The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[SoCalSkins]

2 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

Interesting, I didn't realize people have Caleb ahead of Lawrence, I would have figured Lawrence #1, Caleb #2, Bryce Young at 5 since '12 seems a touch weird, I tend to think Tua pre injury was ahead of Young, but maybe that's part of it. Mahomes was never rated as highly as people like to imagine today, but he also wasn't as low as some suggest, I don't remember anyone thinking he would last into round 2 or 3 like he mentioned recently. 

Rick Spielman who was hired to consult on our head coach search has him ranked higher than Peyton Manning. 
 

 

[alaroche04]

Drake Maye throwing to Nabers and BTJr...he would have won the Heisman easily.

[DogofWar1]

2 hours ago, Destino said:

Highlights like these do not impress me for QBs. It’s damned impressive for big recoevers showing off their speed, but Daniels is staring at his receiver and doesn’t throw it until his target runs by his man. All from a perfect pocket.

 

So that play is kinda a wash, in that I think you should get that result when the defense gives you that, but I do think you have to do some good things to get there too.

 

From the Kurt video, he's pretty high on this play, probably too high: https://youtu.be/EJIRqnMmXOw?si=N5sdJCfNz3wDkQyS&t=145 (link to 2:25 in the video where he looks at this play)

 

Ultimately, the moment the top safety rolls down towards the LoS it's over, unless the other guy across the field completely goes towards Nabers (but then it's the same play but to the other WR).  When the ball is snapped, the safety from up top takes a BIG ole step forward, and Nabers is already past him.  This means it's one-on-one since the double team went to the other WR and there's no reason not to think Nabers isn't gonna blast past this guy.  Nabers a top 10 pick in the draft probably, and we can hold that against Daniels but there's also value in your QB knowing how good his guys are (*points to how underutilized Scary Terry was for much of last year*).

 

So while he might "stare" Nabers down, I wouldn't dock him for that if we assume he saw the safety moving up, which he probably did.  He knows that's money, he doesn't need to look around a bunch.  He may have also noticed the double team on the other side but maybe maybe not.  So it's good in that he might be reading defenses, but also "neutral" in that he doesn't go through progressions or anything else we'd usually want a QB to do but he doesn't really need to here.

 

Also this play does help imo with the arm strength debate too, the ball travels to about the opposing 5-6 and he throws from roughly his own 47 so it goes about 47-48 yards through the air.  That's pretty good.  I hope we can get some velocity measurements on his throws at pro days or the combine, the knock on him is a lack of velocity but would be good to get some measurements.

 

Overall, it's kinda weird because we love to talk about taking what the defense gives you, but that's usually in the context of like 5 yard gains to shorter routes, not an over the top throw for a 50 yard TD.  But here that's basically what happened.  Safety comes down, and Nabers is gonna beat that guy, defense gave you a clean TD.  So he should get that, BUT he's still gotta do some nice stuff too.

 

Edited February 22 by DogofWar1

[DogofWar1]

Anybody know if this is at all accurate? https://www.ourlads.com/story/default/Quarterback-Ball-Velocity-at-NFL-Combine-2008-2017/10243/dh/

[Destino]

22 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

 

Also this play does help imo with the arm strength debate too, the ball travels to about the opposing 5-6 and he throws from roughly his own 47 so it goes about 47-48 yards through the air.  That's pretty good.  I hope we can get some velocity measurements on his throws at pro days or the combine, the knock on him is a lack of velocity but would be good to get some measurements.

 

Overall, it's kinda weird because we love to talk about taking what the defense gives you, but that's usually in the context of like 5 yard gains to shorter routes, not an over the top throw for a 50 yard TD.  But here that's basically what happened.  Safety comes down, and Nabers is gonna beat that guy, defense gave you a clean TD.  So he should get that, BUT he's still gotta do some nice stuff too.

 

I don’t think there is any debate that he can throw deep passes. Other than his ability to run that’s his strength. His deep balls tend to go a bit slower than ideal sometimes, and so there’s a question on how well he can drive the ball off platform, but he’s not a noodle armed QB.
 

That’s one of the things that stands out with Caleb Williams. The guy can be drifting laterally, with both feet off the ground, and fire off a lightning bolt. That young man has wild arm talent, even if we’ve seen harder throwers from the pocket. 

 

[FrFan]

16 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

Anybody know if this is at all accurate? https://www.ourlads.com/story/default/Quarterback-Ball-Velocity-at-NFL-Combine-2008-2017/10243/dh/

Mahomes Texas Tech 55 (Left) 55 (Right), Bulger has quite a different number. I don't know who's right though, what I believe is that speed means nothing without control.

Ball Velocity Is Bunk

 

 

[zCommander]

CJ and Sam almost same numbers

Year: 2022

Malik Willis Liberty 58 (Left) 58 (Right)

Sam Howell North Carolina 55 (Left) 56 (Right)

Carson Strong Nevada 55 (Left) 53 (Right)

Kenny Pickett Pittsburgh 54 (Left) 54 (Right)

Bailey Zappe Western Kentucky 54 (Left) 53 (Right)

Desmond Ridder Cincinnati 52 (Left) 52 (Right)

Brock Purdy Iowa State 52 (Left) 51 (Right)

 

Year: 2023

Stetson Bennett Georgia 58 (Left) 55 (Right)

Jake Haener Fresno State 56 (Left) 57 (Right)

Tyson Bagent Shepherd 56 (Left) 53 (Right)

Tanner McKee Stanford 55 (Left) 58 (Right)

Dorian Thompson-Robinson UCLA 55 (Left) 58 (Right)

CJ Stroud Ohio State 54 (Left) 56 (Right)

Clayton Tune Houston 53 (Left) 58 (Right)

Anthony Richardson Florida 53 (Left) 54 (Right)

Will Levis Kentucky 53 (Left) 53 (Right)

 

Edited February 22 by zCommander

[DogofWar1]

Velocity by itself is useless, but it's a specific complaint for Daniels so tryna get a baseline.  Looks like 54-55ish is good, with some outliers, IF that link is to be believed.

[SkinsFTW]

2 hours ago, DogofWar1 said:

Anybody know if this is at all accurate? https://www.ourlads.com/story/default/Quarterback-Ball-Velocity-at-NFL-Combine-2008-2017/10243/dh/

 

Josh Allen was 62/62. Insane, nobody else was even close.

[FootballZombie]

Maye gets a lot of cover for having pass catchers that drop a ton of balls, but part of that is very much self inflicted in my eyes. This guy throws a metric ton of wobbly passes.

 

His inconsistent mechanics, and reliance to throw off platform absolutely destroys his ability to throw consistent spirals. His tape is littered with passes that flutter thru the air, often time w/ velocity. He is simply asking more of his guys to pull those in when compared to somebody who delivers a "clean" ball with regularity.

 

When he is on platform, he can absolutely deliver those clean, catchable balls, but he is so often off platform or off angle with his wide assortment of jump passes, sidearms, cross body and push passes, that it depth charges his average baseline. 

 

I gotta imagine the improvement in consistent mechanics that Drake will have to undergo to improve his accuracy will help mitigate this issue as well, but until it is rectified, he will probably always be a "league leader"  per say in dropped passes simply because he make his guys jobs harder... Consistently catching rocket wobblers is an ask.

[FrFan]

2 hours ago, SkinsFTW said:

 

Josh Allen was 62/62. Insane, nobody else was even close.

Very impressive 62/62

I wished they would have clocked Elway's throws.

"On the first day of official practice as a freshman, John threw the ball so hard he broke the fingers of two of our wide receivers. Our coaches were joking that we might not have enough guys to get through the practice, let alone the season.

And the stories about the "Elway cross" are true, and the legend started at Stanford. Given the choice of catching John's passes with their fingers or their chest, receivers opted for their chest. The ball was thrown so hard the seams on the point of the ball would leave a cross imprinted on a receiver's chest. It became known as an Elway cross."

The hardest thrower ever may have been the Denver Broncos’ John Elway, who may have thrown in the rare category of above 60 mph. “They used to set the Jugs machines at 70 to 80 mph for us receivers to simulate John’s throws,” recalls Elway’s former receiver, Rod Smith.

[mac8887]

If we draft jayden daniels and keep Sam howell, we would have the qb with the longest neck in the league and the qb with the shortest neck in the league.

[Darrell Green Fan]

1 hour ago, FootballZombie said:

Maye gets a lot of cover for having pass catchers that drop a ton of balls, but part of that is very much self inflicted in my eyes. This guy throws a metric ton of wobbly passes.

 

His inconsistent mechanics, and reliance to throw off platform absolutely destroys his ability to throw consistent spirals. His tape is littered with passes that flutter thru the air, often time w/ velocity. He is simply asking more of his guys to pull those in when compared to somebody who delivers a "clean" ball with regularity.

 

When he is on platform, he can absolutely deliver those clean, catchable balls, but he is so often off platform or off angle with his wide assortment of jump passes, sidearms, cross body and push passes, that it depth charges his average baseline. 

 

I gotta imagine the improvement in consistent mechanics that Drake will have to undergo to improve his accuracy will help mitigate this issue as well, but until it is rectified, he will probably always be a "league leader"  per say in dropped passes simply because he make his guys jobs harder... Consistently catching rocket wobblers is an ask.

I will always be in the Maye camp but this is an interesting observation so thanks for this.  

[ThatNFLChick]

6 hours ago, alaroche04 said:

Drake Maye throwing to Nabers and BTJr...he would have won the Heisman easily.

 

He had someone who just broke the Colts rookie receiving record and played the 85th hardest schedule and still didn't win it in 2022.

 

This year he had a 1500 yard running back that was 1 of only 3 finalists for the Doak Walker award thats given to the best RB in the country plus Tez Walker. 

Edited February 22 by ThatNFLChick

[mac8887]

13 hours ago, Dah-Dee said:

FWIW (hint: NOTHING), I feel like the All-22 vid on Daniels (set aside an hour gah) was good stuff. Makes me reconsider my Maye leaning lol. Quick, somebody gimme the link to his All-22.

 

Holy crap does Daniels throw some pretty balls, so catchable. Lot of really good throws, some ropes, in the middle of the field too. I really like that the vid showed he's a good passer who can really run, rather than a runner who will throw; ton of his runs are scrambles after you can see him go through the reads, and it was nice to see him getting out of bounds on a lot of those. Daniels clearly wants to throw, and from the pocket if possible.

 

Bonus: Got to see a couple of Daniels slides. One of them even looked like a slide.

 

Super extra special bonus: Did not have to watch a single snap of that *#(+*!!!(*$) LSU defense.

 

I got the link in the last few pages here but I don't see it now, so here it is for any interested:

 

 

Jaydens release is so compact and quick. I sometimes worry about his arm strength being weaker than the other 2 but his release in so much quicker.  I'm sure in a pinch Jayden can wind up and really drive it in their if he had to.

 

I love how he goes through his reads so quick, in this video you can really see him look all the way from the right to the left and vice versa to find the right read, this is probably the biggest reason he is throwing to open guys, it's because he reads the field quickly and makes the right decision. 

 

He steps up in the pocket, which  I love. I'm guessing height might have something to do with this. To many times last year Sam would try to escape the pocket around the edge and end up running or spinning into big, drive killing sacks, because he'd lose so much yardage. You don't see that here with Jayden.

 

He throws a beautiful deep ball. And makes throws all over the field on time, into tight windows, and with anticipation. And is very accurate while doing so. He is just as good of a passer as he is a runner now, he has come a long way since playing at ASU.

 

His speed is a legit lethal weapon. On day 1 he will be the 2nd or 3rd best runner at the qb position, just behind Lamar, and right there with Justin Fields, better runner than fields in my opinion. 

 

The concerning thing with Daniels is his slight build in combination with the fact that once he starts scrambling, 80% of the time he is running, which will lead to him taking more hits, and while he hasn't suffered any major injuries, we have all seen some of the hits he's taken, and I don't care how strong your bones and ligaments are, or how lucky you are, eventually if you take to many big hits, you will get hurt. 

 

If he can learn to protect himself better, and can throw more on the run, instead of running it himself, which I'm sure he will, the coaches will harp on this, than this is the guy we should get if we can't get caleb williams. But I would be happy if the coaches pick drake maye as well and will cheer him on just the same.

 

 

 

Edited February 22 by mac8887

[Rolo Tomasie]

2 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

Maye gets a lot of cover for having pass catchers that drop a ton of balls, but part of that is very much self inflicted in my eyes. This guy throws a metric ton of wobbly passes.

 

His inconsistent mechanics, and reliance to throw off platform absolutely destroys his ability to throw consistent spirals. His tape is littered with passes that flutter thru the air, often time w/ velocity. He is simply asking more of his guys to pull those in when compared to somebody who delivers a "clean" ball with regularity.

 

When he is on platform, he can absolutely deliver those clean, catchable balls, but he is so often off platform or off angle with his wide assortment of jump passes, sidearms, cross body and push passes, that it depth charges his average baseline. 

 

I gotta imagine the improvement in consistent mechanics that Drake will have to undergo to improve his accuracy will help mitigate this issue as well, but until it is rectified, he will probably always be a "league leader"  per say in dropped passes simply because he make his guys jobs harder... Consistently catching rocket wobblers is an ask.

What? My observation is the opposite. He throws a pretty consistent tight spiral all over. Generates a lot of spin. For all his faults, tight spirals are not any of them. Not sure that we are watching his same games. I've watched (checks notes) all of them. Only times I've seen a duck come out of his hand is when he was getting hit while throwing. 

Edited February 22 by Rolo Tomasie

[NOLA2DC]

7 hours ago, CapsSkins said:

 

I'd be happy with 6-7 wins, but the win total in Year 1 is a little less important to me than 1) the QB's performance/potential, 2) play-style, and 3) general culture around the team. Dan Campbell's Lions went 3-13-1 in his first year in 2021 and started off 0-10-1, but clearly they were building the foundation of something promising. That's the most important part IMO.

I agree over six would be great, especially if we can get a couple of signature wins against potential playoff teams. I'll also add finishing the year strong to the things you mention. 

[Skinsinparadise]

8 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

Maye gets a lot of cover for having pass catchers that drop a ton of balls, but part of that is very much self inflicted in my eyes. This guy throws a metric ton of wobbly passes.

 

His inconsistent mechanics, and reliance to throw off platform absolutely destroys his ability to throw consistent spirals. His tape is littered with passes that flutter thru the air, often time w/ velocity. He is simply asking more of his guys to pull those in when compared to somebody who delivers a "clean" ball with regularity.

 

When he is on platform, he can absolutely deliver those clean, catchable balls, but he is so often off platform or off angle with his wide assortment of jump passes, sidearms, cross body and push passes, that it depth charges his average baseline. 

 

I gotta imagine the improvement in consistent mechanics that Drake will have to undergo to improve his accuracy will help mitigate this issue as well, but until it is rectified, he will probably always be a "league leader"  per say in dropped passes simply because he make his guys jobs harder... Consistently catching rocket wobblers is an ask.

 

As for Maye. I don't think its so much to do with his reliance to throw off platform, its that he often was forced to do it to buy time either because his receivers weren't seperating or his protection was breaking down.   From my observation he throws a tight spiral.  But he also varies the speed on his throws.  That's part of the charm.  He puts touch on some throws and touch when it goes awry floats.

 

Some talk about his meh receivers.  Also not much of a TE either, Nesbit to me is just a guy.   Not much of a RB -- Brooks is just a guy.  Not much of an O line either.  Everything was on his plate so he tried to be Superman too much last year IMO. 

 

But I actually like that for NFL preperation.  He's just 21 and already has had to deal with name that obstacle.  New offensive coordinator.  What if your O line sucks?  What if you don't have a #1 receiver? Missing a stud TE?  Not much of a running game to take the burden off.  

 

He had one of the highest depth per target numbers in this group.  A large number of big time throws.  He also had statistically one of the least amount of time to throw the ball.

 

As I mentioned many times so I do agree with the point, off platform, when he drifts away from pressure, he's erratic as to his accuracy.   The weird thing abut him off platform though he has some killer throws, too as Longo mentioned the other day in Standig's article. 

 

His accuracy off the move completion percentage wise is just about the same as Caleb albiet obviously Caleb is more consistent and better off platform.  Caleb is special off platform.

 

 I'll give him that his inaccurate throws are often throwing away from the coverage.  In other words, they aren't balls that are easily picked off.  When you see him throw to WRs with a little daylight and he can sit in the pocket and throw his accuracy is mostly lethal. 

 

 

“Mechanically sound, accurate, very good ball placement, good anticipation, just enough athletic ability to be a run threat,” said one national scout who has been to Chapel Hill this fall. “And he’s not surrounded by a lot. Makes a lot with a little. If he was at Alabama (where Maye originally committed), they would be in the national championship hunt.”

 

“Size, athleticism, like the arm, deep and intermediate accuracy, he’s really good in the pocket,” an AFC general manager said. “Very good athlete. Elite wiring. Very good at the second and third levels. He will guide the ball a little bit and you can clean up his feet. Really good player.”

 

...Former Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings GM Rick Spielman, who was the Bears director of pro personnel from 1997-99, has watched extensive tape of Maye and Williams in work he’s doing for The 33rd Team website, his CBS Sports podcast “With the First Pick” and SiriusXM.

“He had no help until (wide receiver) Tez Walker started playing,” said Spielman, noting the NCAA approved Walker’s eligibility earlier this month. “He’s got a poor offensive line. He doesn’t have the same weapons he had when he had Josh Downs (Indianapolis Colts) and Antoine Green (Detroit Lions) last year.

 

When he has time, he’s great. He’s getting his ass beat almost every other snap as they are struggling up front, and Miami got after him. His toughness to get up after some of the hits he takes, boy. He has a strong arm. He is athletic and can get outside of the pocket and do things. He is an accurate thrower on the move and he has more than enough deep strength and accuracy.

 

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2023/10/20/2024-nfl-draft-watch-how-qb-drake-maye-is-elevating-north-carolinas-profile-while-boosting-his-own-stock/

Edited February 22 by Skinsinparadise

[skinsfan66]

8 minutes ago, Rolo Tomasie said:

What? My observation is the opposite. He throws a pretty consistent tight spiral all over. Generates a lot of spin. For all his faults, tight spirals are not any of them. Not sure that we are watching his same games. I've watched (checks notes) all of them. Only times I've seen a duck come out of his hand is when he was getting hit while throwing. 

Tez Walker was ball dropping machine in the senior bowl practices, I think he could have hurt his stock bigtime. He was Maye's go to you would think just saying.

[HTTRDynasty]

 

[FootballZombie]

28 minutes ago, Rolo Tomasie said:

For all his faults, tight spirals are not any of the

 

When he's on platform, sure, I agree.

 

When he's off, its a free for all grab bag. And he is off platform a lot. Some are tight spirals, some are wibbly-wobblies, some are wounded ducks.

 

10 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

As for Maye. I don't think its so uch his reliance to throw off platform, its that he often was forced to do it to buy time either because his receivers weren't seperating or his protection was breaking down. 

 

I grant the "bad team" argument forcing him to do more than he should, but at the same time I can't also grant him a free pass from what he has displayed.

Simply put he is off platform a lot, and that has consequences that are easy to identify.

 

In order to be successful in the NFL he has got to button up those mechanics and great deal from where he is right now.

[Rolo Tomasie]

I mean, this throw is straight SPUN:

 

 

Sure if he's falling over he's not gonna get the same spiral. Not sure any QBs except maybe Caleb would. Also, his left handed TD against Pitt wobbled a lot, if you want to criticize that.

[FootballZombie]

Just now, Rolo Tomasie said:

I mean, this throw is straight SPUN:

 

Indeed it was, but that is not the critique I am making.

 

5 minutes ago, Rolo Tomasie said:

Sure if he's falling over he's not gonna get the same spiral. Not sure any QBs except maybe Caleb would. Also, his left handed TD against Pitt wobbled a lot, if you want to criticize that.

 

That's the point.

He has an objectively high % of off platform throws.

 

I got no issue w/ his ability to spin it on platform. The problem stems from the amount of times he is actually on platform.

[NOLA2DC]

7 hours ago, alaroche04 said:

Drake Maye throwing to Nabers and BTJr...he would have won the Heisman easily.

That happens when you go to UNC for football instead of basketball. 😃

[Rolo Tomasie]

To me the bigger observation about Maye is to watch his film in 2022 and then watch 2023. You can't come away with any other observation than this: something got way more uncomfortable for him in 2023, even though he was no longer a RS Freshman. I think technical parts of his game got much stronger, but he looked much less comfortable and, to an extent, confident.

 

What was that?

 

It could be the new receivers, the new offense, the new offensive coordinator, or the new offensive line. Or all of the above. And he still had a strong year. But it wasn't just the stats that were slightly down, the look of his game film definitely screamed "uncomfortable" especially down the stretch.

 

Earlier in this thread I posted about observations that this UNC team was pretty poorly coached. They had a crazy amount of penalties all year long. Watch that Miami game - the penalties were ridiculous. They had other noteworthy lack of preparation events such as the NC State game where none of the UNC guys had on the right cleats and every one including Maye was slipping all over. Go watch the full game. They had receivers running wrong routes. The amount of holding penalties by the OL (numbers 61 and 65 in particular) all season long was startling.

 

Also earlier in this thread someone posted a stat that was fascinating to me - a measurement of variance of routes by WR, and it showed UNC receiver routes varied more than almost any other QB prospects did. This jives with my observations about what was going on with UNC at times this year. I think Maye was making anticipation throws towards spots that at times the receivers just were not going to.

 

I noticed Maye went through progressions LESS in 2023 then he did in 2022. I actually think the new OC, Lindsey, was pushing him to focus on making the throws Lindsey wanted rather than progressions. It will be too late to support our choice in the draft but I am curious to see what happens with UNC this season. I suspect that unless they get some incredible freshmen/transfers, their season could be very difficult and Mack Brown may be driven off into the sunset.

 

I am making excuses here for Maye, but don't get me wrong - I'm not one of these Maye or bust guys. I actually like Daniels A LOT and would be thrilled to have him next season. At times I am torn between the two. But I lean Maye because I don't think we have the full picture on how dysfunctional UNC may have been compared to LSU's functional (at least on offense). More than anything, I just want them to get this choice right.

 

 

Edited February 22 by Rolo Tomasie