Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[visionary]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[visionary]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[FrFan]

 

Shame on Nestlé, Groupe Mulliez (Auchan, Decathlon, Leroy Merlin, ...) +€80 billions income

Edited March 20, 2022 by FrFan

[spjunkies]

 

 

[visionary]

 

[Larry]

31 minutes ago, visionary said:

 

 

Farmers gonna step it up.   

[RansomthePasserby]

37 minutes ago, visionary said:

 

This is actually very important. Ukraine exports a significant amount of food around the globe. We could see high food prices and shortages in many countries, especially developing countries, if their planting season is disrupted.

 

The consequences of this war could reach far beyond Ukraine. Reason #75398 why Russia is an asshole.

[Renegade7]

15 minutes ago, RansomthePasserby said:

This is actually very important. Ukraine exports a significant amount of food around the globe. We could see high food prices and shortages in many countries, especially developing countries, if their planting season is disrupted.

 

The consequences of this war could reach far beyond Ukraine. Reason #75398 why Russia is an asshole.

 

Yea, I haven't seen anything good about this since it first came up. 

 

Ukraine is easily a top 5 exporter of wheat, and take a wild guess who #1 is 😒

 

Spoiler

The country invading them

 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

Long term impacts of this war are gonna be brain drain out of russia.. literally in case of all the generals they’ve lost, and figuratively in the case of all the businessmen and scientists who will try to leave the country….

[Wildbunny]

14 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Yea, I haven't seen anything good about this since it first came up. 

 

Ukraine is easily a top 5 exporter of wheat, and take a wild guess who #1 is 😒

 

IIRC, Russia + Ukraine (they are 3 or 4) = 1/3 of wheat global exportation. So that's gonna be a lot less around the world.

It's gonna be apretty huge mess in the upcoming months.

 

And people starving is not good at all of the world as well as this simple fact could also lead to WW3.

 

Which should leads us into taking serious action fast and quick to settle this mess so things can go back to normal and the situation doesn't get worse.

[visionary]

 

[Larry]

I'm not sure I want things to "go back to normal". 
 

A big part of why this is happening is the belief by Putin (a belief fostered by history) that he can just ratchet down the war crimes a notch, and things will be "back to normal" in a few months. 
 

Frankly, he's already lost. And knows it. All he's doing now is just ****ing things up because he's mad. And because he figures it won't cost him. 
 

It needs to cost him. And it needs to cost his country. And the cost needs to be bigger than Ukraine's cost. 
 

For next moves, I'm thinking:  

 

1). An announcement by Biden. Russia has lost. They may halt all offensive operations effective immediately, and begin withdrawing. Or (maybe "and"), the sanctions will remain in place until Russia has repaired the damage they've done. 
 

2). Begin deploying thousands of US troops, and equipment, to the Polish border with Ukraine, for a "training exercise". 

[FrFan]

1 hour ago, Larry said:

 

Farmers gonna step it up.   

 

Hail to the Farmers ,  Hell to the russian soldiers

 

 

[Renegade7]

@Larry Russia cannot afford to rebuild Ukraine if the sanctions stay in place, and the agreement was to lift the sanctions added to end/prevent the war if they end their invasion and withdraw.

 

We should not move the goal post on them, from a principle standpoint, and the risk of them throwing their hands up that they'll never get the sanctions lifted and act like they having nothing to lose.

Edited March 19, 2022 by Renegade7

[LD0506]

23 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

@Larry Russia cannot afford to rebuild Ukraine if the sanctions stay in place, and the agreement was to lift the sanctions added to end/prevent the war if they end their invasion and withdraw.

 

We should not move the goal post on them, from a principle standpoint, and the risk of them throwing their hands up that they'll never get the sanctions lifted and act like they having nothing to lose.

 

Fair point, see Treaty of Versailles 1919

 

I would kinda be ok with announcing that all the seized yachts, villas, etc., would be auctioned off to pay for a Ukrainian rebuild

[Die Hard]

11 minutes ago, LD0506 said:

 

I would kinda be ok with announcing that all the seized yachts, villas, etc., would be auctioned off to pay for a Ukrainian rebuild

If that’s the cost of initiating and losing a war…. I’m not such it’s much of a deterrent. 
 

What a cost to the Ukraine people AND all the countries who have provided a ridiculous amount of lethal and humanitarian aid.

 

 

 

 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

You don’t want an uncontrolled collapse of the Russian government either. 
 

you just want the Russian government to be under enough pressure that it believes it’s best option is to end the war.

 

the only way they can believe that is that if they believe sanctions will be lessened if the stop the war. 
 

 

[LD0506]

1 minute ago, Die Hard said:

If that’s the cost of initiating and losing a war…. I’m not such it’s much of a deterrent. 
 

What a cost to the Ukraine people AND all the countries who have provided a ridiculous amount of lethal and humanitarian aid.

 

 

 

 

 

Just as a start, not the whole package.

 

In the long run I genuinely see the world pouring aid into Ukraine after this is all over to rebuild their country and Russia gets another **** around and find out example right in their faces of the true costs of not participating in the greater society of nations.

 

Russia has this xenophobic strain that has run through it since its inception, they have always longed for the progress others make while decrying the corrosive effect of foreigners. Doesn't matter which century you pick, doesn't matter if it was a tsar or the Politburo or the current kleptocracy, their insecurities about themselves and their place in the world have been bubbling up the whole time. A thousand years of PTSD, if you really want to point a finger at Patient Zero maybe the Golden Horde? Vikings? 'Twas ever thus. The big difference now is that Russians have been enabled to see the rest of the world for themselves, warts, wrinkles and all, and you cannot unring that bell. They were not part of the Renaissance or the Reformation or largely the industrial revolution so the sheer immensity of all the backstory catching up they have to do weighs on them. The history buff in me is largely sympathetic to the Russian people, a lot of them live little better than serfs. All they have is their history, and they drag it along like Marley's chains. 

 

We- the collective we of more than the west, more than Europe, the whole we need to make sure we don't blow the chance to help them evolve beyond that if the opportunity presents itself (the way we did in 90).

 

The world needs to start seeing itself as "the world" and not just these warring factions fighting for winner take all. There is a lot of really unhealthy "Ooooh, we get to try out the Javelins and Switchblades" talk in this country and it doesn't help at all. Russians subsist on a diet of lies, have some empathy, so do we. We all need to think outside the box, and the box here is a coffin.

[Cooked Crack]

 

[Die Hard]

22 minutes ago, LD0506 said:

We- the collective we of more than the west, more than Europe, the whole we need to make sure we don't blow the chance to help them evolve beyond that if the opportunity presents itself (the way we did in 90).

 

The world needs to start seeing itself as "the world" and not just these warring factions fighting for winner take all.

Hasn’t that all been the exercise post-Cold War? And yet here we are again. 
 

Unfortunately, it seems to be the end game. Insatiable egoic desire.

[Peregrine]

2 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

@Larry Russia cannot afford to rebuild Ukraine if the sanctions stay in place, and the agreement was to lift the sanctions added to end/prevent the war if they end their invasion and withdraw.

 

We should not move the goal post on them, from a principle standpoint, and the risk of them throwing their hands up that they'll never get the sanctions lifted and act like they having nothing to lose.

No, the sanctions were to tell Russia it needed to not invade, and then end the invasion immediately, and that the destruction caused by the sanctions would be based on how much destruction Russia caused.  

 

As Russia has decided to go further and further into this they blitzed past where those sanctions can be lifted for years.  Any letting Russia withdraw tomorrow, and then lifting the sanctions before it truly crippling the current Russian state would be selling out the entire world to a bleak future.  The rest of the world lacking backbone is the ONLY thing Putin is counting on at this point.

 

Russia as it currently exists, can no longer be part of this world.  Most everyone sees that.  Fail to cause major nation state change in the coming years in Russia and the world will most likely end up in a nuclear holocaust within a decade. Any people who would subject the world earth to the threat of complete destruction if they are not allowed to murder as many women and children as they like are not fit to be part of this earth and have no place here.

[Renegade7]

28 minutes ago, Peregrine said:

No, the sanctions were to tell Russia it needed to not invade, and then end the invasion immediately, and that the destruction caused by the sanctions would be based on how much destruction Russia caused.  

 

Show me the carfax on this one, please, because my understanding is these sanctions have been focused on deterring the invasion and doubled down to get Putin to end the invasion after he did it anyway (the sanctions would continue and grow based on how long Putin took to end his invasion)

 

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/16/1086835380/blinken-sets-a-standard-for-lifting-sanctions-an-irreversible-russian-withdrawal

 

Quote

Secretary of State Antony Blinken says that merely stopping the invasion of Ukraine may not be enough for Russia to gain relief from Western economic sanctions. The U.S. also wants an assurance that there will never be another such invasion.

In an interview with NPR, Blinken spoke of Western sanctions that cratered the Russian ruble, led global firms to shutter their Russian operations, and closed the Moscow stock market. He said the unplugging of much of Russia's economy from the West is beginning to wreak long-term effects that are "growing over time."

He insisted that U.S. sanctions against Russia are "not designed to be permanent," and that they could "go away" if Russia should change its behavior. But he said any Russian pullback would have to be, "in effect, irreversible," so that "this can't happen again, that Russia won't pick up and do exactly what it's doing in a year or two years or three years."

 

What I don't like about what Blinken is saying here is he's adding a "promise" that Russia won't invade Ukraine again.  Russia already made that "promise" when Ukraine gave up their nukes in the 90s.

 

28 minutes ago, Peregrine said:

As Russia has decided to go further and further into this they blitzed past where those sanctions can be lifted for years.  Any letting Russia withdraw tomorrow, and then lifting the sanctions before it truly crippling the current Russian state would be selling out the entire world to a bleak future.  The rest of the world lacking backbone is the ONLY thing Putin is counting on at this point.

 

It already has, the second the stock market opens, I'm not sure what else we can do outside of literally starving that country to death (which even trying will backfire)

 

28 minutes ago, Peregrine said:

 

Russia as it currently exists, can no longer be part of this world.  Most everyone sees that.  Fail to cause major nation state change in the coming years in Russia and the world will most likely end up in a nuclear holocaust within a decade. Any people who would subject the world earth to the threat of complete destruction if they are not allowed to murder as many women and children as they like are not fit to be part of this earth and have no place here.

 

You cannot jus get rid of the largest country on the planet, the third largest exporter of oil, largest exporter of wheat in the world, and one of the largest owners of nuclear weapons in the world.

 

There has to be an off-ramp here to at least an amicable relationship on the world stage, I don't believe we should try to permanently keep them in a place like where we have North Korea right now or keeping sanctions in place after the withdrawl from Ukraine to force a regime change.

 

You think oil prices are high, wait until there's a possible global food shortage.  Have to stay pragmatic here and not bite off more then we can chew.

 

China is more of a threat to the rest of the world then Russia wishes it was, they also need an off-ramp should we come after them, too, for things like their genocide of the Uyghurs and building up to invade Taiwan.

Edited March 19, 2022 by Renegade7

[Wildbunny]

3 hours ago, Larry said:

I'm not sure I want things to "go back to normal". 

By normal, I mean "no war".

7 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

You think oil prices are high, wait until there's a possible global food shortage.

That one scares me. It'll be early covid, just worse. If that happens, you can forget alliances and such, it'll be mainly FFA. And stealing food from other countries will be fair game.

[Larry]

2 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

We should not move the goal post on them, from a principle standpoint, and the risk of them throwing their hands up that they'll never get the sanctions lifted and act like they having nothing to lose.

Why not?  If we don't "move the goalposts", then this last week of war crimes had zero cost. 
 

If they were occupying Kiev, his negotiating position would change. So how come it can't change when he's losing?  

[Renegade7]

4 minutes ago, Wildbunny said:

 

That one scares me. It'll be early covid, just worse. If that happens, you can forget alliances and such, it'll be mainly FFA. And stealing food from other countries will be fair game.

 

Every country, especially us, has to have the conversation now about stop panic buying if it comes to that.  It took way too long for retailers like Costco to do that, and I think we in the US are afraid to do that for gas right now.

 

Biden seems to realize a lot of country is seeing through the BS of rising prices beyond necessity in this country and attacking it directly.  If this does drag into the growing season for Ukraine and Russia, he has to keep it up and also double down to protect us.