Election 2024 & Presidential Cage Match: Dark Brandon 46 vs Felonious Farty 45

[skinsmarydu]

From the texts I've received in the last few days, the average amount being donated to the Biden campaign is $13.31.  (This comes with the preface that "NO ONE IS DONATING!")

 

[LadySkinsFan]

It's not like they are actively campaigning yet. And people are spending money on the holidays, Thanksgiving and religious holidays at this time. 

 

There's plenty of good information ready to roll out. I expect to see a push after the New Year.

[@DCGoldPants]

10 minutes ago, LadySkinsFan said:

It's not like they are actively campaigning yet. And people are spending money on the holidays, Thanksgiving and religious holidays at this time. 

 

There's plenty of good information ready to roll out. I expect to see a push after the New Year.

 

I think there a lose/lose here. Biden needs a push, but he also doesn't want to take away from what the GOP primary mess is. After the new year I think he should be out there a lot, but as President at the opening or ground breaking for projects around the country. Especially in states like PA, Mich, AZ, NM, VA, etc. The ones where they will build their firelines if they want to win again. 

 

 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

 

 

 

[Busch1724]

2 hours ago, @DCGoldPants said:

 

I think there a lose/lose here. Biden needs a push, but he also doesn't want to take away from what the GOP primary mess is. After the new year I think he should be out there a lot, but as President at the opening or ground breaking for projects around the country. Especially in states like PA, Mich, AZ, NM, VA, etc. The ones where they will build their firelines if they want to win again. 

 

 

True and this is a marathon, not a sprint. What is discussed and debated today will be forgotten come summer time when this really heats up. 

[Jumbo]

Is it too much for a decently functioning  noggin to hold the one thought that polls aren't accurate predictors of outcomes this far out,  and also that a candidate might be bothered by hearing constant chatter about them when it's all negative? 

 

And what about having some healthy skepticism about how solid the info/source  the reporting is based on given how much it's good for the media's bottom line to keep the drum beat going? Especially from journalists who are on the political beat almost exclusively? 

 

Not only can both claims be valid, but the reporting's accuracy and proportionate relevance of the facts even when they are can be a "thing" too. 

 

The vast majority of these polls are one step above casting bones in construct and execution. The very best of them that even remotely approach usefulness are still iffy from any rigorously critical viewpoint.

 

And what usefulness they have will be restricted to time periods much closer to the actual events.

 

This isn't rocket surgery. None of my take suggests Biden supporters shouldn't take the possibility of failure very seriously and campaign trying to cover all the bases with their very best efforts. Because so much is at stake. But the hand waving flatulence of endless poll coverage is just dumb, imo.

 

(I can imagine how many rightside brains who think the WaPo is a worthless leftist rag will seize upon the article 🙃)

[hail2skins]

https://www.wsj.com/politics/election-2024-you-asked-for-it-america-8028bc04?st=d728fth2nosg67n&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

[The Evil Genius]

I'll say it again. This election feels like the 2014 CA Gov election when the incumbent Jerry Brown was polling poorly a year out. The not so bright polling all failed to recognize that Brown had spent absolutely nothing on reelection. He let Neal Kashkari and Tim Donnelly spend their war chests and absolutely demorialized them in the months leading to election day. 

 

Biden can't do that in totality here, but he also has no reason to do anything consequential until probably April or May at the earliest. 

[Jumbo]

I rarely clink on links in "political" posts that contain only the link.

 

And I'm at the point where I don't take wsj or the hill as very solid sources, though I read them fairly often. I used to assign them more credibility and less partisanship though they've always been partisan.

 

Much of media is slanted of course,  just by their choice to chase a given audience cuz it's money that matters. Huffpo is a great example on the left. MSNBC the same with cable news.

 

Doesn't mean all of these operations don't have some great reporters who sometimes do great reporting. It's all about separating the white noise from the accurate relevant substance. But managing my time is a factor too.

 

 

I mostly prefer direct feeds from ap, Reuters, etc. or viewing basic nbc, cbs, abc, npr, CBC, bbc news and of course still applying critical thinking and cross checking.

 

I also fell down yesterday.😁

[Captain Wiggles]

That WSJ article is Bogus. Bill Clinton had the perfect campaign theme songs. Celebration by Kool and the Gang and Don't Stop by Fleetwood Mac. 🤭

[LadySkinsFan]

What I watch on MSNBC, and mostly for the continuing legal education: Deadline White House, Rachel, and Lawrence as long as the topics interest me. If not, I change the channel. 

 

I don't watch CNN, Faux, or any of the other MAGA channels.

[88Comrade2000]

4 hours ago, LadySkinsFan said:

It's not like they are actively campaigning yet. And people are spending money on the holidays, Thanksgiving and religious holidays at this time. 

 

There's plenty of good information ready to roll out. I expect to see a push after the New Year.

The gop primaries start the middle of January.  Biden needs to start campaigning and flood with ads. Even though there really isn’t a Dem race; Biden needs to counteract all the attention on the gop race for 2nd place and then take on Trump now.

 

 

Election was today , Trump would win.

 

Biden needs to change the narrative about him and talk about the stakes, if Trump gets in.

 

If he waits anymore, the negative views about him will harden and he’ll lose.  He’s got to counteract Trump and the gop and prevent Dem voters going 3rd party.

 

This election will be close, electoral college wise.  It won’t take that many votes going to third parties to tip key states to Donald.

 

 

Joe has to go out there , while balancing his presidential duties.

 

He can’t assume just because Trump is opponent, Trump going to prison, and abortion ; he will win.

[Spaceman Spiff]

42 minutes ago, hail2skins said:

https://www.wsj.com/politics/election-2024-you-asked-for-it-america-8028bc04?st=d728fth2nosg67n&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

If I was low on toilet paper, I'd print this off and wipe my ass with it.  What the **** is this ****.

4 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

 

 

 

Election was today , Trump would win.

 

 

Oh look, another post where you're predicting a Trump win.  Do you get tired of playing that same song over and over?

[Califan007 The Constipated]

9 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Election was today , Trump would win.

 

 

No, he wouldn't.

 

If it were held tomorrow, he wouldn't win.

 

If it's held next week, he wouldn't win. Or next month. Or next year. And as luck would have it, the election is being held next year. And he won't win.

 

If Biden's poll numbers dictated anything in an election, there would have been a "red tsunami" in 2022...history was chock full of examples of the party in the White House losing huge in the midterms to the opposing party when the president's poll numbers were as bad as Biden's were at the time. Instead we got a couple of red drops from an eyedropper. It's like everyone just decided to ignore 1) how galvanizing overturning Roe became, 2) the immense hatred and fear of Trump in office again remains, 3) how much Democrats have been overperforming in all of the elections since 2020, and 4) how big a role young voters will end up playing in things.

 

Not to mention, the speculation-bordering-on-admitted-fact that Dems were secretly doing things to get MAGA candidates to win their primaries for the midterms due to believing they'd be much easier to defeat in the actual elections may have delivered for the Dems. I remember reading an article by some guy talking about how he was hearing that this was part of the Dems' strategy and he sounded the alarms to Dems to not do this because it could easily lead to strengthening the MAGA faction of the Republican party due to flooding Congress with MAGA representatives and senators. Didn't quite turn out that way, though, did it lol...

 

MAGA political candidates have been failing all over the country. Trump's endorsement hasn't come anywhere close to delivering victories Repubs were hoping for. There has--and continues to be--tons of infighting, backstabbing, conservative civil war battles, unsavory controversies, massive failure after massive failure for House republicans, and that idiot Tuberville alone gave Dems campaign ammo to use over the next 11 months. And Trump is being weighed down with felony counts and indictments. The only place Republicans as a whole are "winning" is in polls.

 

But a poll isn't a vote. When people know their opinion doesn't mean ****, they respond differently than when they do know their actions mean a lot. Polls are opinions, voting is action. The motivations behind the answer you give to a poll are wildly different from the motivations that cause you to vote. It wouldn't surprise me if a lot of those who say they'd vote for Trump over Biden end up not voting for either...and those who say they disapprove of Biden and would prefer someone else, still end up voting for Biden regardless.

[China]

Donald Trump promises 'largest deportation operation in American history' if elected president

 

Former US president and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump says he plans to complete the "largest deportation in American history" if re-elected in 2024.

 

Speaking at a rally in Reno, Nevada, Mr Trump also called US President Joe Biden a "low-IQ individual" and the "worst, most incompetent and most corrupt president" in the history of the United States.

 

One day earlier, the former president said that undocumented immigrants were "poisoning the blood of our country",

 

Click on the link for the full article

[Califan007 The Constipated]

58 minutes ago, China said:

Donald Trump promises 'largest deportation operation in American history' if elected president

 

Former US president and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump says he plans to complete the "largest deportation in American history" if re-elected in 2024.

 

Speaking at a rally in Reno, Nevada, Mr Trump also called US President Joe Biden a "low-IQ individual" and the "worst, most incompetent and most corrupt president" in the history of the United States.

 

One day earlier, the former president said that undocumented immigrants were "poisoning the blood of our country",

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

 

And then there's stuff like this lol...Trump's public statements keep getting more and more outrageous and authoritarian, and that is absolutely a motivating factor in getting Dems and Independents out to vote against him. I half-expect Trump to start saying he'll execute Mike Pence on the White House lawn for his role in rigging the 2020 election if he's elected again, and that those who vote for him must agree to offer up their teenage daughters to him whenever he desires or else they're "RINOs"...and for 98% of the MAGA base to cheer him on and his poll numbers to go up.

[Larry]

1 hour ago, China said:

Donald Trump promises 'largest deportation operation in American history' if elected president

 

Former US president and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump says he plans to complete the "largest deportation in American history" if re-elected in 2024.

 

He promised that last time, too. 

[Captain Wiggles]

9 minutes ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 

I half-expect Trump to start saying he'll execute Mike Pence on the White House lawn for his role in rigging the 2020 election if he's elected again

 

Me on election day. 🤭

 

[tshile]

3 hours ago, The Evil Genius said:

Biden can't do that in totality here, but he also has no reason to do anything consequential until probably April or May at the earliest

He doesn’t need to do anything except talk about what his admin is doing and plans to do, until he knows who he’s up against 

 

unfortunately our population doesn’t vote for someone’s ideas, they vote against others’ ideas, so there’s not a lot to do until you know who the “other” is

 

Why spend money aimlessly attacking a bunch of people when you can wait and attack just one with all of it?

[hail2skins]

1 hour ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 

 

And then there's stuff like this lol...Trump's public statements keep getting more and more outrageous and authoritarian, and that is absolutely a motivating factor in getting Dems and Independents out to vote against him. I half-expect Trump to start saying he'll execute Mike Pence on the White House lawn for his role in rigging the 2020 election if he's elected again, and that those who vote for him must agree to offer up their teenage daughters to him whenever he desires or else they're "RINOs"...and for 98% of the MAGA base to cheer him on and his poll numbers to go up.

You would think Cali....

 

Reminds me of this thread from Tom Nichols last week responding to an article from a National Review writer. Basically the writer's opinion is along the same lines as those who minimize Jan 6th by saying "but the system held." Unfortunately, the system is only as good as the people within:

 

I saw a clip with Nichols on CNN yesterday and when Acosta asked him about how Trump can be up so far ahead in the primary when he says stuff like Cali quoted, Nichols said that it reflects a worrisome trend regarding the country's civic virtue.

 

And Nichols agreed with what Tshile says above about how it's likely too early for Biden to go full fledged attack mode, because he says voters will tune it out within six months. 

 

 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

6 minutes ago, hail2skins said:

 

Nichols said that it reflects a worrisome trend regarding the country's civic virtue.

 

 

What did he mean by "the country's civic virtue"?

[@DCGoldPants]

8 minutes ago, hail2skins said:

too early for Biden to go full fledged attack mode, because he says voters will tune it out within six months. 

Biden's strategy should be after the new year, hit the road as President to push things like more affordable medications (especially for Seniors) and student debt forgiveness. Go to as many new bridge projects, and roll up his sleeves to do some habitat for humanity work. 

 

Don't acknowledge Trump yet. You can blast the GOP for being one of the least productive Houses ever. 

 

Then as soon as Trump wins enough primaries and Desantis/Haley bow out. Start spending more about how terrible Trump is and less about what makes him better. Don't be naive. More people are voting against Trump than for Biden. Use that. Have the PACs go heavy on thst stuff. "Trump will treat you like one of his wives, cheat on you, leave you, and then bury you where he doesn't even take care of the grave". Don't be a Trump ex-wife. 

 

[hail2skins]

23 minutes ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 

What did he mean by "the country's civic virtue"?

You'd have to go to Nichols' Twitter page and watch the segment, which is about 12 minutes long.

 

I think Nichols was mainly referring to the GOP voting base and in disbelief that someone like Trump is apparently (again, if you believe the polls) so far ahead in the primary. One thing I remember Nichols mentioning is that Trump seems to have pulled off this thing where he is extolled as "someone who speaks his mind" but then when he says something outrageous, those same admirers say "he was only kidding." Can't have it both ways, of course, but that just speaks to how fickle people are.

 

We disagree on whether Trump will win next November. Unfortunately, if he does, I wonder how many people, even independent voters, will use the results to say "Trump was right, the 2020 election was stolen," further undermining confidence in our elections. Bad times.

[hail2skins]

Nichols article tonight on the "vibes" problem we face:

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2023/12/feelings-and-vibes-cant-sustain-a-democracy/676891/?gift=otEsSHbRYKNfFYMngVFweNxOWd9y5kyXXJhS_-i86no&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=social

[Fergasun]

Nichols is missing something. 

 

COVID trauma. 

 

Also, political trauma.   A lot of people just want politics out of their face. 

 

Also, more and more Americans are still living paycheck to paycheck... saying "hey your paycheck isn bigger...".... yes, but so is the rent and groceries. Maybe a lot of people hate working because they have to...."the squeeze" feels so much heavier than any point in America.... 

 

What is also bizarre is that for such an underwater approval rating, Biden is still competitive with Trump.