2023 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[PlayAction]

I don't have confidence in this team's ability to manage the roster (by current or former GMs - or coaches filling that responsibility).  I don't want BPA in the first or second rounds if it's going to be a TE, WR or DE.  The team doesn't need another WR if it can't feed its top 3 WRs enough now.  The team has too much invested in the DLine now and shouldn't make the problem worse when the deficiencies in the rest of the team prevent it from being successful.  We do need the OL.  We do need another CB.  OT and CB are high value positions and, if the draft is indeed deep, then it's time to stock up especially for the Oline (they need two replacements in the near term).  Wish list - OT, G, CB and LB.      

[Conn]

If you don’t trust this staff’s roster management, then you should prefer BPA even more if we’re being honest, because it gives the next regime the most talent and value to work with rather than prioritizing short term needs in a panic situation. 

[KDawg]

1 hour ago, PlayAction said:

I don't have confidence in this team's ability to manage the roster (by current or former GMs - or coaches filling that responsibility).  I don't want BPA in the first or second rounds if it's going to be a TE, WR or DE.  The team doesn't need another WR if it can't feed its top 3 WRs enough now.  The team has too much invested in the DLine now and shouldn't make the problem worse when the deficiencies in the rest of the team prevent it from being successful.  We do need the OL.  We do need another CB.  OT and CB are high value positions and, if the draft is indeed deep, then it's time to stock up especially for the Oline (they need two replacements in the near term).  Wish list - OT, G, CB and LB.      

 

Keep in mind: A 1st round rookie WR means Samuel is gone and we get a cap savings from it.

 

OL is very deep. Taking Ot3 over TE1 in this class is a blunder, imo. Now, if the team has my OT3 as OT1 then I suppose it makes sense. But we can only go by what we know.

 

I'd like BPA, but as always weighted with need. 

Edited January 23, 2023 by KDawg

[Chump Bailey]

Texas A&M CB #17 Jaylon Jones could be a riser.

Edited January 23, 2023 by Chump Bailey

[Skinsinparadise]

Bucky Brooks' mock.

 

He has who I agree are the top 3 corners going back to back to back with Witherspoon going us.

 

Speaking for myself while i am still digesting, I digested enough where I'd be more than cool with Witherspoon if that's what happens.

 

 

 

 

[Rolo Tomasie]

On 1/21/2023 at 9:13 PM, Going Commando said:

Some of my most glaring misses:

 

- I had Quay Walker way too low

- Had Travon Walker too low

- Had Garrett Wilson too low

- Had Christian Watson too low

- Had Dax Hill too high

- Had Jordan Davis too high

- Had Malik Willis way too high

- Me everyone else in the world had Tariq Woolen way too low.  But to my credit, I did like him as a day three lotto ticket.

- Was way too low on George Pickens.  I can already tell this is going to end up being my worst miss from last year.  By far.  This kid is going to be a star and could very well be the best receiver from last year's class.

 

Pittsburgh is just a factory for developing knuckleheaded receivers into stars.  Dudes who don't thrive anywhere else they go, but just dominate in Pittsburgh.

Commando, I really commend you for going back and doing this sort of self-exploration. The only way we ever get better at evaluating these guys is to try to understand what we missed the last time around. I know a couple years ago after Haskins' rookie season, I was convinced he was going to be pretty good and I had serious doubts about Joe Burrow and his single year of excellence at LSU. But better to look back at that and try to figure out what fooled you then to pretend you really liked the successful player/didn't like the unsuccessful player all along. 

 

Last year I really liked Ekwonu, Lloyd, Quay, Sauce, Troy Anderson, Damone Clark, Chenal, and Brisker but did not especially like Muma, Pitre, Cine or Hill. At WR I liked Wilson and Watson, thought Olave was pretty good but didn't really like Drake, Pickens ( now like you I think he's going to be a star) and embarrassingly I don't think I ever even took a close look at Dotson - I thought he was too small to seriously consider. At QB I liked Zappe, I thought Pickett was boom or bust but probably bust, didn't like Purdy, and absolutely hated Matt Corral.

[Skinsinparadise]

A mock from Ryan Wilson, CBS. Seems like mock drafters think the run on corners start to happen at or pick.  I doubt that, i think 2 corners will be off the board by the time 16 comes.

 

Personally I think you got the Witherspoon, Gonzalez, Porter tier

 

then the next tier, probably 20-32:  Smith, Ringo, Banks.

 

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2023-nfl-mock-draft-from-with-the-first-pick-podcast-four-qbs-go-in-top-10-in-first-edition-of-joint-mock/

 

 

Round 1 - Pick 16

 

 

Joey Porter Jr. CB

PENN STATE • JR • 6'2" / 194 LBS

PROJECTED TEAM Washington

PROSPECT RNK 20th

POSITION RNK 5th

 

EDWARDS: Here's why Edwards made Joey Porter Jr. the first cornerback selected: "Joey Porter has a lot of length, they desperately need help at the cornerback position. That defense looked a little bit better this year than it looked a year ago, but not quite as good as they were two years ago. So, to add more talent on that backend, I think you're kind of fortifying what has become a strength for them until you do get that quarterback into place."

Edited January 23, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

 

While TE isn't a code red need, its a need IMO.  And if they plan to go to town with Marty Ball, you need more than one good blocking TE to maximize that style.

 

Will see.  It might be wishful thinking on my end but I suspect they might consider adding to that spot.  Like i was saying this weekend, if they really want to pound the rock, how could they not fall in love with Mayer or D. Washington?

 

 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

Our TEs are awful. We definitely need to upgrade the position. I'm just weary of spending 1st round draft pick capital on one. The RoI has historically been poor on 1st round TEs. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

12 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Our TEs are awful. We definitely need to upgrade the position. I'm just weary of spending 1st round draft pick capital on one. The RoI has historically been poor on 1st round TEs. 

 

I hear you but why judge current players by other players?   And regardless, not a lot of TEs have been going in the first round and the ones who have in recent years, TJ Hockenson and Kyle Pitts looked great. 

 

Pitts was hurt this year but had a killer rookie season.  Hockenson is one of the better TEs in the league.  Mayer reminds me a lot of Hockenson but IMO he's even better than what we saw from Hockenson's college tape. 

 

2018 the first round TE busted.

 

2019:  Hockenson was a first rounder and better than the TEs taken in the other rounds hands down.  Fant taken later in the first is better than all the other TEs after IMO, Sample, Irv Smith, Sternberger, Jake Oliver taken in the 2nd-4th round, etc -- I think he's better than Dawson Knox but i'll give that Knox and Fant are close so maybe that's a tie.  But Fant IMO has more upside.

 

2020 no TE taken in the first

 

2021:  Pitts better than the other TEs taken after. 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[ToaCommander]

Given there are several top CBs that may be available at 16, would it be ideal to take a CB like Porter II, Gonzalez or Cam Smith at 16 and take a IOL or OT at 47 or later like Michael Schmitz or Cody Mauch etc...

 

Or take TE Mayer or Broderick Jones (OT) at 16 and take a CB like Jaylon Jones or Emmanuel Forbes etc... at 47 or later.

[Chump Bailey]

A TE that is growing on me is Purdue's Payne Durham. @Skinsinparadise already ahead of me no surprise

Edited January 23, 2023 by Chump Bailey

[Going Commando]

8 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Don't get me wrong, I don't think Mayer is a bad player or anything like that. Historically the track record for 1st round TEs is just really bad and I feel like people are gonna expect him to be Kelce or Gronk year 1 and be really disappointed, and this fan base tends to turn quick on hyped up young stars(look at Chase Young, and he actually lived up to the hype his rookie year and many fans STILL turned on him because he got hurt)which in turn either hinders their development or causes them to just leave and become great elsewhere.

 

I think the bust rate for TEs feels so high for three particular reasons:

 

1 - There just aren't that many.  You get wild swings from small samples, and there are fewer first round TEs than you even see with other low value positions like safety, center, and running back.  An NFL TE is a really rare body type of being a well put together 6'4+ and at least 240 pounds with 4.7 speed or better + especially good hand coordination.  There just aren't that many football players with that combination of traits plus the playing background necessary to make it to the NFL.  Guys who maybe have the body and athleticism for it are more likely going to get sorted into the much more valuable defensive end/edge position early on, and not develop the receiving skills to make it to the NFL as a TE.   Every team needs two defensive ends on the field for every defensive snap whereas you can play without tight ends and can easily play with just one guy there.  And then if your kid has that kind of body but can also throw, then you're going to play him as your QB.  And a lot of guys with a TE frame/body end up getting turned into OLs in college, especially if they have NFL track speed and a big frame. 

 

TE gets the bottom of the sorting heap after most of the NFL track guys with requisite bodies get turned into DEs, QBs, and OTs.  So there just aren't that many TE prospects to draft.  If Mayer hadn't been so phenomenally and obviously good at playing as a receiver from such a young age, he easily could have been put on track to play DE or OT at the next level instead.

 

2 - TE is like RB in that it is an especially violent position to play and they get hurt more than other positions do.  Health is a major reason why so many TEs bust, and it could sink Mayer too even though he's a rare and elite prospect at the position.  They have to wrestle with defensive ends and the routes they run usually take them through the underneath middle zones where they take violent contact from safeties and linebackers instead of corners.  It's so much worse to play TE than WR.  It almost feels like you need crazy meathead pro-wrestler guys like Gronk and Kittle and Kelce in order to be great.  Guys who are usually the hammer but don't at all fear being the nail from time to time.

 

3 - TE roles vary greatly from system to system.  This is one reason why I think RBs don't bust as much as TEs, because their roles tend to be more universal and they get lots more touches.  TJ Hockenson basically goes from being a bust to a good player just by changing from a system that didn't suit him to one where his role allowed him to flourish.  A TE like Mark Andrews could have easily busted out of the league if he hadn't landed on such a TE-centric system/situation, and instead he's one of the stars of the league.  Same for Kittle.  There are just more situations where certain kinds of TEs will never thrive compared to more generalist playmakers like backs and receivers.

 

It's not that Mayer is more likely to bust because he's a TE with first round pedigree, you just have to make that the fit is good scheme vs skill set, and hope that he can stay healthy.

[skinny21]

10 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

A TE that is growing on me is Purdue's Payne Durham. Might be a good value pick?

Kind of an interesting dilemma as the team seemed pretty high on their 3 rookie TEs (though I’m not sure if that opinion changed any through the course of the season), but we didn’t get much production from the position.  So they have to balance the numbers side of it (ie 5 young TEs), with the knowledge that TE seem to take time to develop.  Going to be interesting to see what they do.

 

Speaking of value…

Curious about people’s take, philosophically, on how to handle a draft that’s deep at a position of need (as corner seems to be).  Take a first rounder, take a 1st rounder and then another later, or address another position knowing you’ve got a chance at a high value player (corner) later?  

 

[The Consigliere]

On 1/21/2023 at 6:13 PM, Going Commando said:

Some of my most glaring misses:

 

- I had Quay Walker way too low

- Had Travon Walker too low

- Had Garrett Wilson too low

- Had Christian Watson too low

- Had Dax Hill too high

- Had Jordan Davis too high

- Had Malik Willis way too high

- Me everyone else in the world had Tariq Woolen way too low.  But to my credit, I did like him as a day three lotto ticket.

- Was way too low on George Pickens.  I can already tell this is going to end up being my worst miss from last year.  By far.  This kid is going to be a star and could very well be the best receiver from last year's class.

 

Pittsburgh is just a factory for developing knuckleheaded receivers into stars.  Dudes who don't thrive anywhere else they go, but just dominate in Pittsburgh.

 

I tend to only pay attention to who I think we might draft positionally, and a lot on dynasty relevant guys. For me, I had the WR's as:

1.London

2.Wilson

3.Williamson

4.Pickens

5.T. Burks

6. C. Olave

7. Moore

 

Right now it looks like Skyy Moore might be a miss. Williamson was hurt for 80% of the season so that aint clear. I think you may get a pass on Pickens for the same reason I gave myself a pass on Parsons. Parson's had a lot of red flags due to character issues. Some of them may have been cleared, maybe all of them, but at the time the stink of that definitely played a role in him dropping to the cowboys. He was supposed to go higher than that after that college season. Pickens was the same but two things hurt him terribly: #1 he had a terrible injury in early '21 spring practices and then #2 he had lots of character red flags as well (fighting teammates, some other stuff apparently). What made me hit on him (I took him in every rookie draft I was in after the first 5 WR's were off the board (London, Wright, Olave, Williamson, and Burks) as the simple fact that I knew that he was genuinely considered a top 2-3 WR in this class before the injury during spring practices. He was expected to go very high, maybe top 2. That is a guy I target. 

 

I'm not surprised he's good at all, but the character flags are real concerns. He wouldn't be the first guy that went to the steelers with character concerns, blew up, and then went straight into the toilet later due to lingering mental make up issues (Martavis Bryant really sticks out as an example but not the only one). We'll see. If you didn't like the prospect for football reasons, that is kinda odd to me. He was a stud in college when healthy period, if he was healthy, he was gonna ball in the NFL so long as his character/mental make up issues didn't wreck him and Pittsburgh seems to be a good place for guys like this to land. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

Wright gets almost no hype.  Don't love him but I like him.  In the 2nd-3rd round range I'd like him 

 

 

I

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

 

It's not that Mayer is more likely to bust because he's a TE with first round pedigree, you just have to make that the fit is good scheme vs skill set, and hope that he can stay healthy.

 

Great point about health.  It's a really tough to spot to stay healthy.

 

Jay Gruden in his podcasts though goes on and on about the value of a good TE as to how it can open an offense and what Jordan Reed did underneath to open up the offense for the Wrs.  I also recall we had a good record when Reed played relatively speaking and an abysmal record when he didn't play for a spell.

 

But durability isn't easy at that spot. 

Edited January 24, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, Chump Bailey said:

A TE that is growing on me is Purdue's Payne Durham. @Skinsinparadise already ahead of me no surprise

 

Really solid. Y-TE.  Well rounded.  Nice size.  Red zone target -- 8 TDs.

 

They use him in line and in the backfield as a blocker.   Decent blocker IMO, not killer good like D. Washington but good enough.   

 

Better receiver and better YAC guy than Bates.  Bates IMO is the better blocker.  In the 5th round range, I'd be good with him.   Solid IMO but not killer.

 

 

https://www.si.com/college/purdue/football/purdue-football-payne-durham-looks-to-leave-behind-legacy-that-goes-beyond-play-on-the-field

Durham is touted by both teammates and coaches as one of the most upstanding leaders for the Boilermakers. Other players turn to his voice and follow his example. Throughout the 2022 season, he's taken that responsibility and run with it. 

 

"Payne really learned a lot as a young guy from those two and kind of took it to another level," Purdue tight ends coach Ryan Wallace said. "I mean, he's been kind of the straw that stirs the drink a little bit with Aiden [O'Connell] and some of the other seniors on offense.

"He's done a tremendous job with that, especially with the young guys, and he's so relatable for a lot of people on our team."

 

..."I can't commend him enough for how hard he's worked to put himself in position to where he is now," Wallace said. "When you come in playing five months of high school football, playing lacrosse, we spent six months teaching him not to run like he's carrying a stick."

 

He'll look to follow in the footsteps of Hopkins, who was drafted in the fourth round of the 2020 NFL Draft by the Los Angeles Rams and was part of the team's victory in Super Bowl LVI, catching four passes for 47 yards. 

Durham has proven he has the skill set and work ethic to play at the professional level, too.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[RWJ]

26 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Really solid. Y-TE.  Well rounded.  Nice size.  Red zone target -- 8 TDs.

 

They use him in line and in the backfield as a blocker.   Decent blocker IMO, not killer good like D. Washington but good enough.   

 

Better receiver and better YAC guy than Bates.  Bates IMO is the better blocker.  In the 5th round range, I'd be good with him.   Solid IMO but not killer.

 

 

https://www.si.com/college/purdue/football/purdue-football-payne-durham-looks-to-leave-behind-legacy-that-goes-beyond-play-on-the-field

Durham is touted by both teammates and coaches as one of the most upstanding leaders for the Boilermakers. Other players turn to his voice and follow his example. Throughout the 2022 season, he's taken that responsibility and run with it. 

 

"Payne really learned a lot as a young guy from those two and kind of took it to another level," Purdue tight ends coach Ryan Wallace said. "I mean, he's been kind of the straw that stirs the drink a little bit with Aiden [O'Connell] and some of the other seniors on offense.

"He's done a tremendous job with that, especially with the young guys, and he's so relatable for a lot of people on our team."

 

..."I can't commend him enough for how hard he's worked to put himself in position to where he is now," Wallace said. "When you come in playing five months of high school football, playing lacrosse, we spent six months teaching him not to run like he's carrying a stick."

 

He'll look to follow in the footsteps of Hopkins, who was drafted in the fourth round of the 2020 NFL Draft by the Los Angeles Rams and was part of the team's victory in Super Bowl LVI, catching four passes for 47 yards. 

Durham has proven he has the skill set and work ethic to play at the professional level, too.

 

 

 

 

 

 

What's up with PFF's Mock Draft Sim?  They don't even list him on their list of TEs!  Wow!  

[Skinsinparadise]

Crap started watching Spann-Ford but then caught alas he decided to forgo the draft and come out in 2024.

 

He is the same size as Darnell Washington.  Watched two games of his and then watched the highlights.

 

Blocks out of the backfield and in line.  Has some fun people moving-highlight attitude type blocks which i am a sucker for.  He is very consistent as both a pass blocker and run blocker

 

90 grade from PFF.  Good run blocker.  Good contested catch guy.    

 

 

 

 

 

 

9 minutes ago, RWJ said:

What's up with PFF's Mock Draft Sim?  They don't even list him on their list of TEs!  Wow!  

 

Yeah PFF doesn't list him.  in that same type of genre is Sam Laporta who I know is on PFF's radar.  Another dude who IMO is solid and all arond TE, jack of all trades but master of none IMO. Not a bad blocker IMO but IMO needs to get better, right now he is better receiver than blocker.   He has the build though of a Y-TE.   In the mid rounds, I'd be cool with it. 

 

 

s 

 

 

Edited January 24, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[RWJ]

@Skinsinparadise Durham has can catch the ball too! 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

9 minutes ago, RWJ said:

@Skinsinparadise Durham has can catch the ball too! 

 

 

 

I like Durham but i am not blown away by him.   But in the mid rounds, good pick IMO.  The problem I have perhaps is I rewatched some Darnell Washington this weekend and that dude is such a freak athlete that when I watch the more traditional Y-TE types who aren't freak athletes like someone like Durham who have stiff hips, i don't get as excited.   But in the mid round range I'd be jazzed.

Edited January 24, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

We don’t need another “flyer” tight end. To me it’s Darnell Washington or Michael Mayer or bust.

[RWJ]

25 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I like Durham but i am not blown away by him.   But in the mid rounds, good pick IMO.  The problem I have perhaps is I rewatched some Darnell Washington this weekend and that dude is such a freak athlete that when I watch the more traditional Y-TE types who aren't freak athletes like someone like Durham who have stiff hips, i don't get as excited.   But in the mid round range I'd be jazzed.

Going to post my PFF mock that I am most happy with.  Two trades.  Not unrealistic with the two trades but it covers all the areas of weakness. Wypler, I transition to OG.  I drafted Spann-Ford a bit early but wanted to get him because he's a great blocker and can catch the ball well and run with it too.  I really like Haener from Fresno St. not thinking I could get him in the 5th.  Both LBs I love, especially Henley from Washington St. and then Henry T. from Ala. in the 5th.   

[method man]

41 minutes ago, KDawg said:

We don’t need another “flyer” tight end. To me it’s Darnell Washington or Michael Mayer or bust.

 

Agreed. We have 3 guys who would be TE2s on other teams. You already have a Y and 2 Fs and can really play with the versatility of the existing group - I'd be fine with another Y but that Y has to be a day 1 TE1

[Chump Bailey]

3 hours ago, skinny21 said:

Speaking of value…

Curious about people’s take, philosophically, on how to handle a draft that’s deep at a position of need (as corner seems to be).  Take a first rounder, take a 1st rounder and then another later, or address another position knowing you’ve got a chance at a high value player (corner) later?  

 

 

I guess it all boils down to personal rankings. I think I would tend to hold off at a position of need if the class were a deep one and try and fill another position and then circle back later depending on my grades of course. If I were a GM, I'd be trying my hardest to acquire as many picks as possible in between rounds 4-6 depending on the environment at the time and the class. That's where the most value is IMO and a great place to start shopping for building a foundation. My perspective is that the parity level is pretty close all things considered amongst the upper echelon of prospects. I know I evoke the generational type of player label on occasion as the case with Bijan Robinson, but that is a rarity for me and I now find myself backpedaling a bit on that. There are some I am willing to go after and hard, but those cats are rare for me. Now, the current LG for Ohio State Donovan Jackson is one of those cats for me right now. I'd be moving mountains to position myself to land him next draft. I'm probably about there with Marvin Harrison Jr. too.

Edited January 24, 2023 by Chump Bailey