, had i missed it reported that we’d picked up any remaining salary. Seems like no, which is good.

[clskinsfan]

5 hours ago, RandyHolt said:

Shiny new Eugene chiming in on great TEs being bargains

 

Kind of interesting that as soon as Shen got here we traded both of our starting DE's. He is an analytics gut. I wonder how much input he had in that decision. 

[method man]

Three top targets in FA for me:

 

- Danielle Hunter - One of the best pass rushers of this era and he is having his best season so far. No signs of slowing down at 29 and think he’ll be effective into early 30s. Minny can’t franchise him - he agreed to come back on a 1 year deal this year if Minny wouldn’t do that

 

- Mike Evans - The most consistent receiver of this era. 1000+ yards and a bunch of TDs every year no matter who the QB is. He is 30 and will be going into his age 31 season, which will place him behind Higgins and Pittman Jr in FA in pecking order. I’m willing to bet he has at least a couple more seasons in him. His size is a perfect complement to Terry and Jahan. 
 

- Azeez Al Shaiir - Tennessee stupidly gave him a 1 year deal. Al Shaiir would have gotten a long term deal from SF if they had not already paid Greenlaw and Warner. He is a smart green dot LB who is an above average player. A green dot LB is not a position you draft for if you need an instant contributor - as we have learned, there is a major learning curve. I don’t think my top choice on FA Lavonte David leaves the Bucs - he is going to retire there. Ignore the underachieving teases like Queen and White

 

Use the draft to fill our OL needs - the tackle depth is there where we should be able to find a Day 1 starter in the first. I think you can solve LG with Wylie, but if you are not comfortable with that, take Beebe or Barton in round 2. Don’t overpay mediocre or washed up talent like Jonah Williams and Tyron Smith in FA.

[philibusters]

49 minutes ago, method man said:

Three top targets in FA for me:

 

- Danielle Hunter - One of the best pass rushers of this era and he is having his best season so far. No signs of slowing down at 29 and think he’ll be effective into early 30s. Minny can’t franchise him - he agreed to come back on a 1 year deal this year if Minny wouldn’t do that

 

- Mike Evans - The most consistent receiver of this era. 1000+ yards and a bunch of TDs every year no matter who the QB is. He is 30 and will be going into his age 31 season, which will place him behind Higgins and Pittman Jr in FA in pecking order. I’m willing to bet he has at least a couple more seasons in him. His size is a perfect complement to Terry and Jahan. 
 

- Azeez Al Shaiir - Tennessee stupidly gave him a 1 year deal. Al Shaiir would have gotten a long term deal from SF if they had not already paid Greenlaw and Warner. He is a smart green dot LB who is an above average player. A green dot LB is not a position you draft for if you need an instant contributor - as we have learned, there is a major learning curve. I don’t think my top choice on FA Lavonte David leaves the Bucs - he is going to retire there. Ignore the underachieving teases like Queen and White

 

Use the draft to fill our OL needs - the tackle depth is there where we should be able to find a Day 1 starter in the first. I think you can solve LG with Wylie, but if you are not comfortable with that, take Beebe or Barton in round 2. Don’t overpay mediocre or washed up talent like Jonah Williams and Tyron Smith in FA.

 

I think all three of those guys would improve the team.    I kind of wish the draft happened before free agency so we knew who we got in the draft before making free agency decisions.  Hunter is a great player and is probably slightly better than either Montez or Chase.   He turned 29 on Sunday so he is not old.   Obviously you don't want to give him like a 5 year deal with lots of guaranteed money, but if you could get him on a three year contract where maybe 3/4ths of the money is guaranteed--we would once again have a top 5 D-Line on paper.  I know some people don't want to spend a lot on the D-Line considering what we have invested in Allen and Payne, but I am not against Hunter.  That said, I would the fourth starter to either be a cheap veteran like James Smith WIlliams or alternative be like a second round pick on a rookie contract.

 

Brad Speilberger projected Danielle Hunter at 3 years 67 million with 37 guaranteed (see link below) and I would be interested if he does end up in that range.  That would make me do more research.

 

I agree that Evans gives you a big physical WR, a skill set we don't really have in our WR corps.  As you say he is 30 going into his age 31 season, so I don't want to pay top dollar, but if you can get him on the right deal, I think he could be a huge asset.  I am thinking in 3 year 40 million range--50 million tops---and that may be completely unrealistic because he may go for 3 years 70 million like McLaurin.  Because WR's tend to decline in their 30's I wouldn't pay top dollar and that means I probably wouldn't sign him, but if for some reason an opportunity to get him a fairly reasonably price arose, I would go for it.

 

Brad Speilberger projected Evans at 3 years 63 million 42 guaranteed and that would be out of my price range for Evans, though I like him as a player and if that went down to about 50 million I would be interested.

 

Azeez Al Shaiir is another interesting option.   I think we need to add multiple LB'ers especially if we don't bring Cody Barton back or even if we do (I am skeptical of bring Barton back as a starter, but would be fine as bringing him back as the top backup).   I really wish we had just brought Cole Holcomb back to be honest.  In terms of Azeez Al Shaair maybe give him 3 years 15 million with about 9 million guaranteed is the ball park I would be looking at.   If we brought in him, brought back Barton and Hudson, and drafted a rookie in the fourth round, I feel like we could have a solid LB'er corp that was 5 strong.

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-projecting-veteran-extension-candidates-mike-evans-chris-jones-2023

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Kind of interesting that as soon as Shen got here we traded both of our starting DE's. He is an analytics gut. I wonder how much input he had in that decision. 

A recreation of Shen explaining roster construction to Ron.

 

[Silvernon]

Cole Holcomb is exactly who they need. It hurts. 

[skinsfan66]

5 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

This is something a few of us have said for years. That there are really interesting guys you can target who go round 2-3-4 in good classes, and make infinitely more sense than wasting early day 3 picks on jags like Bates. Hell we found one in Logan Thomas after all. The last few years my favorite targets for cheap were Jonnu, Everett, Kahale (out of the league, don't know what happened with him), Engram, Taysom Hill, Njoku, Trey McBride, Tyler Conklin, Foster Moreau, Adam Trautman. Brevin Jordan. Lots of guys that are interesting, and/or cheap and unproven but with nice CV's. Trautman and Jordan havent done squat but were well thought of coming out for example. Conklin's nothing to nobody but a consistent producer, same with Taysom Hill. 

 

It's one of those positions, like Center, where you can get better in a hurry just with some creativity, and aggressiveness because of the devalued nature of the position compared to other positions. Same with RB, where round 2 typically housed plenty of top 5 talent capable guys you can grab while ignoring the overdrafted. Just from dynasty alone I know guys like Swift, Dobbins, Taylor and Akers were great values in '20, Hall and Kenneth Walker might not cost as much as Etienne or Gibbs or Bijan but they're just as good. 

Disagree on logan Thomas, way over paid and a project that cannot stay healthy.  I like the TE's that can block and be a force in the pass game too.  Projects like those above turning a big WR, QB into TE is not the way I would go.  Give me a real complete TE and not a project that can do some things no tweeners or one dimensional TE's. Any of those TE's been to the Super Bowl above?   

[Est.1974]

Did we really need Eugene Shen to explain the value of those trades….what a sorry state of affairs.

[method man]

1 hour ago, philibusters said:

 

I think all three of those guys would improve the team.    I kind of wish the draft happened before free agency so we knew who we got in the draft before making free agency decisions.  Hunter is a great player and is probably slightly better than either Montez or Chase.   He turned 29 on Sunday so he is not old.   Obviously you don't want to give him like a 5 year deal with lots of guaranteed money, but if you could get him on a three year contract where maybe 3/4ths of the money is guaranteed--we would once again have a top 5 D-Line on paper.  I know some people don't want to spend a lot on the D-Line considering what we have invested in Allen and Payne, but I am not against Hunter.  That said, I would the fourth starter to either be a cheap veteran like James Smith WIlliams or alternative be like a second round pick on a rookie contract.

 

Brad Speilberger projected Danielle Hunter at 3 years 67 million with 37 guaranteed (see link below) and I would be interested if he does end up in that range.  That would make me do more research.

 

I agree that Evans gives you a big physical WR, a skill set we don't really have in our WR corps.  As you say he is 30 going into his age 31 season, so I don't want to pay top dollar, but if you can get him on the right deal, I think he could be a huge asset.  I am thinking in 3 year 40 million range--50 million tops---and that may be completely unrealistic because he may go for 3 years 70 million like McLaurin.  Because WR's tend to decline in their 30's I wouldn't pay top dollar and that means I probably wouldn't sign him, but if for some reason an opportunity to get him a fairly reasonably price arose, I would go for it.

 

Brad Speilberger projected Evans at 3 years 63 million 42 guaranteed and that would be out of my price range for Evans, though I like him as a player and if that went down to about 50 million I would be interested.

 

Azeez Al Shaiir is another interesting option.   I think we need to add multiple LB'ers especially if we don't bring Cody Barton back or even if we do (I am skeptical of bring Barton back as a starter, but would be fine as bringing him back as the top backup).   I really wish we had just brought Cole Holcomb back to be honest.  In terms of Azeez Al Shaair maybe give him 3 years 15 million with about 9 million guaranteed is the ball park I would be looking at.   If we brought in him, brought back Barton and Hudson, and drafted a rookie in the fourth round, I feel like we could have a solid LB'er corp that was 5 strong.

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-projecting-veteran-extension-candidates-mike-evans-chris-jones-2023

I think we’d need to win a bidding war to get Hunter. I wonder if a 3 year $90 mil deal is enough for him. I think he is way better than either Young or Sweat and he is an elite blue chip performer at his position. I agree if you get him you can fill the other end spot with a Toohill or a rookie and a rotation in general.

 

I really appreciate Evans and his consistency. Out of the other big WRs out in FA, I feel Pittman is a bit of an underachiever who drops the ball more often than you would like and Higgins is going to get top dollar. 
 

On Al Shaiir, I would go higher if needed and pay Holcomb type of money. Not a lot of greendot MIKEs in FA. Last offseason was deeper for that - the 2019 draft yielded a lot of great off ball LBs. I too would keep Barton around on similar money to what he is making now and then draft a couple rookies late Day 2 and Day 3 to potentially take over as a starter for Jamin if we choose not to extend him. 

 

 

[Kelvin Bryant]

41 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Did we really need Eugene Shen to explain the value of those trades….what a sorry state of affairs.

The implication is that nobody on the staff understood them. I have no trouble whatsoever believing this.

[philibusters]

1 hour ago, method man said:

I think we’d need to win a bidding war to get Hunter. I wonder if a 3 year $90 mil deal is enough for him. I think he is way better than either Young or Sweat and he is an elite blue chip performer at his position. I agree if you get him you can fill the other end spot with a Toohill or a rookie and a rotation in general.

 

I really appreciate Evans and his consistency. Out of the other big WRs out in FA, I feel Pittman is a bit of an underachiever who drops the ball more often than you would like and Higgins is going to get top dollar. 
 

On Al Shaiir, I would go higher if needed and pay Holcomb type of money. Not a lot of greendot MIKEs in FA. Last offseason was deeper for that - the 2019 draft yielded a lot of great off ball LBs. I too would keep Barton around on similar money to what he is making now and then draft a couple rookies late Day 2 and Day 3 to potentially take over as a starter for Jamin if we choose not to extend him. 

 

 

 

 I do think 3 years 90 million assuming a decent chunk was guaranteed would definitely land Hunter.  But if that is the cost, I would much rather try to sign a mid range like AJ Espensa.  3 years 67 million I am interested.   3 years 90 million I am not.

26 minutes ago, Kelvin Bryant said:

The implication is that nobody on the staff understood them. I have no trouble whatsoever believing this.

 

Yeah, I think fans read too much into statements.  I think Shen probably provided Ron some analysis to give him different ways to think about the trade, but Ron approximately knows the value of a third or second round pick.