Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[visionary]

 

[88Comrade2000]

32 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

So thinking about how this will eventually conclude… it seems like Ukraine can hold its own for some time, and Russia is determined to achieve its “goals” in Ukraine and it doesn’t look like there is enough descent within Russia to stop Putin outright… and both sides are also saying talks are slow but progressing better than they were previously… 

 

I think a possible compromise is that Russia installed a puppet government in the cities east of  a line from Kharkiv to Kherson and Ukraine agrees not to join nato and in return Ukraines government remains in place and Russia promises not to attack or move further west.

 

If that happens how long do you think before the world lifts sanctions on Russia?

 

No. Urkraine shouldn’t give an inch to Russia.

[CousinsCowgirl84]

6 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

No. Urkraine shouldn’t give an inch to Russia.

Why? The rest of the western world won’t step up. Zelensky isn’t like Putin. He cares about his people, and his country. The longer the war drags on the more people die and the more of his country gets destroyed.
 

Every time a children’s hospital gets bombed, Putin wins and Ukraine looses. 

 

 

[China]

How Ukraine’s Outgunned Air Force Is Fighting Back Against Russian Jets

 

Each night, Ukrainian pilots like Andriy loiter in an undisclosed aircraft hangar, waiting, waiting, until the tension is broken with a shouted, one-word command: “Air!”

 

Andriy hustles into his Su-27 supersonic jet and hastily taxis toward the runway, getting airborne as quickly as possible. He takes off so fast that he doesn’t yet know his mission for the night, though the big picture is always the same — to bring the fight to a Russian Air Force that is vastly superior in numbers but has so far failed to win control of the skies above Ukraine.

 

“I don’t do any checks,” said Andriy, a Ukrainian Air Force pilot who as a condition of granting an interview was not permitted to give his surname or rank. “I just take off.”

 

Nearly a month into the fighting, one of the biggest surprises of the war in Ukraine is Russia’s failure to defeat the Ukrainian Air Force. Military analysts had expected Russian forces to quickly destroy or paralyze Ukraine’s air defenses and military aircraft, yet neither have happened. Instead, Top Gun-style aerial dogfights, rare in modern warfare, are now raging above the country.

 

“Every time when I fly, it’s for a real fight,” said Andriy, who is 25 and has flown 10 missions in the war. “In every fight with Russian jets, there is no equality. They always have five times more” planes in the air.

Click on the link for the full article

[visionary]

 

[DCSaints_fan]

29 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

Why? The rest of the western world won’t step up. Zelensky isn’t like Putin. He cares about his people, and his country. The longer the war drags on the more people die and the more of his country gets destroyed.
 

Every time a children’s hospital gets bombed, Putin wins and Ukraine looses. 

 

 

Russia signed the Budapest memorandum in 1994 guaranteeing Ukraine's borders.  Wasn't contigent on anything.  Pieces of paper and promises mean nothing. 

In a month of fighting Russia has suffered > 10k casualties.  How long can they sustain that?   Will they be able to continue to produce munitions and carry out attacks at the rate they have been? 

Edited March 23, 2022 by DCSaints_fan

[spjunkies]

 

 

[China]

 

[China]

Kremlin lashes out at Poland for siding with Ukraine

 

In a blistering social media post, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, now a top Kremlin security adviser, lashed out at Poland for its support of Ukraine, reviving and escalating decades-long tensions between Moscow and Warsaw.

 

Poland’s surprisingly spirited defense of Ukraine would prove “expensive and pointless,” Medvedev predicted, ominously adding that he was confident that Warsaw would “make the right choice” and embrace Russia again.

 

Medvedev is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin and served a four-year placeholder presidency when Putin was facing term limits. Medvedev went on to serve as Putin’s prime minister and is now deputy chairman of the Kremlin’s security council. Putin is the chairman.

 

In Monday’s post on the Telegram social network, Medvedev lamented that “the interests of Polish citizens have been sacrificed to Russophobia” by “talentless politicians and their puppeteers” in the United States. He branded Polish leaders — two of whom, Jaroslaw Kaczynski and Mateusz Morawiecki, traveled to besieged Kyiv last week with other Eastern European leaders to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky — “political imbeciles” who were spreading “vulgar” propaganda about Russia.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[TheGreatBuzz]

2 hours ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

Why? The rest of the western world won’t step up. Zelensky isn’t like Putin. He cares about his people, and his country. The longer the war drags on the more people die and the more of his country gets destroyed.
 

Every time a children’s hospital gets bombed, Putin wins and Ukraine looses. 

 

 

 

Give an inch and they will take a mile.

[Larry]

I have to confess.  

 

Yes, it's escalation.  Likely to provoke more escalation.  And two wrongs, and all that.  

 

But, there's a decent sized chunk of me that would love a policy of, every time Russia blows up an apartment building in Kyiv, a cruise missile hits an apartment building in Moscow. 

 

Maybe Russia wouldn't like these policies so much, if they were suffering the same consequences.   Maybe they would feel differently about the sanctity of civilian targets.  

[visionary]

I'm pretty sure that's a war crime and Moscow is I think one of the less supportive areas for Putin.  Or at least there's more dissidents there than in most places.

 

Edited March 23, 2022 by visionary

[Wildbunny]

Russia is clearly escalating. There's apparently 2 overpowered bombs launched on Marioupol. A town they mostly control right now, so it's quite probable they hit some of their guys too.

 

4 hours ago, DCSaints_fan said:

Russia signed the Budapest memorandum in 1994 guaranteeing Ukraine's borders.  Wasn't contigent on anything.  Pieces of paper and promises mean nothing. 

In a month of fighting Russia has suffered > 10k casualties.  How long can they sustain that?   Will they be able to continue to produce munitions and carry out attacks at the rate they have been? 

I don't know how long they can sustain that, They clearly doesn't have much respect for their own soldiers.

And when they'll run out of ammos, I'm pretty sure Putin will drop a nuke on Ukraine just to prove he's mighty.  He stated more than once that Ukraine isn't even a real country, so I doubt he would really think twice before doing it.

[DCSaints_fan]

1 hour ago, Larry said:

I have to confess.  

 

Yes, it's escalation.  Likely to provoke more escalation.  And two wrongs, and all that.  

 

But, there's a decent sized chunk of me that would love a policy of, every time Russia blows up an apartment building in Kyiv, a cruise missile hits an apartment building in Moscow. 

 

Maybe Russia wouldn't like these policies so much, if they were suffering the same consequences.   Maybe they would feel differently about the sanctity of civilian targets.  

If you’re going to consider that you need to go all in and consider full nuclear first strike.  Which I hope no president would actually be able to pull off under any circumstances … because (and maybe this is some US bias on my part) but I am thinking our fail safes should be much better than the Russians and if it’s possible for us it would be much easier for them….

 

As it is, even as well as  they’ve exceed expectations, I cant see this ending well for the Ukrainians.  Best case they lose just some of their territory, and will probably have to make some neutrality pledge.  Even if they continue to hold off the Russian forces in the field, Russia will continue to systematically level their cities.  The more I read about Putin, his background and career arc , the more I’m convinced of his psychology lining up with Adolf Hitler almost to a T.  And could you imagine if Hitler had access to a nuclear button especially at the end of WW2, even if it meant guaranteeing the destruction of Germany, which he was almost trying to destroy at that point anyway as he felt that “Germany failed him”.  So I can see something very similar happening with Putin, especially in Russia he realizes the only the way this one ends is with him being able to claim some type of victory or a bullet to the head. 

The only thing we might be able to do with Putin is wait him out, he is close to 70, with any luck his time is limited.  Too bad he doesn’t drink like most Russian men ( another uncanny resemblance with Hitler ) 

[Wildbunny]

I doubt Ukraine's meutral stance would really last long.

With everything that is going on, ressent against Russia is increasing, and won't stop if attacks stop. Russia proved they aren't to take for granted as they'll probably betray what they signed if that it's their supposed interest.

 

They can remain neutral with NATO, but if they make it up on joining EU (which they shouldn't considering their economic reality), then that'll be alike as European defense is NATO.

 

Regarding the Hitler comparison, honestly, I don't ****ing know, but the more it goes, the more it seems like we'll have to do it the same way. Just because of one guy.

[Larry]

I think if Russia demands a "no NATO" guarantee, to halt hostilities. I'd give it to them in a heartbeat.  

 

And then announce that they've joined NATO, one day after they do it.  Under the "promises made to terrorists aren't binding" rule.  

[visionary]

 

 

[visionary]

 

[FrFan]

 

 

[FrFan]

Quebec sniper Wali, ex of the 22nd regiment, is alive and well.

 

 

 

 

[RansomthePasserby]

23 minutes ago, visionary said:

 

Maybe trying to slow Ukrainian counter attacks?

[CousinsCowgirl84]

8 hours ago, The Almighty Buzz said:

 

Give an inch and they will take a mile.

That sounds good until it’s your cities getting destroyed and your children getting killed.

 

That is probably part of Russia’s strategy.  Ukraine should fight as long as they want to fight, but I wouldn’t think less of them for reaching a peace deal like I mentioned.  
 

I would think less of the world though, if such a deal was reached and the sanctions were lifted.

Edited March 23, 2022 by CousinsCowgirl84

[visionary]

 

[FrFan]

 

[LD0506]

People wildly underestimate the value and effect of psychology and morale in a people under attack, and the concomitant effect it has on their attackers. To the Ukrainians they are winning this war, they just keep calling for more support and supplies but overwhelmingly they are in it to win it and not talking about concessions. The Russian units are disorganized, ill equipped/supported and unmotivated. There is a reason that the vast majority of gains the Russians have made is in the south. They had better, more politically reliable troops in Crimea after occupying/pacifying that capture. Even there the axis of attack has been NE towards Russia to establish the landbridge and cut off access to the coast. They have also enjoyed naval support that the Ukrainians are unable to interdict. 

 

Putin is saber rattling, using the threat of nukes as political leverage, but the chances of them actually being employed is low. Using them against Ukraine would ignite a firestorm of controversy at home and require a huge increase in reliable soldier policing to keep protests in check. 

 

The average Russians are not stupid or brainwashed, they are afraid of what their government can and will do when it gets pissed. They've lived too many examples of that. Governments et. al. count on the deterrent factor of cruelty to keep their citizens in check, They do it because it works and people will take the path of least resistance when their survival is at stake, but there are limits to that, and while authoritarian systems tend to be very hard, they are also brittle. When they break, they shatter.

 

Russian has already suffered unexpected troop losses and more importantly, losses of materiel that will be difficult to replace. There is not some endless pool of men and materiel, and units being sent as replacements/reinforcements will be of lower quality and lower reliability while the Ukrainians arms will be increasing in quality and quantity. There is a huge amount of supplies back up in Lviv, getting it to the guys at the front is the bottleneck right now. The Ukrainians are just now getting munitions that were sent weeks back, and with recent well-publicized efforts to resupply they can expend those without worrying about replacements (except for aircraft). 

 

Yes, it is heartbreaking to watch the coverage of victims and refugees, yes there is a reflexive impulse to deal to stop the horror, but that is something Pooty & Co. are counting on, that the West doesn't have the guts to play hard and will flinch before they are forced to. Thankfully guts are something on display from the Ukrainians, they have captured the attention and hearts of the world.