Budget Fight (FY23 and Beyond...)

[tshile]

So this deal is about curtailing the IRS’s ability to collect owed taxes. 
 

And that’s the deal to let them borrow more money cause they can’t pass a budget that lasts more than 6 months without running out of money and needing to borrow more

 

what a joke 😂 

[Larry]

1 hour ago, The Evil Genius said:

Hobert thinking she's the base. 😆

She is. 

[Hersh]

On 5/27/2023 at 1:45 AM, Fergasun said:

Here is the deal. Let's say you call yourself a "conservstive."  If you are serious about the debt, you say: 

.

.

.

Just kidding, we know conservatives aren't serious about the debt. 

 

FIFY

[EmirOfShmo]

 

[Fergasun]

Boebert or anyone else against this deal is welcome to come up with something that will pass the House, Senate and be signed by Biden to avoid United States debt default. 

 

"Everyone" pointing to the Trillions already knows our debt trajectory is heading toward the $45T to 55T level.  It is obvious that you can't slam the brakes on when you hit the wall you don't like because the car will break.  I am looking at Rand Paul.  D

 

But, instead of coming up with a credible plan to actually be responsible with the national debt, they complain that "nothing got done". "We didn't make transformative change."  Hey buddy, when Trump-McConnell-Ryan had the trifecta in 2017 to 2019... did you guys push for transformative change?  

 

No sh**t, nothing got done.  Because you don't actually have a credable plan.  If the GOP had a credible plan on their platforn about "debt is too high we need to do X, Y, Z".. maybe people would believe them. 

 

[The Evil Genius]

They only need like 5 GOP votes (really 4 since its Kevin's deal) to pass it in the House, right? Assuming the 213 Ds hold the line and approve Biden's compromise (which they probably will)..  

Edited May 28, 2023 by The Evil Genius

[Fergasun]

It is likely that the 45 House Freedom Caucus members votes against from the right.  And some percentage of the Congressional Progressive Caucus vote against from the left.  There's 100 CPC members.  But... I sense the national narrative trending to "let's not default on our debt" and the Dems could embarrass the GOP by putting more votes up. Maybe this is more a 300 to 145 type of vote than the 220 to 215 I predicted.  

 

 

[@DCGoldPants]

McCarthy knows that if we default, the GOP will be blamed by most. Guys like Chip Roy know even if it stops social security checks in his district, he'll still get re-elected. Why that isn't said out loud on repeat is the Dems not messaging well as usual. 

[EmirOfShmo]

 

 

[Larry]

Thought is occurring to me. Which is rare, but dangerous. 
 

Been hearing that hey, the deal probably includes lots of Republican talking point promises . But that the promises are vaporware, because the next Congress can just ignore them. Next years budget is whatever gets passed. 
 

But, what if there's no budget passed next year?  If, as usual, September 1st rolls around and the House is still in back rooms with only Republicans allowed, deciding exactly what they will attempt to unanimously impose, and we're in "continuing resolution land", then do those promises kick in?  

[CousinsCowgirl84]

27 minutes ago, Larry said:

Thought is occurring to me. Which is rare, but dangerous. 
 

Been hearing that hey, the deal probably includes lots of Republican talking point promises . But that the promises are vaporware, because the next Congress can just ignore them. Next years budget is whatever gets passed. 
 

But, what if there's no budget passed next year?  If, as usual, September 1st rolls around and the House is still in back rooms with only Republicans allowed, deciding exactly what they will attempt to unanimously impose, and we're in "continuing resolution land", then do those promises kick in?  

Overall, I think the fact that includes plenty of Republican talking point promises is foreboding for the 2024 elections, especially with the end of the current economic cycle incoming.
 

I wouldn’t hang my hat on the next congress bring more favorable to democrats. 

[Renegade7]

Who ends up being nominee for GOP against Biden could have enough of an impact down ballot to give Dems back the House.

 

It's been nothing but a clown show since GOP got control, they've wasted a quarter of their time in power setting records for failed speaker votes and threatening to destroy the economy over the debt ceiling.

 

This feels targeted to the fringe of their base, not the moderates who helped give them back the House. They barely won with that strategy, they could easily barely lose in 2024 if they continue.

Edited May 29, 2023 by Renegade7

[Larry]

15 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

I wouldn’t hang my hat on the next congress bring more favorable to democrats. 

 

I didn't make any promises about the next congress.  

 

To start with, I was discussing the budget for 2024.  The one that starts Sept 1.  And this congress.  

 

As to the congress that will be deciding the budget for FY25?  Either:

 

1)  The Republicans will be in charge.  In which case they will not pass the loony promises they're making.  Because then they would own the results.  The Republicans don't want to own those promises.  They want to really loudly demand that somebody else do it.  (And then claim that somebody else should get the blame.)  What they'll actually pass will be tax cuts on the rich, exempting corporations from more laws, and Klansmen on the bench.  And when they lose power then they'll act like they have no clue where this deficit came from.  (But you'd better not try to fix it, by actually undoing the thing that caused it.)  

2)  The Dems will be in charge.  In which case we'll get a reasonable budget, aimed at improving the prosperity of the country.  There will be some trivial rollbacks of some tax cuts on the rich.  But not all the way back.  The deficit will decrease some, mostly because of the economic growth.  

3)  Or it will be split, and the GOP will be in Full Retard, just like now.  

[Fergasun]

@Larry

Thats not how it works.  Congress has to pass a Continuing Resolution. It happens October 1 (not Sept 1).  I will caveat with, there was talk of a self executing budget in this deal but I am not sure if that detail made it in.  Even though the House said they wanted 72 hours to read bills, I doubt many will read this.  

 

If in this deal, a self executing budget would necessarily be favorable to Republicans (otherwise they wouldn't agree to it).  Ie. it would cap spending more.  These agreements in caps in theory should really help smooth the FY24 and FY25 process.  We don't typically get government shutdowns in an election year. But it is possible the GOP work to change the deal using the FY24 budget process... leading to a shutdown. Traditionally, recently, it is the GOP who have complained about Congress not following "regular order" for the budget.  These caps should really give them a good target.  I do anticipate a fight between Senate and House bills... they always have to justify themselves.  I hope they fight in July-September rather than leading up to a shutdown.

[CousinsCowgirl84]

1 hour ago, Larry said:

 

I didn't make any promises about the next congress.  

 

To start with, I was discussing the budget for 2024.  The one that starts Sept 1.  And this congress.  

 

As to the congress that will be deciding the budget for FY25?  Either:

 

1)  The Republicans will be in charge.  In which case they will not pass the loony promises they're making.  Because then they would own the results.  The Republicans don't want to own those promises.  They want to really loudly demand that somebody else do it.  (And then claim that somebody else should get the blame.)  What they'll actually pass will be tax cuts on the rich, exempting corporations from more laws, and Klansmen on the bench.  And when they lose power then they'll act like they have no clue where this deficit came from.  (But you'd better not try to fix it, by actually undoing the thing that caused it.)  

2)  The Dems will be in charge.  In which case we'll get a reasonable budget, aimed at improving the prosperity of the country.  There will be some trivial rollbacks of some tax cuts on the rich.  But not all the way back.  The deficit will decrease some, mostly because of the economic growth.  

3)  Or it will be split, and the GOP will be in Full Retard, just like now.  

Yea, I guess my point is that the optics are what matters, especially with an upcoming election. What happens next year doesn’t matter as much as 2024, imo.

[88Comrade2000]

3 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

Who ends up being nominee for GOP against Biden could have enough of an impact down ballot to give Dems back the House.

 

It's been nothing but a clown show since GOP got control, they've wasted a quarter of their time in power setting records for failed speaker votes and threatening to destroy the economy over the debt ceiling.

 

This feels targeted to the fringe of their base, not the moderates who helped give them back the House. They barely won with that strategy, they could easily barely lose in 2024 if they continue.

Target those NY seats they lost in 22. I don’t see Santos winning reelection.

I can see them flip. Dems get House and Gop gets Senate.

[Fergasun]

... I just read the first 12 of 99 pages.  So if there is a Continuing Resolution in place on January 1, 2024 there are self executing cuts that will take defense and non-defense spending to FY23 levels minus 1%.  Similar language for FY25... (I didn't pay attention to where it snapped spending... but probably at FY23 levels).

[The Evil Genius]

 

[@DCGoldPants]

10 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said:

 

 

She's right and while I agree the narrative from who should be smarter headline or article writers. The Dems again are terrible at creating their message. Just another reason the DNC, the WH, the Senate and House Dems, need to replace their communications teams. I joke about how the party of "Hollywood Insiders" should be much better at this. Wag the Dog style. But it doesn't feel like a joke right now. When the writers strike is over, they should employ real Hollywood Insiders to write, storyboard, cast, and produce everything from a 30 second twitter video to broadcast TV ads.

 

 

[Fergasun]

Not sure I agree with Rubin.  McCarthy convinced his caucus to actually pass a budget, which was a helluva accomplishment.  He then actually came to the table and has delivered a deal on the debt ceiling, which is incredibly important for the country.  It seems likely he may do this without even a threat to his speakership (I only see left leaning folks speak about that).  Given the insane right flank, McCarthy was and is the far more interesting person to watch in these situations.  

 

Rules committee will be interesting.

 

 

[EmirOfShmo]

 

[Fergasun]

Also, the media narrative for those voting "no" should he that they are voting for sovereign default.  And they should be asked about their support for US default. This includes Presidential candidates, who should further be asked about how they would work across the aisle.  

[Cooked Crack]

3 hours ago, EmirOfShmo said:

You’d think there’d be a little bit of reflection on the implications of the GOP mythology that Joe Biden manages to keep beating them despite being a drooling dementia-riddled stooge but there doesn’t seem to be.

Joe Biden is Mr. Magooing them.

[Cooked Crack]

 

 

[Cooked Crack]