Budget Fight (FY23 and Beyond...)

[Fergasun]

So with the new Congress, looks like we could have some budget fights going on.  Things had been quiet with at least Dems holding power in the Senate and the House.  I have read a lot online with right-wing not happy with the $1.7T omnibus, but honestly they were not clamoring to pass a budget at all or raising an alarm or concern with not funding the Federal government so... you can't have your cake and eat it.   

 

The GOP will try to capitalize on the debt ceiling in a few months... I think Biden will just ignore them and not bother negotiating because no one actually believes the 30% of the crazies would be able to wield that power over the rest of the legislators.  The problem four our pal Kevin McCarthy is that the 30% overall represent 60% of his caucus.  

 

I will add this that "fiscal conservatism" has gotten its pants kicked for decades and really has no credibility.  But, if one were looking at an avenue that is useful to cut, it's the medical monopolies.  Saying this as an observer because I still remember the GOP flipping their top at Obamacare (ie. fighting for Big Medicine).  I think Big Med is about one of the ripest interests to take on, but since citizens really have not much representation... I know how that would end up.

 

I will also say about a "4000 page bill no one read" it is likely they cut and paste and edit the top line numbers and fiscal years.  But saying, "3800 pages cut and paste with 300 new pages added" isn't as easy to foment the crowd with. 

 

 

[Larry]

Might as well call it the government shutdown thread. 
 

And I'm pretty sure the loony wing is pissed about the budget being passed, because it removes one of the many ways of negotiating by taking hostages opportunities. 
 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

Too bad they didn’t extend the child tax credits. Tbh I was surprised to read that the 2000 tax credit for children wasn’t refundable (which means you have to have a tax liability of at least that much) so many poor families don’t get the full child tax credit anyway. And they couldn’t get enough people to agree to give the poorest people a full refund?  That’s some Scrooge before Christmas Past bull****. 

Edited December 24, 2022 by CousinsCowgirl84

[Fergasun]

Placing this here.  Kevin McCarthy, who is still not Speaker of the House agreed to cap spending at FY22 levels to gain Speakership.  I mean, we will see how negotiations work, but there's no way Biden or the Senate will sign off with that.  

 

Also not sure how some of the other GOP reps feel about it. 

 

I am interested if they pass a "no debt ceiling" bill and an FY24 budget bill in time to negotiate with anyone.

[PleaseBlitz]

Why is this not in the Congress thread? 

Edited January 7, 2023 by PleaseBlitz

[LadySkinsFan]

The money people will never let it happen. 

[TheGreatBuzz]

58 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

Why is this not in the Congress thread? 

 

I think the budget fight will be big enough to warrant its own thread.  We've learned here big, catch-all threads don't work well.

[Jabbyrwock]

10 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

 

I think the budget fight will be big enough to warrant its own thread.  We've learned here big, catch-all threads don't work well.

 

Yea...but we could call it the Omnipost Thread in an excellent display of self-similarity.  I mean the symmetry would be beautiful.

[Fergasun]

1 hour ago, PleaseBlitz said:

Why is this not in the Congress thread? 

This thread was first.

[Fergasun]

This was the result of the FY14 budget fight which was the last time Congress caused a shutdown (Trump did so over border wall funding). 

 

"The House voted to approve the Senate's plan by 285 to 144.  Democrats supported the bill unanimously, 198–0 with two Democrats not voting.  The Republican vote was 87 to 144, with one not voting.  Republican leaders Boehner, Cantor, Whip Kevin McCarthy, and Conference Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers voted yes; Paul Ryan and Michele Bachmann voted no. President Obama signed the bill just after midnight on October 17, 2013."

[EmirOfShmo]

 

 

 

[Larry]

Some time ago, I expressed what I think are the actual facts about "defaulting".  

 

1)  No, Congress can't cause a default.  They can't simply declare that the debt doesn't exist.  

 

2)  What they can do, is to give the President orders to spend X dollars, and not give him X dollars, and forbid him borrowing it.  

 

3)  But.  If Congress holds the nation hostage, and refuses to back down?  The government still has money coming in.  The money comes in every month.  It's just not enough to cover all of the month's bills.  

 

4)  If I'm President, I publicly declare that Congress has given me contradictory spending orders, which cannot both be carried out.  

 

5)  And therefore, what they have done is to force me to go through the budget, and "line item veto" the parts of the federal budget that I don't have the money to pay for.  

 

I have to pick and choose which parts of the federal budget I'll pay for, and which ones I won't.  

 

And, I would have a plan worked out, in advance, to do that.  I'd have a budget prepared, in secret, that will bring government spending down to match predicted revenues.  

 

Obviously, servicing the national debt is a part that I constitutionally have to pay for.  

 

I think I would announce that since Social Security has enough money coming in, already earmarked for SS, to pay benefits, then existing SS payments continue, uninterrupted.  

 

I think I would announce that all federal contracts are halted, immediately.  Maybe an exception here and there.  

 

I have no clue how much else will have to be shut down, to balance the budget overnight.  I assume it would be a lot.  

 

6)  I'll confess, I would consider halting all federal spending in the district of every person who voted against funding the already existing federal budget.  Y'all think holding the fabric of society hostage makes good political theater?  OK.  Let me know when you decide that maybe that's not a good idea.  

 

 

[Cooked Crack]

 

Even establishment Republicans are okay with the hostage taking.

[Larry]

Of course. They fully believe that they can sell the notion that the hostage taker isn't to blame, it's the person who didn't give the hostage taker what he demanded. 
 

Didn't work last time. But you know Republicans. Just because something didn't work last time doesn't make them not do it again. 

[Fergasun]

Biden only has to negotiate on the budget. Him and Obama learned that the Debt Ceiling fractures the GOP.  

 

I didn't see Christie mention debt ceiling either. Budget wise, yes... I think there is room for negotiation on the FY24 budget in 7 or 8 months.

 

Did Christie get challenged or is his talking point "Biden HAS to negotiate..." .  I hate the DC media because they won't challenge dishonest talking points.

[bearrock]

Several dimensions to the 14th amendment approach.  Which undermines market confidence more, the shenanigans that US Congress goes through every time to raise the debt ceiling or the unilateral work around that a POTUS undertakes with the 14th?  That balance seems to tip towards the former with each passing day as GOP seems to fill up with more crazies than the previous members of Congress.

 

Second consideration is that eventually the 14th approach gets hashed out in court.  One result may be that SCOTUS holds that the executive must continue to service all existing US debt, but unfunded federal spending programs do not constitute existing valid US debt.  This results in a de facto spending cut of massive proportions (currently 400 bil per year, slated to be third largest chunk of the federal budget in 2030's).  And Biden is left with the unenviable task of deciding where and how to cut 400 billion from the federal budget.  It's more likely to become a political windfall for the GOP, giving them a massive spending cut to tout without responsibility for any of the aftermath and freed from the shackles of catastrophic debt default for now and the foreseeable future.

 

I think the best posture would be to permanently remove the debt ceiling and to remove the filibuster for that purpose if necessary (It's certainly no less important than putting a permanent member on SCOTUS).  In retrospect, it probably should've been explored in the last 2 years (assuming they could get Manchin or Sinema to bite).

[Larry]

24 minutes ago, bearrock said:

Which undermines market confidence more, the shenanigans that US Congress goes through every time to raise the debt ceiling or the unilateral work around that a POTUS undertakes with the 14th?  That balance seems to tip towards the former with each passing day as GOP seems to fill up with more crazies than the previous members of Congress.

Oh, the economy will be much more devastated by a shutdown/"default". 
 

But the insurrectionists want an economic disaster. They think they can blame Biden, and ride to more power. (To **** things up worse.)

[bearrock]

3 minutes ago, Larry said:

Oh, the economy will be much more devastated by a shutdown/"default". 
 

But the insurrectionists want an economic disaster. They think they can blame Biden, and ride to more power. (To **** things up worse.)

 

I agree that actual default would be the worst case scenario.  Was just comparing Congressional clown show that raises the debt ceiling at the last minute vs market reaction to POTUS declaring we're gonna go the 14th amendment route (which was one of reasons why 14th amendment approach had been disfavored) where no actual default occurs.

 

Budget/Continuing Resolution and government shutdown is a different clown show altogether.

[Larry]

Well, they can't cause a default. Why I used quotes. 
 

Yes, they will absolutely threaten a catastrophic shutdown. They've said so. They campaigned on it. 

[Simmsy]

All Biden has to do is say (start NOW) that he will not allow cuts to medicare or SS (you have to mention SS) and he will not allow the debt ceiling to be held hostage. Pound that into the minds of Americans starting now. If a debt ceiling fight happens, let it happen. The GOP donors will get their minions in line.

[Fergasun]

Since it was s hot topic and might die down, I watched/read transcript for both Chip Roy and Gym Jordan on CNN and Fox News shows. 

 

Chip Roy was more direct about wanting to cap FY24 spending levels at FY22 level. $1.4T or something vs. $1.7T.  They both seemed to also be willing to go after defense thinking "woke policies" are costing a fortune, plus "large number of general officers". Also, not funding Ukraine. 

 

Neither of them directly talked about the Debt Ceiling... but I know in the fall they were talking (when no one was paying too much attention).  Gym also talked about regular order in the House.

 

McCarthy will understand why the Rules Committee did what it needed to do under Pelosi.

[Larry]

Politico:  Yellen says U.S. will hit debt limit Thursday, warns of ‘irreparable harm’

 

Quote

 

The U.S. is expected to reach its borrowing limit next Thursday, forcing the government to start using “extraordinary measures” to prevent a default on its debt, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told congressional leaders Friday.

 

The move will accelerate the debate in Congress about how to pass a debt limit increase. The stakes are high because conservative House Republicans have made clear they want to attach government spending cuts to any such legislation now that the party is in the majority, against the wishes of the Biden administration.

 

 

[88Comrade2000]

So, the economy will crash sooner than we thought.

[Renegade7]

Coulda swore some folks were saying this wouldn't come to a head until like Summer or something...not next week... : /

[88Comrade2000]

Just now, Renegade7 said:

Coulda swore some folks were saying this wouldn't come to a head until like Summer or something...not next week... : /

Well, that article says we can manage until around June. 

 

I expect another stock market crash shortly.