Next Day Thread: Vikings Pillaged Our Pride

[“Misdirection”]

Watched recorded so didn’t get the live commentary. What was the consensus on the St. Juste pick-6 PI call? In real time I thought we got robbed someone talk me off the ledge 😂

[Warhead36]

10 minutes ago, “Misdirection” said:

Watched recorded so didn’t get the live commentary. What was the consensus on the St. Juste pick-6 PI call? In real time I thought we got robbed someone talk me off the ledge 😂

No he definitely had his hands all over him. I'm not gonna kill Juste though, he played a good game and aggressiveness is part of it. 

[skinsmania123]

Really enjoyed watching the D line play. In fact, the entire unit played well together.  And the game was entertaining. I hate losing, but it is much worse, when neither unit has energy and strong effort in the game. There is no question that Heinike energizes the O but what I found to be really difficult to watch yesterday was all the tipped balls (I counted 4), and his inaccuracy.  I was shocked he did not have 3 picks. So, the INT by Heinike was expected.  It is just what he does.  I also think they went to Robinson too much in this game. I thought Gibson just had more quickness and power to his runs, and I wanted them to use him more.   As an aside, Ron Rivera's clock management is abysmal, and I have no idea why he threw that flag to contest a yard when it would be 3 and 1. We needed that TO. He just seems vacant to me at times.

 

One more thing I notice is that Heinike seems to do better in a hurry up offense, and looking ahead, I think that is how they should start the game against the Eagles. no huddle, and just move the ball quickly. 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

32 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

No he definitely had his hands all over him. I'm not gonna kill Juste though, he played a good game and aggressiveness is part of it. 

St. Juste seems to have adopted the Richard Sherman strategy, getting grabby most every snap, knowing the refs won’t throw their flag every time.  
 

This play in particular was an obvious flag, but overall I want BSJ to keep doing what he’s been doing.

[KDawg]

I think there is a point about our defense not having Holcomb and being better, too. I'm not necessarily placing it ON Holcomb, but who is leading the D with him out? Some credit should go there.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[mhd24]

8 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I think there is a point about our defense not having Holcomb and being better, too. I'm not necessarily placing it ON Holcomb, but who is leading the D with him out? Some credit should go there.

Holcomb just is so meh.  He's always out of place.  I can't believe I'm saying this, but Bostic has been an upgrade.

[KDawg]

Just now, mhd24 said:

Holcomb just is so meh.  He's always out of place.  I can't believe I'm saying this, but Bostic has been an upgrade.

Starting to wonder if Bostic was making so many bad mistakes before because he was trying to cover for Holcomb. No proof of that and haven't watched close enough to even say that's an educated guess. Its more just pondering. 

[UK Skins]

I think I heard the commentators call out Bostic last night for a helluva game. Nice to hear

[Panninho]

 

 

Some more context on the Davis grade

[KDawg]

6 minutes ago, Panninho said:

 

 

Some more context on the Davis grade

 

I am not a fan of PFF grades. I think they are outright wrong fairly often on defense.

 

Having said that: Davis is really playing like a first rounder. And every week I say the same thing and I will continue to... it's awfully quiet lately form the "Davis is a bust" crowd.

 

It's almost like a raw LB that was drafted in the first due to his potential was going to take a little time to get up to speed. Strange how that works. 

[Warhead36]

Davis always projected to be a good OLB. It was a colossal mistake playing him at MLB last year. If he had started at OLB from last year, we're probably talking about a Pro Bowl caliber player right now. But I am happy with his development thus far after a bad two games to start the year.

33 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I think there is a point about our defense not having Holcomb and being better, too. I'm not necessarily placing it ON Holcomb, but who is leading the D with him out? Some credit should go there.

Curl has taken over the defensive leadership role and has been great at it. Dude should make the Pro Bowl this year, he's been terrific.

22 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Starting to wonder if Bostic was making so many bad mistakes before because he was trying to cover for Holcomb. No proof of that and haven't watched close enough to even say that's an educated guess. Its more just pondering. 

I think Holcomb is a fine SSLB but he's dumb as rocks. He is absolutely not a leader of the defense type but he was playing well before his injury.

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Davis always projected to be a good OLB. It was a colossal mistake playing him at MLB last year. If he had started at OLB from last year, we're probably talking about a Pro Bowl caliber player right now. But I am happy with his development thus far after a bad two games to start the year.

Curl has taken over the defensive leadership role and has been great at it. Dude should make the Pro Bowl this year, he's been terrific.

I think Holcomb is a fine SSLB but he's dumb as rocks. He is absolutely not a leader of the defense type but he was playing well before his injury.

 

1) He didn't have two bad games to start the year.

 

2) He plays ILB still.

 

3) Generally there is a secondary guy adjusting the back end and a LB adjusting the front. Curl has been a top 3 player on our D the last three seasons.

 

4) I don't think it's fair to call Holcomb dumb. I don't know the guy. I also don't know that he's been playing well. He has had good moments. And he gets a bunch of tackles, so if that is your definition of "well", then sure. That works. 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Jamin Davis also looks like a guy who is only going to get better as he builds confidence week by week.  You can tell he’s more comfortable with his assignments just by the intensity he’s been playing with.

[HigSkin]

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

44 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

@Skinsinparadise this is not a cut at you or your post....

 

And this is why I think PFF grades are pretty much trash. And then by extension all the metrics they base on their grades, which is a lot, are also trash. They get it right sometimes, but I'm honestly not sure if they just get it right because of luck or skill.  

 

Jon Allen did his job better than Jamin Davis did his.  And that's not even remotely a slight at Jamin Davis.  I think Davis is developing into a heck of a good player.

 

But anybody who knows anything about football could watch the game and tell you the whole defense revolved around Payne and Allen.  And there is no question in my mind they should have been the 2 highest rated players, at least on defense. They certainly had more of an impact than Sweat and Davis on the opposing offense.  In fact, I could make an argument both Sweat and Davis benefited from Allen and Payne. If you're going to be the great grand arrogant pooh-bah ass hats of statistical analysis, then your statistical analysis should be able to figure that out.  But it never has been able to.  

 

Its tough to entirely grade Samuel (or any of the offensive skill position players) without looking at the coaches film to see how much they are open, when they get separation, etc.  when the ball doesn't come their way for whatever reason. But my bet is they gave him some bonus points for that REALLY GOOD catch for a TD, which is great, but couldn't really factor into the equation if the back judge doesn't completely take out the trailing safety, that ball is at best knocked down, or at worst intercepted, but it never reaches Samuel.  That's not on Samuel, but he was triple covered. I give him enormous kudos for making the catch.  But if you're grading the play, and you're being honest, how much of that was just pure dumb luck?

 

I also am wiling to bet St. Juste was docked because of the DPI (which was DPI, but close) and he gave up a few catches to Jefferson.  Who is in the argument for the best WR in the league.  And it felt like Juicey followed him all over the field and played the "premier" CB against him the entire day.  Even when Jefferson made a catch, Juice was never out of position.  I'd think THAT would get a high grade as well.

 

I have a crusade against PFF grades, and I get that.  But every week, they keep putting out stuff which is wrong, and the stat-heads keep eating it up.  Probably my biggest put-off from the off-season was Ron kept saying they had the 6th highest rated OL per PFF.  I mean, so what?

39 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I am not a fan of PFF grades. I think they are outright wrong fairly often on defense.

I just said this with a lot more words.   

[Darrell Green Fan]

I have not been overly impressed with the defense, I thought fans were given them way too much credit for shutting down bad offenses.  But I can't say that anymore because that was a good offense that they held off yesterday.

 

I'm really happy to see the improvement by Davis and I will happily admit that I was wrong if that turns out to be the case.  I have no idea what fans are seeing in Brian Robinson, he looks like the definition of just a guy. Look around the league at the other runningbacks and tell me this guy is as good or better than them. I sure don't see it

Edited November 7, 2022 by Darrell Green Fan

[dunfer]

4 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 I have no idea what fans are seeing in Brian Robinson, he looks like the definition of just a guy. Look around the league at the other runningbacks and tell me this guy is as good or better than them. I sure don't see it

yeah hes probably just another guy, but hes a big one on the roster that you should use in 4th and 1 situations if you arent going to sneak Turner

[El Mexican]

10 hours ago, method man said:

That’s supposed to be Bates. He is fine as a blocking TE

 

Is he? Seems more like a receiving TE without the mobility of such types on other teams.

[Voice_of_Reason]

General thoughts:

 

- Regardless of what we all think of Heiny-Heiny, one thing is clear: Ron and Scott think the only way you can win with Heiny-Heiny is the formula for the 4 game win streak last year + 3 game win streak this year:  

  -- Run the ball a ton, more runs than pass attempts, ideally

  -- Play extremely good defense

  -- Get 1 or 2 good thing to happen on ST or Defense

  -- Convert a few third downs and get 2 long drives which result in points

  -- Hope for 1-2 Moxy Magic moments

  -- Try to win something like a 20-17, 17-15 type of game.

  -- Don't make the big mistake to lose the game at the end.

 

And I don't think they are wrong.  And of the games TH has started since the 4-game winning streak has started, they've tried this in every game, and they've won 8 of them.  Even in games he doesn't play well, they won 5 last year (including the season finale at the Giants when TH was horrid but they used the same tactic), and the 3 games this year.

 

I don't think they are going to divert from this approach.  And our defense is probably good enough to keep us in a lot of games. Even if TH starts the rest of the season, they probably will win about as many games as they lose with that approach.  Best guess, they lose to the Eagles, could beat Houston and Atlanta, split with the Giants, and go 1-2 or 2-1 against SF, Cleveland and Dallas.  (Dallas might not be playing anybody).  So, assuming Heiny-Heiny starts the remainder of the year, they probably go 6-4-ish with him as the starter to finish around 7-10 or 9-8.  

 

I don't think they wanted to be that type of team, and that's why they put a "OPEN HOUSE!" sign out front of Command HQ for literally anybody who is better.  They ended up with Wentz. 

 

Yesterday was the absolute prototypical TH QB game:  

- They ran the ball 2 more times than they passed it, 30 vs. 28.  Some were by WRs and TEs. They averaged 4.6 yards a rush, including the WR/TE rushes. CHECK (form list above, these are going to be in the same order.)

- The defense was outstanding. CHECK.

- They got a pick in the end-zone and a 45 yard kickoff return from Gibson.  That's the "1 or 2 good things to happen on ST or Defense" part. CHECK.

- They had drives of 11 plays, and 2 10 play drives. CHECK

- They got 3! "moxie magic" moments, including having the back judge WRECK the safety who was about to make a play on the TD to Samuel.  2 really good throws with guys in his face where he bought time and made something happen.  Throw in a good throw on the TD to Milne if you want, that's 4 "Moxie Magic" plays.

- They were leading by 10 in the 4th quarter 17-7. On the way to a check but...

- TH threw a back-breaking INT to give the Vikings the ball deep in Commander's territory, and then they had a ST penalty which zapped any possibility of a last drive Moxie Magic moment.  

 

The issue with playing this way, you have to be perfect.  You have to be a little lucky.  And everything has to go exactly your way, or you lose.  There is no margin for error.

 

They absolutely, at least to this point, believe this is the only way to win with TH at QB. I don't know if they are right or wrong, but Scott Turner is basically his biggest fan and brings him everywhere he goes, so you'd think if he trusted TH to do more, he would have show that by this point.  But he hasn't, and that tells you really all you need know about what they really think of TH's abilities.  

 

Other Odds and Ends:

- The OL was really inconsistent.  There were times when they lost immediately, and there were times when they pass protected fairly well and TH stepped into a few sacks and evaded the wrong way.  It wasn't total trash, but it wasn't very good either.  If Wentz comes back (which I think he will if they lose to the Eagles), you'll see a few more sacks and a few more big plays.  Will they off-set?  I don't know.  

 

- I love watching the development of St. Juste and Davis.  And the core of the defense, Allen, Payne, Davis, St. Juice and Curl is really exciting.  If Young comes back and is the Young of his rookie year at any point this year, the defense looks to have a REALLY good core for the next several years.  

 

- Samuel is a very good addition to this team.  Pity he missed basically all of last year.

 

- I didn't have a problem with the 4th-1 play call.  The QB was given 3 options:  a guy coming underneath, who if open is an easy pitch-catch, a trailing WR, and the ability to run.  They tried a smash-mouth 4th down play last week and were stuffed.  It was a contested catch, but if TH puts the ball just about a foot in front of McLaurin, they probably get it.  I liked the play seemed to have a QB keeper option built in.  If the defender sucks up to defend TH, then they leave the underneath player wide open, and it's an easy completion.  I need to see it again, but I kidnof think TH could have run for it if he puts his foot in the ground and cuts behind the defender/receiver breaking to the flat.  

 

- I love watching both Robinson and Gibson play.

 

 

 

[dunfer]

20 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 I didn't have a problem with the 4th-1 play call.  The QB was given 3 options:  a guy coming underneath, who if open is an easy pitch-catch, a trailing WR, and the ability to run.  They tried a smash-mouth 4th down play last week and were stuffed.  It was a contested catch, but if TH puts the ball just about a foot in front of McLaurin, they probably get it.  I liked the play seemed to have a QB keeper option built in.  If the defender sucks up to defend TH, then they leave the underneath player wide open, and it's an easy completion.  I need to see it again, but I kidnof think TH could have run for it if he puts his foot in the ground and cuts behind the defender/receiver breaking to the flat. 

 

Think it was their rookie db already had terry's right arm wrapped up before the ball got there. If the ball was in front of terry instead of his chest we may have gotten the PI mabye

Yeah TH shouldve just run and dove for it

Edited November 7, 2022 by dunfer

[Renegade7]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

 

I am not a fan of PFF grades. I think they are outright wrong fairly often on defense.

 

Having said that: Davis is really playing like a first rounder. And every week I say the same thing and I will continue to... it's awfully quiet lately form the "Davis is a bust" crowd.

 

It's almost like a raw LB that was drafted in the first due to his potential was going to take a little time to get up to speed. Strange how that works. 

 

I'm ready for my crow to eat.

 

In my defense, I despise taking projects with first round picks.

 

It becomes less about the skillset and more about the situation they are in in cases like that.  The risk of screwing up project developments with this franchise is real and documented.

 

Tape don't lie, he's Ballin now, kudos to him and coaching staff for not fn this up.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

@Skinsinparadise this is not a cut at you or your post....

 

And this is why I think PFF grades are pretty much trash. And then by extension all the metrics they base on their grades, which is a lot, are also trash. They get it right sometimes, but I'm honestly not sure if they just get it right because of luck or skill.  

 

Jon Allen did his job better than Jamin Davis did his.  And that's not even remotely a slight at Jamin Davis.  I think Davis is developing into a heck of a good player.

 

 

 

PFF can be good in some cases if you factor context and add your own takes where you bring your own context.  As for you being convinced Allen did a better job than Davis did in his job.  That's cool.  For me, I have to rewatch games to have definitive takes like that.  Because watching it live, its tough not to be influenced by what the annoucers focus on and where the cameras are focused on.

 

Not saying you are saying otherwise but every team in the NFL doesn't subscribe to PFF because coaches-personnel guys are fooled by the service.   For example Jonathan Allen specifically was hailed by PFF a couple of years ago for being a pass rushing force even though he didn't have many sacks.

 

The dude who covers the team for PFF talked about the DT grades and said sometimes they get unfairly graded down, especially tackles who get a lot of reps like Payne and Allen do because the tackles who rotate more are fresher and often in turn have less plays where they don't make an impact because they can get away with playing 100 miles an hour on every rep since they get less reps and can rest more.

 

I like using PFF as a tool but I also don't live and die with it.  I try to factor the context on my own.  Heck the draft grades can be for example very confusing because their grades often don't match their mock drafts.  They have some players with a 88 PFF score and put them in the 4th round while have a player with a 82 score and put them in the 2nd.  But if you listen to their analyists on this they will say even THEY aren't a slave to their scores and they bring their own context to it.

 

So again PFF is a tool.  It's not worthless.  It's not gospel.  Overall useful IMO and agree sometime it can lead you off track.

Edited November 7, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Zim489]

What I expected to happen with Taylor under center has happened. The run game has declined. Traditional runs with a RB were 3.3 ypc and roughly what they have been averaging the past 3 games. 

 

Also I am wholly unimpressed with Robinson. He'll read the right hole the play was designed for with the designed amount of yardage and nothing more. Theres zero wiggle and shake to him.

 

Its also clear to me that they want to use Robinson more early to wear teams down and then use gibson more in the second half. 

[Skinsinparadise]

I like Sweat more than some do.  My issue with him is he doesn't finish, pressure, yes but need some sacks.  I saw him get in Kirk's face a number of times but finish it!