2023 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[mhd24]

 

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I was listening to Keim this morning.  He wasn't reporting this but speculated about a tag and trade.  And he also wondered if Payne would be happy playing on the tag.  Some players are cool with it, others get pissed.   

 

I'd rather keep Payne everything being equal.  And I know according to Keim and others so would the team.  But the tag and trade might be a perfect storm here.

 

A. the tag money now is reasonable for that position for someone of Payne's caliber

 

B.   Payne having his breakout season this year is it makes him more marketable.  No longer you have to sell he could have a lot of sacks if -- now you can sell ther actual sacks.

 

C.  This is the key point.  They might not have any choice but to tag him versus lock him up because of the ownership issue.  The speculation is Dan doesn't want to escrow some big contract with guaranteed money in the midst of a sale.  

 

So if that's the case, if they tag him and Payne is pissed about (not sure if he would be or not but lets say he is) it likely means we got Payne on a 1 year rental and we lose him for a 3rd round comp pick 2 years later.  If they trade him, I think they'd get a first.  Last year what was said was teams were offering a third, maybe if they were lucky they can get a 2nd but IMO this season is a game changer, I think they'd get a #1. 

 

I fell hard for Payne this year, love his play.  My one pause about him is i can't recall a player so seemingly attached to money-payday. It brings me back to the stories about Stubblefield who also had a career year in sacks pre-FA and was supposedly fixated on the payday. Haynesworth granted had plenty of other issues but he also had a career year and was fixated on the money.

 

Don't get me wrong, i think every player wants to get paid and i don't blame them for it.  But in Payne's case the narrative is a bit more over the top than I am used to with Payne making pay me the money gestures after sacks, wearing all green on his exit day saying yoi know what i want, and not being shy making it clear there isn't any loyalty to anything but getting thay big contract.  Maybe plenty of players think that but for a player to be that open about and beat guys saying things that match it -- it hits be again more over the top than usual. 

 

He's almost like out of Jerry McGuire level "Show Me The Money."  What I wonder is once Payne gets the money does he lose a little oomph in his play.  Logan Paulsen was talking about how Payne was practicing with more oomph-determination than what he saw in other years.  So does that carry once he gets his payday?  Don't get me wrong, I still think he will be good but would he be as good?  SF sold Buckner at his peak and reloaded with D line in the draft.  Back in the day, Belichick would sell assets when they were at their peak value. Payne right now is at peak value.

 

I know some where say they'd rather sell Sweat.  I would, too.  But the circumstances lend more to Payne being the guy to move.  Forgetting everything else I said, the main plotline for me is if they have no choice but to tag Payne, then I'd rather trade him. 

 

Nice analysis SIP.  I could see Detroit trading for Payne.  Would they offer #18 for him?  With the momentum of last year, maybe they don't want another rookie (alongside the 6th pick) and want a proven guy.  Would you do that trade?

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

 

 

Nice analysis SIP.  I could see Detroit trading for Payne.  Would they offer #18 for him?  With the momentum of last year, maybe they don't want another rookie (alongside the 6th pick) and want a proven guy.  Would you do that trade?

 

If i can get a mid first round pick, I'd do it.  Not because I want to trade Payne.  I don't.  But if they think a tag means Payne is a goner, i don't want to rent him for a year for a 3rd round pick, 2 years later.  I am sick of that approach.

 

Even the third round pick is a bit overplayed considering this.  The value of a pick drops a round if you have to wait a year.  So its basically the equivalent of a late 4th round round pick, just a spot or two above the top of the 5th round.  A 3rd round comp pick is pretty crap value for a great player in part because in reality its pretty close to an early 5th round pick value in a trade.

Edited January 19, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

I'd be happy with the 18th pick for Payne. The 49ers got the 13th pick for Buckner and while Payne isn't quite as good as Buck, he is coming off 11 sacks and is still really young for a 5 year vet. And a Hutchinson-Payne DL combo would be ridiculous. 

[Riggo#44]

14 hours ago, Chump Bailey said:

Last post of the day. Apologize if I am annoying anyone but I love Michigan QB JJ McCarthy. I'll be curious where he goes next year.

 

I don't post a lot in this thread because there are many people who know more than me, you're one of them--it's very informative and I enjoy the analysis. Keep up the good work.

[Going Commando]

If we franchise tag Payne and can't get a deal done by summer, it means he's going to eventually walk like Scherff and Cousins did.  Tagging poisons the well in contract negotiations and teams almost never come back from that and get a deal done down the road.

 

Just one more reason to hate the Carson Wentz trade.  What an awful mistake it was.

[Ball Security]

24 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

 

 

Nice analysis SIP.  I could see Detroit trading for Payne.  Would they offer #18 for him?  With the momentum of last year, maybe they don't want another rookie (alongside the 6th pick) and want a proven guy.  Would you do that trade?

Seattle reportedly showed a lot of interest in Payne at the deadline. Along with Detroit, they already have a high first. They also pick 20.  Perhaps we have two teams willing to give up a mid-first for him.

[Warhead36]

Lions had the 4th worst rush D last year. Their pass defense also sucked so Payne would help in that regard(with increased pass rush). They're probably the best fit. Hopefully they'd be willing to give up the 18th pick for him. I'd also consider something like a 2nd and 4th(but in that case would rather just resign Payne).

[skinny21]

I’d hate to lose Payne (and can’t say I’m excited about possibly losing Sweat next year), but I would also love to see us (finally) move into a “sell high” mentality.

Couple that with an owner change that could potentially open/unlock the doors to FA… man, what a breath of fresh air that would be.

[FrFan]

Best NFL rookie classes for 2022: Ranking teams with most production

28. Washington Commanders

The Commanders' rookie class was laid low by injury. First-round wide receiver Jahan Dotson missed five games with a hamstring injury and had only four total targets in the three games he played after returning (Weeks 10-12). Overall, Dotson finished with 35 catches for 523 yards and seven touchdowns; his 12.5% receiving DVOA was second among qualifying rookie receivers behind Pickens. Second-round defensive tackle Phidarian Mathis went down with a knee injury in Week 1. Of course, you know about the gunshot wound that cost running back Brian Robinson Jr. the early part of the season, although he did return by October. He started nine games and gained 797 yards on 205 carries (a pedestrian 3.9 yards per carry).

The Commanders do get some credit for defensive tackle John Ridgeway, originally a fifth-round pick of the Cowboys. He played over 30% of defensive snaps for Washington after the Commanders picked him up off waivers in mid-September. Defensive backs Percy Butler and Christian Holmes primarily saw the field on special teams.

 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

We should be really happy about a 1st in exchange for Payne. Obviously having him back would be nice, but where our roster resources are could be shuffled around.

 

Mathis returning and Ridgeway's surprise rookie season open up possibilities.

 

 

[CommanderCarson]

9 minutes ago, FrFan said:

Best NFL rookie classes for 2022: Ranking teams with most production

28. Washington Commanders

The Commanders' rookie class was laid low by injury. First-round wide receiver Jahan Dotson missed five games with a hamstring injury and had only four total targets in the three games he played after returning (Weeks 10-12). Overall, Dotson finished with 35 catches for 523 yards and seven touchdowns; his 12.5% receiving DVOA was second among qualifying rookie receivers behind Pickens. Second-round defensive tackle Phidarian Mathis went down with a knee injury in Week 1. Of course, you know about the gunshot wound that cost running back Brian Robinson Jr. the early part of the season, although he did return by October. He started nine games and gained 797 yards on 205 carries (a pedestrian 3.9 yards per carry).

The Commanders do get some credit for defensive tackle John Ridgeway, originally a fifth-round pick of the Cowboys. He played over 30% of defensive snaps for Washington after the Commanders picked him up off waivers in mid-September. Defensive backs Percy Butler and Christian Holmes primarily saw the field on special teams.

 

I get that it may be based on production and we had some injuries but 28th seems awfully harsh. I think in 3 years time it’s easily a top ten class.

[Going Commando]

If we trade Payne then we will take a major step back on defense.  There is no getting around that reality.  An extension just needs to get done.

[CommanderCarson]

2 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

If we trade Payne then we will take a major step back on defense.  There is no getting around that reality.  An extension just needs to get done.

Agreed I’m so tired of this, sign him end of discussion! I don’t want to see Payne winning playoff games with the Carolina panthers or some random team in 3 years while we’re fielding a consistently terrible defense. 

[Skinsinparadise]

5 minutes ago, CommanderCarson said:

I get that it may be based on production and we had some injuries but 28th seems awfully harsh. I think in 3 years time it’s easily a top ten class.

 

Agree.  I saw that write up and ignored it. 

 

That was from Aaron from Football Outsiders who to say he hates this team would be an understatement.  I buy the Football Outsiders season preview every year and the Washington section is basically a diatribe about how much he detests this franchise, let me count the ways.   He does it on some of his radio interviews, too.  It comes off unprofessional.  I buy the guide anyway because I like to look at the numbers

 

5 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

If we trade Payne then we will take a major step back on defense.  There is no getting around that reality.  An extension just needs to get done.

 

Sounds like for that to happen, we need to get lucky and have the ownership sale move fast.  Right now that's a wildcard.  Doubtful Dan is going to approve an extension where major money would need to be escrowed as it works with big contracts-guaranteed money.

Edited January 19, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[DWinzit]

17 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Sounds like for that to happen, we need to get lucky and have the ownership sale move fast.  Right now that's a wildcard.  Doubtful Dan is going to approve an extension where major money would need to be escrowed as it works with big contracts-guaranteed money.

I doubt anyone wants to lose Payne.  I am concerned by what money restrictions will be in place as a transfer of ownership occurs will force the trade (fingers and toes crossed the transfer happens!)  My gut is the trade happens leaving us with at least a late first or high second rounder along with possibly others in a package. On the positive, that gives us at least one more high pick and getting Mathis back healthy is going to be like getting another 2nd rounder. He can help in filling Payne's void

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

I doubt anyone wants to lose Payne.  I am concerned by what money restrictions will be in place as a transfer of ownership occurs will force the trade (fingers and toes crossed the transfer happens!)  My gut is the trade happens leaving us with at least a late first or high second rounder along with possibly others in a package. On the positive, that gives us at least one more high pick and getting Mathis back healthy is going to be like getting another 2nd rounder. He can help in filling Payne's void

 

There can be consequences in the middle of ownership changes, because there is often a phase where money isn't moved, heck that's how we lost Trent Green.

 

In this case, will see.  But there is a good chance its not business as usual. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

47 minutes ago, FrFan said:

Best NFL rookie classes for 2022: Ranking teams with most production

28. Washington Commanders

The Commanders' rookie class was laid low by injury. First-round wide receiver Jahan Dotson missed five games with a hamstring injury and had only four total targets in the three games he played after returning (Weeks 10-12). Overall, Dotson finished with 35 catches for 523 yards and seven touchdowns; his 12.5% receiving DVOA was second among qualifying rookie receivers behind Pickens. Second-round defensive tackle Phidarian Mathis went down with a knee injury in Week 1. Of course, you know about the gunshot wound that cost running back Brian Robinson Jr. the early part of the season, although he did return by October. He started nine games and gained 797 yards on 205 carries (a pedestrian 3.9 yards per carry).

The Commanders do get some credit for defensive tackle John Ridgeway, originally a fifth-round pick of the Cowboys. He played over 30% of defensive snaps for Washington after the Commanders picked him up off waivers in mid-September. Defensive backs Percy Butler and Christian Holmes primarily saw the field on special teams.

 

 

The Eagles were ranked just above us, I was surprised to learn how little their rookie class played. I really liked Nakobe Dean coming out but he couldn't earn playing time.

[KDawg]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I haven't watched Bergeron yet but will.   I noticed he gave up the 2nd most sacks among the OT prospects in this draft.  But otherwise heard good things. 

 

I do like Freeland who I think also would be in that range.

 

He did give up sacks but I think that stat is a bit flimsy. His QB was horrendous and the guy couldn't stay in the pocket to save his life. But it's something to be aware of for sure. 

[DWinzit]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

There can be consequences in the middle of ownership changes, because there is often a phase where money isn't moved, heck that's how we lost Trent Green.

 

In this case, will see.  But there is a good chance its not business as usual. 

Yes the Trent Green lose hurt a great deal. If I recall they were allowed to make some sort of a minimal deal but not allowed to add to the offer or counter once the Rams gave him a better offer...they knew we wanted him but were handcuffed

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

40 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

If we trade Payne then we will take a major step back on defense.  There is no getting around that reality.  An extension just needs to get done.

 

Yes and no. Payne is obviously good. Ridgeway was a surprise, but even with development I doubt he'll ever be an above average pass rusher. Mathis panning out matters a lot.

 

If we get a 1st back for Payne, and that 1st goes to a CB like Witherspoon (or of that quality), and Paynes franchise tag amount is used in FA and to extend Curl, then the defense is still in a good spot.

 

Ideally we want to keep Payne, but if Dan refuses a big money extension cause he's selling then we need the best options to renew talent on the D as possible.

[Stadium-Armory]

Mathis' knee injury couldn't have been more inconvenient for the team. I think the idea was to assess his play then make a decision on Payne. Now we're still at square one. 

[Daniel.redskins]

If we trade Payne for a draft pick and we draft another dt then I would feel fine about it.  Payne clearly cares about the money and has no loyalty to Washington.  Allen is the better player and our long term dt.  

[Going Commando]

54 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Sounds like for that to happen, we need to get lucky and have the ownership sale move fast.  Right now that's a wildcard.  Doubtful Dan is going to approve an extension where major money would need to be escrowed as it works with big contracts-guaranteed money.

 

They have to conduct an offseason.  If anything, the ownership change hampers the ability to acquire new players and incentivizes us to use the tools we have to keep our own.  If they can't get anything done with Daron during the initial free agency period, they'll probably tag him and try and get him signed before the deadline in the summer.

 

I would be shocked if this FO trades him for 2023 draft capital.  That has never been the way they've operated.  No, we all need to be rooting for a deal with Daron to get done.

[philibusters]

3 hours ago, mhd24 said:

 I could see Detroit trading for Payne.  Would they offer #18 for him?  With the momentum of last year, maybe they don't want another rookie (alongside the 6th pick) and want a proven guy.  Would you do that trade?

 

I would take that trade in a heartbeat.  I wouldn't mind keeping Payne, but I can get a mid first rounder for him, I would definitely do that.   He was really good this year, but this was his best year so far, I am not sure we can count on this type of production year in and year out.  Its a deep DLine class so  I probably use that 18th pick to draft his replacement.

 

I think the much harder decision is if you get offered a mid 2nd round for him.

Edited January 19, 2023 by philibusters

[Skinsinparadise]

42 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

They have to conduct an offseason.  If anything, the ownership change hampers the ability to acquire new players and incentivizes us to use the tools we have to keep our own.  If they can't get anything done with Daron during the initial free agency period, they'll probably tag him and try and get him signed before the deadline in the summer.

 

I would be shocked if this FO trades him for 2023 draft capital.  That has never been the way they've operated.  No, we all need to be rooting for a deal with Daron to get done.

 

A lot of variables, some which are unique and not sure how it all meshes together.

 

A.  Dan selling, new owner likely not in place until April-May at the earliest according to some covering the team but it might be later than that and can drag into the summer.  So to your point yeah you can tag and negotiate once the new owner is in place, if i recall the deadline for a contract after a tag is like July 15th or so? 

 

B.  Ron by every account wants Payne back, he's spoken openly about it.

 

C.  Payne wants a big payday and wants it bad, he's not shy about making that clear, also said he's is leaving it to his agent.  

Edited January 19, 2023 by Skinsinparadise