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The 2022 Regular Season Prediction Thread

zCommander

By zCommander
in The Stadium

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What The Record Will Be?  

86 members have voted

  1. 1. The Record


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KillBill26

KillBill26

Posted
Posted

7-10.   My optimism has waned as the summer has gone on.  On paper and trying to see the glass half full, it's possible to talk yourself into a good season coming up.  However, the Skins can't get out of their own way, so what can go wrong, will go wrong.

 

I feel being frustrated with the defense is inevitable, so I'm just hoping Wentz shows he can be successful leading the offense.  Hoping they gel as the season goes on, and they limit dumb mistakes/penalties.

 

Either way, excited for the season to start.

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SkinsWmsbg

SkinsWmsbg

Posted
Posted
On 6/9/2022 at 11:49 AM, zCommander said:

 

Aside from the whole respect/disrespect thing it is really hard for me to believe that Hurts is better than Wentz and therefor the Eagles will have a better record than us. I know they keep on saying that the Eagles have improved this year but their QB is still the same though. If our D can be like it was from two years ago we are going to make some serious noise in our division. 

 

If Hurts is half the man he was against us last year that should be good enough to win them 10 games unfortunately. 

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Skinsinparadise

Skinsinparadise

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ASHBURN - In June 2020, investors started buying up Hertz car rental stock in huge quantities.

This was particularly unusual because the company was bankrupt, and the stock likely about to become worthless. Still, the price briefly surged from 40 cents to $5.53.

It takes a similar amount of bravado to buy in on the Washington Commanders right now.

The trade to make Carson Wentz the starting quarterback was met with a shrug, a defense that wildly underachieved last year returns pretty much intact, and the star receiver and quarterback didn't look like they were on the same page for much of training camp.

Off the field, team president Jason Wright bragged last month about how quickly the fanbase went from "hate it" to "neutral" on the new name.

 

With owner Dan Snyder seemingly no closer to leaving than he was five years ago, and zero momentum towards helping Snyder construct a new stadium with tax dollars, it's tough for fans to justify a weekly trek to Landover.

 

 

But enough of the bad news. As we embark on the 2022 season, I'm predicting a small, burgundy-and-gold tinted ray of sunshine. I think the Commanders go 10-7 this year and make the playoffs.

 

Let's break it down.

Offense: National rankings mostly have Wentz in the mid-20s among all NFL quarterbacks, hardly inspiring territory.

But Wentz has a number of things going for him in Washington. He's not following a line of legends like he was in Indianapolis, he has a solid supporting cast, and with the NFL dropping its COVID rules, he'll once again be able to have lunch with players at the team facility and build relationships, what he described as "the things that make this game fun." (Wentz did not get the vaccine, leaving him restricted last year.)

 

Perhaps most importantly, he has an offensive coordinator in Scott Turner who won't be afraid to take chances. Washington's success this year hinges on whether the deep ball can be successful - and with Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson on the other end of those passes, there's at least a decent chance the Commanders can make this work.

 
 

Defense: Make no mistake about it, coordinator Jack Del Rio starts the season on the hot seat.

The defense has enough talent on paper, but struggled to put it together last year until midway through the season. Coach Ron Rivera is betting on continuity, as well as second-year leaps from linebacker Jamin Davis and cornerback Benjamin St-Juste.

 

But regression to the mean works both directions, and for the Commanders, that means this group should put up better numbers than last year's squad.

The schedule: The biggest reason Washington should be expected to take a step forward is its schedule, which is, by some metrics, the easiest in the NFL.

The Commanders went 7-10 last year with Taylor Heinicke and a brutal slate. This year it's Carson Wentz and a much easier jaunt around the league. That alone should be worth a couple wins.

 

Washington opens with Jacksonville and Detroit, two very winnable games, and also gets treated to matchups with Chicago, Houston and Atlanta as well as two against the New York Giants. Even allowing for the occasional slip-up, that's a group of opponents the Commanders should comfortably handle.

The schedule is handled by a formula, but it's almost as if the league is begging Washington to stay relevant this season.

 

Bottom line: Washington might not yet be near the top tier of NFL teams, but it's not unreasonable to expect a step forward off last year's results.

There's nothing that can be done about the game-day experience at FedEx Field, but a couple wins will at least start the Commanders era on a positive note, and there are enough playmakers that there should be some highlight-worthy plays.

And sometimes, getting in at rock bottom can pay off.

 

Hertz benefited from a surge in used-car prices during the pandemic, and suddenly found itself awash in value. Investors who bought in during bankruptcy were ultimately paid off at $8 a share, turning a tidy profit.

 
 
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D’Pablo

D’Pablo

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Posted

5-12. I have zero faith in our defense. Prior to the preseason, I was pretty bullish, expecting 9+ wins. Yet, I can’t ignore the obvious flaws on display to the world. Watching us against the Chiefs brought back horrific memories of the Chargers last season.
 

Coincidentally, I think Wentz might approach some career numbers because of how he’ll need to throw to keep us in games. It is not going to be pretty, and the refs ****ing hate us, too. The media hates us even more, and I think the NFL loves having an evil “Washington Generals” franchise folks can **** on. Why does this matter? Because our players are immersed in this nonsense nonstop, sapping their will to get it done on the field.

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Zim489

Zim489

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Posted

Something I havent understood this offseason has been the Vegas line. It has held firm the entire offseason at 7.5 in most places. It is currently the most one sided bet on the board with the over. With the line not moving its telling me that Vegas is beyond happy to take the money. They fully expect us to implode. National media is one thing. Vegas is another. 

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88Comrade2000

88Comrade2000

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2 hours ago, Zim489 said:

Something I havent understood this offseason has been the Vegas line. It has held firm the entire offseason at 7.5 in most places. It is currently the most one sided bet on the board with the over. With the line not moving its telling me that Vegas is beyond happy to take the money. They fully expect us to implode. National media is one thing. Vegas is another. 

7 is our lucky number. After all 4 out last 5 years ; we only won 7 games.

 

Dan should’ve renamed us the Sevens.

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Command The 414

Command The 414

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Posted

Barring a injury to Wentz I can not see how anyone sees us going 7-10 again & w/a much easier schedule…. I’m not a homer but I see at worse 8-9 and if everything works in our favor easily 10-7… I don’t think a playoff spot though cause at this point on paper the Eagles & Boys are better but they could easily fall short… listen I still think their HC’s are both iffy 

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Skinsinparadise

Skinsinparadise

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Here’s a look at what the experts are saying about Washington’s prospects for 2022:

In an enjoyable annual exercise in which he makes the case for all 32 teams to win the Super Bowl, Bill Barnwell acknowledges that “it would have been absolutely impossible to project Cincinnati to win the AFC North, let alone advance out of the AFC to the Super Bowl” last season. Based on ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) metric, the Bengals had only a 14.6 percent chance to make the playoffs at the start of the 2021 campaign.

This season, FPI gives Washington a 37 percent chance to qualify for the postseason. The Commanders have a 2.5 percent chance to win the Super Bowl, which are the 19th-best odds and one spot behind … the Bengals. Barnwell notes that Wentz should be an upgrade at QB, but the key to a surprising turnaround in Washington is the defense.

 

The Commanders are 21st in ESPN’s preseason power rankings. Analyst Matt Bowen boldly predicts Chase Young will register 12.5 sacks, despite missing at least the first four games of the season as he continues to recover from a torn ACL.

The site’s forecast model gives Washington a 40 percent chance to make the playoffs and an 18 percent chance to win the division. The team’s average simulated record is 8-9, with a point differential of minus-4.2.

Football Outsiders projects 7.3 wins for Washington, a 9.2 percent chance to win the division and a 25.4 percent chance to make the playoffs.

Wentz is 27th in Steven Ruiz’s initial quarterback rankings, behind the likes of Geno Smith, Daniel Jones and Baker Mayfield. Woof.

 

“Carson Wentz has all the necessary tools to play at a top-10 level, as we saw earlier in his career,” Ruiz writes. “But his mechanics are shot, and his decisiveness is at an all-time low. That leads to throws that are either late or off target — and far too often both.”

The Commanders are 23rd in Austin Gayle’s first power rankings, and Sheil Kapadia offers the bold(ish) prediction that Wentz won’t be with Washington beyond this season.

None of USA Today’s seven experts pick Washington to make the playoffs, and no Commander receives a nod for any of the individual end-of-season awards.

Mike Florio and Chris Simms of Pro Football Talk both predict over 7.5 wins for Washington.

 

“For all the dysfunction, for all the stupidness, for all the self-inflicted wounds, I am a firm believer in Ron Rivera,” Florio said. “He is the best thing that organization has going by far and he could be good enough to help lift the organization to eight wins, which would be regarded as, I think to most people, an astounding outcome for the season.”

All five of PFT’s writers, including Florio, predict Washington will miss the playoffs. The only mention of the Commanders in Peter King’s season predictions post is the following line: “Carson Wentz survives some struggles to play a full year in Washington.”

At least one member of MMQB’s eight-person staff picks the long shot Carolina Panthers, New York Giants and Detroit Lions to make the playoffs, but no one predicts the Commanders will reach the postseason. Washington is 25th in MMQB’s first power rankings.

 

CBS

John Breech predicts a 6-11 finish for the Commanders. Jeff Kerr says Washington’s ceiling is 10-7 and its floor is 7-10, which makes for a tiny, mediocre room.

None of the Athletic’s 43 (!) NFL reporters and editors pick Washington to make the playoffs. The Cowboys (22 votes) and Eagles (21) are the favorites to win the NFC East.

The Commanders are 30th in Dan Hanzus’s Week 1 power rankings.

The Commanders are 23rd in Frank Schwab’s first power rankings.

PFF

Sam Monson’s bold predictions include a playoff berth for Washington and a defense that improves by at least 10 spots.

Vinnie Iyer predicts Washington will finish 5-12, tied for last in the division with the Giants.

How’s this for optimism? Five of the SB Nation site’s 12 writers predict Washington will make the playoffs, with record projections ranging from 5-12 to 11-6.

The Commanders are 21st in Mark Maske’s first power rankings.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/09/08/commanders-predictions-nfl-experts/

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Koolblue13

Koolblue13

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Posted
23 minutes ago, moondog said:

I agree that the media seems more down on us than they should be. That being said, if we lose to jax, this board will nearly unanimously erupt in flames predicting a number 1 overall pick. 

Probably. I really like the Jags though and think they'll finish second to the Titans in that division this year, but I don't think it'll start week 1.

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88Comrade2000

88Comrade2000

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41 minutes ago, moondog said:

I agree that the media seems more down on us than they should be. That being said, if we lose to jax, this board will nearly unanimously erupt in flames predicting a number 1 overall pick. 

The only way that happens; Ron gets fired in season.   We have a bad yea r; Ron will find a way to win at least 6 g ames.

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Zim489

Zim489

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7 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

That's unbelievable. I just dont see how we lose that much. Were more talented with an easier schedule. Cowboys got worse and already have injury concerns. Giants will stink.

 

We have got to win our first two games. We just have to.

I think we lose vs detroit. I think the giants will still stink but be improved. I think our best we can do in division is 3-3. I cant get them to losing less than 7 but I have a hard time picking them in 9 too. 

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The Rook

The Rook

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Posted

I am so tired of hoping to catch lightening in a bottle with a QB.  Wentz has better arm talent than what the team has had in a long time BUT I do not get that "follow-me-boys, I won't let you down" attitude from him.  

 

I'm betting the under 7.5 :(

(but hoping for better).🤞

 

 

 

 

 

 

:229:The Rook

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