2024 Presidential Election- 11/5/2024 : Prosecutor/Coach vs Felon/Couch *******

[Larry]

1 hour ago, tshile said:

 

and as a tangent - I think it’s sad and scary to consider the prospect that there may potentially be enough people who use this view of the economy to ignore the four years under Trump, 1/6, or what actual policy ideas mean and for whom, to the point that it puts in question whether Biden will win or not. 

 

Well, Presidential re-elections have always been referenda on the incumbent. And unless there's some major other factor (like a war), it's about the economy. (The percieved economy).

 

And if you think the thought of Trump getting elected scares you, just reflect. Without Covid, Trump cruises to reelection. 

[LadySkinsFan]

Democrats need to keep on comparing a Trump presidency to Fascism, all the time and loudly, and what that means. 

 

Women especially are losing their rights with birth control abolition and renouncing of female voting rights. It's real with these Fascists, they talk about it openly now. 

[bearrock]

I agree that most of the time that reelection is about a referendum on the incumbent, but this time, it feels like a referendum on the American voters.  There's no referendum to be had in Biden v. Trump because Trump is clearly unfit to be president.  And MAGAs can't lean on well anyone is better than demon du jour democrat because you have the perfectly sane option of picking someone else to be your party's candidate.  

 

Not that we should even need to get into the economics of a second Trump's presidency, but it's going to be bad.  US is going through a painful, but much needed period of high interest rate.  And each passing day makes it apparent that due to the underlying strength of the US economy (ironically) especially compared to the rest of the global economy, this period of high interest may need to be sustained to give inflationary pressures a chance to cool down.  Lot of economists at the start of rate hikes predicted a rapid rate hike resulting in a mild to moderate recession, resulting in a rate cut (but not all the way back down to the QE days).  It has not worked as well as the feds have hoped.  Inflation is still high 3's and they want it down to 2 to maybe mid 2's.  At minimum, 5%+ interest may need to stay that high for a while.  At worst, Feds may need to raise interest rates higher still (as Summers predicted recently).

 

Now the most credit I give Biden during his presidency is that he let Powell and the Fed Reserve do their job and didn't meddle in the rate hikes.  Imagine if Trump had his way during the 2018-19s and successfully pressured Powell and the Feds off of the interest rate hikes and shedding of assets.  Then when covid hits and the economy was cratering, the Feds would've been left without one of their most critical tools of economic levers.  That's the entire point of the Feds, they are supposed to balance the short and long term considerations so that US economy will be ready for whatever comes down the pipe.

 

I have little doubt that Trump would pressure the Feds (again) in his second term to cut rates.  I have little faith that he wouldn't push it beyond saber rattling and test the powers of the presidency to remove or demote the Fed chair.  It may juice the economy in the short term, but as Lagarde pointed out at Jackson Hole, the economic challenges facing developed countries may be different from the era of infinite production where controlling the spigot of capital availability (by the way of central bank interest rates) was sufficient to largely manage the heating and cooling of the economy.  We may be headed into a different paradigm now where best of circumstances and readiness  may still pose a challenge.  A president needs to have enough integrity and foresight to not meddle in preparing for that uncertain future even if it means there's an immediate hit to their approval rating.  But I have almost no confidence that enough American voters will see it that way (quite frankly, even be remotely aware of the issues).

[tshile]

51 minutes ago, Fergasun said:

@tshile

I am not trying to disagree at all. I think the Democratic party is in denial at how bad he looks, compared to 7, 12, 17 years ago.  He was way more feisty.  

 

SNL just made fun of him... will people blame SNL for him losing?  

 

I think the conventional wisdom about incumbent advantage... should be ignored. 

 

All I want for Christmas is Biden to not run for President again.  He is already such an improbable President. Good for him... but people want someone closer to their age. 

Another thing, as pointed out by someone at work when discussing at lunch:

 

generic democrat and generic republican are the two best candidates in the country. If only we could find them. 
 

 

49 minutes ago, Corcaigh said:

Why this time?

For many it seems to be that he’s willing to say the things they’ve always wished others would say. 
 

seems many of them just want a bully. 

[Captain Wiggles]

More "generic" Republicans like Mike Johnson? 🤣

[88Comrade2000]

I like this Generic candidate. He or she should wipe the floor against grandpa Don and Grandpa Joe.

[Larry]

12 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

I like this Generic candidate. He or she should wipe the floor against grandpa Don and Grandpa Joe.

 

 

 

[The Evil Genius]

 

[Captain Wiggles]

Alina Habba thinking get me the **** outta here. 🤣

 

Her resume is ridiculously unimpressive. Is Widener University considered a powerhouse in the lawyerin world? 

 

Lmfao apparently David C. Weiss and Don McGahn also got their law degrees there as well. Methinks Widener University ain't sending us their best people. 🤣

Edited November 6, 2023 by Captain Wiggles

[Jabbyrwock]

2 minutes ago, Captain Wiggles said:

Alina Habba thinking get me the **** outta here. 🤣

 

Her resume is ridiculously unimpressive. Is Widener University considered a powerhouse in the lawyerin world? 

https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/widener-university-3313

Widener University is a private institution that was founded in 1821. It has a total undergraduate enrollment of 2,555 (fall 2022), and the campus size is 108 acres. It utilizes a semester-based academic calendar. Widener University's ranking in the 2024 edition of Best Colleges is National Universities, #227. Its tuition and fees are $53,638.

[tshile]

Its 227 ranking is actually a tie 

 

important to know exactly where in the 200’s your school ranks when dropping 50k per semester 

 

 

Edited November 6, 2023 by tshile

[Captain Wiggles]

Ranked 227. 🤣

 

[Jabbyrwock]

4 minutes ago, tshile said:

Its 227 ranking is actually a tie 

 

important to know exactly where in the 200’s your school ranks when dropping 50k per semester 

 

 

 

4 minutes ago, Captain Wiggles said:

Ranked 227. 🤣

 

 

Hey now...its a prime university.

[tshile]

I didn’t know they ranked to 227. 

[Captain Wiggles]

2 minutes ago, tshile said:

I didn’t know they ranked to 227. 

 

Well there are like 440 universities. 🤭

 

My school is ranked #352 out of 439 National Universities. Tho one can still get a four year degree there for <$15k. Ah good ol public schools. 

[tshile]

Gmu’s college of computer science was ranked 44

 

i always sort of thought that wasn’t great because I’m always surrounded by people that went to colleges ranked in the top 10/15 for what they do. 
 

but 50k for 227 lol

it mentions nursing specifically which is better but my wife is going to the #1 ranked at the moment (depending on where you check) and it’s not half that expensive 😂 

Edited November 7, 2023 by tshile

[88Comrade2000]

 

[Renegade7]

8 hours ago, Cooked Crack said:

 

 

No ****...

 

Folks are just bored or looking to make clickbait asking stupid questions like Generic Democrat vs Trump...this whole polling this is a joke right now...stop trying to give me heartburn, please...

[ixcuincle]

 

 

[The Evil Genius]

Many say huh? 

[Cooked Crack]

 

[Momma There Goes That Man]

14 hours ago, PleaseBlitz said:

Also pretty funny that people "don’t give a **** about GPD growth" when it's great but cuts against their agenda.  When Trump was in office, that and jobs were all he talked about. 

dems Don’t message this though. Biden should be on every tv station and new program, giving interviews and press conferences from the rose garden about how amazing the gdp is and how it’s unprecedented job growth etc. 

 

trump would be doing this and republicans do this constantly until It’s part of the established lore. It’s why people polled still think trump and republicans are better for the economy. Because they constantly told us they are for 30 years. 

[Renegade7]

@Momma There Goes That Man

 

Right now feels like a catch-22 because trying to connect himself too strongly to a surging economy would be trying himself to one of the largest reasons the Fed has been raising interest rates slow down inflation.

 

Republicans would walk right into that trap with only tax cuts to offer to any criticism.  Thats why id rather see Dems point to the realities in who's been lowering versus raising the deficit over the last 30 years in response to Republican tax cuts.

 

Dems have way more control over budgeting then the overall economy, something safer to try and own, imo.

[Simmsy]

Got my vote in, don't expect a lot of coverage, but would like to be able to watch some when I get home,

[@DCGoldPants]

6 hours ago, Momma There Goes That Man said:

Biden should be on every tv station and new program, giving interviews and press conferences from the rose garden about how amazing the gdp is and how it’s unprecedented job growth etc. 

 

Don't even need him doing it. Need ads with videos of people working, gas prices coming down, and a voice that sounds like Morgan Freeman or Tom Hanks talking about it. Then video from news broadcasts in 2020 when people lost jobs during covid and toilet paper was like gold. Asking the audience why's they want to go back to that. 

 

The messenger needs to be voices that sounds very common sense. Or folksy. Depending on the market. It's more about creating doubt about Trump and planting those seeds for people who even don't want Biden to think "****, we go back to the last guy and this could happen again, or he wants laws that are in my bedroom, or faith, or doctors office" 

 

Slow build. So the audience doesn't get mad or defensive. Just starts to get concerned that Trump will **** it up and that should be stopped. 

Edited November 7, 2023 by @DCGoldPants