Budget Fight (FY23 and Beyond...)

[China]

So my question is, how much do rich Republicans value their own money/investments?   I imagine they will keep this from getting to the point that we default if they value their own money.  And, as we have seen, they care more about themselves than the people they supposedly represent.

[Renegade7]

I just wanna see Turtle walk to the other side of the Capitol and start backhanding folks like Matt Gaetz and the Biden brag again about bipartisanship...

[Larry]

1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

Coulda swore some folks were saying this wouldn't come to a head until like Summer or something...not next week... : /

The article says that they can use "extraordinarily methods" or whatever the buzz phrase is, till summer. 
 

Thus allowing the Republicans to plan exactly when a threat to harm the nation will be the most threatening. 

[Fergasun]

All these articles, man I hate them. This is how I think it should be reported.  

 

"With her statement today, Janet Yellen kicked off the much anticipated debt ceiling showdown in Congress.  Shortly after, Joe Biden issued a demand for a no strings attach debt ceiling raise.  This is the Democratic position.  Everyone is waiting for the GOP via either Mitch McConnell, Kevin McCarthy or other on-message member to respond.  The GOP never failed to support an unconditional debt ceiling raise from Donald J Trump while they controlled the Senate.  

 

House Republicans are interested in limiting Federal Spending, but that is not done directly or controlled by the debt ceiling. They previously managed to force President Obama to accept a Presidential Commission (Simpson Bowles), which failed to make it to a vote in Congress.  Although GOP has mentioned the debt, Federal spending as issues; they as a group have not coalesced around a demand, with many House Republicans against a clean debt ceiling raise and Senate Republicans largely silent."

[Fergasun]

@tshile

I am going to pull a thought over from the 118th Congress thread. 

Quote

 

Republicans have been pretty open about being for shutting down the government over the debt ceiling going back to the Obama years. And for cuttin many government services/functions. 

I don’t know why those people are acting surprised or as if it’s something new.

 

Re: Debt Ceiling

They did not run on shutting down the government.  They ran on controlling spending.  Republicans were fine with raising the debt ceiling for Trump.  I remember what happened last time they did this dance.  The GOP forced Obama to cut spending across the board, and the next election they blasted him for cutting defense spending.  And then when the cuts were reversed, Trump touted that he was the best President for military spending. 

 

The Democrats should loudly say, "If you hate spending so much, control it under a GOP President..." and adamately not accept them trying to tie their Presidents.  Again, I see this as the media being afraid to point out GOP shenanigans. .

 

Re: GOP campaigning

I agree they have been for cutting government.  But they have acted like "we can cut aid for Ukraine, COVID mandates, and woke military policy and get there." 

Deep down everyone knows you won't get to the numbers they want that way.  Did they campaign on a credible plan like Bowles-Simpson?   Nope!  

 

 

When I was a child, our National Debt was $6T and everyone acted like "we shouldn't pass this on to our children and grandchildren!".  When In was a childless young adult, it went to $14T and everyone acted like "we shouldn't pass this on to our children and grandchildren."  Now I am a child-having adult and I say, "Don't screw my children over with the government spending that propped everyone else up for years." 

 

Re: What's really driving the debt? 

Health care costs is the main driver. No one wants to take on the health care industry, so they cut government spending on the backs of everything else and don't even talk about the real issue.

[Larry]

   6 hours ago,  The Evil Genius said: 

Wasn't it already decided that defaulting was unconstitutional?

 

Public Debt Clause (within the 14th amendment) says, "The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law… shall not be questioned.".

 

And Perry v US (1935) ruled that all public debt is covered.

 

So defaulting isn't really an option, right?

Expand  

(Trying to move this over from the "Congress" thread.)
 

Defaulting - the government simply deciding that the national debt doesn't exist any more and all outstanding treasuries are worthless - isn't an option. 
 

What is on the table is to create a situation in which the federal government has laws in place, telling it that:  

 

1). It has to spend $500B next month. 
2). It only has $400B coming in, next month. 
3). And it is illegal for it to borrow the difference. 
 

Such a situation would force the government (specifically, the President) to simply cancel 20% of the federal budget, next month. 
 

Does he turn loose the entire population of the federal prisons?  Turn the prisoners loose and tell the employees to go home (without pay) for the next month?  Send home the entire FBI?  Halt all existing government contracts?  Cancel all medical care for everybody who has government health care?  
 

All of those, combined, might not be enough. 

He has to cut government spending by 20%. 
 

Interest on the debt - the only part of spending which the constitution mandates he spend - is 7% of federal spending. 
 

Defense is 20%. 
Health care is 28%. 
Pensions are 24%. 
 

Thats 79% of federal spending. Eliminating the entire rest of the federal government would just about do it. 

It would be a disaster. 
 

But no. It would not be "defaulting on the debt". That phrase is no more accurate than calling an AR-15 an "assault weapon" is. 

[PleaseBlitz]

On 1/14/2023 at 5:00 PM, Larry said:

Public Debt Clause (within the 14th amendment) says, "The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law… shall not be questioned.".

 

And Perry v US (1935) ruled that all public debt is covered.

 

This is a quote of a quote from @The Evil Genius

 

The 14th Amendment was a response to the Civil War and the entire 14th Amendment is pretty clear that it applies to things related to the aftermath of the war, not the general power of Congress to tax and spend.

 

Quote

The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned. But neither the United States nor any state shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or any claim for the loss or emancipation of any slave; but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void.

 

Speaking more broadly, Congress has the "power of the purse" pursuant to Article I, sections 7 (taxing) 8 (borrowing money) and 9 (spending).  As highly respected (and not exactly conservative) constitutional law scholar Edwin Chemerinsky opined:  "Nothing in Section 4 of the 14th Amendment takes this power away from Congress or assigns it to the president.  Section 4 of the 14th Amendment says only that the debt of the United States shall not be questioned; it says nothing about who gets to determine the size of the debt or in any way shifts this power from the legislature to the executive. ... Moreover, the debt ceiling is set by statute. Unless this law is unconstitutional, which it obviously isn’t, the president cannot unilaterally repeal it and replace it with another law setting a higher debt ceiling."

[Jabbyrwock]

31 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

the entire 14th Amendment is pretty clear that it applies to things related to the aftermath of the war, not the general power of Congress to tax and spend.

 

The entire 2nd Ammendment is pretty clear it applies to "A well regulated militia"...so we start paying attention to the entire text of the ammendment considered as a whole somewhere between 2 and 14.

 

Law is funny.

[PleaseBlitz]

40 minutes ago, Jabbyrwock said:

 

The entire 2nd Ammendment is pretty clear it applies to "A well regulated militia"...so we start paying attention to the entire text of the ammendment considered as a whole somewhere between 2 and 14.

 

Law is funny.

Heller took a multi-decade effort by special interests solely dedicated to achieving that fraud. 
 

https://www.scribd.com/document/512719186/The-Gun-Rights-Movement-and-Arms-Under-the-Second-Amendment?secret_password=Sj8QVVDSqV2pmaW2j1A5

[Fergasun]

I would like opponents of a debt limit to use this talking point.  

 

"Republicans raised the debt ceiling under Trump unconditionally a number of times but principally twice without conditions;  February 2018 (Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018) and July  2019 (Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019).

 

If the GOP wants to enact spending cuts in the government, they cannot only do so when a Democrat is President -- they are behaving like psychopaths, liars or hypocrits". 

[China]

Democrats respond to GOP calls for debt ceiling negotiations: No

 

Late last week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sent an important letter to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. The cabinet secretary explained that the United States would hit the debt ceiling this Thursday, Jan. 19, and it was time for Congress to begin taking necessary steps to prevent default.

 

It’s worth emphasizing that hitting the debt ceiling this week does not mean that default is just a few days away. Rather, the Treasury Department will now begin a series of moves — described as taking “certain extraordinary measures“ — to prevent a crisis. But those temporary measures will be exhausted by early June. Before that deadline, lawmakers will have to agree to allow the government to pay its own bills.

 

“Failure to meet the government’s obligations would cause irreparable harm to the U.S. economy, the livelihoods of all Americans, and global financial stability,” Yellen said, accurately describing reality. She added that even threatening default has “caused real harms, including the only credit rating downgrade in the history of our nation in 2011.”

 

A day earlier, the new House speaker told reporters that, as far as he’s concerned, there’s no need to wait until the last minute: President Joe Biden, McCarthy said, should begin the process now of negotiating with GOP leaders and making them happy so as to avoid a default.

 

Democrats are not just rejecting Republicans’ demands, the party that controls the White House and the Senate are also explicitly rejecting the very idea of negotiations. The Washington Post reported:

 

Quote

Congress must raise the debt limit “without conditions,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Friday, soon after Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen announced that her agency will begin “extraordinary measures” next week to prevent the United States government from defaulting on its payment obligations. “We will not be doing any negotiation over the debt ceiling,” Jean-Pierre said.

 

In the same press briefing, Jean-Pierre added that the process “should be done without conditions. And that’s how we see this process moving forward.” She again reiterated, “There’s going to be no negotiation over it.”

 

Jean-Pierre was clearly articulating a position held by all Democratic leaders. Brian Deese, director of the National Economic Council, also said on Friday, “It’s a sacred obligation, the full faith and credit of the United States, and Congress is going to have to deal with the debt limit, and do so without conditions, without games, and without putting our economy at risk.”

 

Democratic Sen. Brian Schatz recently articulated the party’s position using even more direct language.

 

“In exchange for not crashing the United States economy, you get nothing,” Schatz said in an interview with The Daily Beast. “You don’t get a cookie. ... You’re just a person doing the bare minimum of not intentionally screwing over your constituents for insane reasons.”

[The Evil Genius]

 

[@DCGoldPants]

On 1/16/2023 at 3:35 PM, Fergasun said:

I would like opponents of a debt limit to use this talking point.  

 

"Republicans raised the debt ceiling under Trump unconditionally a number of times but principally twice without conditions;  February 2018 (Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018) and July  2019 (Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019).

 

If the GOP wants to enact spending cuts in the government, they cannot only do so when a Democrat is President -- they are behaving like psychopaths, liars or hypocrits". 

 

It's Jan 18th and the Dems, their PACs are sitting on their hands. Should be at least a week of ads saying the GOP is using YOUR social security and YOUR medicare as weapons to get more tax cuts for their wealthiest donors. Don't care if that's not exactly what's happening. You don't wait until a budget fight to get your message out. You do it now and hammer that message on networks that older folks watch during the day that isn't cable news. 

[Larry]

2 hours ago, @DCGoldPants said:

 

It's Jan 18th and the Dems, their PACs are sitting on their hands. Should be at least a week of ads saying the GOP is using YOUR social security and YOUR medicare as weapons to get more tax cuts for their wealthiest donors. Don't care if that's not exactly what's happening. You don't wait until a budget fight to get your message out. You do it now and hammer that message on networks that older folks watch during the day that isn't cable news. 

What I'd like to see, but won't happen?  
 

Joe Biden makes a national address. The theme is "Republicans vs Reality". In it, he lays out all of the talking points that we all know the GOP is about to use, and what the reality is. I'm thinking it includes things like:  

 

They will say this is being done by 10 Congressmen, from gerrymandered safe districts. This is untrue. It's being done by the entire Republican Party, acting in coordinated unison. If 5 Republicans vote to not hold the nation hostage, a clean increase passes. The reason it's not passing, is because there aren't 5 Republicans willing to not do this. 
 

They will say that they're doing this because they're concerned about the deficit. This is untrue. First, Social Security has not once, in it's entire history, contributed so much as a dime to the deficit. It's run a surplus.
 

Second. When Donald Trump and the GOP were in full control of Washington, they passed 1). The biggest tax cut on the rich that they could get past a filibuster. 2). The biggest spending increase they could get past a filibuster. X% of our current national debt comes from those two laws. And of the 222 Republicans currently holding the nation hostage 180 (or however many) of them voted for both bills. 
 

They will tell you that they want to "protect the future of Social Security" by converting it to block grants. The purpose of block grants, is to get rid of SS's current system where benefits are fixed by law. And replace it with a system where they can just allocate the same amount as last year, to a pool of retirees that's bigger than last year's, and then act surprised when everybody's benefits get cut, and pretend that giving the same amount, to more people, isn't a cut. 
 

... and keep going through all of the talking points that we all know are coming. 
 

When a Republican says "I'm going to secure Social Security", it's a lie. He's hoping you'll hear the slogan, and ignore everything else. 
 

Try to make it so that the audience is primed. Every time a Republican uses one of their slogans, they'll think "Liar". 

[@DCGoldPants]

12 minutes ago, Larry said:

Joe Biden makes a national address. The theme is "Republicans vs Reality". In it, he lays out all of the talking points that we all know the GOP is about to use, and what the reality is.

 

I'll take that. Except instead of a Biden address. A series of 30, 15, 10 second spots narrated by the voices of Tom Hanks and Morgan Freeman.... or voices that sound like those guys to video of older folks, especially older white folks looking uneasy and worried about everything. 

[China]

America Hit Its Debt Limit, Raising Economic Fears

 

The United States hit its debt limit on Thursday, prompting the Treasury Department to begin using a series of accounting maneuvers to ensure the federal government can keep paying its bills.

 

In a letter to Congress, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said the government would begin using what’s known as “extraordinary measures” to prevent the nation from breaching its statutory debt limit and asked lawmakers to raise or suspend the cap so that the government can continue meeting its financial obligations.

 

“The period of time that extraordinary measures may last is subject to considerable uncertainty, including the challenges of forecasting the payments and receipts of the U.S. Government months into the future,” Ms. Yellen said. “I respectfully urge Congress to act promptly to protect the full faith and credit of the United States.”

 

The milestone of hitting the country’s $31.4 trillion debt cap is the product of decades of tax cuts and increased government spending by both Republicans and Democrats. But at a moment of heightened partisanship and divided government, it is also a warning of the entrenched partisan battles that are set to dominate Washington in the months to come, and that could end in economic shock.

 

Newly empowered Republicans in the House have vowed that they will not raise the borrowing limit again unless President Biden agrees to steep cuts in federal spending. Mr. Biden has said he will not negotiate conditions for a debt-limit increase, arguing that lawmakers should lift the cap with no strings attached to cover spending that previous Congresses authorized.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[88Comrade2000]

21 hours ago, @DCGoldPants said:

 

It's Jan 18th and the Dems, their PACs are sitting on their hands. Should be at least a week of ads saying the GOP is using YOUR social security and YOUR medicare as weapons to get more tax cuts for their wealthiest donors. Don't care if that's not exactly what's happening. You don't wait until a budget fight to get your message out. You do it now and hammer that message on networks that older folks watch during the day that isn't cable news. 

Because they are *******. They need to hit the gop hard day after day until next election.  Not only that but they want to get rid of all taxes and just have a national sales tax of 30%.   Someone would have to do numbers but that seems like it would cost the average person more. Whatever they save from no taxes would be offset by the huge price increase from 30% tax; especially the lower incomes.

[China]

McCarthy tries to get out of his box on debt ceiling

 

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is pressing for Democrats to come to the bargaining table and begin negotiations to address the nation’s debt limit, as he faces pressures within his party to make good on significant fiscal reform.  

 

McCarthy called on the White House to start discussions this week. But as both sides gear up for the fight over the country’s borrowing limit, the GOP leader is getting the cold shoulder from Democrats, who have characterized ideas floated on the other side as nonstarters. 

 

“Republicans are creating a crisis that need not exist,” Rep. Brendan Boyle (Pa.), top Democrat on the House Budget Committee, said on Thursday, while decrying what he called “political games.” 

 

The impasse has heightened public concern in recent days, particularly as the Treasury Department has begun what it calls “extraordinary measures” to keep the U.S. government from defaulting on its debt. 

 

The standoff comes as House Republicans have ramped up calls to tie spending cuts to any bill raising or suspending the debt limit — legislation that caps how much outstanding national debt the government can hold to fulfill its financial duties. Democrats, by contrast, have instead insisted on a clean bill to address the debt ceiling. 

 

“It is essential for Congress to recognize that dealing with the debt ceiling is their constitutional responsibility,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said this week, calling for action to confront the debt limit “without conditions.” 

 

Click on the link for the full article

[Larry]

Repeating. If I'm President, my staff is preparing contingency plans for which parts of the federal government I will unilaterally shut down, if the Republican Party chooses to intentionally inflict that harm on the country. 
 

(I'd be wrestling with whether I want to make the cuts political. Maybe halt social security checks to every congressional district that voted Republican?  But I think I'd choose to be more mature than that.)

 

(I'd also be wrestling over whether to leak some of the contingencies I'm contemplating.)

[Bang]

Idea:
invite congressional republicans to an offsite location to negotiate a deal. Promise concessions. Throw a little pre-meeting ****tail party.

After 30 minutes, lock the doors and light the place on fire.

 

 

Of course i am being semi ridiculous, but honestly, my expectation is Democrats will do nothing, and will cow down once again and 'negotiate' with terrorists to the detriment of us all.

 

~Bang

[China]

15 hours ago, Bang said:

Idea:
invite congressional republicans to an offsite location to negotiate a deal. Promise concessions. Throw a little pre-meeting ****tail party.

After 30 minutes, lock the doors and light the place on fire.

 

 

Of course i am being semi ridiculous, but honestly, my expectation is Democrats will do nothing, and will cow down once again and 'negotiate' with terrorists to the detriment of us all.

 

~Bang

 

Sounds very Trumpan...

 

[purbeast]

I have a simple solution.

 

[@DCGoldPants]

20 hours ago, Bang said:

Idea:
invite congressional republicans to an offsite location to negotiate a deal. Promise concessions. Throw a little pre-meeting ****tail party.

 

At this point I expected you to go a little Godfather II with a bunch of them. They pass out, wake up next to dead female and male prostitutes. 

 

Then they'll be ready to deal

 

 

[Bang]

I don't think their base would care one bit if they got caught with a school bus full of naked kids.

 

Best to be sure, I say.

 

~Bang

[@DCGoldPants]

27 minutes ago, Bang said:

I don't think their base would care one bit if they got caught with a school bus full of naked kids.

 

Best to be sure, I say.

 

~Bang

 

Maybe if they were minorities? That would miss off the Alex Jones crowd.