The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[mistertim]

To be fair, there are so many rando and sometimes off the wall takes in this thread that it's occasionally hard to discern between a joke post and a real one. Especially when it's coming from a newer member.

[Rolo Tomasie]

2 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Maye does go through progressions well. The problem is there were way too many times that after going through his progressions there was no one even close to open. Then hero ball came in. Another thing I noticed this year is once Tez became eligible he would focus on him as his first read for way too long. Because he literally had no one else to throw too. 

Another thing about Maye and his progression ability....he's 1) very good at reading defenses pre-snap,  and 2) a bit of a gunslinger in terms of his mentality. From what I see he can go through progressions when he wants to, it's on tape. But he does tend to see something pre-snap and be so confident in it that he wants to stick to it. In some cases it helped him when his expected guy breaks open late, but in other cases he sticks with it too long and it burns him.

[The Consigliere]

10 hours ago, skinsarethebest said:

and this is the same kind of logical fallacy that has people pining for Sam Howell…. Trying to prove a positive point with a negative…

 

”well, he didn’t have X so he could have been good if he did have X”….  That’s the most that can be proven: that the person COULD have been good.   Yet people mistakenly convert that COULD to an IS.  The reality is that even if he had a solid O Line and strong supporting cast, he also might not have had success.  We just do not know.

 

And yet they claim the evidence of Maye succeeding in the pros is somehow greater than the evidence supporting those who actually did succeed (even if it was with what some might say is a better O line and better receivers and supporting cast).
 

A lot of Commanders fans did it with Howell and now seem like they are doing it with Maye.   

 

In other words, if Maye had the same O line and receivers as Daniels, would he have put up the same numbers and won the Heisman?  We simply do not know.  It is by nature impossible to know.

 

But yet we want to say that non-knowledge is stronger evidence of his likelihood to succeed than the fact that Daniels actually DID succeed with the O line and supporting cast that he did have.  

 

Doesn’t make sense speaking purely from the point of view of logic.

Here's the thing though. The first time Maye stepped on the field as a starter, sophomore year, with the crap talent and horrid OL he turned in a top 10 QBR performance in all of college football. The first time Jayden Daniels stepped on the field as a 19 year old he ranked 55th in QBR. Hmmmm, not fair though, not close to like to like conditions. '20 was a covid year, and the Pac-12 didnt play a ton of games, so his age 20 year doesn't work, okay, we'll give him '21 instead when he was playing as a 21 year old, how'd he do in QBR compared with Maye? 

 

41st. 

 

Better talent, third year in college football, age 21 and 41st in QBR.

 

Maye, second year in college, age 20, and 10th in QBR in the nation, and significantly worse talent.

 

You know the funniest bit? 

 

Drake Maye's worst year, where he sucked, and regressed, and was awful, and Chris Simms says hell no? He tied Howell in terms of QBR rankings for a season, and remember, Howell's breakout season was the short sample size 2020. On top of that, Drake Maye's worst QBR final ranking was better than all of Daniels seasons, 2019, the shortened 2020, 2021, and 2022, save his fifth year. 

 

That's what's so funny to me.

 

If you rank the seasons of Daniels and Maye they come out like this:

1st: Jayden Daniels 5th year (5th as starter) Age 22 (1st in QBR)

2nd: Drake Maye's 2nd year (1st as starter) Age 20 (10th in QBR)

(Sam Howell 14th in QBR in covid shortened '20 season)

3rd: Drake Maye's 3rd year (2nd as starter) Age 21 (14th in QBR)

4th: Jayden Daniels 4th year (4th as starter) Age 21 (18th in QBR)

(Sam Howell 22nd in QBR in 2021)

5th: Jayden Daniels 3rd year (3rd as starter) Age 20 (41st in QBR)

 

Again, I feel like I'm taking crazy pills at times here. People should realize breakout age matters. The argument that he improved each year and got better and better is not the selling point some people think it is. With college prospects it's a near truism that the longer it takes you to impress at the college level the less likely you are to hit as a professional, period. The only reason that doesn't scare the hell out of me with Daniels, is that I don't think he was ever bad as a QB in college. I think he was always solid to good, but any great, breakout season in year 5 in college, is not the selling point people think it would be. It's infinitely more impressive to accomplish those things younger and has far more stickiness when it's done earlier on. The good news is, I don't think he was ever bad, or subpar, I just don't think he was very good or great until it largely became nonsense, as a selling point due to age/years in school. 

 

I mean, even if you didn't learn this lesson the decades before it was patently obvious, we literally just had yet another example two classes ago with Kenny Pickett, who was meh to solid to good for a few years, and then finally in his final year, blew the doors off. Comes into the pros, and yeah, it was bull----. Pickett was 73rd in QBR in '19, 64 in the covid '20 season and then exploded in his fifth college year with a top 9 QBR performance, 42 TD's, 7 picks, and he just got dumped two years after being picked inside the top 20, and there are an absolute litany of other old prospects who were mirage's just like him. 

 

This isn't a game, or a trend we should play around with. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[clskinsfan]

Great post @The Consigliere. And it is why I prefer Maye strongly. Where will Maye be two years from now when he is Daniels current age?

[DiscoBob]

29 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Here's the thing though. The first time Maye stepped on the field as a starter, sophomore year, with the crap talent and horrid OL he turned in a top 10 QBR performance in all of college football. The first time Jayden Daniels stepped on the field as a 19 year old he ranked 55th in QBR. Hmmmm, not fair though, not close to like to like conditions. '20 was a covid year, and the Pac-12 didnt play a ton of games, so his age 20 year doesn't work, okay, we'll give him '21 instead when he was playing as a 21 year old, how'd he do in QBR compared with Maye? 

 

41st. 

 

Better talent, third year in college football, age 21 and 41st in QBR.

 

Maye, second year in college, age 20, and 10th in QBR in the nation, and significantly worse talent.

 

You know the funniest bit? 

 

Drake Maye's worst year, where he sucked, and regressed, and was awful, and Chris Simms says hell no? He tied Howell in terms of QBR rankings for a season, and remember, Howell's breakout season was the short sample size 2020. On top of that, Drake Maye's worst QBR final ranking was better than all of Daniels seasons, 2019, the shortened 2020, 2021, and 2022, save his fifth year. 

 

That's what's so funny to me.

 

If you rank the seasons of Daniels and Maye they come out like this:

1st: Jayden Daniels 5th year (5th as starter) Age 22 (1st in QBR)

2nd: Drake Maye's 2nd year (1st as starter) Age 20 (10th in QBR)

(Sam Howell 14th in QBR in covid shortened '20 season)

3rd: Drake Maye's 3rd year (2nd as starter) Age 21 (14th in QBR)

4th: Jayden Daniels 4th year (4th as starter) Age 21 (18th in QBR)

(Sam Howell 22nd in QBR in 2021)

5th: Jayden Daniels 3rd year (3rd as starter) Age 20 (41st in QBR)

 

Again, I feel like I'm taking crazy pills at times here. People should realize breakout age matters. The argument that he improved each year and got better and better is not the selling point some people think it is. With college prospects it's a near truism that the longer it takes you to impress at the college level the less likely you are to hit as a professional, period. The only reason that doesn't scare the hell out of me with Daniels, is that I don't think he was ever bad as a QB in college. I think he was always solid to good, but any great, breakout season in year 5 in college, is not the selling point people think it would be. It's infinitely more impressive to accomplish those things younger and has far more stickiness when it's done earlier on. The good news is, I don't think he was ever bad, or subpar, I just don't think he was very good or great until it largely became nonsense, as a selling point due to age/years in school. 

 

I mean, even if you didn't learn this lesson the decades before it was patently obvious, we literally just had yet another example two classes ago with Kenny Pickett, who was meh to solid to good for a few years, and then finally in his final year, blew the doors off. Comes into the pros, and yeah, it was bull----. Pickett was 73rd in QBR in '19, 64 in the covid '20 season and then exploded in his fifth college year with a top 9 QBR performance, 42 TD's, 7 picks, and he just got dumped two years after being picked inside the top 20, and there are an absolute litany of other old prospects who were mirage's just like him. 

 

This isn't a game, or a trend we should play around with. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Great post @The Consigliere. And it is why I prefer Maye strongly. Where will Maye be two years from now when he is Daniels current age?

 

Im on this train of thought too, I just don't ever have the energy for long posts.  

[clskinsfan]

Well I mean First Round Mock says Daniels is QB SIX in the draft. With a 3rd round grade. So we have to pass on him dont we?

 

 

[rockluc]

10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Well I mean First Round Mock says Daniels is QB SIX in the draft. With a 3rd round grade. So we have to pass on him dont we?

 

 

There’s at least a half dozen good reasons to pass on Daniels but that ain’t one of em. 

[skinsfan66]

7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

There has been plenty of talk about his thin frame and getting rammed a bit like a rag doll.  Disagree that its almost every time.  But sometimes when it did happen it looked brutal.

 

It's been posted plenty of times on this thread.

 The brutal hits were not the focus of the comments.  You were talking about him having wiggle and ways that could help him from your soccer time.  He has very good open field moves but in shorter space he is not very elusive overall like Lamar, Fields, Mahomes and that is were he takes those shots.

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 hour ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

An extra 2nd would be perfect here in that we trade two of 34/36/40 to move up for an OT like Fashanu and still have a remaining 2nd rounder to play with. Maybe that TE Sanders

 

 

Any added ammo in R2 or R3 would be amazing. I don't think we'll get it via trading off #2. It would take a real pipe-dream scenario for us to execute that properly. And even then, we actually face a situation where we may have too many picks. Presuming you hit on most of your 2nds and 3rds, you'd have 6 guys coming up for new contracts from those rounds in 4 years. Sure, great problem to have, but we may opt to trade one of those early 2nds for future picks. 

 

1. We aren't gonna trade the pick until the Bears basically declare Caleb is their pick at #1

2. We aren't gonna trade the pick unless we are absolutely certain the Pats are taking the other guy or

3. We aren't gonna trade the pick unless we are a near coin-flip between 2 guys and are perfectly fine taking whoever NE doesn't take. 

 

In the 3rd point, we'd really need to get enough picks to take that decision out of our hands.

 

[Conn]

2 hours ago, Llevron said:

 

Yall couldn't tell this was a joke? Really lol 

I still don’t think he was joking lol 

[Llevron]

9 minutes ago, Conn said:

I still don’t think he was joking lol 

 

Gotta admit the longer it takes him/her to respond the more I am sweating. It would be my luck they quote me like 'NO I was dead ass serious and here is why!!' 

 

 

[jg77]

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

Here's the thing though. The first time Maye stepped on the field as a starter, sophomore year, with the crap talent and horrid OL he turned in a top 10 QBR performance in all of college football. The first time Jayden Daniels stepped on the field as a 19 year old he ranked 55th in QBR. Hmmmm, not fair though, not close to like to like conditions. '20 was a covid year, and the Pac-12 didnt play a ton of games, so his age 20 year doesn't work, okay, we'll give him '21 instead when he was playing as a 21 year old, how'd he do in QBR compared with Maye? 

 

 

 

 

Gotta love the set up here and you just glossed over the mess of a situation that Daniels was dealing with at ASU.  And I thought Josh Downs was pretty good so it's a bit of an exagerration on the crap talent imo.

 

[Warhead36]

Just now, jg77 said:

 

Gotta love the set up here and you just glossed over the mess of a situation that Daniels was dealing with at ASU.  And I thought Josh Downs was pretty good so it's a bit of an exagerration on the crap talent imo.

 

Downs was what a mid round pick last year? Daniels threw to not one but two WRs who are gonna be 1st rounders and a couple of his OL will be 1st rounders next year.

 

Its not even close to the same comparison.

[jg77]

3 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Downs was what a mid round pick last year? Daniels threw to not one but two WRs who are gonna be 1st rounders and a couple of his OL will be 1st rounders next year.

 

Its not even close to the same comparison.

He just had a really good rookie year.  Idc if the evaluators got it wrong...he can clearly play.

[Bantu]

JT O'Sullivan just dropped his 2024 draft QB rankings video on his YouTube channel and they are:

 

1. Williams

2. Daniels

3. McCarthy

4. Maye

5. Penix, Jr.

6. Nix

 

 

[SkinsFTW]

9 minutes ago, jg77 said:

 

Gotta love the set up here and you just glossed over the mess of a situation that Daniels was dealing with at ASU.  And I thought Josh Downs was pretty good so it's a bit of an exagerration on the crap talent imo.

 

 

Does it matter? Daniels 19-21yo seasons while at AZST were all far inferior to either of Maye's seasons.

[SoCalSkins]

24 minutes ago, jg77 said:

 

Gotta love the set up here and you just glossed over the mess of a situation that Daniels was dealing with at ASU.  And I thought Josh Downs was pretty good so it's a bit of an exagerration on the crap talent imo.

 

The situation at ASU was of his own making. Jayden and his mother were involved with the recruiting violations that were part of the reason numerous coaches got fired and went on record to throw his teammates under the bus in the press. He’s already proven to be a coach killer and locker room cancer. His increased use of social media recently is not a good sign of any improvement going forward. 

[Est.1974]

2 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

His increased use of social media recently is not a good sign……

Totally agree on this point

[Warhead36]

One thing I love about Maye. He has very limited social media presence or game. His IG is basically just him playing ball with a few posts with him and his friends and/or his girlfriend. 

 

Dude's kind of a dork lolol but in a good way. Your QB needs to be kinda sorda nerdy.

[jg77]

7 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

The situation at ASU was of his own making. Jayden and his mother were involved with the recruiting violations that were part of the reason numerous coaches got fired and went on record to throw his teammates under the bus in the press. He’s already proven to be a coach killer and locker room cancer. His increased use of social media recently is not a good sign of any improvement going forward. 

Going live with his teammates is a bad sign? 

[Warhead36]

Just now, jg77 said:

Going live with his teammates is a bad sign? 

Doesn't make him a bad person or anything, but I don't know going on social media and saying there is a team you like is kinda a bad look. How hard is it to just go with the cliche "I'll be happy to play for anyone, its a priviledge to play in the NFL" line you hear all the time? 

 

I don't need my QB to be a maverick.

[Est.1974]

2 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

 

Dude's kind of a dork lolol but in a good way. Your QB needs to be kinda sorda nerdy.

At last, finally some decent evaluation in this thread. About time.

[The Consigliere]

26 minutes ago, jg77 said:

 

Gotta love the set up here and you just glossed over the mess of a situation that Daniels was dealing with at ASU.  And I thought Josh Downs was pretty good so it's a bit of an exagerration on the crap talent imo.

 

Rachaad White, Eno Benjamin, Benjamin Aiyuk, Ricky Pearsall, solid enough team. I don't think it was a great situation, but it wasn't close to what Maye was dealing with. Daniels played with 4 top 40ish WR's, including 3 first round talents, and 1 top 10 guy. Maye had a WR that was considered a 3rd/4th round talent in Downs. That's part of the problem too. If you want to tell me, Josh Downs is an NFL level talent, I won't disagree, but he's not in the same universe of prospects as Aiyuk, Nabers and Thomas in particular, and to Pearsall to a lesser extent. He's fine, he can make an NFL roster, and play as a 3rd option. He aint a pro bowl talent, he aint elite, and he isn't good or very good. There's a reason people were drafting him in round 3 or 4 of dynasty league rookie drafts last year, and they'll take Nabers top 2 in QB leagues this year, that pretty much tells you.

 

As for glossing anything, I have no idea what was going on there, or why and don't care, what matters to me is that he was fine from the jump to pretty good, but it took him 5 years to be great. That's a borderline cross off to me before I even consider the other alarming issues, of which there are plenty. 

[jg77]

Just now, Warhead36 said:

Doesn't make him a bad person or anything, but I don't know going on social media and saying there is a team you like is kinda a bad look. How hard is it to just go with the cliche "I'll be happy to play for anyone, its a priviledge to play in the NFL" line you hear all the time? 

 

I don't need my QB to be a maverick.

He never said that.  Some twitter page posted that and some people are running w/ it in this thread.  Please provide a clip of him saying that...if I'm wrong.

[HigSkin]

Oh boy...