The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Llevron]

4 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

 

Ultimately, it's Peters decision and I strongly suspect he has known who he is taking from the moment he accepted the GM job. He wants to look process oriented and confirm his due diligence, but the guy has been a scout for a long time and involved with the draft longer. Barring some crazy incident or 11th hour unpleasant news dropping, the pick has been made but he's not saying a word.

 

I think so too and it makes sense when you realize he choose us....the worst spot in the league who could literally ONLY offer the #2 pick. He knew then who he wanted to start this thing with. 

 

Which is why i think its Maye. But we will see. 

[DogofWar1]

Just now, Llevron said:

 

I feel like there isn't though. There were plenty of QBs on the good side of that list that were just not good. I will have to look at them again. But the definition of "success" in that list I feel like I had a major problem with. Talking about the P2S% in particular. I will give it credit for being steady from one playing field to another, and thats not nothing. Not sure exactly what it is, though.  

 

I mean, that's the reality of noise and stats, is one stat isn't enough.

 

If a team is just picking the guy with the lowest P2S they're gonna have a bad time.

 

But if you find say, 20 stats with positive historical correlations and some guy is on the good side of like 18 of them vs someone on the good side of like 8 of them, odds are pretty good the guy with 18 is gonna do better than the guy with 8.

[WashingtonRedWolves]

5 minutes ago, Llevron said:

 

I think so too and it makes sense when you realize he choose us....the worst spot in the league who could literally ONLY offer the #2 pick. He knew then who he wanted to start this thing with. 

 

Which is why i think its Maye. But we will see. 

Isn't that what we were just giving Snyder **** about, that he would make his decision on who he wants months prior to the actual draft then cover his ears without any real due diligence/analysis/weighing on the opinions of his scouts and other personnel?

[mistertim]

4 minutes ago, Llevron said:

 

I think so too and it makes sense when you realize he choose us....the worst spot in the league who could literally ONLY offer the #2 pick. He knew then who he wanted to start this thing with. 

 

Which is why i think its Maye. But we will see. 

 

I tend to agree, but at the same time I also think it's likely that as a scout he's done much more on Maye prior to this draft season than with Daniels. Maye has been considered a likely top pick for a couple of years now so it would make sense that he's watched him a lot, etc. With Daniels he probably knew of him and watched him casually, but as Daniels wasn't on anyone's radar before this past season, his analysis likely wasn't as deep.

 

So if he started the deep dive process for Daniels just this draft season and really liked him, then I could possibly see him being a bit more on the fence between the two. Just playing devil's advocate.

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I recall watching a little Daniels when I watching other prospects years back and what stuck in my head man is that dude fast.  I didn't really think much of it until this season when he blew up.    Is there a narrative for why he blew up this year?  Yeah its been posted to death.    You can believe it or not as for whether its meaningful.  But I know from other posts you don't seem to care much about context so I gather you wouldn't be a fan of combine interviews, narratives etc -- just stick to the numbers and ignore the rest.

 

 

My point on this is the following.  If his process is nonsense and stupid than he's grossly incompetent.  

 

 No one has figured out how to dicipher college QBs to the pros.  Some have theories.  But heck even the PFF guys have said their anayltics have failed them on QBs so they are spitballing as much as anyone.

 

Now if you make the case that your spitball is just as good as Peters spitball.  OK.  But if you are suggesting YOUR criteria is the criteria that the NFL should use -- then it comes off very much like you should be running a FO if you think at a minimum you found the criteria that these teams need to use and if they fail they fail but at minimum you know the formula is right and context be damned.  

 

The football outsiders guy anayltics lead him to Daniels being the better pick.  the PFF guys prefer Maye but they don't find picking Daniels crazy.  Sharp doesn't come off high on Maye, he was the first dude in a mock that I recall that dropped him out of the top 10.  So its not like the anaylitcs types are all rallying behind your take.

 

Very few people whether its draft media, anayltics types, leaks from scouts and coaches agree with you that this is a slam dunk decision and it has to be Maye to the extent that picking Daniels is crazy.

 

If I had to sum it up, just from my reading.

 

A. Coaches prefer Daniels

B.  Scouts-FO are mixed between the two but I get the vibe lean Daniels

C.  Some draft geeks say it should be Maye but Daniels wouldn't be crazy

D.  Some draft geeks say it should be Daniels but Maye wouldn't be crazy

E.  Some draft geeks say it should be one or the other and the alternative is crazy.

 

You are in category E.  I am in category C.  Very few people are in category E, I'd guess maybe 3% of so among my readings-tracking of draft takes, much of which I posted on this thread.  You are in the big time outlier category.  Doesn't mean the outlier can't end up right.  I've been in a big time outlier position on issues before but when i am going that far against the grain it at least crosses my mind that the masses maybe right and I might be wrong even when I stick to my guns.

 

No, it's not a case where I think my ideas are the right ones, I just think over the past several decades we've found a pile of different data points, of different factors that can clearly be associated with a higher risk of a player busting: like a player being an overrage draft prospect, a player not hitting those peak production seasons early, or a QB not really being asked and illustrating they can throw with anticipation, player frame's also matter, hand size, technically can even matter at the extreme ends of the spectrum etc. There's a ton of individual little bits of data little traits that really have outsized value.

 

*Not having the Danny Weurffel arm.

*Throwing with anticipation

*Processing

*Mental Make Up (First in last out, versus last in first out)

*Eating and drinking the game itself, (which can't be measured but people can tell the difference between a Michael Westbrook who did not love football, and a Steve Smith who absolutely obsessed about it). 

*Working through Progressions

 

You can go on and on, there are a bunch of them, loads and loads, and some that have really been relevant in recent busts have been "late in career big season disease (Zach Wilson and Pickett being classic examples)," not enough starts/reps (Trubisky, and for Maye a genuine issue), Processing (S2), throwing with anticipation into tight windows on the regular, I'm just repeating myself but I think what it really comes down to for me is simple:

 

For me Daniels hits a lot of checked boxes for future busts like Wilson, Pickett, Trubisky, RGIII etc...he hits A LOT of them.....and that for me lowers my interest in drafting him progressively as each box of "alarm bell trait" is checked.

 

For Maye for me:

He checks the "not enough starts" box.

He checks the 2nd year regression box.

He checks the pressure to sack ratio box. 

He checks the mechanics box which I undersell compared to others. 

For some he checks the accuracy concern box while others disagree.

 

The problem is, I don't care as much about #1 as long as they reach a threshold of two years as a starter and he does. The 2nd year regression box is one I largely ignore because I think it doesnt address the fact of graduations, and I have not ever noticed a pattern of players who regressed sucking, in fact Marino and more recently Howell, are two great examples of guys who were severely downgraded for final year Meh's, who ended up being tops in their draft class level talents and I'm sure there are plenty more examples. I am worried about Maye with the P2S, but Daniels is even worse, so its not a plus for Daniels, its just a minus for both. For mechanics, while I think the concerns are real for some, historically I see zero evidence at all that mechanics issues are prospect killers, indeed I find a huge percentage of the stud/HOF QB's over the past 25 years to have been guys with weird as hell mechanics who were criticized for it from Rivers to Rodgers to Mahomes to Herbert, I could literally go on forever talking about both how many guys were called mechanically wack, who ended up being HOF's, and or current mega studs, to examples of how some who hated their footwork or mechanics and others who were totally fine with it. As a result, I simply ignore it. If it bites me in the rear, so be it, but I'm not gonna worry about it, because when we do autopsy's of busts, I can't recall many if any, that were regarded as being ruined by their own inability to fix their mechanics. Hell even in the NBA I saw an exchange between Wizards fans about how loving MKG 12 years ago was stupid because of his broken shot, meanwhile, a year earlier "broken shot" Kawhi Leonard became the best or near best draftee of the entire decade. Sometimes it matters, sometimes it doesnt. 

 

That pretty much covers it, I don't really think this is very arguable, they both have holes, I think it's patently obvious the holes Daniels has are more closely associated with bust potential than those which Maye has which are more nebulous, other than P2S. That's why it seems obvious to me. 

 

Its not that I think I'm a genius or better at any of this. I'm clearly not, my QB hit rate ranges from suck to meh after all. It's that I've spent enough time watching QB's bust, and seeing what traits are correlated with busting to know what should be alarming. Its like looking at a used car before you buy it, and checking the maintenenance reports. Oooh, erratic oil changes, steering column replaced, ball bearing problems, ouch, blown gasket (the subaru special) at 85,000 instead of 100,000 miles: YIKES. There's a checklist of traits that really are associated with busting, and traits that sometimes matter and sometimes dont, and traits that dont seem sticky. Daniels just has more code red alarms, period. 

 

I think I've made plain, I don't know whose gonna hit. I have no idea, and my track record is erratic at best w/hitting on the guys I like. I can comb through them, but suffice it to say, I'm probably 35-45% on top 15-20 drafted QB's, maybe better, but my "oh he's a bust vibe, my danny nickels meter?" That, historically I'm about a 90% on, hell maybe 95% when it comes to (bust or just not what they had hoped for (think Tannehill)). 

 

Btw, I don't actually think I'm E. It's not that I think Daniels will bust and Maye will hit. I simply do not trust AT ALL my ability to evaluate who will be good or great. Period. It's that I think one of these guys has a much, much higher risk of just being a mega bust, or at best, a kind of Fields level, "oh ----, we need to draft a QB again," miss like Rosen and Nickels etc. Maye doesn't have that concern in my view. Looking at what he did w/that talent, from the second he stepped onto the field, with those traits? Its virtually impossible for me to believe he'll bust. He could disappoint, he could, and this is probably the best example, be what a former #1 I loved and was shocked at became, Jameis Winston. He could take all those tools and traits, and flash a big arm, and throw for big yards, and TD's, but also make a crapload of mistakes, and just never improve enough to be more than a big time YOLO idiot QB. That's his floor to me. A guy you can plug in who will make lots of stat accumulating performances, but will cause you to tear your hair out because he just makes too many dumb --- mistakes, and relies too much on his arm talent and his yolo attitude and not enough on that Brady quoted video from the offseason (which was him talking about how being great for him was about decision making" making the right play consistently every time, whether it be the short gainer, the long gainer, the throw away, not taking the sack etc). For me if Maye busts, its gonna be an overreliance on his physical tools and not enough happening between the ears problem. He'll work, but will it be a work smarter, not harder thing, or will it be a work longer, and dumber thing? I don't know.

 

And that's the gist to me, and it some ways, btw, it recommends Daniels. Because to me, the only thing worse than drafting a bust, like Zach Wilson, is drafting a Ryan Tannehill or a Jameis Winston, a guy good enough to get you to .4000, but not good enough to make you great, or bad enough to send you right back to the top of the draft like Bortles, Trubisky, Rosen, Nickels, Lance/Wilson were. So from that standpoint, the floor concern is bigger with Maye because its largely impossible for me to believe he'll be Zach Wilson out there, completing 11 of 31 for 78 yards and 3 picks. He's not gonna do that, if he goes wrong, it's gonna be more like 19-37-320-2-3. Like Jay Schreoder ball, but more accurate. 

 

Btw, I do pay some attention to narratives, and story, but it has to be reasonable and reliable. Like, Howell and Maye struggling at UNC? Everyone graduated and the talent their final year sucked. That's a narrative, but it's true and makes logical sense.

 

Otoh, if you're selling, "Daniels P2S ratio sucks, but if you look at the individual plays, you can see how the RB failed to pick up the blitzer here, and over there the TE went left instead of right" and I'm yeah, tuning it out because it's literally 5 years and like 5 dozen starts worth of crap data. If we wanted we could narrative out every crap play anyone made, this is a sport where anyone failing to execute their assignment can cause a cascade effect of failures after all, but eventually when you have half a decade worth of data and sample size, it is what it is right? I'm open to narrative to some degree, but it has to make sense. McLaurin caused me to reevaluate breakout age. Now, when I see a guy whose blowing up, like Leggette, I do wonder what the hell is happening? was he crowded out in the receiver room? Did his coaches focus on other players? What about the portal? There are things...I try to make money with dynasty, so what I am doing is prioritizing those bits of data that are more closely associated w/production after the jump to the NFL, but when I get weird things happening like McLaurin, I do rethink it: "Hey? Mega athlete, crowded WR with multiple day 1 and day 2 picks, McLaurin tested as a freak, maybe the coach was just a bit of an idiot in terms of depth chart, or just chose to use them this way because that produced the best on field results, but the NFL is another thing entirely and it will be different....."

 

So I don't know....

 

I keep going back and forth. I try to close my eyes and see whats the up and down of these guys, and I can see all of them busting and hitting in different ways....I do think there are a lot of universes where Daniels is just an elite athlete and good enough thrower, and maybe the processing thing is on point, and he just ends up a legit sort of poor mans wilson zone of production (7th-12th in the league), but I can also envision an RGIII injury nightmare very easily, a Pickett-took him too long angle, all of it. This post is too long lol but hopefully you get my points. More than anything, I just see Maye, JJ and Daniels as all relatively risky in different ways for different reasons, and JJ and Daniels as more risky, period, in terms of ceiling or upside, I think they all have potential of varying degrees, it's the floor worries, that push me to Maye, rather than an iron clad belief he'll hit and be a stud. At the end of the day, hit and be a stud, or hit and be at least league average, I'm similar with both of them (probably 40-45% stud, 55-70% stud or usable for Maye, and probably 30-40% stud and 45-50% usable for Daniels), but I also trust that bit least, it's more than "bust factor" where I'm more certain, with Maye probably at 20-30%, and Daniels at more 45-55% bust risk. 

 

[Conn]

I think I’d like to see what Peters does with the rest of the roster before I decide under which circumstances I’d fire him if this incoming QB pick busts, but that’s just me. 

[DiscoBob]

28 minutes ago, Llevron said:

 

I think so too and it makes sense when you realize he choose us....the worst spot in the league who could literally ONLY offer the #2 pick. He knew then who he wanted to start this thing with. 

 

Which is why i think its Maye. But we will see. 

 

I think you maye be right

[Rufus T Firefly]

13 minutes ago, DiscoBob said:

 

I think you maye be right

[The Consigliere]

21 minutes ago, Conn said:

I think I’d like to see what Peters does with the rest of the roster before I decide under which circumstances I’d fire him if this incoming QB pick busts, but that’s just me. 

Well, the donkeys drafted Tebow and Brock Lobster, both busts, the Niners drafted Lance and Purdy, 1 of the 2 busts, the patriots drafted Kingsbury, Cassel, and O'Connell. 

 

In fairness, none of those guys were taken early other than Lance, but there aren't really any signs that he's nailed this thing down and what kind of role he had for the draftees is open to question. 

 

I'd be tempted to can him, but I can understand why some people would think thats idiotic, especially since other than the QB piece, theres plenty of ammo he's very good at this (and in fairness, nobody is good at QB). 

[DogofWar1]

 

presented without comment

[redskinss]

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

 

Absolutely not.  If Peters and Quinn mess this up, they need to go.  They've been given the second overall pick in a QB class with at least two blue chippers, opportunites don't get better than this.

 

If it fails, we need to move on with a new regime and let them pick the next QB prospect.

 

So if they pick maye and Caleb turns out to be the only franchise quarterback of this draft you think they should be fired?

 

I respect your opinion very much but I think you're being a little hasty here.

 

Some patience is in order and we'll have to see how this and other drafts shake out over the next couple years before we can make any kind of rational decision on how this one pick should be judged.

[srtman04]

13 minutes ago, redskinss said:

 

So if they pick maye and Caleb turns out to be the only franchise quarterback of this draft you think they should be fired?

 

I respect your opinion very much but I think you're being a little hasty here.

 

Some patience is in order and we'll have to see how this and other drafts shake out over the next couple years before we can make any kind of rational decision on how this one pick should be judged.

 

Agreed.....we live in a society of instant gratification at all costs.   The NFL will not be sustainable IMHO if this mindset continues.    There's absolutely no way for an up and coming franchise to function based on unrealistic expectations.   

[Epochalypse]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=noXd1LlR2N4

 

Not sure how to do youtube vids correctly, but here's discussion on the top 6 QBs as ranked by Josh Norris and Hayden Winks.

 

At risk of spoiling, they have their top 4 as Caleb, Drake, JJ, then Jayden, and they explain why.

Edited April 12 by Epochalypse

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

You all keep saying that nobody has figured out quarterback evaluation, but you have one of the great QB evaluators of all time right here on this board. I haven’t been wrong yet. The only guy who I said was going to be good that isn’t (yet) is Sam Howell and I don’t think I was wrong about him. The problem is that I was evaluating Sam instead of evaluating the situation that he was stuck in. I still say he can be good. That one wasn’t my fault. That was Rivera’s fault.

Edited April 12 by Sacks 'n' Stuff

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

 

No, it's not a case where I think my ideas are the right ones, I just think over the past several decades we've found a pile of different data points, of different factors that can clearly be associated with a higher risk of a player busting: like a player being an overrage draft prospect, a player not hitting those peak production seasons early, or a QB not really being asked and illustrating they can throw with anticipation, player frame's also matter, hand size, technically can even matter at the extreme ends of the spectrum etc. There's a ton of individual little bits of data little traits that really have outsized value.

 

*Not having the Danny Weurffel arm.

*Throwing with anticipation

*Processing

*Mental Make Up (First in last out, versus last in first out)

*Eating and drinking the game itself, (which can't be measured but people can tell the difference between a Michael Westbrook who did not love football, and a Steve Smith who absolutely obsessed about it). 

*Working through Progressions

 

You can go on and on, there are a bunch of them, loads and loads, and some that have really been relevant in recent busts have been "late in career big season disease (Zach Wilson and Pickett being classic examples)," not enough starts/reps (Trubisky, and for Maye a genuine issue), Processing (S2), throwing with anticipation into tight windows on the regular, I'm just repeating myself but I think what it really comes down to for me is simple:

 

For me Daniels hits a lot of checked boxes for future busts like Wilson, Pickett, Trubisky, RGIII etc...he hits A LOT of them.....and that for me lowers my interest in drafting him progressively as each box of "alarm bell trait" is checked.

 

For Maye for me:

He checks the "not enough starts" box.

He checks the 2nd year regression box.

He checks the pressure to sack ratio box. 

He checks the mechanics box which I undersell compared to others. 

For some he checks the accuracy concern box while others disagree.

 

The problem is, I don't care as much about #1 as long as they reach a threshold of two years as a starter and he does. The 2nd year regression box is one I largely ignore because I think it doesnt address the fact of graduations, and I have not ever noticed a pattern of players who regressed sucking, in fact Marino and more recently Howell, are two great examples of guys who were severely downgraded for final year Meh's, who ended up being tops in their draft class level talents and I'm sure there are plenty more examples. I am worried about Maye with the P2S, but Daniels is even worse, so its not a plus for Daniels, its just a minus for both. For mechanics, while I think the concerns are real for some, historically I see zero evidence at all that mechanics issues are prospect killers, indeed I find a huge percentage of the stud/HOF QB's over the past 25 years to have been guys with weird as hell mechanics who were criticized for it from Rivers to Rodgers to Mahomes to Herbert, I could literally go on forever talking about both how many guys were called mechanically wack, who ended up being HOF's, and or current mega studs, to examples of how some who hated their footwork or mechanics and others who were totally fine with it. As a result, I simply ignore it. If it bites me in the rear, so be it, but I'm not gonna worry about it, because when we do autopsy's of busts, I can't recall many if any, that were regarded as being ruined by their own inability to fix their mechanics. Hell even in the NBA I saw an exchange between Wizards fans about how loving MKG 12 years ago was stupid because of his broken shot, meanwhile, a year earlier "broken shot" Kawhi Leonard became the best or near best draftee of the entire decade. Sometimes it matters, sometimes it doesnt. 

 

That pretty much covers it, I don't really think this is very arguable, they both have holes, I think it's patently obvious the holes Daniels has are more closely associated with bust potential than those which Maye has which are more nebulous, other than P2S. That's why it seems obvious to me. 

 

Its not that I think I'm a genius or better at any of this. I'm clearly not, my QB hit rate ranges from suck to meh after all. It's that I've spent enough time watching QB's bust, and seeing what traits are correlated with busting to know what should be alarming. Its like looking at a used car before you buy it, and checking the maintenenance reports. Oooh, erratic oil changes, steering column replaced, ball bearing problems, ouch, blown gasket (the subaru special) at 85,000 instead of 100,000 miles: YIKES. There's a checklist of traits that really are associated with busting, and traits that sometimes matter and sometimes dont, and traits that dont seem sticky. Daniels just has more code red alarms, period. 

 

I think I've made plain, I don't know whose gonna hit. I have no idea, and my track record is erratic at best w/hitting on the guys I like. I can comb through them, but suffice it to say, I'm probably 35-45% on top 15-20 drafted QB's, maybe better, but my "oh he's a bust vibe, my danny nickels meter?" That, historically I'm about a 90% on, hell maybe 95% when it comes to (bust or just not what they had hoped for (think Tannehill)). 

 

Btw, I don't actually think I'm E. It's not that I think Daniels will bust and Maye will hit. I simply do not trust AT ALL my ability to evaluate who will be good or great. Period. It's that I think one of these guys has a much, much higher risk of just being a mega bust, or at best, a kind of Fields level, "oh ----, we need to draft a QB again," miss like Rosen and Nickels etc. Maye doesn't have that concern in my view. Looking at what he did w/that talent, from the second he stepped onto the field, with those traits? Its virtually impossible for me to believe he'll bust. He could disappoint, he could, and this is probably the best example, be what a former #1 I loved and was shocked at became, Jameis Winston. He could take all those tools and traits, and flash a big arm, and throw for big yards, and TD's, but also make a crapload of mistakes, and just never improve enough to be more than a big time YOLO idiot QB. That's his floor to me. A guy you can plug in who will make lots of stat accumulating performances, but will cause you to tear your hair out because he just makes too many dumb --- mistakes, and relies too much on his arm talent and his yolo attitude and not enough on that Brady quoted video from the offseason (which was him talking about how being great for him was about decision making" making the right play consistently every time, whether it be the short gainer, the long gainer, the throw away, not taking the sack etc). For me if Maye busts, its gonna be an overreliance on his physical tools and not enough happening between the ears problem. He'll work, but will it be a work smarter, not harder thing, or will it be a work longer, and dumber thing? I don't know.

 

And that's the gist to me, and it some ways, btw, it recommends Daniels. Because to me, the only thing worse than drafting a bust, like Zach Wilson, is drafting a Ryan Tannehill or a Jameis Winston, a guy good enough to get you to .4000, but not good enough to make you great, or bad enough to send you right back to the top of the draft like Bortles, Trubisky, Rosen, Nickels, Lance/Wilson were. So from that standpoint, the floor concern is bigger with Maye because its largely impossible for me to believe he'll be Zach Wilson out there, completing 11 of 31 for 78 yards and 3 picks. He's not gonna do that, if he goes wrong, it's gonna be more like 19-37-320-2-3. Like Jay Schreoder ball, but more accurate. 

 

 

 

I keep going back and forth. I try to close my eyes and see whats the up and down of these guys, and I can see all of them busting and hitting in different ways....I do think there are a lot of universes where Daniels is just an elite athlete and good enough thrower, and maybe the processing thing is on point, and he just ends up a legit sort of poor mans wilson zone of production (7th-12th in the league), but I can also envision an RGIII injury nightmare very easily, a Pickett-took him too long angle, all of it. This post is too long lol but hopefully you get my points. More than anything, I just see Maye, JJ and Daniels as all relatively risky in different ways for different reasons, and JJ and Daniels as more risky, period, in terms of ceiling or upside, I think they all have potential of varying degrees, it's the floor worries, that push me to Maye, rather than an iron clad belief he'll hit and be a stud. At the end of the day, hit and be a stud, or hit and be at least league average, I'm similar with both of them (probably 40-45% stud, 55-70% stud or usable for Maye, and probably 30-40% stud and 45-50% usable for Daniels), but I also trust that bit least, it's more than "bust factor" where I'm more certain, with Maye probably at 20-30%, and Daniels at more 45-55% bust risk. 

 

 

OK but if you are suggesting there are criteria for Peters to focus on and if he's not he's nuts, it comes off like you feel like those variables are the variables which trump all.  And if they trump watching the player and factoring other variables and context then it comes off like you feel you got a strong formula and have doubts for anyone who doesn't follow it.

 

For me just watching these guys is a big part of the equation outside the numbers.  I get made fun of it here and there for trashing Darnold and being a bit harsh in doing so.  I did so with Rosen, too and I recall you debating me on that one.  And I trashed them after they were already in the NFL.    At that point I became more patient watching prospects and relying less about what I read about them and studying their stats.  Ditto as to Trubisky.  I studied them because they were trade baits or FA (in Trubisky's case) at the time for this team potentially.

 

I was down on all three for the same reason.  Decision making.  Came off like they didn't see the field.  So many dumb throws.  And I don't think they are dumb people but I gathered they are just not seeing it or processing enough.

 

Now bringing that to Maye and Daniels.  I watched a lot of Maye.  I know some question his decision making.  But to me his decision making looks fine.  I don't have any thoughts similar to Rosen-Darnold-Trubisky that he doesn't see the field.   It's just that he tries to force some throws.  And his accuracy is a bit inconsistent.  But I don't watch him thinking this dude really isn't seeing the field.

 

Now as to Daniels.  I've hit him for now throwing with anticipation.  And he does get stuck on his first read and hestiates too much for my liking.  But he also doesn't come off dumb or where he looks like he's not seeing the field.   He looks better to me than Darnold-Trubisky-Rosen did.  I like Maye better.  And yeah I'd like to see Daniels throw with anticipation but his ability to see the field I think is in play with me as a positive. 

 

I know some come off like Quinn is a bit off the mark about praising Daniels processing.  It's hard for me to tell from a layman's standpoint.  But from a layman's standpoint both Maye and Daniels come off to me as players who likely see the field well enough because for me at least I don't get those red flags vision-decision vibes watching them the same way I did for Rosen-Darnold-Trubisky.

 

Also, I was down on the draft thread on Haskins (RIP) before that draft because of his accuracy issues.  Haskins was a wizard with shallow crossers.  But a bit of a mess with everything else.  Now Maye gets hit the most for accuracy issues but to me its a bit overplayed.  He struggles with some throws in the flat and yeah those are mind numbing odd misses.  But if you watch all the throws, all three levels, out routes-in routes -- Maye's accuracy and decision making IMO is good.  

 

As for Daniels he gets dinged for not throwing off platform and making 2nd level throws.  I've dinged him for it myself.  But when watching him, he is accurate enough with 2nd level throws and throw off platform when he makes them.  He's more accurate than Maye on first level throws.  I think both are great for different reasons as to the deep ball.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39874845/what-dan-quinn-wants-quarterback

 

Quinn said seeing Daniels play against SEC defenses helped in his evaluation.

 

"Man, they have had concepts and looks and different things and Jayden has been able to really process things quickly," Quinn said.

Edited April 12 by Skinsinparadise

[The Consigliere]

3 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

You all keep saying that nobody has figured out quarterback evaluation, but you have one of the great QB evaluators of all time right here on this board. I haven’t been wrong yet. The only guy who I said was going to be good that isn’t (yet) is Sam Howell and I don’t think I was wrong about him. The problem is that I was evaluating Sam instead of evaluating the situation that he was stuck in. I still say he can be good. 

I like Sam a lot, truth be told, in a lot of ways I like him better than any QB in this class other than Maye and Williams, I just wish he was bigger, and better w/the whole pressure thing. I'd be shocked if Geno keeps the job, I'm probably being too unfair to Geno though, he finished 7th and 14th the past two years in QBR, might be a bit much to expect Howell to produce a top 10ish season in '24 if he was made starter, even considering they have a loaded playmaking room (Metcalf, JSN, Walker II, the other RB whose name I never remember). Will be interesting to see if he can win that gig. Geno can't really be cut until '25, so I wonder how they handle that, both QB's on the books through '25.

[SoCalSkins]

17 minutes ago, srtman04 said:

 

Agreed.....we live in a society of instant gratification at all costs.   The NFL will not be sustainable IMHO if this mindset continues.    There's absolutely no way for an up and coming franchise to function based on unrealistic expectations.   

You could have a coin flip contest with a NFL logo and 5 million people would tune in. The NFL will be sustainable far into the future.
 

In terms of instant gratification, there is also a balancing act. Too many teams fall for the sunk cost fallacy and refuse to accept they drafted poorly. Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Bryce Young and others are obvious busts. You will miss on QBs on other picks, moving on early is the more courageous and correct approach. Had we done that with Haskins, we would have picked Herbert. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

 

For me Daniels hits a lot of checked boxes for future busts like Wilson, Pickett, Trubisky, RGIII etc...he hits A LOT of them.....and that for me lowers my interest in drafting him progressively as each box of "alarm bell trait" is checked.

 

For Maye for me:

He checks the "not enough starts" box.

He checks the 2nd year regression box.

He checks the pressure to sack ratio box. 

He checks the mechanics box which I undersell compared to others. 

For some he checks the accuracy concern box while others disagree.

 

 

I'm curious how many negative boxes Caleb Williams checks. I'd say he checks all the ones for Maye except for "Not enough starts".

 

One box that might be more unchecked for Daniels and Maye vs checked for Williams is severity of sacks. They all get sacked loads, but when Williams does it's brutal, whereas Daniels and Maye often have less yardage lost and less fumbles.

 

I do find it interesting that analysts will cite positives for Caleb, but then use that same thing as a negative for other QB's. I swear, if Chicago wasn't so obviously hell bent on picking him at #1, the discourse around Caleb would be less "this is a perfect prospect that we should put on a pedestal and never question" and more "this is a fun draft that has lots of flawed but pretty talented prospects.

[CapsSkins]

 

[The Consigliere]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

OK but if you are suggesting there are criteria for Peters to focus on and if he's not he's nuts, he comes off like you feel like those variables are the variables which trump all.  And if they trump watching the player and factoring other variable and context then it comes off like you feel you got a strong formula and have doubts for anyone who doesn't follow it.

 

For me just watching these guys is a big part of the equation outside the numbers.  I get made fun of it here and there for trashing Darnold and being a bit harsh in doing so.  I did so with Rosen, too and I recall you debating me on that one.  And I trashed them after they were already in the NFL.    At that point I became more patient watching prospects and relying less about what I read about them and studying their stats.  Ditto as to Trubisky.  I studied them because they were trade baits or FA (in Trubisky case) at the time for this team potentially.

 

I was doing on al three for the same reason.  Decision making.  Came off like they didn't see the field.  So many dumb throws.  And I don't think they are dumb people but I gathered they are just not seeing it or processing enough.

 

Now bringing that to Maye and Daniels.  I watched a lot of Maye.  I know some question his decision making.  But to me his decision making looks fine.  I don't have any thoughts similar to Rosen-Darnold-Trubisky that he doesn't see the field.   It's just that he tries to force some throws.  And his accuracy is a bit inconsistent.  But I don't watch him thinking this dude really isn't seeing the field.

 

Now as to Daniels.  I've hit him for now throwing with anticipation.  And he does get stuck on his first read and hestiates too much for my liking.  But he also doesn't come off dumb or where he looks like he's not seeing the field.   He looks better to me than Darnold-Trubisky-Rosen did.  I like Maye better.  And yeah I'd like to see Daniels throw with anticipation but his ability to see the field I think is in play with me as a positive. 

 

I know some comes off like Quinn is a bit off the mark about Daniels processing.  It's hard for me to tell from a layman's standpoint.  But from a layman's standpoint both Maye and Daniels come off to me as players who likely see the field well enough because for me at least I don't get those red flags vision-decision vibes watching them the same way I did for Rosen-Darnold-Trubisky.

 

Also, I was down on the draft thread on Haskins (RIP) before that draft because of his accuracy issues.  Haskins was a wizard with shallow crosser.  But a bit of a mess with everything else.  Now Maye gets hit the most for accuracy issues but to me its a bit overplayed.  He struggles with some throws in the flat and yeah those are mind numbing misses.  But if you watch all the throws, all three levels, out routes-in routes -- Maye's accuracy and decision making IMO is good.  

 

As for Daniels he gets dinged for not throwing off platform and making 2nd level throws.  I've dinged him for it myself.  But when watching him, he is accurate enough with 2nd level throws and throw off platform when he makes them.  He's more accurate than Maye on first level throws.  I think both are great for different reasons as to the deep ball.

 

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39874845/what-dan-quinn-wants-quarterback

 

Quinn said seeing Daniels play against SEC defenses helped in his evaluation.

 

"Man, they have had concepts and looks and different things and Jayden has been able to really process things quickly," Quinn said.

The sense I got from most of the people looking at these guys is that they viewed Daniels, and Maye and Caleb (at least pre-rip them apart in spring mode), as better than any college QB's since '12 other than probably Burrow, and Lawrence. If that's so, youre probably right in liking them so much more than '18. As I've spoken to it before, '18 kind of aged a helluvalot like the '99 class but a touch better. McNown and Akili were mega busts from day 1, those regimes knew immediately they'd screwed up (McNown and Carson Strong are the only guys I ever saw live that had first round buzz, and neither looked remotely like it: McNown because his arm was ghastly, Strong because of the knees), Couch took a bit longer, McNabb was a clear hit, and Culpepper (my guy at the time) was a kinda hit kinda miss in the vein of Winston (he could play, but he never became good or great). In '18 Darnold was a mess until late his rookie season, Rosen looked awful as you say (I had my dashed hopes), Baker was saberhagen, and Allen and Lamar showed early they were legit. But I also think even at the time, what was interesting about that group was that they were all good QB's for different reasons, somewhat reminscent of this class. Baker had so many key metrics nailed down, was very accurate and a great leader, mental make up guy, Darnold was so good so young before tailing off a bit, Lamar was a freak, if not accurate enough, Allen was another freak and also not accurate, Rosen looked pretty, but wasn't as it turned out, I remember reading a great article with scout breakdowns in the fall of '17, and nobody agreed about anything. The lists scout to scout were always super different, oh, I found the article, it's been 7 years, its kind of funny looking at it in retrospect:

 

2018 NFL Draft Quarterback Rankings According to Scouts - Sports Illustrated

 

 

Anyway, thanks for your thoughtful response, I remain very unclear on how to feel if we take Daniels. I absolutely do not want him, but I am torn on if I'm being too harsh about his basic level ability to be a legit QB in the league. I'm not sure if I'm being too harsh...but thus far, I have a hard time seeing why the bulk of the warning signs arent signficant concerns. We'll see. I hope you're right, you're definitely better at picking hits than me after all, but I know I'm damn good at sniffing out busts....hope I'm wrong, hope it's 2020/2004 all over again. What a dream that would be, to actually hit on a QB big time. 

[Rex Tomb]

Unlike previous years, Schefter has no idea what we’re going to do.  In the past, he had some kind of pipeline into the organization.  That stopped once AP got here.

[mistertim]

6 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

 

 

[CapsSkins]

I don't think Schefter knows who we're picking but I wonder why he's making such forward comments i.e. what's the agenda there? Could be carrying water for someone, could be getting bits and pieces of info from somewhere, etc.

[Skinsinparadise]

Schefter, isn't perfect but is far from a throw things against the wall type who just takes wild guesses and hopes to be right.

 

As one reporter explained the process on this recently, forget this team alone, for most teams its not the GM who talks or the HC but they are engaged with multiple people in the building.  Meetings with scouts among other things.  It's these other people who are often the leak

 

And for a GM for weeks of conversations with scouts ad employees in the FO to completely keep a leaning away from the people you are working with, isn't easy. And it might not even be that scout or personnel person directly but they talked to a pal in the business and the game of telephone is on. 

 

Guys like Schefter and Keim traditionally don't just trust one leak but if they start getting multiple leaks that changes things.  Schefter got into it some on Standig's podcast explaining how he waited for multiple confirmations about Harbaugh leaving Michigan during the off season.  They want multiple.

 

As tightlipped as they were on the coaching search, Keim knew enough to know that Quinn killed it in his interviews and that Ben Johnson isn't slam dunk.

 

Not saying these guys know.  But I'd bet money they aren't just taking a wild guess right now.  But both (Breer, too) are saying the decision isn't made.

 

But I don't take Schefter saying it will be Daniels on 5 different shows for a week straight because he has no idea but he's the type that rocks by taking wild guesses and hopes to get lucky.

Edited April 12 by Skinsinparadise

[redskinss]

Did anybody else notice the **** eating grin he was trying to cover up with his hand?

 

He knows that they all have us spinning like a top, I wouldn't call that comment trolling per se more just that he's having a little fun with us.