2023 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Warhead36]

1 hour ago, COWBOY-KILLA- said:

My biggest concern for Mayer in the first is his speed, agility, and overall athletic ability.  If he were more lean and fluid like Kelce, I'd feel better about him.

My concern is he turns too lumbering and slow as he matures body wise. He can still be really effective even if he's slower and lumbering.

 I'm just thinking out loud.  Maybe the guys who know him well can speak to this concern, but its what I think when I see him play.  

 

How will this look in 3-5 years?

Would love to give Howell a security blanket, is he the right one for the first round? 

Is he Gronk or is he Kyle Rudolph?

 

Well noone is Gronk. Gronk was like the Sean Taylor(RIP) of TEs. As big as a truck but with the gracefulness of a gazelle. Dude was a true marvel on the football field. 

[KDawg]

7 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

Quick & Dirty OT Top 10 because damn, so many prospects and only so much time to glean from what we have access to.

 

1. Paris Johnson Jr., Ohio State

2. Blake Freeland, BYU (elite wingspan)

3. Darnell Wright, Tennessee (Silverback 2.0 for me)

4. Dawand Jones, Ohio State (impressive feet for a guy that big)

5. Anton Harrison, Oklahoma (good feet, hands need work, needs to work on strength)

6. Matthew Bergeron, Syracuse (underrated player)

7. Broderick Jones, Georgia (good feet, questionable hands, poor technique, bending etc.)

8. Jaelyn Duncan, Maryland (good feet, needs to get stronger)

9. Peter Skoronski, Northwestern (decent tape vs. Zach Harrison he is capable but also very bad tape too, needs a lot work IMO and I think these Northwestern OT's are being overrated to a good extent)

10. A tie between Tyler Steen, Alabama (underrated player) & Trevor Reid, Louisville (underrated player) 

 

You’re a lot higher on Freeland than I am. Lower on Bergeron. A lot lower on Jones than I am. You are MUCH higher than me on Jaelyn Duncan. But I have to watch more of him. We’re close on Skoronski.

[Chump Bailey]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

You’re a lot higher on Freeland than I am. Lower on Bergeron. A lot lower on Jones than I am. You are MUCH higher than me on Jaelyn Duncan. But I have to watch more of him. We’re close on Skoronski.

 

I'm not feeling all that comfortable except for Darnell Wright TBH. Cody Mauch just missed the list. I do like Broderick Jones but to me lot's of technique stuff that can be coached up I'm sure.

[Skinsinparadise]

15 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

Quick & Dirty OT Top 10 because damn, so many prospects and only so much time to glean from what we have access to.

 

1. Paris Johnson Jr., Ohio State

2. Blake Freeland, BYU (elite wingspan)

3. Darnell Wright, Tennessee (Silverback 2.0 for me)

4. Dawand Jones, Ohio State (impressive feet for a guy that big)

5. Anton Harrison, Oklahoma (good feet, hands need work, needs to work on strength)

6. Matthew Bergeron, Syracuse (underrated player)

7. Broderick Jones, Georgia (good feet, questionable hands, poor technique, bending etc.)

8. Jaelyn Duncan, Maryland (good feet, needs to get stronger)

9. Peter Skoronski, Northwestern (decent tape vs. Zach Harrison he is capable but also very bad tape too, needs a lot work IMO and I think these Northwestern OT's are being overrated to a good extent)

10. A tie between Tyler Steen, Alabama (underrated player) & Trevor Reid, Louisville (underrated player) 

 

 

Haven't watched Skoronski yet or Reid so I'll keep them out.

 

1. Paris Johnson

2. Broderick Jones

3, 4, 5.  Darnell Wright -- Bergeron -- Harrison a tie.  I'll wait for the combine to seperate them.

6. Dawand Jones

7.  Blake Freeland

8. Duncan

9.  Tyler Steen

 

I like Mauch a lot as a guard not as a tackle.

Edited January 24, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

3 of the 4 teams left have an elite TE.

 

https://athlonsports.com/nfl/tight-end-nfls-new-glamour-position

 

“Teams are using tight ends differently,” an NFL executive says. “They are doing a better job of looking at the tight end position, and if they have an explosive player, figuring out how to get him the ball.

“Forget the labels. It’s about playmakers.”

Brian Schottenheimer isn’t picking on D.J. Swearinger. He’s just pointing out that if the 5'10", 205-pound Saints safety were trying to cover the 6'4", 250-pound Kittle, he might have some trouble.

“That’s one of the best matchups [the Niners] could see on game day,” the Seattle offensive coordinator says.

There are several situations like that on every Sunday throughout an NFL season. Defenses devote so much attention to the big swingers on the outside that they often end up trying to stop tight ends like Kittle with smaller safeties or slower linebackers. Teams try to find out what the tight end can do and then how best to use him. 

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

33 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Well noone is Gronk. Gronk was like the Sean Taylor(RIP) of TEs. As big as a truck but with the gracefulness of a gazelle. Dude was a true marvel on the football field. 

Looks like he's been Baby Gronk almost his entire career.  I know he didn't ask for it but unfortunately its who he has been compared to, not super fair I guess..

 

 

https://fansided.com/2021/09/05/notre-dame-football-michael-mayer-baby-gronk/

https://chicago.suntimes.com/2021/5/8/22422456/baby-gronk-michael-mayer-has-grown-up-in-a-hurry-tight-end-notre-dame-irish 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35204232/notre-dame-te-michael-mayer-declaring-nfl-draft-skipping-bowl

[Warhead36]

Yeah I've warmed up to the idea of taking Mayer now for the force multiplier effect of comboing a potential elite TE with a top notch WR trio and above average RB duo. 

 

When you stack talent on top of that talent, you gain exponential growth. Look at McLaurin. He had his best season playing alongside Dotson and a healthy Samuel.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

Dane Brugler does not care much for this Center class. "It is an underwhelming center class this year, without any prospects considered locks to land in the top 100 picks."

[Warhead36]

1 hour ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

Dane Brugler does not care much for this Center class. "It is an underwhelming center class this year, without any prospects considered locks to land in the top 100 picks."

My guess is we bring Roullier and Larsen back and bank on at least one of them staying healthy. I think our offseason OL acquisitions will be LG and RT along with depth. Leno is a fine LT and Cosmi will be penciled in as the RG.

[method man]

1 hour ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

Dane Brugler does not care much for this Center class. "It is an underwhelming center class this year, without any prospects considered locks to land in the top 100 picks."

 

I think the is a bit too harsh. There isn't an elite center prospect like Lindebaum last year but there are a lot of guys that will become average to above average starters. 

9 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

 

 

Otoh, the guys that made that deal w/regards to Hollywood are all fired are they not? 

 

Yes but it doesn't matter. Keim was a GM for 10 years in this league. He was never an elite GM but he was at least league average. This wasn't Dan and Vinny making that trade

[method man]

9 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I don't give a rats behind that S. Keim, who was canned recently and not known for being the sharpest tool in the shed overpaid in a trade for Hollywood Brown.  Yes that's arbitrary.  Do I think teams would take Hollywood Brown over Hockenson?  Heck no. 

 

I think we got a lot of strawmen arguments going back and forth, I don't think its intentional but its happening by osmosis in the process of making points.  

 

The argument is not a debate about whether

A.  TE is not a premium position

B.  Takes longer to develop or not

C.  It's a good position to get later in the draft

 

I've not only agreed with those arguments.  I've put an encylopedia's worth of info about all of those points on these threads over years.  Tight end is the one spot I typically go deep in as far anaylsis as much as anyone here.  Sometimes I go 25 deep.  Yes its not a premium spot.  Yes you often can find one later.  Yes it takes longer to develop.  I've written tomes for years about all of that.

 

The argument is a debate over this.

A.  The idea of being rigid about drafting a position or not based on other players as opposed to the player at hand that you are evaluating

B.  The idea that later in the draft is better than the first round -- while true to an extent and its a point like i said I've made, I think is hyperbole when you factor the bigger pool of players post first round so there is more room to hit on a player.  It's true but not to the extent I once thought.  There is more nuance to it than I gave it credit for.

C.  Taking a star at a nonpremium spot >>> the 4th best player at a premium spot in some drafts

 

 

Keim was a GM for 10 seasons and finished with a 500 record and multiple double digit win seasons. He was a league average GM and maligning him is dishonest. You have nothing to back up your point on whether teams would generally take Hockensen over Hollywood. Again, what we do know is that a guy on the Hollywood tier like DJ Moore is making over $20M a year and a guy on the Hockensen tier like Njoku (outside Kelce/Andrews/Goedert/Kittle) is making $14M a year

 

A In every industry, the past and history is a tool that can be used to evaluate the future. Industries change so relying entirely on history is dangerous but it is valuable. Ultimately statistical models depend on historic datapoints to drive go forward predictions

 

B This point is position dependent and you are playing the probabilities. For every position, except maybe kicker, the hit rate on whether a player is a strong starter or not is higher, the higher you draft. The point being made is if the y axis were probability of success and the x axis were the round, the curve is arguably much flatter on a relative basis for TEs vs QBs, OTs, EDGEs and WRs. 

 

C is super arbitrary comparing a star at a nonpremium spot to the 4th best player at a premium spot. To make it relevant to this draft, if Mayer, Broderick Jones (OT3) and one of Gonzalez, Witherspoon and Porter Jr is there, who do you take? 

 

Separately, I also strongly feel that a lot of the Tier 2 / Tier 3 TEs are system TEs. More than a lot of other positions, we have seen so many of the guys in this tier bust when switching teams (Henry, Jonnu Smith, Uzomah and Hooper to name a few) and a bunch of other guys come out of nowhere and bloom (Thomas, Waller, Conklin, etc). I think that also helps to explain why first round TEs have generally been more disappointing in terms of performing to expectations vs say receivers in recent years. Given the upcoming staff changes coming over the next few years, this presents another risk to drafting a first round TE this year. The risk is there with CBs (man vs zone schemes) and OLs (based on blocking scheme) but I feel TEs are generally impacted more as first round CBs generally have the length/athleticism to play man and the smarts to play zone and first round OLs, especially the guys taken top 16, tend to have both strength and power to succeed in different schemes (it is the guys at both positions taken late 1st, round 2 and beyond that tend to be more one dimensional)

 

 

Edited January 25, 2023 by method man

[Skinsinparadise]

Kiper's new mock

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/draft2023/insider/story/_/id/35514084/2023-nfl-mock-draft-mel-kiper-first-round-predictions-31-picks-best-team-fits-top-prospects

 

10. Philadelphia Eagles (via NO)

Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt

The Eagles, one of the NFL's four best teams, gained this first-rounder from New Orleans last year, and now they have a chance to add a premium prospect to their loaded roster. They don't have many current needs, but they do have several decisions to make in free agency, including whether to bring back defensive linemen Fletcher Cox, Robert Quinn, Brandon Graham and Javon Hargrave. Let's use this pick to help them get younger.

Kancey's 2022 tape is extremely impressive, and I moved him way up my Big Board. He wreaked havoc the past two seasons, racking up 13.5 sacks when lined up as a defensive tackle, the most in the country. At 6-foot, 280 pounds, he's undersized, but so was former Pitt tackle Aaron Donald. (To be clear, he's not Donald, but he's still pretty good.) We know Philadelphia general manager Howie Roseman invests heavily in the D-line, and Kancey would fit next to 2022 first-rounder Jordan Davis.

---

11. Tennessee Titans

Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State

The Tennessee offense was a mess this season, which resulted in the firing of coordinator Todd Downing. General manager Jon Robinson also was let go, and you have to think Robinson's inability to get the offensive line up to par contributed to it. Longtime left tackle Taylor Lewan has played just 20 games over the past three seasons and could be an offseason cap casualty. There might be an opening on the left side. Johnson played guard for the Buckeyes in 2021 but moved to left tackle in 2022, and he was tremendous. He will be a plug-and-play starter in the top 15 picks.

---

12. Houston Texans (via CLE)

Lukas Van Ness, DL, Iowa

I gave the Texans their quarterback of the future with the No. 2 pick, and general manager Nick Caserio should go with the best prospect on his board with this selection, which was acquired in the Deshaun Watson trade. Don't get picky and try to plug a hole -- this roster has to improve in several spots. Van Ness is a versatile and productive defender who made an impact at end and tackle for the Hawkeyes, even as he never actually started a game. He had 13.5 sacks over the past two seasons, 9.5 from the interior and four from the edge. NFL teams covet that sort of positional flexibility. He would get lots of early snaps for Houston.

---

13. New York Jets

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

I thought about an offensive lineman here, but let's instead reunite my top-ranked receiver in this class with my top-ranked receiver in the 2022 class. The Jets picked Garrett Wilson at No. 10 last April, and he had 83 catches for 1,103 yards as a rookie. But for the Buckeyes in 2021, it was his teammate Smith-Njigba who was their top wideout, as he put up 1,606 yards, doing damage mostly out of the slot. After an injury-plagued 2022 in which he caught just five passes, however, there are big questions about his health -- he had a nagging hamstring injury -- headed into the draft.

I'm a big fan of Smith-Njigba, and I think he could be a star in the right situation. New York likely will have a new starting quarterback in 2023, and that passer will have to get support around him. This offense has a chance to be much improved. The Jets had a stellar draft last year; Smith-Njigba would be a great start for this one. And yes, I know, this makes back-to-back top-15 picks on receivers for the Jets, but Smith-Njigba is worth it because of what he and Wilson can do together.

---

14. New England Patriots

Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

Will the Patriots bring back free-agent corner Jonathan Jones? That could determine what Bill Belichick & Co. do here, because this is a strong cornerback class in the back half of Round 1. There could be a run on defensive backs in the 20s. Witherspoon is my top-ranked corner, a long and physical player who shut down an entire side of the field for the Fighting Illini. He also is not afraid to stick his head in and make a tackle.

Outside of corner, New England could target offensive line or wide receiver with this pick to try to support quarterback Mac Jones, who struggled in Year 2.

---

15. Green Bay Packers

Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

Why not a tight end here -- regardless of whether Aaron Rodgers is back as the quarterback? Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis are free agents, and this is a major hole on the roster. The tight end class is really good this year, with Mayer atop my board. He is a complete player who put up 809 yards and 67 catches with nine touchdowns in 2022. He can stretch the middle of the field and run past linebackers on seam routes. The only downside is that he doesn't have super-long arms, but he's ahead of the game as a pass-catcher. Green Bay could also use younger talent in the front seven.

---

16. Washington Commanders

Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

Here's yet another team with quarterback issues, as the Commanders traded for Carson Wentz last offseason (which cost them their third-rounder this year) but turned back to Taylor Heinicke down the stretch. Neither is likely to be their Week 1 starter; I wonder if they will be players in the veteran-signal-caller market and bring in someone to compete with rookie Sam Howell. No matter who is playing quarterback, though, they have to improve along the offensive line. Jones is a 310-pound mauler who didn't allow a single sack as the Bulldogs' left tackle in 2022. I wouldn't be shocked if he went in the top 10.

---

17. Pittsburgh Steelers

Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

Like father, like son in Pittsburgh? The Steelers drafted linebacker Joey Porter in the third round in 1999, and they have a need for his son in 2023. Porter is an aggressive 6-foot-2 corner who was a three-year starter for the Nittany Lions. He picked off just one pass in his career, but he had 11 pass breakups in 2022, so he gets his hands on the football when it's headed in his direction. The Steelers likely will be hoping one of the top offensive tackles drops to them, and they could also target a defensive tackle.

---

18. Detroit Lions

Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

Remember when I mentioned earlier that the Lions have cornerback issues? Well, hopefully at least Lions fans were reading. Jeff Okudah flashed the talent that made him the No. 3 overall pick in 2020, but he was still inconsistent, and there's no surefire starter on the other side of the field. Gonzalez was a lockdown defender at Colorado before transferring to Oregon last year, where he picked off four passes and improved every week. He's going to test really well at the combine in March too. This pick makes too much sense for a Detroit defense that badly needs an infusion of young talent in the secondary.

 

 

[KDawg]

10 hours ago, method man said:

 

 

C is super arbitrary comparing a star at a nonpremium spot to the 4th best player at a premium spot. To make it relevant to this draft, if Mayer, Broderick Jones (OT3) and one of Gonzalez, Witherspoon and Porter Jr is there, who do you take? 

 

 

 

 

Not to me, but in that case: I don't take anyone. I do what I can to trade back. Mayer and the corners are better than OT3. But OT3 may be a real option, but not at 16. Trade back to the 20s if possible and see what's on the board. If I have to choose at 16 I take Witherspoon. BPA. 

 

If Mayer/Jones are still there, I probably need to pull the trigger.

[Skinsinparadise]

11 hours ago, method man said:

 

Keim was a GM for 10 seasons and finished with a 500 record and multiple double digit win seasons. He was a league average GM and maligning him is dishonest. You have nothing to back up your point

 

 

 

OK, so I am dishonest and I got nothing to back up my point.   

 

Put me on ignore then, and lets not waste our time debating.   No hard feelings. 

 

On this thread in particular, I come here to debate football.  I don't expect everyone to agree.  There have been some heated debates here over the years and they can be fun and interesting.  And I am sure we all annoy each other at times.  

 

Once though I got a little personal with it on this thread, about 5 years ago, when I got pissed debating with a long time poster who has been gone for years.  I've regretted it and apologized to him.  So I made a vow to myself to try not to cross any lines on this thread where the testiness starts feeling personal -- so I try to walk away once it feels even teetering on that edge.  So in that spirit, you got the last word.  On other threads, I am more likely to engage no matter how testy it gets but on this one I try to be more conservative.

Edited January 25, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

27 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Not to me, but in that case: I don't take anyone. I do what I can to trade back. Mayer and the corners are better than OT3. But OT3 may be a real option, but not at 16. Trade back to the 20s if possible and see what's on the board. If I have to choose at 16 I take Witherspoon. BPA. 

 

If Mayer/Jones are still there, I probably need to pull the trigger.

 

Yeah the more I digest, the more i love the idea of trading down.  Granted i feel that way in many drafts albiet not all of the trade downs have worked out.  But last year looked to be a good move on that front.

 

The question for me is what player would be the trade bait for a team to move up for? 

Edited January 25, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[HigSkin]

Kiper's 1-10 for those who don't have insider.

 

 

[KDawg]

My guy Kancey is catching on. Or maybe he always was and I just stay the hell away from draft media so much that I didn’t know.

[Warhead36]

I thought I was the only one that liked Stroud over Young.

[Skinsinparadise]

15 minutes ago, KDawg said:

My guy Kancey is catching on. Or maybe he always was and I just stay the hell away from draft media so much that I didn’t know.

 

Based on what I recall Kiper really changed up his mock and big board from his previous mocks based on my memory but I am too lazy to go back and compare

 

2 tight ends in the mock.  3 in his top 25

 

5 CBs in the first and Forbes is one of them.  Witherpoon in his top 10 on the big board.

 

Zay Flowers in the first and he's high on the top WRs. 

 

2 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I thought I was the only one that liked Stroud over Young.

 

He has his own rankings and his mocks he says is based on what he thinks happens.

 

His own has Levis #1, Young #2, Stroud #3.

 

But to your point if he thinks Stroud goes first, he's likely hearing some teams like him more. 

Edited January 25, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Koolblue13]

Mayer isn't getting past NE or GB. I think a trade back will be there for us if only one of Spoon, Gonz or Porter are there.

[Skinsinparadise]

8 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Mayer isn't getting past NE or GB. I think a trade back will be there for us if only one of Spoon, Gonz or Porter are there.

 

Good point, Mayer screams Belichick who loves using the TE spot as a chess piece.   And a Y-TE like Mayer is more of a chess piece.  I think 50-50 he's there though at 16 mainly because I don't think Mayer blows up the combine.  Also, Washington, Musgrave, Kincaid are above average TE prospects, too so wonder if that keeps Mayer in play.  But will see. 

 

I do agree perception wise that Witherspoon, Porter, Gonzalez are the three top CBs.  And maybe similar to last year where the perception was London, Wilson, Olave (Williams to some extent too but the injury made it more of a wildcard) are the top 3 and then there is a drop off.  Could be the same vibe for CBs and some team wants one of those three.

 

I haven't watched the next tier of CBs yet to form my own opinion.  I did watch the top 3.   But I am gathering the perception is the next group while still being good aren't as good:  Banks, Cam Smith, Ringo, Forbes. 

Edited January 25, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

Normally the big boards start shifting like crazy right around Senior Bowl week when the journalists get to talk easily with all the leagues scouts and front office folk.

 

Maybe this is the beginning of that?

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

Normally the big boards start shifting like crazy right around Senior Bowl week when the journalists get to talk easily with all the leagues scouts and front office folk.

 

Maybe this is the beginning of that?

 

Could be.  I just noticed more so looking at Mel's player rankings there are some dudes I don't recall being there before. 

[Koolblue13]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Good point, Mayer screams Belichick who loves using the TE spot as a chess piece.   And a Y-TE like Mayer is more of a chess piece.  I think 50-50 he's there though at 16 mainly because I don't think Mayer blows up the combine.  Also, Washington, Musgrave, Kincaid are above average TE prospects, too so wonder if that keeps Mayer in play.  But will see. 

 

I do agree perception wise that Witherspoon, Porter, Gonzalez are the three top CBs.  And maybe similar to last year where the perception was London, Wilson, Olave (Williams to some extent too but the injury made it more of a wildcard) are the top 3 and then there is a drop off.  Could be the same vibe for CBs and some team wants one of those three.

 

I haven't watched the next tier of CBs yet to form my own opinion.  I did watch the top 3.   But I am gathering the perception is the next group while still being good aren't as good:  Banks, Cam Smith, Ringo, Forbes. 

Combine will be big for sure. I'm more than happy with that second tier of CB. I think we'll see them go higher than normal, because of the lack of depth at safety, LBer, IOL thaqt usually goes late first, early second though, so I think CB needs to be hit early.

 

Washington I can't move past the Mercedes Lewis comparison. Musgrave and Kincad both have a shot at being our next Move TE in the 3rd.

 

Mayer is the only guy I'm interested in the 1rst and it's not that close, unless we move back into the 20s.

[Skinsinparadise]

4 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Combine will be big for sure. I'm more than happy with that second tier of CB. I think we'll see them go higher than normal, because of the lack of depth at safety, LBer, IOL thaqt usually goes late first, early second though, so I think CB needs to be hit early.

 

Washington I can't move past the Mercedes Lewis comparison. Musgrave and Kincad both have a shot at being our next Move TE in the 3rd.

 

Mayer is the only guy I'm interested in the 1rst and it's not that close, unless we move back into the 20s.

 

Yeah Mayer is a true Y and if you are looking for a safe pick at TE IMO he's that dude. 

 

Some say Musgrave can be a good Y because of his size but IMO he's just ok as a blocker at best.    Washington IMO is even a better blocker than Mayer, and is a true Y, but is a work in progress as a receiver.  Kincaid is a pure F-TE.

 

The combine may elevate both Musgrave and Washington in particular.

 

In the 2nd round range, I'd love Washington.  I can't recall watching a TE who can block on the 2nd level like him -- with that kind of speed and power.  That kind of blocking helps facilitate explosive plays.  And he's getting better as a receiver too. 

 

I noticed some of the draft media has Musgrave as the #2 TE, some have Kincaid not as many have Washington.  For me I think its Washington but I'll wait for the combine.