2023 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Going Commando]

5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Great point about health.  It's a really tough to spot to stay healthy.

 

I think it's the worst position to play, pound for pound.  Blocking and getting blocked on every snap is brutal, but at least you can usually square up for that contact and see it coming.  You combine that kind of regular contact with the worst hits that WRs have to take when they play between the hashes and that's a TE's life.  Those guys play through each season with so much damage it's amazing when one has a long NFL career.  They don't get any sympathy either.  Makes me think Tony Gonzalez was one of the most remarkable players in NFL history.

 

A lot of the tall guys I've known who hated playing football as kids were tight ends.  Only the football lifers who live and breathe the sport seem to last a long time at the spot, as it's hard to be halfway into football when you're getting the Hell beaten out of you in practice every day.

[Skinsinparadise]

6 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

I think it's the worst position to play, pound for pound.  Blocking and getting blocked on every snap is brutal, but at least you can usually square up for that contact and see it coming.  You combine that kind of regular contact with the worst hits that WRs have to take when they play between the hashes and that's a TE's life.  Those guys play through each season with so much damage it's amazing when one has a long NFL career.  They don't get any sympathy either.  Makes me think Tony Gonzalez was one of the most remarkable players in NFL history.

 

A lot of the tall guys I've known who hated playing football as kids were tight ends.  Only the football lifers who live and breathe the sport seem to last a long time at the spot, as it's hard to be halfway into football when you're getting the Hell beaten out of you in practice every day.

 

If you got one, what a difference it makes to the offense.  See the Cheifs, 49ers, Eagles, etc.

 

Jay Gruden articulates it well, its a game changer in the red zone because most of them are masters of getting open in tight spaces and have the height to catch balls in the back of the end zone and outside of the red zone they can also be a Qb's best friend because again they can get open in short spaces and are big targets and in turn open up the outside for the WRs.

 

When you got those rare Y-TEs who can do it all they are all a QB's best friend in pass blocking and can be a chess piece who can line up anywhere and help dicipher coverage.

 

And the idea that the better TEs are drafted later.  I actually bought that to an extent until I went though the drafts recently.  If you go through the last lets say 6 years, yeah Kittle was a 5th.  Goedert in the 2nd was a great pick but he had plenty of hype.  But for the most part (not all) the TEs taken early in the draft including the first were better than the TEs taken later.   

 

So the go get your own Kitttle in the 5th sounds cool, but its not that easy, easier to find Kittle early than it is in the 5th in recent years.

 

 

Edited January 24, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[method man]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

If you got one, what a difference it makes to the offense.  See the Cheifs, 49ers, Eagles, etc.

 

Jay Gruden articulates it well, its a game changer in the red zone because most of them are masters of getting open in tight spaces and have the height to catch balls in the back of the end zone and outside of the red zone they can also be a Qb's best friend because again they can get open in short spaces and are big targets and in turn open up the outside for the WRs.

 

When you got those rare Y-TEs who can do it all they are all a QB's best friend in pass blocking and can be a chess piece who can line up anywhere and help dicipher coverage.

 

And the idea that the better TEs are drafted later.  I actually bought that to an extent until I went though the drafts recently.  If you go through the last lets say 6 years, yeah Kittle was a 5th.  Goedert in the 2nd was a great pick but he had plenty of hype.  But for the most part (not all) the TEs taken early in the draft including the first were better than the TEs taken later.   

 

So the go get your own Kitttle in the 5th sounds cool, but its not that easy, easier to find Kittle early than it is in the 5th in recent years.

 

 

Kittle - 5th

Andrews - 3rd

Kelce - 3rd

Waller - 6th

Schultz - 4th

Goedert - 2nd

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, method man said:

Kittle - 5th

Andrews - 3rd

Kelce - 3rd

Waller - 6th

Schultz - 4th

Goedert - 2nd

 

I am talking recent years.  I already mentioned 2018 was better outside of the first.   Also my point was its not some no brainer, skip the first round and you'll find a better TE later.  There is a little of that but not as much as you'd think.  And as I said I made the same point about wait unti later in theory but then I started looking and seeing its not that simple.  I'll start with you always have a bigger pool of players outside the first round to help the odds.   And the failures outside the first are just as relevant.

 

So when you are comparing 12 players or whatever taken at a spot versus 1-2 -- at most spots, out of the larger pool you have a shot to match or even beat a first rounder, especially if its outside of the top 10.  But that's not based on reality.  It would be like i can either draft 1 guy in the first or i have the option of taking 10 guys at the same spot after the first and pick the best and discard the others. You give me 10 packs of baseball cards I am more likely to find the baseball card I want versus 2 packs. 

 

It's the same argument we have on the QB thread with some saying we have just as good a shot of finding a QB outside the first by comparing a ton picks versus a few.  I'd usualy take the 10 players or whatever at one spot versus just one, and cherry pick the best out of the 10 players.  But the draft doesn't work that way. 

 

I mentioned Goedert, too, not exactly a darkhorse pick, he had plenty of hype for that draft, some thought first, ended up in the 2nd.  Similar to Kmet.

 

And again I DO agree that its one of the spots that there is a good shot of success outside of the first round, I've made the point a ton of times on this thread.  My point is in recent years its not as pronounced as I orginally thought.  And that thought won't stop me from taking a TE in the first round.   I wanted Hockenson in the first when he was coming out, it didn't bother me that its possible to find a good TE in later rounds.  In part because finding that guy in later rounds isn't some slam dunk certainty by a long shot. 

 

Kelce doesn't help the point.  Going back 10 years?  Imagine if I can go back 10 years at ANY spot and show successes at any round?

 

2019 draft --

you got Hockenson, Fant round 1

Rounds 2-5:  

Irv Smith

Drew Sample

Josh Oliver

Jace Sternberger

Kahle Warring

Dawson Knox

Trevon Wesco

Foster Moreau

Kaden Smith

 

2020 draft no first round TEs

 

2021 draft

Kyle Pitts first round

Rounds 2-5

Freiermuth -- 2nd round, the next most hyped TE in the draft

Hunter Long

Tommy Tremble

Tre McKitty

John Bates

Kylen Granson

Luke Farrell

Brevin Jordan

Noah Gray

Zach Davidson

 

 

The vintage TE example of draft later closer to recent years IMO is 2017 since you got a bigger sample of success and failures. 

 

3 TEs taken in the first versus Kittle taken later obviously Kittle is the dude.  

 

First round:  OJ Howard (posterchild for first round busts) also  Njoku and Engram.  Njoku and Engram aren't killer but decent and oddly late career bloomers especially Engram.

 

2-5

G. Everett

Adam Sheehan

Jonu Smith

Michael Roberts

Jake Butt

George Kittle

Jordan Legett

Jeremy Sprinkle

Eric Saubert 

 

 

 

Edited January 24, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[method man]

33 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am talking recent years.  I already mentioned 2018 was better outside of the first.   Also my point was its not some no brainer, skip the first round and you'll find a better TE later.  There is a little of that but not as much as you'd think.  And as I said I made the same point about wait unti later in theory but then I started looking and seeing its not that simple.  I'll start with you always have a bigger pool of players outside the first round to help the odds.   And the failures outside the first are just as relevant.

 

So when you are comparing 12 players or whatever taken at a spot versus 1-2 -- at most spots, out of the larger pool you have a shot to match or even beat a first rounder, especially if its outside of the top 10.  But that's not based on reality.  It would be like i can either draft 1 guy in the first or i have the option of taking 10 guys at the same spot after the first and pick the best and discard the others. You give me 10 packs of baseball cards I am more likely to find the baseball card I want versus 2 packs. 

 

It's the same argument we have on the QB thread with some saying we have just as good a shot of finding a QB outside the first by comparing a ton picks versus a few.  I'd usualy take the 10 players or whatever at one spot versus just one, and cherry pick the best out of the 10 players.  But the draft doesn't work that way. 

 

I mentioned Goedert, too, not exactly a darkhorse pick, he had plenty of hype for that draft, some thought first, ended up in the 2nd.  Similar to Kmet.

 

And again I DO agree that its one of the spots that there is a good shot of success outside of the first round, I've made the point a ton of times on this thread.  My point is in recent years its not as pronounced as I orginally thought.  And that thought won't stop me from taking a TE in the first round.   I wanted Hockenson in the first when he was coming out, it didn't bother me that its possible to find a good TE in later rounds.  In part because finding that guy in later rounds isn't some slam dunk certainty by a long shot. 

 

Kelce doesn't help the point.  Going back 10 years?  Imagine if I can go back 10 years at ANY spot and show successes at any round?

 

2019 draft --

you got Hockenson, Fant round 1

Rounds 2-5:  

Irv Smith

Drew Sample

Josh Oliver

Jace Sternberger

Kahle Warring

Dawson Knox

Trevon Wesco

Foster Moreau

Kaden Smith

 

2020 draft no first round TEs

 

2021 draft

Kyle Pitts first round

Rounds 2-5

Freiermuth -- 2nd round, the next most hyped TE in the draft

Hunter Long

Tommy Tremble

Tre McKitty

John Bates

Kylen Granson

Luke Farrell

Brevin Jordan

Noah Gray

Zach Davidson

 

 

The vintage TE example of draft later closer to recent years IMO is 2017 since you got a bigger sample of success and failures. 

 

3 TEs taken in the first versus Kittle taken later obviously Kittle is the dude.  

 

First round:  OJ Howard (posterchild for first round busts) also  Njoku and Engram.  Njoku and Engram aren't killer but decent and oddly late career bloomers especially Engram.

 

2-5

G. Everett

Adam Sheehan

Jonu Smith

Michael Roberts

Jake Butt

George Kittle

Jordan Legett

Jeremy Sprinkle

Eric Saubert 

 

 

 

The underlying point is when you are taking a player in the first round and you are truly shooting for BPA, you want to take a guy who will be an All Pro / Pro Bowl type of guy and a foundational building block. If you are taking a non premium position like TE in the first, especially top 20, perennial Pro Bowler expectations are fair

 

Teams just have not been getting that type of value out of their first round TE picks. The jury is out on Pitts, Hockensen has checked the above box but given his top 10 pedigree he is a bit of a disappointment not having made an All Pro team. Njoku, Fant and Engram are both disappointments as well when it comes to first round value.

 

Recent history shows that, yes, while these first round TEs generally outdo their non first round peers, teams are not getting the value. Even in the case of Hockensen, the Lions could not get a 1st back, which reaffirms the league does not see TE as a premium position and the expectations need to be higher

 

[Warhead36]

1 hour ago, method man said:

Kittle - 5th

Andrews - 3rd

Kelce - 3rd

Waller - 6th

Schultz - 4th

Goedert - 2nd

On top of that, the Ravens actually took a TE in the 1st round the same year they took Andrews in the 3rd in Hayden Hurst who ended up being disappointing(although he's played well for the Bengals this year).

 

I am warming up to the idea of Mayer in the 1st though. Just the possibilities of a McLaurin/Dotson/Mayer offensive trio along with a Robinson/Gibson RB duo to build around for our potential future QB has me licking my lips. 

[Koolblue13]

Mayer and Bates blocking together would be fun, especially since you'll have to respect the pass and cant load the box.

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

On 1/21/2023 at 12:26 PM, KDawg said:

I don’t understand Duncan. Guy seemed to regress every season. Sometimes looks lazy. Then sometimes looks dominant for a spurt to returning to lazy. I haven’t formed a full take on him yet but currently not a fan. But he’s a guy I keep going back to.

 

 

Duncan dealt with some off field issues this season (family health related).

 

Might have played a factor in his disappointing season.

 

Just speculating.

Edited January 24, 2023 by BRAVEONAWARPATH

[method man]

13 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Mayer and Bates blocking together would be fun, especially since you'll have to respect the pass and cant load the box.

I haven’t studied Mayer’s blocking but the scouting reports seem to point to decent blocking but not elite, which is why some feel the Baby Gronk nickname  is undeserved

[Going Commando]

Andrews slipped through the cracks like Kelce and Gronk did.  He should have been a first round pick like them, bare minimum second rounder.  He won the Mackey award that year and had almost a thousand yards receiving and was Baker's go to receiver.  He wasn't the best player on Oklahoma's team, but probably the second best after Baker, as a freshman CeeDee Lamb hadn't fully emerged yet.

 

You can find gems outside the first for sure, but your odds are like one out of the ten players drafted in that range will stick.

 

This year should be a little different though, because it's a rich crop.  Can't know for sure, but it seems likely that we're going to get multiple hits for a change.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, method man said:

The underlying point is when you are taking a player in the first round and you are truly shooting for BPA, you want to take a guy who will be an All Pro / Pro Bowl type of guy and a foundational building block. If you are taking a non premium position like TE in the first, especially top 20, perennial Pro Bowler expectations are fair

 

Teams just have not been getting that type of value out of their first round TE picks. The jury is out on Pitts, Hockensen has checked the above box but given his top 10 pedigree he is a bit of a disappointment not having made an All Pro team. Njoku, Fant and Engram are both disappointments as well when it comes to first round value.

 

Recent history shows that, yes, while these first round TEs generally outdo their non first round peers, teams are not getting the value. Even in the case of Hockensen, the Lions could not get a 1st back, which reaffirms the league does not see TE as a premium position and the expectations need to be higher

 

 

I think perennial Pro Bower expectations for "non-premium" position while I get the spirit of the point to me its a bit wild.  I get the point but to me that's hyberbole.  

 

Only reason Pitts is TBD is injury, considering he had a killer rookie season. 

 

If Hockenson is a disappointment to you.  Then yeah based on that logic stay a mile away from a TE because I don't think you'd be pleased with almost any TE.   

 

I gather, we might be on different planets as to the premise of success or lack of success in the first round, the first round isn't IMO you are either a killer player or "meh" including for the non premium positions.  Just pulling "good" out of the first round isn't a piece of cake.  So many first rounders outright fail let alone become perennial pro bowlers and I get your point is centered for the less premium positons -- but still to me its seems a bit much as for lofty expectations.

 

 

https://theriotreport.com/more-than-50-of-first-round-picks-are-busts-and-other-terrifying-draft-statistics/

 

 

More Than 50% Of First Round Picks Are Busts And Other Terrifying Draft Statistics

Edited January 24, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

Speaking of non-first round TEs, If Musgrave assuming he's healthy by then, might kill the combine.  I am guessing he goes in the 2nd.  He made #27 on the freaks list.

 

I've talked about Musgrave previously, I could only find one game to watch.  But from the little I watched, he has really nice size, Y-TE size. 

 

IMO just average blocker.  But he can motor, long legs.  Big catch radius, hands catcher.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 24, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Going Commando]

I haven't watched Musgrave yet, but he's the most intriguing post Mayer TE in the class to me based in those numbers Feldman cited.  He should get close to a ten RAS with numbers like that.

[The Consigliere]

18 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Our TEs are awful. We definitely need to upgrade the position. I'm just weary of spending 1st round draft pick capital on one. The RoI has historically been poor on 1st round TEs. 

It's just immensely wasteful. I think this is one of those things dynasty people get more than even scouts and NFL People because so many high rollers have lost so much money investing rookie draft picks in TE's. 

 

The rookie draft pick production curve for TE's is flat out ----. Like horse ----. Even for the great ones, most of the time, it takes 2-3 years for them to blossom into potentially complete TE's (in line blocking skills and pass catching prowess). 

 

I can go down the list with you guys and the mix of busts and late bloomers is flat out ridiculous:

 

2015: the whole class sucked, it's telling that CJ Uzomah, ranked outside the top 12 by most, late day 3 projection to UDFA, is not only one of the hits, but also a guy that took what 5 years to hit at all?

 

2016: I remember it for Hunter Henry and the fact that the consensus was: "Not great, nobody worth a 1st". Other guys like Austin Hooper, Baby Gronk Higbee, Jerrell Adams athlete TE, Big School Vannett, but none of these guys became consistent difference makers and other than Henry, none ever moved the needle that much until much later (Higbee had a solid year last year for instance, six years later). 

 

2017: This was the TE class Mega class, the loaded of loaded best class in eons, and it was funny to see how it played out:

OJ Howard: Bust

Evan Engram: Dropsy but good

David Njoku: It took him six years to break out.

Gerald Everett: Tantalized, never delivered.

Jake Butt: Tore his ACL in his last game, was never the same (was a 1st round prospect before that)

Jordan Legget: Bust

Bucky Hodges: Athlete bust

Jonnu Smith: a guy who took years but finally hit then sunk again.

Eric Saubert: Another athlete TE that busted

Blake Jarwin: it was him and not Schultz that was expected to breakout with Dallas.

George Kittle: funny thing about him, day 3 pick, outside the top 10, hit almost immediately anyway.

 

2018: 

Hayden Hurst: I made my bones ----ing on this prospect. The Brandon Weeden of TE prospects, overage as hell, overdrafted anyway, not the athlete Goedert was either. Stupid pick then. I was fine w/him as a talent, but not with his age, ridiculous to take him before round 3 and he was a 1st. Jettisoned after just what, 2 years?

Dallas Goedert: Elite talent, had to wake for Philly to wake the hell up and move on from Ertz. 

Mike Gesicki: Elite physical talent, didnt hit exactly but wasn't a bust either, just solid TE not worth draft capital.

Mark Andrews: Interesting. Was ranked #1 in summer of '17 for the '18 class but slipped to 3rd or worse on most boards by the '18 draft, then hit big time.

Chris Herndon: Blah

Ian Thomas: My Guy, loved Thomas, never panned out.

Troy Fumagali and Tyler Conklin: These guys were my favorite day 3 dumpster dives. Denver grabbed Fumagali, and Minny grabbed Conklin. Fumagali never hit but Conklin started finally hitting in year 4 and 5.

Dalton Schultz: I ignored this guy totally and then he stole Blake Jarwins lunch money last year or the year before, forget which, basically in year 3 or 4 of his contract. 

 

2019: 

Hockenson, Fant: The two first rounders. Neither are as good as hoped, but both are reasonable starters and in an unusual twist, they were fine in year 1. Not great, but not invisible either. They both evolved into solid guys. 

 

Irv Smith Jr: Has busted despite numerous opportunities.

 

Jace Sternberger: Everyone's favorite sleeper slept. 

 

Kahale Warring: My favorite sleeper. Total bust from the 3rd round.

 

Caleb Wilson, Dawson Knox, Drew Sample, and Foster Moreau all went day 2 and day 3, all of them looked like busts and ended up busts other than Knox, and Moreau, the latter a capable fill in, Knox, an adequate starter.

 

2020: 

Noted terrible TE draft:

 

Adam Trautman: Became starter but never broke out as pass catcher.

 

Cole Kmet: Catch and fall scrub that can start.

 

Albert O: Was supposed to break out but instead lost his job this year.

 

Thaddeus Moss: Nope

 

Just bad.

 

2021: 

Pitts and Freirmuth were the tops of the class, both are hits though the former is misused. 

 

Brevin Jordan: was neck and neck w/Pitts for some going into his '20 season but fell off. Seemed to hit in late '21, but was barely involved in '22.

 

Hunter Long: Hasn't had much of an impact

 

Kyle Granson: Had some catches this year, like 1-1.5 a game.

 

Look through all those names and are literally any of the first rounders worth it historically speaking? I think the clear answer is an emphatic no. I can give Pitts a pass because Atlanta has no clue what they're doing, but the rest of them have all either been busts, or disappointing or not worth the cost in draft capital.

 

To me, TE seems simple, throw darts on day 2 or day 3 on athleticism and speed (seems to be the only thing thats predictive and barely so), and what I've always argued is let other teams invest draft capital and $$$ and then try to acquire guys that show a lot of promise after year 1 or year 2. I don't know why that isn't done. To be fair, my suggestions over the years were mostly wrong, I liked Everett, Shaheen (I forgot to list him in '17), Njoku, Warring, Engram, Albert O, Jarwin etc. But I still think a trade is the right way to go. 

 

If I ran the show, I would never use a day 1 pick or day 2 pick on a TE, I'd use day 3, and I'd work trades because otherwise its just a waste, they take forever to develop, generally, unless they're superstars (and projected superstars bust at a higher rate than 1st round QB's at the position). 

 

TE's I'd target for trade (don't have time to check to see if any are FA's this year):

Brevin Jordan

Harrison Bryant

Adam Trautman

Jelani Woods

Albert O

Foster Moreau

Jordan Akins

 

I think Akins is probably a a bit redundant, but the rest of them have good athletic profiles with some production potential as pass catchers. 

 

What I'm not doing is using a day 1 pick on a TE ever. This has been done a gazillion times historically and it rarely ever works, and NEVER works as well as projected even for the all world guys and the bust rate is flat out absurd. People advocating taking the #1 ranked TE I honestly wouldn't know what to say too. Have we watched whats happened over the years? Hell just the last 8: every one a bust or disappointment save kinda Pitts whose still disappointing? No thank you. Use day 3 picks to try to steal the sneaky hits out there, and trade for a guy or sign one whose interesting and cheap in FA because history shows, even the day 1-2 guys that hit typically take 2-4 years to hit by which point the rookie contract is largely donezo. 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

7 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

I haven't watched Musgrave yet, but he's the most intriguing post Mayer TE in the class to me based in those numbers Feldman cited.  He should get close to a ten RAS with numbers like that.

 

I haven't decided whether I like Musgrave or Washington more.  I am leaning Washington but want to see them both in the combine.   In both cases especially Washington you are betting some on athletisim-upside.  Mayer is the safer pick.   But the other two intrigue me.

 

The two after I think Kincaid and Kraft.  I've watched Kincaid.  I dabbled a lttle in Kraft but i don't think I have a strong enough feel for yet.   

 

Then there is a major drop off with guys like Laporta, Schoonmaker, Durham (among the guys I watched) sort of in that same range.  They strike me 5th rounders, not bad rotational type of TEs but not featured guys IMO.

Edited January 24, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[The Consigliere]

On 1/21/2023 at 6:53 PM, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I mentioned this when someone else posted the same thing.  Aaron the dude from Football Outsiders who did that ranking, hates this team.  And that's not hyperbole, he craps on the team in his radio segments for years.  The Football Outsiders season preview, which I buy every year, looks at every team with analytics.  When it comes to the Washington section, he just about always has a few paragraphs crapping on this team before launching into the numbers. 

 

I am guessing its based on Dan Snyer reading between the lines.  The irony is he's fairly dispassionate when talking about other teams.  His passion seems to be squarely about crapping on this team and how embarassing they are to the NFL and he's been on that track for a long time. 

That seems pretty de rigueur the past decade though. I would agree w/arguments that people jumped the gun w/him, about his ejecting a long loyal secretary the summer of '99, like there was instant distaste for the guy which makes me think some people knew of him before he bought the team and we're ready to shred him from the jump but regardless it makes sense to ---- on the team. The combo of being bad, bordering on incompetent, negligent seemingly with RGIII and Alex Smith, and worst of all, the ugliness of Snyder in general, the sexual harassment of his underlings, possibly of him, he's basically like an Austin Powers level villain but w/Bond evil levels to it. People hate him, not the team or its fans, they hate Snyder, and so they ---- on the team. I'd expect things to change pretty quick if he does sell, I think it's 1000% a Snyder thing. 

[Skinsinparadise]

38 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

2019: 

Hockenson, The two first rounders. Neither are as good as hoped, but both are reasonable starters and in an unusual twist, they were fine in year 1. Not great, but not invisible either. They both evolved into solid guys. 

 

 

 

TE is a slow evolving spot, I agree.  Hard to predict spot, I agree, too.

 

But there is a reason why teams have scouting departments versus just read PFF charts.  There are outliers.  There are exceptions and they aren't that difficult to spot all the time. 

 

Pitts was a freak in college.  Versus lets say a dude like Cole Kmet who to me was a solid player in Notre Dame but really kind of a traditional top TE in the draft.  Fun to watch but he doesn't blow you away.  While watching Kmet, would it be a bit wild to watch a TE 2 years younger than him stand out over him playing for the same team at the same time and by a good margin?  That dude would be Michael Mayer.

 

And if Hockenson with almost 90 catches, and 1000 yards and can also block is "solid". What's the definition of a good TE these days?  Those stats aren't that far from Kelce's.   So if Hockenson was just "solid".    I gather by the same standards, Kelce is just good.  

Edited January 24, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[The Consigliere]

On 1/22/2023 at 8:46 AM, Koolblue13 said:

It's a good pick for sure. Not trying to dump on him at all. 

 

Would have rather traded back again and gotten Watson or Pierce though.

Pierce??? Not Pickens? I'd rather have Pickens then all of them, easy, though I get why we didn't take him, but the only guys that seemed locks better potential than Doston to me were Pickens and Burks. Watson was incredibly speculative (looks like a hit though). 

[method man]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I think perennial Pro Bower expectations for "non-premium" position while I get the spirit of the point to me its a bit wild.  I get the point but to me that's hyberbole.  

 

Only reason Pitts is TBD is injury, considering he had a killer rookie season. 

 

If Hockenson is a disappointment to you.  Then yeah based on that logic stay a mile away from a TE because I don't think you'd be pleased with almost any TE.   

 

I gather, we might be on different planets as to the premise of success or lack of success in the first round, the first round isn't IMO you are either a killer player or "meh" including for the non premium positions.  Just pulling "good" out of the first round isn't a piece of cake.  So many first rounders outright fail let alone become perennial pro bowlers and I get your point is centered for the less premium positons -- but still to me its seems a bit much as for lofty expectations.

 

 

https://theriotreport.com/more-than-50-of-first-round-picks-are-busts-and-other-terrifying-draft-statistics/

 

 

More Than 50% Of First Round Picks Are Busts And Other Terrifying Draft Statistics

A good test of whether a first has worked out/you got good value, especially for a top 15 pick, is whether you can resell that guy to another team during a rookie contract for a first like the Ravens got for Hollywood

[Skinsinparadise]

4 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

That seems pretty de rigueur the past decade though. I would agree w/arguments that people jumped the gun w/him, about his ejecting a long loyal secretary the summer of '99, like there was instant distaste for the guy which makes me think some people knew of him before he bought the team and we're ready to shred him from the jump but regardless it makes sense to ---- on the team. The combo of being bad, bordering on incompetent, negligent seemingly with RGIII and Alex Smith, and worst of all, the ugliness of Snyder in general, the sexual harassment of his underlings, possibly of him, he's basically like an Austin Powers level villain but w/Bond evil levels to it. People hate him, not the team or its fans, they hate Snyder, and so they ---- on the team. I'd expect things to change pretty quick if he does sell, I think it's 1000% a Snyder thing. 

 

Unless I am missing your point, you are just saying he should hate this team because of Snyder.

 

OK, I've been in my Snyder hating dues diatribes.  I get the point more than most.

 

But when I consume anayltics in paticular.  I subscribe to PFF and I always get the Warrn Sharp and Football Outsiders season previews. -- I am looking for numbers and trends.

 

I used to TA stats and studied the psychology of the discipline too (in another life, long ago).  So I understand to an extent get even numbers guys let their emotions and biases overtake their anaylsis at times.  But Aaron takes it to a new orbit for me.  I read about other teams in his football gude and its normal.

 

Then I get to the Washington section and just wow.  His main point is a variation of there are teams that incompetent and dysfunctional but you are doing those teams a disservice to compare than to Washington -- Washington is in their own orbit of sucking and let me tell you why they are the worst.  And that stuff carries to some of his radio interviews, too.

 

Look, he's not wrong that its dyfunctional.  But he's no holds barred just about always.  Even people like JLC who some here gave a hard time for being a hater -- is miles tamer than Aaron.  For me, its being over the top, he hates this team and gives it zero benefit of the doubt and its so deep that it spills beyond just Dan.

 

[Skinsinparadise]

11 minutes ago, method man said:

A good test of whether a first has worked out/you got good value, especially for a top 15 pick, is whether you can resell that guy to another team during a rookie contract for a first like the Ravens got for Hollywood

 

Feels arbitrary to me.  Your point seems to be Hollywood got a first whereas Hockenson got a 2nd.  So Hollywood > Hockenson.

 

Heck how about Claypool fetching a high 2nd, too --does that mean Claypool is the better get?  Teams make good trades and make bad trades.

 

Yeah WR > TE.  Premium positions:  LT.  WR. CB. QB. Edge.  

 

 

I have never argued that TE is a premium postion.  I actually used the argument that its not to push Mayer ironically and I used Kyle Hamilton as an example last year -- apples to apples to some extent because we aren't picking in the top 10 hence a player like that could fall to us.  Is for example the 4th best LT > the first TE?  In some drafts yes, in this draft IMO nope. 

 

My larger point is what's the point of dissecting players on this thread if we are going to be slaves to past players to predict current players?  I get it if that player was some mirror clone of name that past player.  But when I am watching Michael Mayer -- flashes of Noah Fant do not run through my mind just because they both have gone/will go in the first.  

 

 

Edited January 24, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[The Consigliere]

On 1/23/2023 at 5:16 AM, Koolblue13 said:

It's like I've heard that before. Are you implying that you can't get a great TE in round one or that it doesn't increase your chances?

The bust rate of TE's taken in round 1 is far higher than one would expect, and the ROI on 1st round tight ends is dog manure. 

 

That should cover it. 

 

But whats much worse is that a TE prospect takes longer to develop than any prospect position period, even QB these days (though not in the distant past) so that any value in getting them on a cheap rookie deal is negated by how little value you get even if the player eventually hits. 

 

 

[The Consigliere]

19 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

I hear you but why judge current players by other players?   And regardless, not a lot of TEs have been going in the first round and the ones who have in recent years, TJ Hockenson and Kyle Pitts looked great. 

 

Pitts was hurt this year but had a killer rookie season.  Hockenson is one of the better TEs in the league.  Mayer reminds me a lot of Hockenson but IMO he's even better than what we saw from Hockenson's college tape. 

 

2018 the first round TE busted.

 

2019:  Hockenson was a first rounder and better than the TEs taken in the other rounds hands down.  Fant taken later in the first is better than all the other TEs after IMO, Sample, Irv Smith, Sternberger, Jake Oliver taken in the 2nd-4th round, etc -- I think he's better than Dawson Knox but i'll give that Knox and Fant are close so maybe that's a tie.  But Fant IMO has more upside.

 

2020 no TE taken in the first

 

2021:  Pitts better than the other TEs taken after. 

The only TE to come close to delivering on draft capital invested for a 1st rounder since 2015 was Pitts. One might make an argument that Engram was close. Hockenson was slow to develop and never became the elite difference maker they thought he was which is why they traded him once they ran out his rookie deal. He's not bad, but he's not top 10 overall pick good or close to it. The 1st round TE's over the years have habitually busted, or disappointed w/very few exceptions. 

 

[The Consigliere]

15 hours ago, KDawg said:

We don’t need another “flyer” tight end. To me it’s Darnell Washington or Michael Mayer or bust.

Just trade for a guy. Why draft a TE with a top 20 first rounder only to watch him give you Adam Trautman level production or worse? He was once the top TE in a class too and a strong name (not a 1st rounder of course but considered a top 50-75 guy). Just trade for a guy you like the upside of that, and failing that, go after guys like Engram and Njoku when they're available. TE's take forever to develop while you're not sure they even will develop. It is far more likely Mayer's developmental curve is very slow than he's an immediate hit. Even Tony Gonzalez only gave his team 2 catches a game that first year and he was a HOF. Other than Pitts, who was considered borderline the most talented player, not TE, player, in his class, none of the supposed super stud TE's for decades have delivered as rookies with first round draft capital at anything like an all pro to pro bowl level. Freaking Goedert took 4 years to break past a catch and fall scrub like Zach Ertz on his second contract. 

 

Its just not worth it, period. There are guys we can speculate on, and good options we can just trade for, go for one of them, speculate on a trade or day 3 guy, done. 

Edited January 24, 2023 by The Consigliere

[Skinsinparadise]

18 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

The only TE to come close to delivering on draft capital invested for a 1st rounder since 2015 was Pitts. One might make an argument that Engram was close. Hockenson was slow to develop and never became the elite difference maker they thought he was which is why they traded him once they ran out his rookie deal. He's not bad, but he's not top 10 overall pick good or close to it. The 1st round TE's over the years have habitually busted, or disappointed w/very few exceptions. 

 

 

Disappointment and bust are two different words.    

 

And disappointment, you can fit any argument just about and say its a disappointment by just moving the goal posts.  Hockenson is just "solid" even though his numbers are clearly better than that this season.  And now its he is a top ten pick lets judge him that way.  Would it feel better if he were picked at 16?  I am not advocating taking Mayer at #8.

 

And of course we aren't running with the premise that TE is the ONLY spot where first rounders fail.  Where its like crap that dude didn't make it and if we picked any other spot all these other guys are hits.  But we were suckers to take a TE, the one spot where you have a shot to fail unlike the others.

 

Lets go back ten years.

 

2021 Pitts

2019 Hockenson, Fant

2018 Hayden Hurst

2017:  OJ Howard, Evan Engram, David Njoku

2016 Hunter Henry

2015 Maxx Williams 

2014 Eric Ebron

2013 Tyler Eifert

 

It's not hot but its not a disaster either.  And the numbers of failures between the 2nd-5th round is pretty high.  Every draft doesn't bring a Kittle.

 

And again I am in the camp of TE is better after the first round typically.  I've probably made the point as much as anyone over the years.  My point i am not digging deeper on that point after actually going through draft after draft just to makes myself come off right because of what I've said in the past.  My point is I think i was over the top on the point, after dissecting this further.  Your point is I was dead on correct and can be even more over the top on this than i was if anything.  Cool. I just don't agree.

 

My larger point though is I am not stuck on ANY rule.   Exceptions exist.  Noah Fant and Even Engram to me do not equal Michael Mayer just because they are all first rounders.  It just feels lazy to me to look at drafts like that.

 

Edited January 24, 2023 by Skinsinparadise