Daron Payne or Jonathan Allen? You are the GM who do you keep?

[Spaceman Spiff]

I’m a bit worried that we just paid a guy who had a great contract year.  The pro sports landscape is littered with guys who ball out the season before their contract is up and then don’t produce at that level any more. 

 

That small worry aside, I’m glad we kept him and the D line has two stalwarts. 
 

 

[Going Commando]

7 hours ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

So, committing enormous amounts fo those resources to one position, like DL, is not a smart way to build a team. It just isn't.

 

This is not self-evident.  Repeating it over and over doesn't make it so.

 

The only fundamental rule of team building that is self evident is that you get good by getting good players, which involves keeping your good players when you draft them.  The only kind of team building that self-evidently isn't smart is overdrafting bad players, or overpaying bad free agents.  Neither of those are the case here with Jon Allen and Daron Payne.

 

I could maybe understand the argument of not overspending for one position group no matter what, if we had so much talent that the guy we're spending on was going to be a part time player.  But Daron plays 900 snaps a year for us.

[Warhead36]

1 minute ago, Going Commando said:

 

This is not self-evident.  Repeating it over and over doesn't make it so.

 

The only fundamental rule of team building that is self evident is that you get good by getting good players, which involves keeping your good players when you draft them.  The only kind of team building that self-evidently isn't smart is overdrafting bad players, or overpaying bad free agents.  Neither of those are the case here with Jon Allen and Daron Payne.

 

I could maybe understand the argument of not overspending for one position group no matter what, if we had so much talent that the guy we're spending on was going to be a part time player.  But Daron plays 900 snaps a year for us.

Exactly.

 

By the way, the Chiefs two highest paid players on defense were both DL last year.

 

People put too much emphasis on “all this money on one position”. Just get good players and pay them.

[Est.1974]

Chances are Payne has a longer tenure here than Allen. This is a very strong FO move.

[Tress Is The Way]

1 hour ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

I’m a bit worried that we just paid a guy who had a great contract year.  The pro sports landscape is littered with guys who ball out the season before their contract is up and then don’t produce at that level any more. 

 

That small worry aside, I’m glad we kept him and the D line has two stalwarts. 
 

 

The thing is, we are the ones usually paying for other teams players that ball out on a contract year (see Albert Haynesworth).. this is different since payne is a home grown talent in my opinion.

[Warhead36]

I don't think Payne is just some one year wonder type. I mean he probably won't put up 11 sacks again, but its not like he was a scrub for 3+ years before breaking out. He was always a good ascending player and he's just now hitting his prime. Remember he's still REALLY young, for a guy who has accrued 5 seasons in the NFL already he's only gonna be 26 at the start of this coming season. Allen's best years came after signing his extension too. Guys usually hit their peak in their mid 20s. We're getting Payne's best years and he still won't even be 30 when is contract expires. 

 

Also, its generally more worrisome when you pay for a guy on another team who had a breakout year. But when you keep your own guys, it tends to be favorable.

[philibusters]

So I was on the trade Payne for a draft pick (probably a 2024 pick) train.

I don't think this year's team is a contender with or without Payne, so I want to invest a bit in the future by getting a draft pick and rolling over some cap.  However, I do think this makes the team better in the next two years.   Its hard to get players as good as Payne in free agency or the draft.   I definitely understand the logic of keeping the ones you have.  So while its not the move I would have made, I don't have a problem with resigning him and am happy to have Payne back.

[HigSkin]

 

[Koolblue13]

12 hours ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Because there are limited resources to build;d a football team. From draft picks to roster spots to cap space, how you spend your resources determine how good your team will be. This should be self evident. 

 

So, committing enormous amounts fo those resources to one position, like DL, is not a smart way to build a team. It just isn't. And pretending the cap "doesn't matter" or it's okay because maybe the completely unproven 5th round QB will secure the position for a few years, doesn't really change that fact.

I guess we'll suck like the 49ers

[wit33]

3 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

I guess we'll suck like the 49ers

Must dominate the trenches, especially if you don’t have an elite QB. 
 

Dislike the label placed on him of not being a hard worker, crazy how that stuff sticks and gets repeated again and again. Not sure what his work ethic is outside of game days, but on game day since day 1 I witnessed a guy who never stops pursuing even to the sidelines, available, and played the most snaps of all the DL. 

[Koolblue13]

6 minutes ago, wit33 said:

Must dominate the trenches, especially if you don’t have an elite QB. 
 

Dislike the label placed on him of not being a hard worker, crazy how that stuff sticks and gets repeated again and again. Not sure what his work ethic is outside of game days, but on game day since day 1 I witnessed a guy who never stops pursuing even to the sidelines, available, and played the most snaps of all the DL. 

lolwut?

[wit33]

1 minute ago, Koolblue13 said:

lolwut?

My bad, I should’ve prefaced by saying it wasn’t necessarily only directed towards you. 
 

Happy to have him back. 

[Koolblue13]

2 minutes ago, wit33 said:

My bad, I should’ve prefaced by saying it wasn’t necessarily only directed towards you. 
 

Happy to have him back. 

Who placed a label of not a hard worker on him? You? 

 

He plays more than just about any one and went to camps last off season. 

 

Nobody says Payne is lazy. That's absurd.

[HigSkin]

 

[wit33]

27 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Who placed a label of not a hard worker on him? You? 

 

He plays more than just about any one and went to camps last off season. 

 

Nobody says Payne is lazy. That's absurd.

Really? What world am I living in lol 
 

Potential work ethic issues were cited by some in the media and many here have attached Payne and maybe some work ethic related issues. Thought this was common knowledge. 
 

Additionally, many have shared being worried he only produced at a high level in a contract season. 
 

I directly opposed this position from early stages and have been a huge Payne supporter. My intent was to connect on this issue, but per usual, that didn’t happen with you and I even when we are on the same side. 

[Conn]

Those quotes from Payne are great

[Bacon]

4 hours ago, wit33 said:

Really? What world am I living in lol 
 

Potential work ethic issues were cited by some in the media and many here have attached Payne and maybe some work ethic related issues. Thought this was common knowledge. 
 

Additionally, many have shared being worried he only produced at a high level in a contract season. 
 

I directly opposed this position from early stages and have been a huge Payne supporter. My intent was to connect on this issue, but per usual, that didn’t happen with you and I even when we are on the same side. 

 

For what it's worth, googling his work ethic brings up very little. I could only find this scouting report that speaks highly of his work ethic:

 

https://www.thehuddlereport.com/archive/2018profiles/Daron.Payne.htm

[Renegade7]

15 hours ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

I’m a bit worried that we just paid a guy who had a great contract year.  The pro sports landscape is littered with guys who ball out the season before their contract is up and then don’t produce at that level any more. 

 

That small worry aside, I’m glad we kept him and the D line has two stalwarts. 

 

Its not like he wasn't really good the year before, maybe not as good as this year, but that can easily just be a combination of his continued development and contract year at the same time versus a potential Dana Stubbifield or Haynesworth situation...just because we've been burned before doesn't mean this is also going to do the same...

[Renegade7]

10 pages in and no one even bothers to drop the "why not both?" gif?

 

 

 

[wit33]

3 hours ago, Bacon said:

 

For what it's worth, googling his work ethic brings up very little. I could only find this scouting report that speaks highly of his work ethic:

 

https://www.thehuddlereport.com/archive/2018profiles/Daron.Payne.htm

 

 

A few media members mentioned and it has been a topic of discussion here in the board. Also the idea he performed only in a contract year is an indirect way of questioning someone’s overall commitment and work ethic. This has been spewed countless times here and in the media. 
 

Just to be clear, I’ve been on the other side questioning the validity of such claims. When watching him he always seemed like a dude with good motor and worked hard. 

Edited March 14, 2023 by wit33

[method man]

16 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

 

A few media members mentioned and it has been a topic of discussion here in the board. Also the idea he performed only in a contract year is an indirect way of questioning someone’s overall commitment and work ethic. This has been spewed countless times here and in the media. 
 

Just to be clear, I’ve been on the other side questioning the validity of such claims. When watching him he always seemed like a dude with good motor and worked hard. 

Wasn’t his pressure rate in 22 similar to his other years? He got a little luckier this year w finishing sacks and I’m sure running cleaner stunts/other changes implemented by Z/Kerrigan helped

[philibusters]

3 hours ago, method man said:

Wasn’t his pressure rate in 22 similar to his other years? He got a little luckier this year w finishing sacks and I’m sure running cleaner stunts/other changes implemented by Z/Kerrigan helped

 

Daron Payne Pressures by year--sacks in parenthesis

 

2022: 49 (11.5)

2021: 47 (4.5) 

2020: 31 (3)

2019: 23 (2)

2018:  27 (5)

 

The sacks in 2022 are probably not sustainable.  I do think there is a luck factor involved in turning pressures into sacks, those some of it is skill, and some of its luck.   People say Payne is say better than Montez Sweat at finishing.  But before than year, Payne had 14.5 sacks on 128 pressures...Roughly a 11.3% conversion (the league average is usually between 15 to 20%).  This past year he was at 23.5% (which actually is a not huge statistical outlier compared to the rest of the NFL--a huge outlier would be 30%+, but it Payne's clear best year and might be hard for him to replicate).   

 

My problem with Payne is the fall off in run defense.  See his run defense PFF grades below:

2022:  47.8

2021:  53.8

2020:  74

2019.  75.1

2018:  65.6

 

There is a negative correlation between the amount of pressures he is getting in pass rushing and his run defense grades.  His best pass rushing year was his worst run defense year.  His second best pass rushing year (by pressures) was his second worse run defense year. 

[method man]

14 hours ago, philibusters said:

 

Daron Payne Pressures by year--sacks in parenthesis

 

2022: 49 (11.5)

2021: 47 (4.5) 

2020: 31 (3)

2019: 23 (2)

2018:  27 (5)

 

The sacks in 2022 are probably not sustainable.  I do think there is a luck factor involved in turning pressures into sacks, those some of it is skill, and some of its luck.   People say Payne is say better than Montez Sweat at finishing.  But before than year, Payne had 14.5 sacks on 128 pressures...Roughly a 11.3% conversion (the league average is usually between 15 to 20%).  This past year he was at 23.5% (which actually is a not huge statistical outlier compared to the rest of the NFL--a huge outlier would be 30%+, but it Payne's clear best year and might be hard for him to replicate).   

 

My problem with Payne is the fall off in run defense.  See his run defense PFF grades below:

2022:  47.8

2021:  53.8

2020:  74

2019.  75.1

2018:  65.6

 

There is a negative correlation between the amount of pressures he is getting in pass rushing and his run defense grades.  His best pass rushing year was his worst run defense year.  His second best pass rushing year (by pressures) was his second worse run defense year. 

 

Don't read into his PFF scores. Even the local PFF guy admitted the way they score Payne is flawed. He doesn't get points for holding double teams ( it is a neutral grade) as an example

[RandyHolt]

Which will it be?

 

ALL

 

I may close early today

[Riggo-toni]

The next thread will be between Sweat and Young....