2023 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Going Commando]

Some of my most glaring misses:

 

- I had Quay Walker way too low

- Had Travon Walker too low

- Had Garrett Wilson too low

- Had Christian Watson too low

- Had Dax Hill too high

- Had Jordan Davis too high

- Had Malik Willis way too high

- Me everyone else in the world had Tariq Woolen way too low.  But to my credit, I did like him as a day three lotto ticket.

- Was way too low on George Pickens.  I can already tell this is going to end up being my worst miss from last year.  By far.  This kid is going to be a star and could very well be the best receiver from last year's class.

 

Pittsburgh is just a factory for developing knuckleheaded receivers into stars.  Dudes who don't thrive anywhere else they go, but just dominate in Pittsburgh.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

I know someone else posted this article earlier, but can't remember if it was in this thread: https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/insider/story/_/id/35463411/ranking-nfl-rookie-classes-2022-teams-most-production-value-star-players

 

The Commanders bit:
 

 

That's a pretty bad ranking, and I'm wondering how we can have fewer points than a couple of the mediocre looking classes ranked ahead of us in the 20s.  Unfortunately, we didn't get a lot of rookie year impact compared to the top classes in the league.  But I think there is some reason for optimism due to Jahan being graded second among rookie WRs behind Olave according to their system, and Howell is going to get a chance to start next season and explode the impact of our class.

 

 

 

I mentioned this when someone else posted the same thing.  Aaron the dude from Football Outsiders who did that ranking, hates this team.  And that's not hyperbole, he craps on the team in his radio segments for years.  The Football Outsiders season preview, which I buy every year, looks at every team with analytics.  When it comes to the Washington section, he just about always has a few paragraphs crapping on this team before launching into the numbers. 

 

I am guessing its based on Dan Snyer reading between the lines.  The irony is he's fairly dispassionate when talking about other teams.  His passion seems to be squarely about crapping on this team and how embarassing they are to the NFL and he's been on that track for a long time. 

Edited January 22, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

I think what hurts us in those rankings is that we got essentially no production from our 2nd round pick which is often a high value producer if you get the pick right. 

 

Then you factor in Dotson missing a few games and being a WR on what ended up being a run first team hurting his overall #s, but the guy easily passes the eye test. As does Robinson, who's year was messed up with the gun shot and then splitting carries with Gibson. 

[Skinsinparadise]

8 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I think what hurts us in those rankings is that we got essentially no production from our 2nd round pick which is often a high value producer if you get the pick right. 

 

Then you factor in Dotson missing a few games and being a WR on what ended up being a run first team hurting his overall #s, but the guy easily passes the eye test. As does Robinson, who's year was messed up with the gun shot and then splitting carries with Gibson. 

 

Maybe but I don't take anything from Aaron from Foorball Outsiders seriously when it comes to this team, the dude who ranked them for ESPN.  I subscribe to just about everything and listen to just about everything and from my observation I don't think there is a dude on the planet who hates this team more than him.  It's over the top and wild.

Edited January 22, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[DWinzit]

11 hours ago, Going Commando said:

Some of my most glaring misses:

- Had Christian Watson too low

- Had Dax Hill too high

Last week I was reflecting on the past draft. These were my two biggest standout misses. Hill was my guy with Pitre just behind him. Not sure what the heck happened. I could see him having a much improved 2023

I had a hard time buying into Watson and the second half of the season he proved himself as a stud.  

[Koolblue13]

I wanted to draft Pitre/Cine or LLoyd and not a WR in the first, becvause we could grab Watson in the second.

[Koolblue13]

I wanted to see who I was hoping to pick last year and the draft day thread is a hoot. I had Quay Walker as LB2 I think behind Lloyd

. 

Edited January 22, 2023 by Koolblue13

[Riggo#44]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Maybe but I don't take anything from Aaron from Foorball Outsiders seriously when it comes to this team, the dude who ranked them for ESPN.  I subscribe to just about everything and listen to just about everything and from my observation I don't think there is a dude on the planet who hates this team more than him.  It's over the top and wild.

I've noticed a lot of these types of analysts across several sports have severe confirmation bias. They have a preconceived notion of what they see, and then look to be validated, rather than accurate.

[Koolblue13]

On 4/28/2022 at 9:37 PM, Skinsinparadise said:

Hamilton, Lloyd, Zion Johnson 

I like Dotson and Watson but I think they can trade down a little more and get one of them 

 

On 4/28/2022 at 9:33 PM, KDawg said:

Dotson is the only receiver in range.

 

I am now heavy on the Lloyd train. He’d be the biggest win for us in this scenario. 

 

On 4/28/2022 at 9:30 PM, Warhead36 said:

All I'll say is:

 

We just totally outplayed ourselves. We're effed.

 

On 4/28/2022 at 9:20 PM, clskinsfan said:

Hill, Watson.. And so many others....Love this trade. 

 

On 4/28/2022 at 10:34 PM, PokerPacker said:

Someone convince me that Quay Walker wasn't a reach.

 

On 4/28/2022 at 10:36 PM, GhostofSparta said:

Quay Walker is the best MLB selected in the first round so far.

 

On 4/28/2022 at 10:41 PM, Conn said:

 

Hurts is terrible

 

On 4/28/2022 at 10:43 PM, clskinsfan said:

Hurts is a clown show. 

 

On 4/28/2022 at 10:53 PM, Conn said:

lol Linderbaum is such a classic Ravens pick we're gonna have to endure so many stevemcqueen paragraphs about good organizations staying good and making smart moves

 

On 4/28/2022 at 10:59 PM, Going Commando said:

 

I'm almost afraid to jinx it, but I have a feeling that Nakobe Dean is going to be there.  I would love to get him at 47 and Howell in the 3rd.  That's an epic draft haul.

I wish we had the Packers first two picks last year. It's what I would have done. 

 

If we had drafted Linderbaum we would have been in the playoffs IMO.

[KDawg]

Just now, Koolblue13 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I wish we had the Packers first two picks last year. It's what I would have done. 

 

If we had drafted Linderbaum we would have been in the playoffs IMO.

Ya. Seems consistent with my takes. Wanted a LB there (specifically Lloyd). But liked Dotson and not disappointed we got him.

[Koolblue13]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

Ya. Seems consistent with my takes. Wanted a LB there (specifically Lloyd). But liked Dotson and not disappointed we got him.

You had a post tagging steve and Sip saying something like "Relax everyone. When the three of us agree on a pick, it's probably a good one" 

[KDawg]

7 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

You had a post tagging steve and Sip saying something like "Relax everyone. When the three of us agree on a pick, it's probably a good one" 

 we never all agree on ****

[formerly4skins]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I don't think there is a dude on the planet who hates this team more than him.  It's over the top and wild.

 

PFT/Florio and Peter King are probably pretty close as far as producing content with the sole purpose of crapping on this team...though they're more talking-heads than analytics guys. 

[Warhead36]

I didn't have any issues with Dotson the player. My issue was that we traded down and lost out on the opportunity to draft a couple of blue chippers in Hamilton or Olave. Well both those guys look like future stars their rookie years, but Dotson looks like a real nice player too and we also got Robinson out of the deal so all in all the deal wasn't as bad as I thought. 

[Going Commando]

Lol, damn.  @Conn knows me better than I know myself.

 

Man, every so often I think I'm over Linderbaum and then some information comes out about him being good and the pain comes back fresh.  I hate to say it but I kind of wish he'd just been bad.  It also hasn't helped that Jason Kelce has been SO prevalent in the football zeitgeist this year, and he always makes me think of Linderbaum.  You can't watch an Eagles game without them mentioning how special and important he is at least four times.

 

Lloyd for some reason I can live without, although I do get a little wistful watching him because I get so many damn Jags games down here in Georgia.  And Davis and Dean I'm like meh because I can't stand UGA and we already seem to have good DTs and an ILB.  Maybe that will change in the future when they actually get to play.  But Linderbaum is the one that got away for me.

7 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I didn't have any issues with Dotson the player. My issue was that we traded down and lost out on the opportunity to draft a couple of blue chippers in Hamilton or Olave. Well both those guys look like future stars their rookie years, but Dotson looks like a real nice player too and we also got Robinson out of the deal so all in all the deal wasn't as bad as I thought. 

 

And Howell too.  Howell could be a winning mega millions ticket.

 

Maybe they don't pan out to much in the long run, and Olave ends up being a perennial Pro Bowler and we truly regret the trade down.  But right now I think there is still a good chance that the value of Dotson/Robinson/Howell > Olave.  It's at least an open question as so much is still up in the air right now.

[Koolblue13]

45 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I didn't have any issues with Dotson the player. My issue was that we traded down and lost out on the opportunity to draft a couple of blue chippers in Hamilton or Olave. Well both those guys look like future stars their rookie years, but Dotson looks like a real nice player too and we also got Robinson out of the deal so all in all the deal wasn't as bad as I thought. 

I'm still meh about Dotson. He's good and will have a solid career, so it's a good player to have picked.

 

Our trade back factored in makes it a home run if Howell pans out.

 

I'm mostly disappointed that we didn't trade back the second time and really load up on day two, because that draft was ****ing loaded.

[mhd24]

55 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I'm still meh about Dotson. He's good and will have a solid career, so it's a good player to have picked.

 

Our trade back factored in makes it a home run if Howell pans out.

 

I'm mostly disappointed that we didn't trade back the second time and really load up on day two, because that draft was ****ing loaded.

 

From the draft video, there were offers to trade down again, but I think they knew Dotson would be gone.  Dotson looks sick (especially in the red zone) out there.  He's assuredly no bust and is a good player in the league.  With Samuel likely gone after this year, we needed WR depth badly.  I have no issues with him as the pick.  

[Koolblue13]

3 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

 

From the draft video, there were offers to trade down again, but I think they knew Dotson would be gone.  Dotson looks sick (especially in the red zone) out there.  He's assuredly no bust and is a good player in the league.  With Samuel likely gone after this year, we needed WR depth badly.  I have no issues with him as the pick.  

It's a good pick for sure. Not trying to dump on him at all. 

 

Would have rather traded back again and gotten Watson or Pierce though.

[method man]

Olave was the Saints’ only legit target this year in the passing game w Thomas and Landry missing so much time and he had a better QB than the guys we had throwing to him in Dalton. I don’t think the gap between Olave and Dotson is big

[KDawg]

29 minutes ago, method man said:

Olave was the Saints’ only legit target this year in the passing game w Thomas and Landry missing so much time and he had a better QB than the guys we had throwing to him in Dalton. I don’t think the gap between Olave and Dotson is big

I don’t either. Dotson also was injured for a good portion and still tallied 7 TDs. Without looking I think that’s more than McLaurin has had in any single season. Though I think McLaurin had 7 his rookie year as well. 
 

Robinson was a major get for us. And Howell could be. I think looking back on that draft with what ifs could be dangerous. Nothing says those players look the same in DC.

 

Linderbaum would have been nice to have but I stick to my thoughts on him from then… we had no reason to believe that Roullier wasn’t going to be healthy after he recovered. Yes, he was hurt the year before… but we didn’t know this was going to be a bit of a trend after. If Roullier was healthy Linderbaum probably wouldn’t have even seen the field. I guess that’s a BPA thought process but would he have been considered the BPA where we picked? I wouldn’t have him as that, but he wouldn’t have been light years off, either.

[Riggo#44]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

If Roullier was healthy Linderbaum probably wouldn’t have even seen the field. I guess that’s a BPA thought process but would he have been considered the BPA where we picked?

 

I'm also of the mind that need can factor into BPA. If two players are rated similarly, and one fills a vital need--that would be a tie breaker.

[KDawg]

Just now, Riggo#44 said:

 

I'm also of the mind that need can factor into BPA. If two players are rated similarly, and one fills a vital need--that would be a tie breaker.

BPA always factors in need in my eyes. 
 

Linderbaum wouldn’t have been our guy there if the team thought Roullier was going to come back strong. He’d be riding the pine and the team wanted to win asap. 
 

If we allow ourselves to use hindsight we obviously should have found a way to get Linderbaum. But then do we get as much production out of our receivers to the tune of 7 TDs from Dotson? It’s a dangerous game to play.

[KDawg]

Went back and watched Brian Branch... Because I didn't watch him with corners because I don't really think of him as one.

 

And... it did nothing for me as far as thinking of him as a corner. That's not a knock on him. I think he'd be a good corner in the NFL... But his versatility IS his game. He can line up in the slot, outside, as a safety... He can range, he comes down hill, he can tackle. He can blitz. He can blow up OL. He can tackle. He's an absolute animal. He deserves every bit of praise he's been getting from the draftnik community but I see so many places listing him as a corner. As a pure corner he'd slot in around where I have Ringo... so CB5/6. But when you factor in his entire game he's far better than that. I think I'm going to qualify any "hybrid" type guys as safeties this year, just for ease of placement. So... I think Branch is going to wind up on my safety list.

 

Safeties.

 

Brandon Joseph. Eh. He is clearly a really good athlete. But he wasn't really in the middle of anything and he tackles kind of wild and reckless. Not all that high on him at the moment. 

 

Jordan Battle. I've liked him for a few years waiting for him to come out. I think he is safety position versatile. He can play free or strong. Good with his hands in run support. Bails well in over the top coverage assignments. His pursuit angles aren't as good as I'd hoped and he goes for big hits way too often in my eyes. Reports indicate he's a leader. And he's a scrappy guy that will react to a QBs eyes. 

 

Chris Smith II. He's a ballhawk, but I think he is afforded some opportunities because QBs are terrified of Georgia's entire defensive backfield. He is a pure center fielder who can react and move very quickly. I think he's a much better coverage guy than he is an alley filler in the run game. Doesn't have the same versatility as some of the other safety types in this draft... You're not going to be rolling this guy up in the box or playing in the slot very often. 

 

Rashad Torrence II. Let me start with what I believe his limitations/questions are for the NFL: He looks more like a corner (despite being 6-0, 205) than a safety and he takes bad angles in the run game. Having said that, the guy is an alley filling monster, a ballhawking ass kicker and a high football IQ big brain type. His feet and change of direction on film is unreal sometimes. He can plant on a dime and come back and absolutely de-cleat someone. He recognizes offensive plays, which means he does his homework. He is a guy that can play in the slot a little bit, too. So he can play that buffalo nickel type of role. He has tremendous scheme versatility. I think after Branch he's my favorite "safety" type. 

 

JL Skinner. I lied above. JL Skinner is my favorite safety type aside from Branch. Guy was productive as hell, reads and reacts, explosive athlete, will destroy people in open field, he is a walking screen killer, can cover slots and tight ends, he's huge (6-4 220), he's an intimidator who encourages more than a few alligator arm catch attempts. He's not fast, but he recognizes things well enough that it lets him react in time because of what look to be elite change of direction speed. This guy is a dude.

 

Ronnie Hickman. Thing that jumps out at you is his closing speed. Once he identifies who has the ball he's coming to get you. He can close virtually any gap. He's a bit handsy at times and I don't think he's really built for man coverage. Better off in zones. He isn't as versatile as many and, like Chris Smith, his value comes as a single high safety/cover 2 safety where he can react to the run game from a distance and close. I don't see him as a slot guy based on college film. 

 

Ji'ayir Brown. He is aggressive when the ball is in the air but gives a lot of cushion when it's not.  He is a good safety and understands game flow at the college level and his athleticism certainly helps. He is incredibly athletic. Can cover in man and zones. He's strong. Apparently he benches 370. He's also productive and consistent. In 2021 he had 73 tackles. In 2022 he had 74 tackles. He had 6 picks in 21. 4 in 22. He added 4.5 sacks this year and he can force fumbles. He's a very good player who is a bit underrated from what I've seen out there in the draftnik community. 

 

1. Brian Branch

2. JL Skinner

3. Rashad Torrence II

4. Ji'ayir Brown

5. Antonio Johnson (moved him from CB. I don't think he's a CB)

6. Jordan Battle

7. Brandon Joseph

8. Chris Smith II

9. Ronnie Hickman

 

 

[Warhead36]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

BPA always factors in need in my eyes. 
 

Linderbaum wouldn’t have been our guy there if the team thought Roullier was going to come back strong. He’d be riding the pine and the team wanted to win asap. 
 

If we allow ourselves to use hindsight we obviously should have found a way to get Linderbaum. But then do we get as much production out of our receivers to the tune of 7 TDs from Dotson? It’s a dangerous game to play.

I think the idea was that Linderbaum could start at C and we could shift Roullier to LG or something like that.

[KDawg]

12 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I think the idea was that Linderbaum could start at C and we could shift Roullier to LG or something like that.

I think, if that was the idea, we’re moving a high end center to guard for yucks and there is nothing saying either guy works out.