Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Wildbunny]

56 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

1) this theory doesn’t consider Russias reaction to our action and our response to their reaction. it doesn’t account for Chinas reaction. No I’m not saying ww3 right away. But right now China is staying out of it.  You can say not enacting sanctions is taking Russias side, but it’s really not. They haven’t provided Russia with anything. If we start attacking Russia directly, China has great domestic security interests in supporting the Russian government as it currently exists, friendly to the east and foes with the west.  That doesn’t mean that China start’s shooting guns. Just that it starts helping Russia get around sanctions, provides tech, ect.

Mind you, I'm pretty confident China, nor India would move in any military way, nor provide support to Russia. And if they don't, NK won't either.

Fact is China would have lots of interest of Russia being crushed down by us as they could seize a huge part of the Russia northeast of them quite easily then.

 

32 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

They aren't sending money.  They are sending $1.7 billion in weapons and aid and communications gear and medical equipment and satellite imagery analysis capability and aw hell I'll just copy and paste it.

I wish European was feeding a bit more than what we are doing right now. But we're clearly seeing our military limitations from our European countries that haven't been on "building defense" for decades.

 

One thing that is not being talked at all, but is quite clear still, is I believe even if we aren't fighting, we're providing Ukraine much intelligence and military support on how to deal with Russia. Those columns on tanks being destroyed by simple infantry is impressive to watch.

As I've said many time, I'm hoping for our leaders to have something else undeer their belt and are preparing for more, because at the end of the day, Putin will nuke something or someone just because he won't have anything else to launch.

[PeterMP]

9 minutes ago, tshile said:

Not that I know a damn thing about China (or Russia for that matter) that matters but my gut has been they’ve been walking away from Russia for a while now… I mean russias reputation in the region is trash. The joke is that ****ty stuff is Russian made. 
 

Watching them step on their own dick in ukraine couldn’t have helped. Combined with the international sanction response (if sanctions are stuck to it’s reasonable to describe Russia as on the path to being North Korea) and the fact that China is heavily invested in us and the rest of the west… it seems certainly reasonable China would look at everything going on and think “um…. No thanks”

 

I’m not really sure what China gains in getting involved. Russia is clearly a clown show militarily. Would you want to voluntarily join them in taking on the US and NATO?

 

China getting indirectly involved helps them in that it weakens and distracts us.  Every dead American would be a distraction.

 

Though while us getting more involved would influence China and make China move towards Russia, I don't think the move would be longer term (it would be an expedient move).

 

And our lack of more overt action certainly has Chinese interest as they consider their interest through the world, including Taiwan.

 

(I've said before.  China has to be loving this and even more so now.  There has always been a bit of an adversarial relationship between China and Russia, but it is now clear that Russia is not a threat to China at all (except for nukes), sanctions will make Russia even more dependent on China, and China is seeing what they can get away in terms of brining Taiwan and other areas of interest.  By letting the actions of Russia pass, we are indirectly encouraging war crimes by other entities in future conflicts, including China.  China is looking around at Taiwan and areas where they have disputes with like Vietnam and thinking we can pretty much take what we want when we're ready and do pretty much anything needed to take them and there isn't going to be a western/NATO/US military response.)

[PleaseBlitz]

54 minutes ago, tshile said:

I think limiting it to just the money we send, is the problem. 

 

This is just flat out incorrect.... 

 

41 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

They aren't sending money.

 

/Provides very long list of military equipment directly transferred to Ukraine, showing that they aren't sending money but, rather, a ****load of weapons.

 

38 minutes ago, tshile said:

they need more, is my point. 

 

 

 

*his point before was that he is "incredibly disappointed" in our response because we are only sending money (which again, is not true).

 

38 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

Like I said, I think you are just far out of the mainstream.  And that's fine.  

 

38 minutes ago, tshile said:

the fear mongering over ww3/nukes has worked

 

 

IT CAN'T BE THAT IM WRONG (even though the first post above clearly shows it), ITS THAT THE FEARMONGERING IS WORKING ON EVERYONE ELSE.

 

🤣

[DogofWar1]

mmmmmm I'm not so sure about China loving watching this from their own aspirations perspective.

 

China's military has a big corruption problem too, so while China is learning a lot, one of the lessons they might be learning is that they might get whacked if they bring their "show army" to a fight with a determined defender.  China also has to do a water landing for a Taiwan invasion, which is a logistical nightmare.

 

I suspect they would still try, they want Taiwan fully back under their control by 2049, but there might be a window here for some sort of non-war settled solution if Xi has some anxiety that his army is going to perform poorly.

Edited April 6, 2022 by DogofWar1

[tshile]

2 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

China getting indirectly involved helps them in that it weakens and distracts us.  Every dead American would be a distraction

Well, my preference would be action that doesn’t put boots on the ground. I’m willing to put planes in the air to enforce a no fly zone, assuming the people that actually matter think it would work and we’d be successful without loss (or much loss)

 

I get what you’re saying but does full scale war with the US meet what you’re saying? I would think not. Especially if the US is limited to defending ukraine (and not doing anything on Russian/Chinese soil)

 

To me it makes absolutely no sense. 

2 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

IT CAN'T BE THAT IM WRONG (even though the first post above clearly shows it), ITS THAT THE FEARMONGERING IS WORKING ON EVERYONE ELSE.

 

🤣

I mean… that’s the first thing out of everyone’s mouth. Nukes and ww3. 
 

it’s clearly working. 
 

the question is the merit of the argument. You’re acting like everyone knew everything about this from the moment this started and  that’s not even close to accurate. I’ve yet to see anyone say they’re not surprised the way this has gone, across the board. 

By the way. Us staying out of it in no way guarantees this won’t turn into ww3 anyways or nukes won’t be used anyways. 
 

the entire position is logically inconsistent and nonsense. 
 

but it does sound scary. There’s no doubt about that. 

[PleaseBlitz]

3 minutes ago, tshile said:

I mean… that’s the first thing out of everyone’s mouth. Nukes and ww3. 
 

it’s clearly working. 
 

the question is the merit of the argument. You’re acting like everyone knew everything about this from the moment this started and  that’s not even close to accurate. I’ve yet to see anyone say they’re not surprised the way this has gone, across the board. 

 

I'm not acting like everyone knew everything about this from the moment this started.  I'm acting like you've stated several things that are flat out untrue and yet refuse to consider the fact that your opinion might be wrong, and are trying to quickly distance yourself from your original terrible stance.  

[88Comrade2000]

China should invade Russia. They are ripe for the taking.

[tshile]

15 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

China's military has a big corruption problem too, so while China is learning a lot, one of the lessons they might be learning is that they might get whacked if they bring their "show army" to a fight with a determined defender. 

Every former military person i know, some of which actually matter (some don’t), has been talking about increased Chinese military capability over the years. Specifically their defense capabilities. Specifically over the horizon capabilities that concern our naval capabilities. 
 

All of them think russias a joke. 
 

Obviously no one will talk any further than generalities. But the general vibe was the two don’t compare. 

9 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

I'm not acting like everyone knew everything about this from the moment this started.  I'm acting like you've stated several things that are flat out untrue and yet refuse to consider the fact that your opinion might be wrong, and are trying to quickly distance yourself from your original terrible stance.  

I’m sorry I said sending money instead of sending money worth’s of weapons. 
 

im sorry you’re hung up thinking that that’s the issue that matters here. 
 

as if it’s possible anyone paying attention doesn’t understand we’re sending them stuff. There’s articles about it on damn near every page, and on the news damn near every other night. 
 

but you’re right. You got me. I’ll try to be more specific to the aspects of the conversation that don’t matter as to not trip you up going forward. 
 

we were clearly talking about military action vs not. I thought it was obvious. Everyone else figured it out. But I’m sorry. 

Edited April 6, 2022 by tshile

[tshile]

7 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

China should invade Russia. They are ripe for the taking.

Yeah but conquest is a loser. 
 

ironically it only works if you do it the way Russia does it (when they succeed)

 

which is to kill everyone you can, then round up ship the ones you didn’t to some far away place. 
 

Easy to defeat an insurgency when there’s no one left to wage it. 

Edited April 6, 2022 by tshile

[FrFan]

Vitali Klitschko said on french tv Ukraine soldiers need more lethal weapons. Ukrainians are fighting for their country and families that's why they're superior to the russians fighting for money. Putin will try to seize Ukraine again and wants to restore the former USSR. He siad he's doing fine physically speaking but has been hurt psychologically when he met a 7 years old looking for his parents. Someone came to him whispering in his ear the kid doesn't know yet that he is an orphan.

 

 

[PleaseBlitz]

7 minutes ago, tshile said:

but you’re right. You got me. I’ll try to be more specific to the aspects of the conversation that don’t matter as to not trip you up going forward. 
 

we were clearly talking about military action vs not. I thought it was obvious. Everyone else figured it out. But I’m sorry. 

 

Not a surprising response, but disappointing nevertheless. 

[tshile]

Was it not pretty clear we were talking about military actions vs not?

[CousinsCowgirl84]

46 minutes ago, Wildbunny said:

Mind you, I'm pretty confident China, nor India would move in any military way, nor provide support to Russia. And if they don't, NK won't either.

Fact is China would have lots of interest of Russia being crushed down by us as they could seize a huge part of the Russia northeast of them quite easily then.

.

if Russia falls, what other strategic ally does China have. And listen, I have respect for China. But without Russia they are on an island. Really they have tried their best to stay neutral through this. 

24 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

China should invade Russia. They are ripe for the taking.

No one wants to take over another countries civilians because of entitlements. 🤪

[DogofWar1]

Things to watch in the battle for the Donbas.

1. The Donbas is largely flat and thus favors tanks and armored vehicles, of which Russia has a lot.  Russia is shorter on trained personnel, and on the flip side, Ukraine has lots of people and a lack of armor (but decent amounts of anti-armor weapons), so it'll be interesting to see how this plays out on the ground.  City battles will likely proceed as they have (Russia attempts to encircle before going into urban warfare).

2. Russia may thus take a lot of territory but it might be a relatively weak "taking" of territory, just based on driving tanks over open land.

3. Russia also has shown they aren't particularly smart, and love proceeding single file down roads, which is NOT within their doctrine, and will make them sitting ducks for Ukrainian defenders.

4. Next big battle will likely be for the town of Slovyansk.

 

TLDR, the coming battle might actually favor the Russians but the Russians have shown themselves to be wildly incompetent.

[tshile]

10 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

Russia also has shown they aren't particularly smart, and love proceeding single file down roads, which is NOT within their doctrine, and will make them sitting ducks for Ukrainian defenders.

Isn’t this because of the mud and that they get stuck when they leave the roadways?

 

 

[China]

4 minutes ago, tshile said:

Isn’t this because of the mud and that they get stuck when they leave the roadways?

 

 

 

Which again shows they're not smart, for starting a war during mud season.

[CousinsCowgirl84]

6 minutes ago, China said:

 

Which again shows they're not smart, for starting a war during mud season.

#forchina

[DogofWar1]

16 minutes ago, tshile said:

Isn’t this because of the mud and that they get stuck when they leave the roadways?

 

 

Yes, but, and I'm not sure of this, I'm unsure if the mud will still be present as much in the east.  The stuff I was reading didn't address it, but made it sound like the Donbas was better for tanks than other places.

[Larry]

1 hour ago, China said:

 

Which again shows they're not smart, for starting a war during mud season.

Admiring the notion that Russia, in a "war against Nazis" is surprised that the weather might hamper logistics. 

[DogofWar1]

I mean, it's actually kinda a problem.

 

They're SO incompetent that they are backing themselves into corners they never shoulda been in.

[TheGreatBuzz]

7 hours ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

The problem with claiming we can do something militarily that doesn’t involve trooos on the ground is twofold. 
 

1) this theory doesn’t consider Russias reaction to our action and our response to their reaction. it doesn’t account for Chinas reaction. No I’m not saying ww3 right away. But right now China is staying out of it.  You can say not enacting sanctions is taking Russias side, but it’s really not. They haven’t provided Russia with anything. If we start attacking Russia directly, China has great domestic security interests in supporting the Russian government as it currently exists, friendly to the east and foes with the west.  That doesn’t mean that China start’s shooting guns. Just that it starts helping Russia get around sanctions, provides tech, ect.

 

2) Our troops are already in areas where Russian influence makes them vulnerable to attack from agents of Russia in the Middle East and Africa. So even without troops directly in Ukraine, you still put troops in harms way.

 

 

Aside from wanting the bombing to stop, there is no real strategic interest in taking military action against Russia.
 

 

This is why I have repeatedly said to only target Russian assets IN UKRAINE.  That wouldn't be attacking Russia directly and would give China an excuse to stay out of it (which I think they would appreciate).

 

6 hours ago, tshile said:

I was against any idea of getting involved because I was biased by watching Afghanistan fall in 72 hours after 20 years of investment. They didn’t even try. i think it’s reasonable a lot of people had the same issue. 
 

it’s clear, and has been clear for weeks, this is not the same thing. At all. 
 

 

 

When this was all beginning,  I didn't want to get involved because I thought it would be like that and Ukraine would fall in a few days.  I was wrong.  And seeing people wanting to defend themselves makes want to help them.

[China]

U.S. to sanction Putin's adult children, ban all new investments in Russia

 

The U.S. will impose a new round of economic sanctions on Russia, the White House announced Wednesday, including sanctions on the adult children of President Vladimir Putin and other influential Russians, in response to new accusations that he committed war crimes in Ukraine.

 

"These oligarchs and their family members are not allowed to hold on to their wealth in Europe and the United States and keep these yachts worth hundreds of millions of dollars, the luxury vacation homes, while children in Ukraine are being killed, displaced from their homes, every single day," President Joe Biden said in a speech Wednesday afternoon.

 

U.K. Foreign Minister Liz Truss also announced new sanctions Wednesday, including an end to all Russian oil and coal imports by the end of the year.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[DCSaints_fan]

1 hour ago, The Almighty Buzz said:

This is why I have repeatedly said to only target Russian assets IN UKRAINE.  That wouldn't be attacking Russia directly and would give China an excuse to stay out of it (which I think they would appreciate).

 

So when Russia positions S-400s just inside the Russia-Ukraine border you think we're supposed to just let them fire at our jets with no consequence ?

Edited April 7, 2022 by DCSaints_fan

[MrSilverMaC]

Without arguing for or against U.S military intercession or the likelihood of ww3, I can’t believe that any country that fields russian pattern weapon systems watching Ukrainian civilians shred the russian army with NATO weapons would be eager to face an actual trained Western military. All of which would be better trained/equipped.

 

Even accounting for the heart and bravery of the Ukrainians,  the number of russian equipment and troop loses are jaw dropping.

 

I imagine china is absorbing every morsel of intel they can from Ukraine about russia’s tactical, logistical, and mechanical failures. They are also wondering just how badly they’d eviscerate their military trying to take Taiwan with all of their knock-off russian tech.

 

 

[DogofWar1]

I remember reading early on about China asking some questions about Russia's a KA-52 because one got shot down by 80's tech and they were a bit concerned about the orders they were placing as a result.

 

https://eurasiantimes.com/beijing-bemused-as-ukraine-shoots-down-russias-most-advanced-attack-helicopter/