Budget Fight (FY23 and Beyond...)

[Fergasun]

@Larry

Yes.  The GOP passed budget caps back to FY22 levels with increases of 1% per year.  I know theres a clip of Biden with the press corps saying "What did the GOP cut..."?  he is correct.  They don't say how the cut will be divided betwee defense and non-defense discretionary. 

 

FY22 levels are $1.46T.  FY23 was $1.65T... 

 

Oh and there's no way they get to those levels without cutting defense either.  Not sure where the MIC lobby is. I just Googled a CBO report that said in 2013 the effect on GDP was to surpress it from 3 percent to 1.5 percent.  GDP is $23T which means it's a potential hit to GDP of $345 Billion (assuming the same hit).  

 

Looks like the Dems in the Senate are pushing for Biden to invoke the 14th Amendment.  House Freedom Caucus is saying no more talk until the Senate passes a bill. Well, they actually asked the Senate to vote on their bill... but that ain't gonna happen. 

 

Here's the deal.  McCarthy probably doesn't know what type of deal his members will support.  They have to act like "we are doing everything we can..."  You have rogue Senators like Tuberville who could stop quick movement in the Senate.  I have seen some discussion of a "spending freeze" as an option.  

[Fergasun]

 

... and news today is that the talks have hit a "pause".  I think these parties are going to have to punt negotiations to the Senate.  The gap between the House GOP and Dems is too big.  

 

I am going to be looking if Manchin, Sinema and McConnell get together, or McConnell goes to Biden.  The problem is McCarthy doesn't win with any "deal"... especially when Freedom Caucus says "no deal".

[China]

Veterans could be among the first to feel the pain of a debt default

 

For Navy veteran Jesse Reynolds, it's personal.

 

Veterans funding is currently a key part of two high-stakes showdowns in Washington: budget talks and the possible default on America's debt. If the U.S. defaults, as soon as June 1, the Department of Veterans Affairs could be short of cash. And that means Jesse Reynolds could be broke on the first of the month.

 

"Money is pretty tight these days," he said by phone, driving from Utah to Arizona with his two dogs in the truck he calls home.

 

"This last year-and-a-half has just been trying to find myself again, trying to just keep myself alive, and get back into the world," he said.

 

Reynolds served 14 years in the Navy, until a head injury cut short his time with a SEAL team. He's been taking online classes and living in the pop-up camper on the back of his pickup. His only income is the monthly disability check from the VA.

 

Patrick Murray, legislative director for the VFW says it's uncharted territory for veterans.

 

"A lot of people have been asking, 'What does this mean for me? What does this mean for my benefits?' And our first answer is, 'We don't really know because we've never had this happened before,'" he said.

 

The U.S. government has never defaulted. But if Congress doesn't raise the debt ceiling, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that money could run out as soon as June 1.

 

If it does, that could mean late checks — and troops and veterans missing rent or mortgages or car payments. And it could hit the people who serve those veterans, said Murray.

 

"It could affect the pay of federal workers who process VA claims, or the VA doctors and nurses," he added.

 

Murray says he hopes the debt ceiling isn't being used as a bargaining chip in the other showdown, where Republicans are trying to cut the budget.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[China]

Debt Limit Talks Resume After G.O.P. Briefly Declares a ‘Pause’

 

Negotiations between top White House and Republican congressional officials over a deal to raise the debt limit resumed on Friday just hours after House G.O.P. leaders said it was time to “press pause,” complaining that President Biden’s team was being unreasonable and that no progress could be made.

 

The abrupt turnabout reflected the unwieldy state of negotiations over a bipartisan deal to avert a debt default that could occur as soon as June 1.

 

Speaker Kevin McCarthy said Friday evening on Fox Business that Republicans would return to the negotiating table and that bipartisan talks at the Capitol would continue into the night.

“We’ll be back in the room tonight,” Mr. McCarthy said. “But it’s very frustrating if they want to come into the room and think we’re going to spend more money next year than we did this year. That’s not right, and that’s not going to happen.”

 

Click on the link for the full article

[Simmsy]

For ****'s sake! Just lie and say that they want to raise social security age to 72 and and they want to cut medicare/medicade by 75%. Hell make it 85%, the higher the number the better. The people of America will refuse, Biden says its a no go, the GOP holds and then he can use the 14th. I know, being the first to do it "looks bad" (for some strange reason), but the magachuds will hate Biden no matter what he does.

 

The fact that Biden has basically come out and said "I haven't caved yet", is a terrible sign. If he loses on this, he loses his next Presidency. Liberals want a fighter, not another loser who gives in when it matters most.

[China]

JUST IN: White House Rips ‘Wishlist of Extreme MAGA Priorities’ After Latest Round of Debt Talks

 

The White House responded to the latest round of debt limit negotiations with a blistering statement ripping the GOP proposal as a “wishlist of extreme MAGA priorities.”

 

According to the White House, Biden received an update on the latest round of talks at 10 am local time, or 9 pm ET, after which White House Communications Director Ben LaBolt put out a lengthy statement torching the Republican position:

 

Quote

President Biden has made clear for weeks that Congress must act to prevent default. Earlier this week, the President met with the four Congressional leaders at the White House, where they agreed to move forward on a bipartisan budget framework. Following that meeting, the President assigned an experienced negotiating team and directed them to act in good faith to reach an agreement. But now, Republicans are taking the economy hostage and pushing us to the brink of default, which could cost millions of jobs and tip the country into recession after two years of steady job and wage growth.

 

Republicans are recycling a barely watered down version of their extreme budget proposal that would eliminate 100,000 jobs for teachers and support staff, cut 2,000 law enforcement positions and could put the health care coverage for millions of Americans at risk at the same time as Republicans would extend tax breaks for the wealthiest and corporations. The Republican position is especially galling given that the debt increased by 40% under President Trump and those same tax breaks cost taxpayers $2 trillion. And Republicans are even trying once again to reward tax cheats by gutting funding for the IRS.

 

Any serious budget negotiation must include discussion both of spending and of revenues, but Republicans have refused to discuss revenue. President Biden has lowered the deficit by $1.7 trillion in his first two years in office with this balanced approach and proposed a budget that would cut the deficit by an additional $3 trillion. Republicans, however, are focused on pulling the rug out from under hardworking Americans instead of considering the President’s proposal to cut wasteful spending and cut the deficit by eliminating subsidies for oil and gas companies and pharma and asking the wealthiest to pay their fair share.

 

There remains a path forward to arrive at a reasonable bipartisan agreement if Republicans come back to the table to negotiate in good faith. But President Biden will not accept a wishlist of extreme MAGA priorities that would punish the middle class and neediest Americans and set our economic progress back.

 

Click on te link for the full article

[Fergasun]

I saw the CEO letter this week and Chamber of Commerce letter.  Both of them made statements like "Congress and the President need to come to a deal."  Neither of them actually listed out what deal they would make. That type of letter is annoying.  It doesn't help give any side leverage.  Same with any article or opinion.  

 

I don't think the level of cuts the House GOP has really been publicized much.  It's a 12 percent cut without factoring inflation.  Inflation is 5% meaning this is about a 17% cut.  I think the Democrats are coming up with the "22% cut" talking point by assuming the GOP won't cut defense.  

 

I see the Biden-McCarthy talks as breaking down and McConnell (or Senators) haveto get involved.  I just don't know of there are other groups talking.  This will take the Senate... probably McConnell has someone working for him and Schumer.  

 

[Fergasun]

... 

Someone smarter than me made this point on Twitter.  Biden should have put repeal of the Trump tax cuts on the table in negotiations and some other stuff so that the Democrats have something to bargain with.  Right now all he said was "no negotiations" and then started negotiating.  All he has is the 14th Amendment, which he should use so that this doesn't keep happening to Dem Presidents.  

[ixcuincle]

 

[TheGreatBuzz]

"We are really tired of Biden calling us out on our bull**** and it is hurting us in the polls.  He needs to stop!"

 

~Probably 

[Fan since a Fetus]

Dusty Johnson sounds like a penis that hasn’t been used very often. No wonder he’s a bitter Republican.

[@DCGoldPants]

14 hours ago, Fergasun said:

... 

Someone smarter than me made this point on Twitter.  Biden should have put repeal of the Trump tax cuts on the table in negotiations and some other stuff so that the Democrats have something to bargain with.  Right now all he said was "no negotiations" and then started negotiating.  All he has is the 14th Amendment, which he should use so that this doesn't keep happening to Dem Presidents.  

 

Should shift the Trump tax cuts for the most wealthy to everyone else. Let the GOP fight against tax cuts for more people rather than their top donors in public. 

[Fergasun]

The hypocrisy and cognitive dissonance bother me.  The GOP only hesitate to lift the debt ceiling when the Dems have the Presidency. The Democrats should have made the point very strongly when this happened under Trump. 

 

And the media and news like to omit this in their reporting.  I mean, the truth may not persuade 80% of their supporters, but it could do something for the other 20%. 

[bearrock]

**** it.  I've come to the realization that as long as we let dumbass so-called conservatives use the debt ceiling as a negotiating ploy, the default will happen at some point down the road.  Just say clean debt ceiling or else and let the chips fall where they may.  We survived two world wars and  terror attacks on US soil. We'll find a way to survive this.  

Edited May 21, 2023 by bearrock

[Larry]

Yeah, I'm thinking there's some seriously asymmetrical messaging going on. 
 

For example, I'd LOVE if part of the back and forth were repeated statements that the biggest cause of the debt, is GOP tax cuts. And that the cycle of:

 

1). Passing a huge tax cut

2). Pretending not to notice when the deficit explodes. 
3). Until somebody else is in charge

4). And then acting like this debt just magically appeared out of nowhere. 
5). And demanding that somebody else must fix it. 
6). But. Somebody else must fix it, by giving up something that they already passed. The things we passed?  Off the table. 

[bearrock]

17 hours ago, Fergasun said:

... 

Someone smarter than me made this point on Twitter.  Biden should have put repeal of the Trump tax cuts on the table in negotiations and some other stuff so that the Democrats have something to bargain with.  Right now all he said was "no negotiations" and then started negotiating.  All he has is the 14th Amendment, which he should use so that this doesn't keep happening to Dem Presidents.  

 

It's really annoying beyond belief.  WH message should be as simple as "Clean debt ceiling increase or else.  We do not negotiate over the debt ceiling.  That's for budget and continuing resolution.  No one gets to hold full faith and credit of the United States hostage to advance their legislative agenda."

[ixcuincle]

 

[bearrock]

Schumer should move immediately to amend the Senate rules to bypass filibuster for a clean debt ceiling raise (we already have numerous filibuster exceptions for far less important matters) and have the Senate Dems pass a clean debt ceiling raise.  Better to force the pressure on the House GOP by having them affirmatively reject a clean debt ceiling bill already passed by the Senate.  If so-called moderate GOP house members won't jump on board to stave off economic catastrophe, the country deserves what they get for electing these people to control the House.

Edited May 21, 2023 by bearrock

[Larry]

5 hours ago, bearrock said:

Schumer should move immediately to amend the Senate rules to bypass filibuster for a clean debt ceiling raise (we already have numerous filibuster exceptions for far less important matters) and have the Senate Dems pass a clean debt ceiling raise.  Better to force the pressure on the House GOP by having them affirmatively reject a clean debt ceiling bill already passed by the Senate.  If so-called moderate GOP house members won't jump on board to stave off economic catastrophe, the country deserves what they get for electing these people to control the House.

 

It will never be voted on in the House.  

[bearrock]

9 minutes ago, Larry said:

 

It will never be voted on in the House.  

 

It's easier for the House Dems to put the discharge petition front and center if there's a passed Senate bill for a clean increase.

[The Evil Genius]

 

[Fergasun]

House Minority leader Jeffries spoke on the steps of the Hill and reiterated that House Dems would support Biden wrt a spending freeze.  He then pointed out that the GOP hasn't moved from their position and have now added in a bunch of extra demands.  Plus they are taking the economy hostage. 

 

He was very clear to say he didn't desire a spending freeze policy, but a spending freeze was a very reasonable position to move to (from no negotiation). 

[EmirOfShmo]

 

[88Comrade2000]

When we default next Thursday, will the payment on the salaries of Senators and Congressmen also stop?

 

 

[Switchgear]

8 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

When we default next Thursday, will the payment on the salaries of Senators and Congressmen also stop?

 

 

I don't know, but too many of them don't need the money. It isn't the deterrent that it should be.